General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Masterbather]

Exactly. Clutch isn't a thing. This BS about how many times he's had a hit to tie or take the lead in the 6th inning or later is some made up BS stat. I'm fairly sure if you could track this stat, you'd find these numbers vary widely from year to year for all the best hitters in baseball. It's not a skill that you can see a player is working on and improving year after year.

 

Adjusting your approach depending on the game situation is a thing that good hitters do though.

[Brownie19]

Adjusting your approach depending on the game situation is a thing that good hitters do though.

 

Prove it. Show me the list of great hitters who consistently, year in and year out, hit better in clutch situations. Vlad was great last year and hasn't been good at all in those situations this year. Do you think his 'clutch' ability eroded that much in one season?

[Daniel Labude]

Prove it. Show me the list of great hitters who consistently, year in and year out, hit better in clutch situations. Vlad was great last year and hasn't been good at all in those situations this year. Do you think his 'clutch' ability eroded that much in one season?

 

How he is pitched in those situations have changed to the most extreme in baseball....minimal strikes basically or perfect pitchers pitches all low or away, meanwhile Judge will get a grooved in cookie over and over lmao. Everyone looks at results and never considers how insane Vlad is being pitched vs last season, yeah he needs to walk more to change it, but the hitters behind him fail at an asinine rate. Being 23 and a top hitter he tries to do it himself more than he should. Will take experience and adjustments...and a team succeeding behind him. Too many people want everything now now now lol

[Olerud363]

How he is pitched in those situations have changed to the most extreme in baseball....minimal strikes basically or perfect pitchers pitches all low or away, meanwhile Judge will get a grooved in cookie over and over lmao. Everyone looks at results and never considers how insane Vlad is being pitched vs last season, yeah he needs to walk more to change it, but the hitters behind him fail at an asinine rate. Being 23 and a top hitter he tries to do it himself more than he should. Will take experience and adjustments...and a team succeeding behind him. Too many people want everything now now now lol

 

The number of pitches both are seeing in the strike zone are the same according to fangraphs. Difference between them is swing percentage. Judge has a lower in zone and out of zone swing percentage and walks more. He hits more fly balls because of swing mechanics, but also because he doesn't swing at pitches he can't get in the air as much as Vlad.

 

No evidence (and no reason) that teams would pitch Vlad tougher than Judge.

[BigCecil]

The only ones I remember are:

 

- that Yankees game he hit 3 homers

- walk off single vs the Os in extras

- that double he hit in extras and Teo went on to walk it off

 

ThatÂ’s all his clutch hitting this year

 

That's about what I remember. I'm not sure about the clutch debate. All I know is Vlad at bats are truly complete s*** a lot when he has an opportunity to clear some bases off, other than with a GIDP. At the end of the day if Vlad, George and Teo are more consistently driving in some runs, we will be fine. If they don't, we won't. Approach and execution matters as do situations.

[Olerud363]

That's about what I remember. I'm not sure about the clutch debate. All I know is Vlad at bats are truly complete s*** a lot when he has an opportunity to clear some bases off, other than with a GIDP. At the end of the day if Vlad, George and Teo are more consistently driving in some runs, we will be fine. If they don't, we won't. Approach and execution matters as do situations.

 

If all three take walks when they don't get pitches to hit things will be fine. Just so frustrating. If Vladdy want to be "the guy" he needs to realize RBIzzzzz are a thing of the past and clutch means taking the walk when the other option is swinging at bad pitches and GIDP.

 

When a guy like Vlad isn't getting pitched to he can either hit .320 with 100 walks and settle for a lower RBI total, or he can hit .275 with 50 walks and the same lower RBI total. Swinging wildly when they aren't pitching to him leads to a ground ball or K, not an RBI.

[DigitalRock]

The number of pitches both are seeing in the strike zone are the same according to fangraphs. Difference between them is swing percentage. Judge has a lower in zone and out of zone swing percentage and walks more. He hits more fly balls because of swing mechanics, but also because he doesn't swing at pitches he can't get in the air as much as Vlad.

 

No evidence (and no reason) that teams would pitch Vlad tougher than Judge.

