General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[keggy]

According to the baseball reference list of most similar players to Vlad JR through age 22 they don't become hall of famers without exception. Though they all have good careers and 3 are hall of famers (if you include Miguel Cabrera as a certain hall of famer). Acuna still has his story to be told, Bellinger is probably a collapse, so maybe 3/9 became hall of famers.... 6 exceptions.

 

Hal Trosky (942.6)

Ronald Acuna Jr. (942.1)

Cody Bellinger (937.9)

Miguel Cabrera (935.5)

Greg Luzinski (934.9)

Boog Powell (933.5)

Eddie Murray (931.3) *

Juan Gonzalez (926.5)

Giancarlo Stanton (924.4)

Joe Medwick (920.9) *

 

Miguel Cabrera and Boog Powell are excellent comparables. A few others in my opinion are Jack Clark, Harmon Killebrew, Prince Fielder, and Gary Sheffield.

[Daniel Labude]

Posted this is another thread but thought its good here as well

 

[G-Snarls]

one of the mistakes people make is including Vlad in a group where he is by definition the worst. Like he just became the 10th youngest to hit 100 homeruns. Are the other 9 hall of famers? I can't remember. Some of them were of course, but Vlad is by definition the WORST of this group according to that criteria.

 

Curious to see a the top 20 players similar to Vlad, which means 10 better, 10 worse, with Vlad as the median, and what became of them all. 20 hall of famers?

 

Fastest players to 100 home runs:

 

Mel Ott

Tony Conigliaro

Eddie Matthews

Alex Rodruiguez

Anduw Jones

Miguel Cabrera

Johnny Bench

Juan Soto (TY Solaxys)

Bryce Harper

Vladdy

Edited September 16, 2022 by G-Snarls

[Solaxys]

Fastest players to 100 home runs:

 

Mel Ott

Tony Conigliaro

Eddie Matthews

Alex Rodruiguez

Anduw Jones

Miguel Cabrera

Johnny Bench

Bryce Harper

ONE MISSING - can't seem to find

Vladdy

 

Soto above Harper

[G-Snarls]

Soto above Harper

 

That's it, TY

[Solaxys]

Iunno, I might be in the minority here but I rather lock up Bo first, ahead of Vlad (though if both happen at the same time, fantastic)

 

He has such Doc vibes - silent, deadly/effective when on; excellent swing mechanics - eye will improve over time; breathes baseball.

The dude is like our very own Jeter/Turner; 2 back to back 5 WAR seasons at such a young age is kind of its own special (And to think the majority of it came in one month because he was in his head all f***ing year) even if you consider he is playing SS, and his defense is dragging him down (which might not as he keeps developing or he moves to 2B)

 

And, more importantly, we have jack all for true SS prospects in our farm

[Ehjays]

[BigCecil]

Players that do what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has done at this young of an age turn into Hall of Fame players, almost without exception. A couple months of average performance are not enough to make me forget what a special player this is. I don't hesitate if he asks for 10/300. I think it will be more than that.

 

Cmon. Bellinger, Yelich etc etc. Look at his body type. Mo, Prince, Pablo. Not saying he goes full Pablo or that he doesn't have another 2021 in him, but to even suggest that off 1 elite season it's a no brainer $300M, and his spot in Cooperstown is waiting for him is a bit much. There is a lot of risk. Especially juxtaposed against reasonable comparables of players of have similar offensive and better defensive profiles.

[Grant77]

Cmon. Bellinger, Yelich etc etc. Look at his body type. Mo, Prince, Pablo. Not saying he goes full Pablo or that he doesn't have another 2021 in him, but to even suggest that off 1 elite season it's a no brainer $300M, and his spot in Cooperstown is waiting for him is a bit much. There is a lot of risk. Especially juxtaposed against reasonable comparables of players of have similar offensive and better defensive profiles.

 

The Yelich comparison makes it seem like you didn't read what I said. He was 26 and 27 during his MVP level seasons. Bellinger also got started a couple of years older than Guerrero. Age makes a big difference when it comes to predictions, which is why I brought it up.

 

Your comparable for weight are also imperfect and don't really add anything to the conversation. Miguel Cabrera is the obvious comp and you didn't even mention him. What about Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, and Babe Ruth? His career path is not going to be defined by his previous weight.

 

We've seen many other lists like this, but look at the youngest players to hit 100 home runs, for example.

 

Mel Ott

Vladimir Guerrero Jr

Alex Rodriguez

Eddie Mathews

Bryce Harper

Andrew Jones

Johnny Bench

Miguel Cabrera

Tony Conigliaro

Albert Pujols

 

You'll get the same kind of list searching by any number of important indicators. I'm not saying he belongs in Cooperstown already or that MVP calibre players never regress. I'm saying that players who are this good at this age almost never fail to have Hall of Fame calibre careers. There's a big difference.

