General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Daniel Labude]

Perusing the 2022 WAR Leaderboards and thinking about value contribution/future contracts for this team.

 

- Semien at 2B has been worth the same WAR as a white hot Bo playing SS

 

- Elvis Andrus is worth more WAR than Vladdy's 3.1 (93rd) Goldy and Freeman have 7 each.

 

I think this ownership is going to more cautious given the Berrios/Kooch/Ryu/Roark value/$ so far. Gausman and Springer so far you could argue have been very good value, but the back end could be rough.

 

Do you really think a given season's WAR will play a factor into longterm contracts?

 

If so, is Soto only going to get a 7 year 200M contract?

[Jonn]

Do you really think a given season's WAR will play a factor into longterm contracts?

 

If so, is Soto only going to get a 7 year 200M contract?

 

It should for Vladdy. Not so much for Soto. Soto has done it multiple times. Vladdy has had one outlier season where he was amazing. Hes reverted back to pretty much exactly what he was in his first 2 seasons.

 

No doubt Vlad has hurt his value. Theres also the bad body issues that will also restrict the amount of years he will get.

[keggy]

If we have the financial flexibility, now might be the time for a classic Anthopoulos-style team friendly contract. Guerrero is basically begging for an extension coming off a down year.

[Jonn]

If we have the financial flexibility, now might be the time for a classic Anthopoulos-style team friendly contract. Guerrero is basically begging for an extension coming off a down year.

 

I would be fine with extending Vlad if its team friendly. Probably wouldn’t want to see anything longer than 6 years at the most though. We just don’t know how that body is going to age. For bodies like that 30 starts at 28.

[Daniel Labude]

It should for Vladdy. Not so much for Soto. Soto has done it multiple times. Vladdy has had one outlier season where he was amazing. Hes reverted back to pretty much exactly what he was in his first 2 seasons.

 

No doubt Vlad has hurt his value. Theres also the bad body issues that will also restrict the amount of years he will get.

 

You may want it to work that way to get a lower number, but thats not how it works

 

Last two season Vlad 9.4 WAR, Soto 10.7 WAR. Then look at how negative WAR is in general to 1B and that Vlad might be the best defensive 1B in baseball and 1 of the best hitters at 23. I get you all want the best deal possible, but thats how you lose out on stars at a young age. If there is a discount it will be mutual to sign Bo as well. It won't have anything to do with the fallacy of body type or this current season being the norm in your eyes

[Captain_Obvious]

You may want it to work that way to get a lower number, but thats not how it works

 

Last two season Vlad 9.4 WAR, Soto 10.7 WAR. Then look at how negative WAR is in general to 1B and that Vlad might be the best defensive 1B in baseball and 1 of the best hitters at 23. I get you all want the best deal possible, but thats how you lose out on stars at a young age. If there is a discount it will be mutual to sign Bo as well. It won't have anything to do with the fallacy of body type or this current season being the norm in your eyes

 

The only scenario where extending Vladdy makes sense is if Rogers Center had real grass and earth worms were Nazis. He would be a very good Nazi hunter.

[Omar]

The only scenario where extending Vladdy makes sense is if Rogers Center had real grass and earth worms were Nazis. He would be a very good Nazi hunter.

 

You don't want to extend Vladdy?

[Spanky99]

[Captain_Obvious]

You don't want to extend Vladdy?

 

Not at the prices being floated around. Too much risk for a fat ground ball machine.

[BigCecil]

Do you really think a given season's WAR will play a factor into longterm contracts?

 

If so, is Soto only going to get a 7 year 200M contract?

 

Soto's career wRC+ is 155 has been worth 23 WAR. Its 147 this yr.

 

Soto already has a ring and he can at least play the OF(sort of). Has a better body type. Better GB % and BB rate. The "fallacy" of body type? For real?

 

Vlad's had 1 great yr. One good (132 wRC+) and two below 110 wRC+. You are way over rating his D at 1B. Its been fine. Not great.

