General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Brownie19]

Oh man... is there any way we can trade back for Teo? Lol

 

Give it a rest.

[Brownie19]

Our Outfield Defense is going to be f***ing atrocious if it’s primarily Gurriel, Springer, and Conforto. Gurriel probably plays RF in that scenario and he’s never even played RF before.

 

Um....that's why I suggested they still need to add a CFer? Also - Gurriel, Springer, Conforto is an improvement over our OF defense this past season (not that it would be ideal - although not the end of the world)

[The_DH]

 

Funny how this just released right after a complete washout Winter Meetings. That being said, I hope it's for real.

[Brownie19]

Funny how this just released right after a complete washout Winter Meetings.

 

yeah it's hilarious.

[The_DH]

yeah it's hilarious.

 

let me guess: you're so impressed with the winter meeting results that you're still shaking your head (like I am).

[Jays24]

 

Haha... our free agent signing is hoping our overpayment from the previous season earns his money.

[Jays24]

Give it a rest.

 

Nope... not until I see an improvement from him or at least an equivalent. While I hated his lack of hustle on defense, his bat was big for us.

 

Still a lot of time to do something but I'll be here bitching until we do lol.

[Captain_Obvious]

Nope... not until I see an improvement from him or at least an equivalent. While I hated his lack of hustle on defense, his bat was big for us.

 

Still a lot of time to do something but I'll be here bitching until we do lol.

 

How about a middle ground? Start bitching when we are a month away from ST?

[Jays24]

How about a middle ground? Start bitching when we are a month away from ST?

 

Deal lol.

[L54]

Kinda feels like you should decide and work on one or the other in the off-season. SP or RP. Seems unfair/fruitless to make him into a weapon in the middle of the season if he fails as a SP. Didn’t do much good last year

 

I mean clearly they decided. But I think he’d have more chance to succeed as an RP if he worked at that from the jump

 

I agree ideally you’d know exactly what role you’re going to fill but nothing about Kikuchi’s situation is ideal. The Jays lack starting depth so there’s no question he’s going to start the year as an SP. But if he fails as an SP again they might have no choice.

 

Can go from SP to RP mid season, a lot tougher to do RP to SP

[Horses Fart]

Funny how this just released right after a complete washout Winter Meetings. That being said, I hope it's for real.

 

Yeah Awful coincidence after the FO had a big s*** at the winter meetings.

[Stangstag]

Yeah Awful coincidence after the FO had a big s*** at the winter meetings.

 

Imagine how the Padres feel. Had the highest bid for 2 top free agents and both declined.

 

Im expecting the Padres to overpay big time on one of Rodon/Correa/Swanson

[G-Snarls]

Haha... our free agent signing is hoping our overpayment from the previous season earns his money.

 

Oh boy...

[Stangstag]

Imagine how the Padres feel. Had the highest bid for 2 top free agents and both declined.

 

Im expecting the Padres to overpay big time on one of Rodon/Correa/Swanson

 

This aged quite well

[connorp]

I agree ideally you’d know exactly what role you’re going to fill but nothing about Kikuchi’s situation is ideal. The Jays lack starting depth so there’s no question he’s going to start the year as an SP. But if he fails as an SP again they might have no choice.

 

Can go from SP to RP mid season, a lot tougher to do RP to SP

 

Unfortunately Pearson is the same thing.

[L54]

Unfortunately Pearson is the same thing.

 

They should just move him to the BP permanently and milk whatever they can from him

[Jimcanuck]

These contracts really raise the value of prospects. Also, was thinking about the inflation effect, but these deals go well beyond.

 

Maybe herd mentality gone berserk.

[Terminator]

I might be getting ahead of myself but it seems like extending Vlad or Bo is going to be really tough after an offseason like this. They are going to start making real money via arbitration, especially Vlad, and they only have 3 years to go until they can try for 12 year mega deals. I can't even fathom what extensions would look like at this point.

[Spanky99]

Deal lol.

 

Bull s***.

[Terminator]

Wakey wakey Ross. I hope you had your morning coffee because it’s time to make some trades.

 

I’d start by giving your gal down in Miami a call and seeing what she wants for Pablo Lopez. Based on your past trades with her she’s probably still interested in slap hitting infielders lol

[Sorrow]

Of all the contracts given out the only one I think I’d have been cool with the Jays doing is the Verlander one.