[keggy]

That's 70M/y (60 if you take their current salaries out) added to the payroll for 7 yrs!

 

In 2024, we'll need two starters, a 3B, a CF, and one corner OF (not many internal candidates ready for MLB in those positions; Tiedemann maybe will make an appearance if he continues to progress well; maybe White turns a corner); expecting a lot of relief pitchers internally coming up.

Kinda need some monetary flexibility to fill the gaps, esp with contracts for Gaus/Springer/Berrios (60+M among themselves) until 2026.

 

We need to address the elephant in the room which is that the team has burned through most of the financial flexibility we gained since our last competitive window. We have about $120 million in guaranteed salaries in 2023 (not counting arb). $75 million of that is allocated to Springer, Berrios, Kikuchi, Ryu, and Grichuk alone. For arb eligible players, guys like Bichette, Guerrero, Teoscar, and Romano are due for big raises.

 

Signing Guerrero to a lifetime mega-deal is already a risk from a performance perspective, but I honestly question if we even have the financial flexibility to fill the rest of holes on the team if Vlad starts making $35 million.

[John_Havok]

We need to address the elephant in the room …

 

We’ve been talking about Guerrero for the last like 10 pages…

[Laika]

We need to address the elephant in the room which is that the team has burned through most of the financial flexibility we gained since our last competitive window. We have about $120 million in guaranteed salaries in 2023 (not counting arb). $75 million of that is allocated to Springer, Berrios, Kikuchi, Ryu, and Grichuk alone. For arb eligible players, guys like Bichette, Guerrero, Teoscar, and Romano are due for big raises.

 

Signing Guerrero to a lifetime mega-deal is already a risk from a performance perspective, but I honestly question if we even have the financial flexibility to fill the rest of holes on the team if Vlad starts making $35 million.

 

Toronto still runs somewhat mediocre payrolls

 

They can and should continue to tick up

[Stangstag]

We need to address the elephant in the room which is that the team has burned through most of the financial flexibility we gained since our last competitive window. We have about $120 million in guaranteed salaries in 2023 (not counting arb). $75 million of that is allocated to Springer, Berrios, Kikuchi, Ryu, and Grichuk alone. For arb eligible players, guys like Bichette, Guerrero, Teoscar, and Romano are due for big raises.

 

Signing Guerrero to a lifetime mega-deal is already a risk from a performance perspective, but I honestly question if we even have the financial flexibility to fill the rest of holes on the team if Vlad starts making $35 million.

 

Wouldn’t be making 30 million right off the bat, usually these deals are structured where they ramp up after the free agent years kick in.

 

Also Ryu off the books after next year, Kikuchi the year after. Once Vlad’s salary goes up Springer will be nearing the end of his deal. The org could definitely do it.

[Masterbather]

So it looks like it IS an advantage having 10 games against the Orioles in September...just like we always knew it would be 🙂

[DigitalRock]

Rays list, mariners are losing, yanks tied, could be a perfect night

[Stangstag]

Rays list, mariners are losing, yanks tied, could be a perfect night

 

And it is!

[Olerud363]

The Yelich comparison makes it seem like you didn't read what I said. He was 26 and 27 during his MVP level seasons. Bellinger also got started a couple of years older than Guerrero. Age makes a big difference when it comes to predictions, which is why I brought it up.

 

Your comparable for weight are also imperfect and don't really add anything to the conversation. Miguel Cabrera is the obvious comp and you didn't even mention him. What about Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, and Babe Ruth? His career path is not going to be defined by his previous weight.

 

We've seen many other lists like this, but look at the youngest players to hit 100 home runs, for example.

 

Mel Ott

Vladimir Guerrero Jr

Alex Rodriguez

Eddie Mathews

Bryce Harper

Andrew Jones

Johnny Bench

Miguel Cabrera

Tony Conigliaro

Albert Pujols

 

You'll get the same kind of list searching by any number of important indicators. I'm not saying he belongs in Cooperstown already or that MVP calibre players never regress. I'm saying that players who are this good at this age almost never fail to have Hall of Fame calibre careers. There's a big difference.

 

lol. Of course Grant, the greatest cherry picker on this board provides a list for which Guerrero is by definition one of the worst. He was 9th or 10th youngest to get to 100, proper way to do this is to provide the list of top 20 youngest to get to 100 homeruns so Guerrero is the average.

 

In a previous post I gave Guerrero's top 10 comparables according to Baseball reference. Boog Powell is on the list, as was Bellinger. I think Mo Vaughn is a good one. Another guy John Olerud. Guerrero has more power obviously, but Olerud as a guy who started young, had a really big season but wasn't able to repeat it consistently (he repeated his top level season once).