 

Are you really arguing WAR, as an indicator of overall value, isn't a major factor in determining long term contract term and AAV?

 

Also, we know what Soto has asked for not what he is going to get. Look at actual comparables in ATL and elsewhere. Tatis illustrates some of the risk in signing early massive long term deals.

[BigCecil]

You may want it to work that way to get a lower number, but thats not how it works

 

Last two season Vlad 9.4 WAR, Soto 10.7 WAR. Then look at how negative WAR is in general to 1B and that Vlad might be the best defensive 1B in baseball and 1 of the best hitters at 23. I get you all want the best deal possible, but thats how you lose out on stars at a young age. If there is a discount it will be mutual to sign Bo as well. It won't have anything to do with the fallacy of body type or this current season being the norm in your eyes

 

Where does the "mutual discount" thing come from for Bo and Vlad? Vlad at 8/170 ish makes sense. Riley terms might even make sense.

 

Bo and Semien have been worth equal WAR in '22 with Marcus at 2B and a down year offensively. Bo will be 25 at the start of next season, and I think you have to discount any deal for Bo to reflect he just may not be a viable long term SS option.

[jaysblue]

Feds announced that October 1st, all remaining COVID-19 border restrictions - mandatory vaccines, testing and quarantine for international travelers - will end.

 

So this won't be an issue if the Jays have home games during the Postseason. Players will be able to cross the border freely now.

[Jonn]

Feds announced that October 1st, all remaining COVID-19 border restrictions - mandatory vaccines, testing and quarantine for international travelers - will end.

 

So this won't be an issue if the Jays have home games during the Postseason. Players will be able to cross the border freely now.

 

Good it’s unfortunately 8 months late. So much summer business impacted this Summer. Especially down East. Definitely feel for those people.

[MON4NHLTOR4MLB]

If Yanks DFA Chapman, we have to be on that. I know he’s looked toast but compared to what we have, we gotta give it a shot. He gets anywhere close to back to effective and that would be massive in the back of the pen

[Grant77]

If Yanks DFA Chapman, we have to be on that. I know he’s looked toast but compared to what we have, we gotta give it a shot. He gets anywhere close to back to effective and that would be massive in the back of the pen

 

I don't think he would be eligible for the playoff roster.

[Daniel Labude]

Ignore or discount 2020, won't factor into contracts

 

Vlad and Soto are virtually equal in WAR last 2 years, Vlad is the better defender by far, but WAR doesn't reward that value because its terrible at capturing 1B value. Vlad is an comparable hitter to Soto. GB% is only 1% off for their careers and Vlad is a better runner with more SBs this year. Vlad with better power, speed, defense, production (RBIs and R), Vlad doesn't walk as much is the difference. Get use to the fact that it isn't going to be a discount unless Vlad and Bo and the team agree to it so both Vlad and Bo can sign long term (or room to sign others). It won't be because of the weight fallacy or misplaced recency bias from this year. What he is doing this year alone is worth 20-30M a year long term. What he did last year is 30M +. It won't be add up career WAR and give x amount per WAR

 

If you want to look at Riley's contract as comparable, it was super discounted because ATL had no more money it was pretty much the most he could get and stay with ATL.

 

Soto is going to get a crazy amount per year and Vlad will easily get a lot.

 

Vlad at 10/225-250M makes sense and should allow them to sign Bo, but maybe the team needs it lower. Vlad is worth 10/300M though

 

My whole point is people not wanting a 10 year contract because of Vlad's weight his rookie year means jack s***, wanting a lower contract because he is a 3 WAR player this year means jack s*** (at minimum avg last year and this year, true long term value probably in the middle closer to last season), people should also be aware of the issues WAR has in terms of defensive value at 1B and that a gold glove winning Vlad would negate that depreciated value by WAR contract wise. If there is a discount it will be because they are allowing room for more additions/signing Bo long term

 

Also we know what Soto turned down...not asked for

[Carlos Danger]

I cannot overstate again, how the fact that Bo and Vlad are MLB kids is going to hurt us.

