General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Jimcanuck]

Reynolds isn’t a free agent until 2026. And is already very very good.

 

I know but the Jays still would prefer one of the d'backs IMO

[max silver]

Reynolds would be so sick. He might be the most underrated star in Baseball.

 

Is Reynolds really a star? He's had one season out of 4 where he managed to perform at that level.

[Spanky99]

2 years plus a vesting option based on IP would be as far as I would go.

 

And that's what he got, good call.

[wilko]

Heaney is a guy you sign for 1/9 or whatever coming off a down year, not a guy you sign for 3/45 after his successful 1-year contract ends.

 

He's not proven to be healthy a full season for a while. 3-4 years for a big question mark is not a good idea.

[Jonn]

Is Reynolds really a star? He's had one season out of 4 where he managed to perform at that level.

 

Have you seen the lineup he hits in. It’s amazing he’s put up the numbers he has.

[max silver]

Have you seen the lineup he hits in. It’s amazing he’s put up the numbers he has.

 

I just think the Pirates expect a return based on Reynold's 2021 numbers, and expecting him to be able to repeat that type of performance seems very unlikely.

[Sorrow]

Is Reynolds a 3.5 win player like 19/22 or a 6 win like 21. I'd say he falls into that 3.5 win area.

[Jimcanuck]

I just think the Pirates expect a return based on Reynold's 2021 numbers, and expecting him to be able to repeat that type of performance seems very unlikely.

 

It's a new Pirates FO that isn't dumb, I'm sure they think 2021 is the peak. They will move Reynolds for a realistic return.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Is Reynolds a 3.5 win player like 19/22 or a 6 win like 21. I'd say he falls into that 3.5 win area.

 

The Jays could use him either way.

[Brownie19]

Have you seen the lineup he hits in. It’s amazing he’s put up the numbers he has.

 

Protection matters does it?

[Jonn]

Protection matters does it?

 

It matters if you want to get things to hit generally. The Pirates lineup is embarrassing. And so far they added 2 Fat 1B/DH’s who both struggled last year to fix it.

[Brownie19]

It matters if you want to get things to hit generally. The Pirates lineup is embarrassing. And so far they added 2 Fat 1B/DH’s who both struggled last year to fix it.

 

I know that seems intuitive, but I believe there are studies that show this isn't true. Cherry picking, but Soto didn't suddenly get more to hit in SD this year after moving from a team with no hitters, to a team with a solid lineup.

[Carlos Danger]

I know that seems intuitive, but I believe there are studies that show this isn't true. Cherry picking, but Soto didn't suddenly get more to hit in SD this year after moving from a team with no hitters, to a team with a solid lineup.

 

All you need to do is talk to any MLB pitcher or manager about it. No need to nerd out on it. Heard it from the horses mouths for 40 years. Pitching around guys is a thing!

[Brownie19]

All you need to do is talk to any MLB pitcher or manager about it. No need to nerd out on it. Heard it from the horses mouths for 40 years. Pitching around guys is a thing!

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/5/19/8614817/lineup-protection-myth-reality-exists

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/players-view-does-lineup-protection-exist/

 

There's a couple of articles on it. I like this quote - "Lineup protection may or may not exist. Studies suggest it doesn’t, at least not statistically, but many within the game insist it does." I should trust that it exists because pitchers say it matters to them. However, the statistics suggest it doesn't actually have a major impact. Perhaps perception isn't reality. I don't think anyone should be heavy on one side of this discussion.

 

Suggesting "of course it does - these pitchers say it does, so it must" doesn't mean a lot to me as a lot of people also tell me that God exists.

[The Cats Ass]

I know that seems intuitive, but I believe there are studies that show this isn't true. Cherry picking, but Soto didn't suddenly get more to hit in SD this year after moving from a team with no hitters, to a team with a solid lineup.

 

Yes, he did. He received more fastballs and saw more pitches in the strike zone.

[Brownie19]

Yes, he did. He received more fastballs and saw more pitches in the strike zone.

 

ah - that's actually true. SSS then

 

Read the articles. It's not as cut and dry as you think - unless of course you also believe god is real.

[Stangstag]

The Jays could use him either way.

 

Yes of course, but his price will be that of a 6 WAR player… is it worth it? That’s the question

[The Cats Ass]

ah - that's actually true. SSS then

 

Read the articles. It's not as cut and dry as you think - unless of course you also believe god is real.

 

Could be small sample size, I'm not sure what something like Zone% stabilizes at. It jumped from 37.4% to 42.6%, which doesn't sound like much. But the 42.6% would be around the 26th highest rate, where 37.4% is the 4th lowest rate.

[Jimcanuck]

Yes of course, but his price will be that of a 6 WAR player… is it worth it? That’s the question

 

Why would the price be based on his career high 6 WAR and not the projected 4 WAR. Pirates ain't stupid.

[Stangstag]

Why would the price be based on his career high 6 WAR and not the projected 4 WAR. Pirates ain't stupid.

 

Just repeat that again.

 

But seriously, they hold the cards here and if they don’t get a haul they probably hold onto him.

[Jimcanuck]

Just repeat that again.