 

Speaking of Bellinger notice Grant completely ignores him. Grant thinks people troll him. Not true at all. People just are stunned at his cherry picking and call him out.

 

If you did an honest job of finding Guerrero comparables you'd include the ones who didn't work out, make sure Guerrero is an average of any list, and probably find that most are good players, some collapse, many fade early, and maybe 1/4 make the hall of fame.

[Olerud363]

Speaking of Bellinger notice Grant completely ignores him. Grant thinks people troll him. Not true at all. People just are stunned at his cherry picking and call him out.

 

Actually he did mention Bellinger.... but Bellinger get's discounted because he was 20 months older than Guerrero when he started.

 

Note the classic Grant technique, it's OK to include guys who were younger then Guerrero on his lists, but not a bit older.

 

So every list Grant makes will be Guerrero and guys who were better by whatever criteria Grant is using, not Guerrero as the average of the list.

[Laika]

lol. Of course Grant, the greatest cherry picker on this board provides a list for which Guerrero is by definition one of the worst. He was 9th or 10th youngest to get to 100, proper way to do this is to provide the list of top 20 youngest to get to 100 homeruns so Guerrero is the average.

 

In a previous post I gave Guerrero's top 10 comparables according to Baseball reference. Boog Powell is on the list, as was Bellinger. I think Mo Vaughn is a good one. Another guy John Olerud. Guerrero has more power obviously, but Olerud as a guy who started young, had a really big season but wasn't able to repeat it consistently (he repeated his top level season once).

 

Speaking of Bellinger notice Grant completely ignores him. Grant thinks people troll him. Not true at all. People just are stunned at his cherry picking and call him out.

 

If you did an honest job of finding Guerrero comparables you'd include the ones who didn't work out, make sure Guerrero is an average of any list, and probably find that most are good players, some collapse, many fade early, and maybe 1/4 make the hall of fame.

 

You can also just look at a proper stat like WAR.

 

Guerrero’s WAR through age 23 is not going to look that impressive

[Grant77]

The list was on Sportsnet the other day and is a top 10. It's not some cherry picked creation of the top 17 players to hit opposite field home runs on Wednesdays.

[BigCecil]

The Yelich comparison makes it seem like you didn't read what I said. He was 26 and 27 during his MVP level seasons. Bellinger also got started a couple of years older than Guerrero. Age makes a big difference when it comes to predictions, which is why I brought it up.

 

Your comparable for weight are also imperfect and don't really add anything to the conversation. Miguel Cabrera is the obvious comp and you didn't even mention him. What about Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, and Babe Ruth? His career path is not going to be defined by his previous weight.

 

We've seen many other lists like this, but look at the youngest players to hit 100 home runs, for example.

 

Mel Ott

Vladimir Guerrero Jr

Alex Rodriguez

Eddie Mathews

Bryce Harper

Andrew Jones

Johnny Bench

Miguel Cabrera

Tony Conigliaro

Albert Pujols

 

You'll get the same kind of list searching by any number of important indicators. I'm not saying he belongs in Cooperstown already or that MVP calibre players never regress. I'm saying that players who are this good at this age almost never fail to have Hall of Fame calibre careers. There's a big difference.

 

Bellinger had put up 16 WAR by 23 and 1 elite season. Vlad by 23 has 9 WAR ok? Who gives a s*** about just 100 home runs? We are talking about overall value created = money and contract term and AAV. Early hitting success doesn't automatically = 10/300M and continued offensive success. Yelich was a little later...not that much. Wonder how they like that deal now?

 

Speaking of not adding to the conversation, Miggy is not a "obvious" comp as a 21-23 year old to Vlads body type LOL. I cant believe I have to explain this but Miggy didn't always look like he does now. Also Gywnn put on weight much later in his career. As did Puckett. They had already racked up consistently big numbers and frankly they are anomalies anyway. They also had D value.

 

Vlad is pillowy now. He has been since he was a kid in MTL, and its going to get harder for him to stay 240-250 each season. Your argument that ballooning in weight doesn't affect performance success probabilities is not a good one.

 

Soto's career wRC+ is 20 points higher than Vlad's. Thats a player who is more likely to be truly elite and possibly HOF player than Vlad, even with a tough '22.

 

You think in this video, early FLR Miggy is a "obvious" comp to Vlad's body type lol? You must think when you look in the mirror you look like prime Arnold. Take off the rose colored glasses.

 

Vlad is a very good bat and he may become great. His D at 1B seems fine but there is a limit to what anyone will pay for D at 1B. Just not in a rush to give him 10/300.