 

Why entertain that idiot? He is obsessed with vlad. He has had a lot of pitches to hit and misses, he is not being pitched harder than judge, ignore lettheballfly he’s stupid

[BigCecil]

If all three take walks when they don't get pitches to hit things will be fine. Just so frustrating. If Vladdy want to be "the guy" he needs to realize RBIzzzzz are a thing of the past and clutch means taking the walk when the other option is swinging at bad pitches and GIDP.

 

When a guy like Vlad isn't getting pitched to he can either hit .320 with 100 walks and settle for a lower RBI total, or he can hit .275 with 50 walks and the same lower RBI total. Swinging wildly when they aren't pitching to him leads to a ground ball or K, not an RBI.

 

To me this is a given. If you get pitchers strikes or balls, just pass the baton. Trust the guys behind you in the order. At this point I don't care a lot that Vlad has hit 12000 balls 800 MPH this year. I just want him to have a better approach on what pitch he is zoning up, swing at better pitches to hit when he is at the plate, especially when guys are on, or just take the BB. He got a 2B down the line last night nobody on. But watching live last night he looks more in between and off than on TV to me.

[Laika]

Part of me thinks Vlad's current mental funk is the result of a string of s*** luck. As stupid as that sounds.

 

It seems like a lot of the times this year when he goes to the plate with a patient approach the pitcher just happens to paint two perfect sliders on the lower outside corner that clip the zone, or get a call when the ball is just outside.

 

I think that has happened enough this year to just completely f*** him up to be honest. Now he's lost.

 

This is purely anecdotal of course.

 

It's like he is there at the plate some of the time EXPECTING to have to make contact with a perfect, pitcher's pitch of a slider. This makes him swing at a whole bunch of garbage stuff off the plate and it also contorts him against meatballs and pitches on the inner half.

[Laika]

I would love to see someone do some professional hitting coach style analysis of Vlad's current swing, from the open side view. I wonder what the mechanical flaws are.

[Stangstag]

I would love to see someone do some professional hitting coach style analysis of Vlad's current swing, from the open side view. I wonder what the mechanical flaws are.

 

I don’t think anything is really wrong with his swing, we know he can rake. I think its just timing is off right now and bad pitch selection.

 

Timing is off and he’s missing meatballs, swinging at bad pitches and hitting a lot of grounders. The exit velo is there

[Jimcanuck]

I don’t think anything is really wrong with his swing, we know he can rake. I think its just timing is off right now and bad pitch selection.

 

Timing is off and he’s missing meatballs, swinging at bad pitches and hitting a lot of grounders. The exit velo is there

 

I don't know, I'm no hitting coach, but my perception just from watching is he has more of an uppercut swing this year compared to last. As if he's consciously trying to hit the ball in the air and double crossing himself with a shitload of groundballs instead.

 

Plus his frustration / mental funk.

[Solaxys]

At the end of the day, he is missing meatballs, the pitches in his wheelhouse that are either mid 90 fastballs or mid 80 sliders are being fouled back.

Like you can be Kyle Schwarber and have an absolute s*** recognition of the strike zone and uncomfortable swing, but if you give Schwarber a meatball, it is getting launched.

 

He definitely gets them, in fact (for LTBF's sake) I start mentioning them in the GDTs every time it happened during his AB and he just does not do damage with them.

Like almost every meatball is fouled back or watched. Just look at the AB on Monday night against Adams - swings at garbage, watches the absolute meatball go by (the similar pitch that Bo cranked a HR on) and then swings at garbage again.

So it begs to differ, what is he looking for? Why is his discipline so bad of late that he just doesn't commit to things he can drive instead of trying to make contact with every pitch in existence?

 

Is he 'pushing to be the hero'? Why, what in the last 140 games led him to believe this approach is heroic?

Is he 'struggling'? Then stop with the swing happy approach - get deep into counts, take the walks, let the ones he can't drive go (until its 2 strikes and you have to protect), sit on the pitches that he can drive and then take them right center (so be late the on the swing, but drive them) - once you get comfortable, then start pulling them for HRs.