 

But seriously, they hold the cards here and if they don’t get a haul they probably hold onto him.

 

They have a new and smart FO.

[max silver]

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/5/19/8614817/lineup-protection-myth-reality-exists

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/players-view-does-lineup-protection-exist/

 

There's a couple of articles on it. I like this quote - "Lineup protection may or may not exist. Studies suggest it doesn’t, at least not statistically, but many within the game insist it does." I should trust that it exists because pitchers say it matters to them. However, the statistics suggest it doesn't actually have a major impact. Perhaps perception isn't reality. I don't think anyone should be heavy on one side of this discussion.

 

Suggesting "of course it does - these pitchers say it does, so it must" doesn't mean a lot to me as a lot of people also tell me that God exists.

 

I've seen article suggesting the concept of exponential offense, where essentially adding more good hitters to an already good lineup has the effect of leading to an offense that produces more than the sum of the parts suggests it should.

 

The exponential nature of offense means a good hitter in a good lineup is worth more than that same hitter in a bad lineup. On a good offense, that hitter is more likely to come to the plate with more runners on, more likely to get driven in once he’s on base. And, the lineup turns over more often, meaning he gets more plate appearances. Not only is he more valuable to a good lineup, but he’s even more valuable to a better one – the effect builds on itself.

 

https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-exponential-nature-of-offense/

[max silver]

The Jays could use him either way.

 

I question whether the prospect cost would ultimately be worth it. If it's true as suggested that the Pirates would have no interest in the Jays catchers it becomes very hard to envision a deal without either including Tiedemann or involving a third team. I've seen rumblings on the internet that Tiedemann could soon be baseball's best left handed starting prospect, and if he continues to dominate the minor leagues he will be arriving very soon. This guy is a keeper in my view.

[Olerud363]

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/5/19/8614817/lineup-protection-myth-reality-exists

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/players-view-does-lineup-protection-exist/

 

There's a couple of articles on it. I like this quote - "Lineup protection may or may not exist. Studies suggest it doesnÂ’t, at least not statistically, but many within the game insist it does." I should trust that it exists because pitchers say it matters to them. However, the statistics suggest it doesn't actually have a major impact. Perhaps perception isn't reality. I don't think anyone should be heavy on one side of this discussion.

 

Suggesting "of course it does - these pitchers say it does, so it must" doesn't mean a lot to me as a lot of people also tell me that God exists.

 

What about simple logic? What reason is there to ever pitch to a guy with any pitch sequence other than the one that scouting and data say is most likely to get him out?

 

Last year they pitched Guerrero tough and were more successful with him then 2021. Say Jays get Aaron Judge and put him behind Guerrero... why would pitchers change their approach to Guerrero from the 2022 approach (assuming it still worked) ? If they give Guerrero better pitches to hit maybe he hits .300 again with 40 homers. Wouldn't they want to keep Guerrero as a .270 hitter with 30 homers? Wouldn't they want use the pitching pattern that works?

 

Maybe for Juan Soto it's different because he walks so much. I don't know. Hypothetically let's say last year he had a bad year because pitchers discoveres some weaknesses, and he hit .240 .400 .440. Why change it even if he has a great hitter behind him? Giving him better pitches to hit might make Soto a .300 hitter with more power.

[connorp]

What about simple logic? What reason is there to ever pitch to a guy with any pitch sequence other than the one that scouting and data say is most likely to get him out?

 

Last year they pitched Guerrero tough and were more successful with him then 2021. Say Jays get Aaron Judge and put him behind Guerrero... why would pitchers change their approach to Guerrero from the 2022 approach (assuming it still worked) ? If they give Guerrero better pitches to hit maybe he hits .300 again with 40 homers. Wouldn't they want to keep Guerrero as a .270 hitter with 30 homers? Wouldn't they want use the pitching pattern that works?

 

Maybe for Juan Soto it's different because he walks so much. I don't know. Hypothetically let's say last year he had a bad year because pitchers discoveres some weaknesses, and he hit .240 .400 .440. Why change it even if he has a great hitter behind him? Giving him better pitches to hit might make Soto a .300 hitter with more power.

 

You answer your own question in there. You don’t want the guy taking a walk but if he’s not going to lay off the Balls, why throw him strikes. Ie Vlad

[Stangstag]

[Jonn]

 

Atkins would be wise to plunge his dick in those waters for a year. Baseballs version of hit it and quit it.

[Terminator]

Atkins would be wise to plunge his dick in those waters for a year. Baseballs version of hit it and quit it.

 

wat??

[Terminator]

 

Sounds like the Giants and Cubs are our main competition. I could see him playing for either if they outbid us but of the three we seem like the best fit for him as we are both a contender and have a good ballpark for him.

[The_DH]

 

Sounds like the Giants and Cubs are our main competition. I could see him playing for either if they outbid us but of the three we seem like the best fit for him as we are both a contender and have a good ballpark for him.

 

It makes sense for him but I'm sure part of his negotiations will be on where he appears in the batting order (or who's in front and who's behind him). The contracts are all one year and money can't be the issue. The ability to bounce back is the only real value.