 

Many of those long term extension were kids who were not from a wealthy background and wanted to lock themselves and their family into generational wealth. Long term security in case of injury, regression etc.

 

Bo and Vlad are rich kids and won’t have that need (risk vs reward analysis) for security.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Carlos Danger

[Laika]

I cannot overstate again how the fact that Bo and Vlad are MLB kids is going to hurt us.

 

Many of those long term extension were kids who were not from a wealthy background and wanted to lock themselves and their family into generational wealth, in case of injury, regression etc.

 

Bo and Vlad are rich kids and won’t have that need (risk vs reward analysis) for security.

 

Right

 

They also have something like... institutional/generational confidence. Their dads played until they were 36/37. These kids are not even entertaining the downside risks very much.

[glory]

Vlad will be a FA at age 26 going into his age 27 season. Bichette at age 27 going into his age 28 season. So on top of being sons of rich former MLB players, they also know they won't be old as f when they reach free agency. I still think the Jays end up signing/extending Vlad, and losing Bichette to free agency, but I'm basing that off nothing.

[jaysblue]

If Yanks DFA Chapman, we have to be on that. I know he’s looked toast but compared to what we have, we gotta give it a shot. He gets anywhere close to back to effective and that would be massive in the back of the pen

 

Maybe for 2023, though with how many games left in the regular season, not enough time to see if he figures things out in order to trust him in critical spots in a Postseason game. Also, like Grant77 said, he wouldn't be eligible for the playoff roster anyways.

 

If Chapman is available this offseason, he would be a great low risk/high reward signing.

[Jimcanuck]

I've read that the Dodgers are likely to cut Bellinger loose this offseason. He's a guy probably more likely to rebound than Aroldis.

[jaysblue]

All Vladdy and Bichette need to do in the last season before free agency is put together career years and they'll get a huge payday at their ages.

[jaysblue]

I've read that the Dodgers are likely to cut Bellinger loose this offseason. He's a guy probably more likely to rebound than Aroldis.

 

Left-handed OF bat with some pop. I would definitely roll the dice on him if he's not expensive.

[Grant77]

Left-handed OF bat with some pop. I would definitely roll the dice on him if he's not expensive.

 

Same here. Teo or Gurriel for a SP and adding Bellinger would be a nice series of moves.

[Grant77]

Whit Merrifield has a 227 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. Do you continue to give him regular at-bats when Espinal returns? I think I do. The playoff experience could be huge for us. I don't care what he's done up to this point.

[mphenhef]

If Yanks DFA Chapman, we have to be on that. I know he’s looked toast but compared to what we have, we gotta give it a shot. He gets anywhere close to back to effective and that would be massive in the back of the pen

 

The jays aren't bringing in someone with his domestic abuse record, I can assure you of that.

[mphenhef]

Whit Merrifield has a 227 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. Do you continue to give him regular at-bats when Espinal returns? I think I do. The playoff experience could be huge for us. I don't care what he's done up to this point.

 

He doesn't have any playoff experience.

[Jimcanuck]

Whit Merrifield has a 227 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. Do you continue to give him regular at-bats when Espinal returns? I think I do. The playoff experience could be huge for us. I don't care what he's done up to this point.

 

I think a Biggio - Merrifield 2B platoon is the way to go, going forward. Espinal supersub.

[Daniel Labude]

Whit Merrifield has a 227 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. Do you continue to give him regular at-bats when Espinal returns? I think I do. The playoff experience could be huge for us. I don't care what he's done up to this point.

 

Play the hot bat

[Omar]

Maybe for 2023, though with how many games left in the regular season, not enough time to see if he figures things out in order to trust him in critical spots in a Postseason game. Also, like Grant77 said, he wouldn't be eligible for the playoff roster anyways.

 

If Chapman is available this offseason, he would be a great low risk/high reward signing.

 

It would be the height of hypocrisy if the Jays picked up Chapman after unceremoniously cutting loose of Osuna.