 

There are so many ways to address this issue with him, and at the least, get him to have competitive ABs instead of grounding out or praying for holes every AB. If their mantra to him is "keep doing what you are doing and you'll get there" after 140 games, its kind of stupid. He's 23, and on all accounts, immature as f*** in and off the field but we are going for a playoff run not fostering/building like the Os are, who have the luxury of sitting there and watching Gunnar fumble every single groundball to his side.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Solaxys

[John_Havok]

At the end of the day, he is missing meatballs, the pitches in his wheelhouse that are either mid 90 fastballs or mid 80 sliders are being fouled back.

Like you can be Kyle Schwarber and have an absolute s*** recognition of the strike zone and uncomfortable swing, but if you give Schwarber a meatball, it is getting launched.

 

He definitely gets them, in fact (for LTBF's sake) I start mentioning them in the GDTs every time it happened during his AB and he just does not do damage with them. Like almost every meatball is fouled back.

So it begs to differ, what is he looking for? Why is his discipline so bad of late that he just doesn't commit to things he can drive instead of trying to make contact with every pitch in existence?

 

Is he 'pushing to be the hero'? Why, what in the last 140 games led him to believe this approach is heroic?

Is he 'struggling'? Then stop with the swing happy approach, let the ones he can't drive go (until its 2 strikes and you have to protect), sit on the pitches that he can drive and then take them right center (so be late the on the swing, but drive them) - once you get comfortable, then start pulling them for HRs.

 

There are so many ways to address this issue with him, and at the least, get him to have competitive ABs instead of grounding out or praying for holes every AB. If their mantra to him is "keep doing what you are doing and you'll get there" after 140 games, its kind of stupid. He's 23, and on all accounts, immature as f*** in and off the field but we are going for a playoff run not fostering/building like the Os are, who have the luxury of sitting there and watching Gunnar fumble every single groundball to his side.

 

To follow up on your train of thought:

 

2021 Swing visual:

 

 

2022 Swing Visual

 

 

 

Not hard to see where the gap is. He's objectively worse in all of the Heart, Shadow and Chase zones. Heart: swinging less, taking more. Shadow and Chase: Swinging more, taking fewer pitches, and the ones he is taking arent the ones he should be taking given the -7 run value in the Shadow zone.

 

It may partially explain the uptick in grounders if he's swigning at more of the pitcher's pitches, but probably not the whole story as far as the grounders goes.

Edited September 14, 2022 by John_Havok

[Daniel Labude]

The number of pitches both are seeing in the strike zone are the same according to fangraphs. Difference between them is swing percentage. Judge has a lower in zone and out of zone swing percentage and walks more. He hits more fly balls because of swing mechanics, but also because he doesn't swing at pitches he can't get in the air as much as Vlad.

 

No evidence (and no reason) that teams would pitch Vlad tougher than Judge.

 

 

 

Vlad's season high is Judge's season low of pitches in the strike zone with a 10-20% gap much of the season. So over any given stretch Judge was routinely getting significantly more pitches in the zone. Part is Vlad trying to do to much, but they are being pitched differently and ultimately tougher on Vlad

[Jimcanuck]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2421[/ATTACH]

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2422[/ATTACH]

 

Vlad's season high is Judge's season low of pitches in the strike zone with a 10-20% gap much of the season. So over any given stretch Judge was routinely getting significantly more pitches in the zone. Part is Vlad trying to do to much, but they are being pitched differently and ultimately tougher on Vlad

 

Or Vlad is being tough on himself.

[Stangstag]

To follow up on your train of thought:

 

2021 Swing visual:

 

 

2022 Swing Visual

 

 

 

Not hard to see where the gap is. He's objectively worse in all of the Heart, Shadow and Chase zones. Heart: swinging less, taking more. Shadow and Chase: Swinging more, taking fewer pitches, and the ones he is taking arent the ones he should be taking given the -7 run value in the Shadow zone.

 

It may partially explain the uptick in grounders if he's swigning at more of the pitcher's pitches, but probably not the whole story as far as the grounders goes.

 

That -3 run value in the heart of the zone is f***ing abysmal, jesus. Its crazy that his numbers on the year are still fairly good

[Daniel Labude]

Or Vlad is being tough on himself.

 

Definitely. In reality its probably some combo of being pitched tougher and differently, trying too much, being tough on himself, swing adjustments, approach, and confidence

[Jimcanuck]

Definitely. In reality its probably some combo of being pitched tougher and differently, trying too much, being tough on himself, swing adjustments, approach, and confidence

 

What I mean is Vlad is the one responsible for how he is being pitched, tougher and differently as you say

[Daniel Labude]

What I mean is Vlad is the one responsible for how he is being pitched, tougher and differently as you say

 

Correct...35 less walks than last season is a big part

[Daniel Labude]

I would love to see someone do some professional hitting coach style analysis of Vlad's current swing, from the open side view. I wonder what the mechanical flaws are.

 

Closer to the plate than last season- was to focus on more outside pitches but keeps getting jammed inside

 

Closed start with his lead foot compared to last season. Kind of a cross body swing vs an open one

 

Closed step compared to last season. Same issues above

 

Bat angle dipping before the swing vs vertical last season leading to decreased launch angle, especially on lower pitches

 

Load elongated (too early and extended) compared to last season causing him to be late and off balanced

 

In the last week he has opened his stance, stepped off the plate, adjusted the bat angle before the swing and attempting to be more smooth and quick with the toe tap. Nothing wrong with the swing, but little things innthe set up causing some issues, along with patience needed to get a good pitch

[Stangstag]

Closer to the plate than last season- was to focus on more outside pitches but keeps getting jammed inside

 

Closed start with his lead foot compared to last season. Kind of a cross body swing vs an open one

 

Closed step compared to last season. Same issues above

 

Bat angle dipping before the swing vs vertical last season leading to decreased launch angle, especially on lower pitches

 

Load elongated (too early and extended) compared to last season causing him to be late and off balanced

 

In the last week he has opened his stance, stepped off the plate, adjusted the bat angle before the swing and attempting to be more smooth and quick with the toe tap. Nothing wrong with the swing, but little things innthe set up causing some issues, along with patience needed to get a good pitch

 

So what you’re saying is… he’s getting close

[Daniel Labude]

So what you’re saying is… he’s getting close

 

Theoretically lol. Could take a month or a week or so...or not until the offseason to get dialed back in. #1 though he needs to get back to the approach from last season. Attack fastballs and take walks while punishing mistakes. At this stage of the season thats a tough adjustment to make

[John_Havok]

 

Just don't throw Vlad a splitter and youre okay.

[Spanky99]

Prove it. Show me the list of great hitters who consistently, year in and year out, hit better in clutch situations. Vlad was great last year and hasn't been good at all in those situations this year. Do you think his 'clutch' ability eroded that much in one season?

 

Just statistical noise.

[Omar]

Vlad's season high is Judge's season low of pitches in the strike zone with a 10-20% gap much of the season. So over any given stretch Judge was routinely getting significantly more pitches in the zone. Part is Vlad trying to do to much, but they are being pitched differently and ultimately tougher on Vlad

 

Did you take a close look at the graphic John Havoc posted, specifically with respect to pitch frequency? It is extremely close year over year on a sample of over 2000 pitches. Incredibly similar. Looks like they are not pitching to Vlad much differently this season versus 2021.

[Daniel Labude]

Did you take a close look at the graphic John Havoc posted, specifically with respect to pitch frequency? It is extremely close year over year on a sample of over 2000 pitches. Incredibly similar. Looks like they are not pitching to Vlad much differently this season versus 2021.

 

 

These paint a more accurate picture imo. 43% of pitches down and away this year vs 37% last year. 58% of pitches down this year vs 54% of pitches down last year. 23% of pitches up this year vs 29% last year

[Laika]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2423[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]2424[/ATTACH]

 

These paint a more accurate picture imo. 43% of pitches down and away this year vs 37% last year. 58% of pitches down this year vs 54% of pitches down last year. 23% of pitches up this year vs 29% last year

 

Yeah I was looking at this data earlier but was too lazy to post the pictures. It's probably a big enough % change to mess with a hitter.

[Omar]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2423[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]2424[/ATTACH]

 

These paint a more accurate picture imo. 43% of pitches down and away this year vs 37% last year. 58% of pitches down this year vs 54% of pitches down last year. 23% of pitches up this year vs 29% last year

 

How do you get 43% down and away this year from this chart?

[Daniel Labude]

How do you get 43% down and away this year from this chart?

 

Used the bottom middle and bottom away of the strike zone and the low and away outside of it