 

I wonder what a win is worth now. It seemed to stagnate around 8m a year for like a decade.

[gruber92]

Pearson's injuries have nothing to do with his arm

 

Pitchers use many more body parts when delivering a baseball outside of their pitching arm. Are you even serious with that comment?

[Jimcanuck]

Pitchers use many more body parts when delivering a baseball outside of their pitching arm. Are you even serious with that comment?

 

I sure am, mate. I had forgotten about the forearm flexor issue though.

 

His two most significant health issues have been a broken arm from a comebacker and pneumonia.

[Laika]

Of all the contracts given out the only one I think I’d have been cool with the Jays doing is the Verlander one.

 

I wonder what a win is worth now. It seemed to stagnate around 8m a year for like a decade.

 

The Aledmys Diaz deal made me think it’s finally at $10M

[Sorrow]

I'm starting to hope that instead of making a splash on Nimmo we do something more like sign Kiermaier to play CF and have Conforto brought in to play LF. Potentially some marginal upgrades on Teo with Conforto and KK in a full season likely out performs Gurriel. Worse offensively but much better defensively. I just can't imagine how much they would run.

[Laika]

I'm starting to hope that instead of making a splash on Nimmo we do something more like sign Kiermaier to play CF and have Conforto brought in to play LF. Potentially some marginal upgrades on Teo with Conforto and KK in a full season likely out performs Gurriel. Worse offensively but much better defensively. I just can't imagine how much they would run.

 

I think this is a way better plan than Nimmo

But the total AAV would be much higher

[Sorrow]

I think this is a way better plan than Nimmo

But the total AAV would be much higher

 

Most likely but you'd probably be able to do it over a shorter term. I know we have a fair amount of money coming off the books next year with Gurriel, Ryu, Chapman, Garcia and Bass among others all becoming FA so we'd have room for Nimmo and likely one of Vlad or Bichette as well. But we'll have a fair number of holes to potentially fill that maybe going shorter term with a higher AAV isn't an issue.

 

Shapiro seemed to hint that passing the CBT threshold isn't a concern for Rogers.

[Olerud363]

Perhaps I phrased it wrong. Walking a guy is “worse” simply because if you don’t walk the guy, even with good hitter, you have a 70-75% chance of getting them out. So a “free pass” as it’s called, in an undesirable outcome in most cases.

 

As for you examples, thereÂ’s nothing to spike to football with. So if a pitcher makes a mistake and leaves it in the zone, Judge kills it? But if he chases a pitch, he doesnÂ’t? Is there a Nobel Prize here maybe? Pitchers donÂ’t get to pick the exact spot where they place a ball. YouÂ’re not doing anything to break down the logic if you find yourself down 2-0 to Judge and nobody is behind him, you decide to stay careful, while if Alvarez is following, youÂ’re forced to challenge him

 

 

The 70-75% chance of getting guy out (when you don't walk him) includes chasing balls out of the zone, and soft contact or missing tough pitches at the edge of the zone.

 

If you challenge a good hitter it's more like only a 55% chance of getting him out. Good hitters hit .450 .450 1.000+ when challenged.

[Laika]

Most likely but you'd probably be able to do it over a shorter term. I know we have a fair amount of money coming off the books next year with Gurriel, Ryu, Chapman, Garcia and Bass among others all becoming FA so we'd have room for Nimmo and likely one of Vlad or Bichette as well. But we'll have a fair number of holes to potentially fill that maybe going shorter term with a higher AAV isn't an issue.

 

Shapiro seemed to hint that passing the CBT threshold isn't a concern for Rogers.

 

I'm thinking with some inflation on the projected deals...

 

Nimmo might be $22M AAV (over 5 years)

Kiermaier could be $12M AAV for 2 or 3 years

Conforto might be $15M for one year

 

So I guess not THAT much higher in AAV

 

Current depth chart:

 

Gurriel 1.9 WAR

Springer 4 WAR

Merrifield 1.3 WAR

Biggio and Lukes 0.6 WAR each

 

Interestingly, Steamer doesn't really love your idea. Because it likes Gurriel as much as Conforto. Same projected WAR. Bringing in Kiermaier would help a bit, and help in some ways that Steamer does not appreciate.

[wamco]

I see it more like 25 for Nimmo over 5 and 1/9 for KK.