Edited September 17, 2022 by BigCecil

[Grant77]

Bellinger had put up 16 WAR by 23 and 1 elite season. Vlad by 23 has 9 WAR ok? Who gives a s*** about just 100 home runs? We are talking about overall value created = money and contract term and AAV. Early hitting success doesn't automatically = 10/300M and continued offensive success. Yelich was a little later...not that much. Wonder how they like that deal now?

 

Speaking of not adding to the conversation, Miggy is not a comp as a 21-23 year old to Vlads body type LOL. I cant believe I have to explain this but Miggy didn't always look like he does now. Also Gywnn put on weight much later in his career. As did Puckett. They had already racked up consistently big numbers and frankly they are anomalies anyway.

 

Vlad is pillowy now. He has been since he was a kid in MTL, and its going to get harder for him to stay 240-250 each season. Your argument that ballooning in weight doesn't affect performance success probabilities is not a good one.

 

Soto's career wRC+ is 20 points higher than Vlad's. Thats a player who is more likely to be truly elite and possibly HOF player than Vlad, even with a tough '22.

 

You think early FLR Miggy is a "obvious" comp to Vlad's body type lol? You must think when you look in the mirror you look like prime Arnold. Take off the rose colored glasses.

 

Vlad is a very good bat and he may become great. Just not in a rush to give him 10/300.

 

Miguel Cabrera has had well documented weight issues for his entire career, even with the Marlins. I never made an argument that increased weight wouldn't affect Vlad, but you can't just infer that he is going to go full Cecil Fielder in the future. There's nothing to suggest that this is going to be the case.

 

I also didn't compare him to Juan Soto. You really don't have an answer to any of the points that I brought up and that's ok, but making up fictional arguments and responding to yourself is a little silly.

[BigCecil]

Miguel Cabrera has had well documented weight issues for his entire career, even with the Marlins. I never made an argument that increased weight wouldn't affect Vlad, but you can't just infer that he is going to go full Cecil Fielder in the future. There's nothing to suggest that this is going to be the case.

 

I also didn't compare him to Juan Soto. You really don't have an answer to any of the points that I brought up and that's ok, but making up fictional arguments and responding to yourself is a little silly.

 

Fictional? Bellinger and Vlad WAR totals by 23 are just statistical facts. You didn't make any points worth responding to, but I did have to say its strange that you are excited by 100 home run by a certain age and think that equals contract value. You also think Miggy & Vlad had/have the same body type 21-23, which is inaccurate and deserved a comment.

[Olerud363]

The list was on Sportsnet the other day and is a top 10. It's not some cherry picked creation of the top 17 players to hit opposite field home runs on Wednesdays.

 

It's not the list people have issues with. It's your claim that players like Vlad are almost certain hall-of-famers. You are using the list in a deceptive way.

 

1.. The list is fact of course.

2. The players on the list are mostly hall of famers.

3. Vlad is the worst player in terms of the list criteria (he was the slowest to 100 homeruns)

4. Looking at other criteria, such as WAR, Vlad is also the worst player on the list

 

Below are the players on your list career WAR through age 23. It is clear that players with 20 WAR through age 23 almost always make the hall of fame, but Vlad isn't even half that. He's only at 9. Any honest list of Vlad comparables would be guys with 7-11 WAR through age 23, 1b types, big guys, power hitters but allright hitters, not .230 200 strikeout guys. That's the list we'd want to see to get an idea what guys similar to Vlad do the rest of the way. A list of 9 WAR Vlad, and 20 WAR guys who got to 100 homers faster then he did isn't really telling us much.

 

Mel Ott 33

Vladimir Guerrero Jr 9

Alex Rodriguez 26

Eddie Mathews 26

Bryce Harper 22

Andrew Jones 25

Johnny Bench 21

Miguel Cabrera 14

Tony Conigliaro 10

Albert Pujols 22

[jaysblue]

The list was on Sportsnet the other day and is a top 10. It's not some cherry picked creation of the top 17 players to hit opposite field home runs on Wednesdays.

 

Sportsnet is pretty biased when it comes to the Jays lol.

[Spanky99]

It's all about risk/reward, there really isn't a wrong answer here. I'm sure our FO has a number they're comfortable with as does Vlad's camp.

[Spanky99]

 

Kirk unavailable for the 4th straight game now, I think? Anyone getting worried?

[Spanky99]

Sounds like he'll be back soon...

 

[Themitt]

Just a genuine quick ask for you mathematical geniuses. What's the expected win number for each wild card and what's the number for a guaranteed jays playoff birth

[Spanky99]

Just a genuine quick ask for you mathematical geniuses. What's the expected win number for each wild card and what's the number for a guaranteed jays playoff birth

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings