General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[jaysblue]

Until they cross the border than all of a sudden they become a team that can play. we need to sweep them

 

Ohtani pitches on Saturday.

[Brownie19]

During last nights game they were talking on the Fan 590 about how Berrios raised his release point in his previous start, which provided much better results on his 4 seamer. I can't seem to find release point on Baseball Savant, but I know someone posted evidence that it had been decreasing over the past 3-4 years. Wondering if there's evidence he maintained the higher release point last night. Hopefully it's a step back in the right direction for him.

[Spanky99]

Ohtani pitches on Saturday.

 

And Detmers Friday, with Trout finally back from the IL. Not going to be as simple as people think.

[Laika]

During last nights game they were talking on the Fan 590 about how Berrios raised his release point in his previous start, which provided much better results on his 4 seamer. I can't seem to find release point on Baseball Savant, but I know someone posted evidence that it had been decreasing over the past 3-4 years. Wondering if there's evidence he maintained the higher release point last night. Hopefully it's a step back in the right direction for him.

 

There is a graph on his main page

You toggle to AVG RELEASE VERTICAL

Then switch the season to just 2022

and the interval to GAME

 

His release point last outing was one of his highest of the year

[Laika]

This is his average vertical release point, all pitches clumped together, by month, for his whole career. Interesting to look at.

 

 

[jaysblue]

And Detmers Friday, with Trout finally back from the IL. Not going to be as simple as people think.

 

Yup exactly. Angels are still an MLB team. You gotta play good baseball to still beat them. They won't be an easy walkover.

[metafour]

No. I'm not severely over rating anyone. I simply said they could conceivably have traded for someone else to point out its the value of the prospects at the time of the deal, in the eyes of the receiver. Not what they are now. And I'm not making a complaint at all. I cant give you a name now. I wasn't a GM in the '21 deadline discussions. Neither were you. You don't really know, other than this deal for Berrios, how other teams valued those two either.

 

But you are overrating the prospects dealt, otherwise why would you still be bringing that trade up as some sort of "what if" scenario? If you actually evaluate those prospects AT THE TIME OF THE TRADE: Martin was showing no defensive value and was not hitting well in AA, all he was doing was drawing walks and swinging a noodle bat. Keith Law was CONSTANTLY stating that SWR's upside was that of a reliever, and this was at the time of the trade. If you remember, he was struggling heavily and his stuff was down. Both players fell out of any Top 100 prospect discussion. Again, this was at the time of the trade. If the website writers were coming to these conclusions, I highly doubt that actual teams were seeing "star prospects" in either of these two. Martin in particular seemed to be getting far too much benefit of the doubt, as if people were afraid to "write him off" despite the fact that he was showing very very concerning issues for a supposed "elite hitter".

 

So you don't even need to look at the prospects "in hindsight", because what you see now is basically the same or worse to what was seen when they were actually dealt. SWR was doing much better in AA this season and was recently promoted to AAA, but I just looked at a Twins forum out of curiosity and some of the reports suggest that he's been ~88-91 with his fastball this season. Everything else still looks the same: concerns relating to his delivery, and a breaking ball that flashes above average, but seems to be too easy to pick up out of his hand. From the Twins perspective, it really looks like they got a ~#5 starter and a utility hitter with no power who can't field any position better than average for 1.5 years of Berrios, who at the time was still a ~3+ WAR starter.

[jaysblue]

I have nothing against the Berrios trade and extension. This season I give him a mulligan. If he performs this way again next season and in 2024, then I would be worried. Otherwise, when the Jays acquired him, he was a very solid #1A or #2 starter and under 30 with the potential for more growth. There was a lot to like.

[Stangstag]

I have nothing against the Berrios trade and extension. This season I give him a mulligan. If he performs this way again next season and in 2024, then I would be worried. Otherwise, when the Jays acquired him, he was a very solid #1A or #2 starter and under 30 with the potential for more growth. There was a lot to like.

 

Hell several guys on MLB network even had him as their Cy Young favorite. Really hope he turns it around and puts together more consistent starts

[Laika]

More on Berrios' release point

 

You can see that within several seasons his vertical RP has seemed to drop as the season went on. Maybe this is fatigue showing up.

 

In 2022 he STARTED the season with a low release point - at a level that he only really lived at during the final months of a couple of seasons before.

 

It's like he started the year tired, or maybe hurt. I wonder if he did something different in the offseason.

[Stangstag]

More on Berrios' release point

 

You can see that within several seasons his vertical RP has seemed to drop as the season went on. Maybe this is fatigue showing up.

 

In 2022 he STARTED the season with a low release point - at a level that he only really lived at during the final months of a couple of seasons before.

 

It's like he started the year tired, or maybe hurt. I wonder if he did something different in the offseason.

 

Well it was a weird offseason + short spring training

[Jimcanuck]

Gotta be a workout demon like Halladay to stay strong all season long

[Laika]

Well it was a weird offseason + short spring training

 

Shorter spring yeah but the offseason should have been normal for him, you'd think

[G-Snarls]

It's also extra stressful watching Berrios be so inconsistent when we don't have Ryu and Kikuchi has been garbage

 

Thankfully Stripling has extremely helpful at helping stabilize the rotation... not sure where we'd be without him.

[G-Snarls]

MLB.com

1 award candidate on each team:

 

Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman, RHP

Key stat: 2.05 FIP leads all qualified starters

In addition to the stat above, Gausman leads all AL pitchers in FanGraphs WAR

[Stangstag]

Shorter spring yeah but the offseason should have been normal for him, you'd think

 

Who knows if some of these guys sat on the couch not doing their regular work, thinking the season wouldn’t happen. Like Vladdy did in 2020

[Stangstag]

It's also extra stressful watching Berrios be so inconsistent when we don't have Ryu and Kikuchi has been garbage

 

Thankfully Stripling has extremely helpful at helping stabilize the rotation... not sure where we'd be without him.

 

White has also been great since we got him

[G-Snarls]

White has also been great since we got him

 

Heck yeah

 

Great picup

[Solaxys]

[jaysblue]

White has also been great since we got him

 

Mitch White was a solid pickup. Hopefully he starts pitching deeper into games, though he gives the Jays a very solid back-end of the rotation starter with some upside.

[BigCecil]

But you are overrating the prospects dealt, otherwise why would you still be bringing that trade up as some sort of "what if" scenario? If you actually evaluate those prospects AT THE TIME OF THE TRADE: Martin was showing no defensive value and was not hitting well in AA, all he was doing was drawing walks and swinging a noodle bat. Keith Law was CONSTANTLY stating that SWR's upside was that of a reliever, and this was at the time of the trade. If you remember, he was struggling heavily and his stuff was down. Both players fell out of any Top 100 prospect discussion. Again, this was at the time of the trade. If the website writers were coming to these conclusions, I highly doubt that actual teams were seeing "star prospects" in either of these two. Martin in particular seemed to be getting far too much benefit of the doubt, as if people were afraid to "write him off" despite the fact that he was showing very very concerning issues for a supposed "elite hitter".

 

So you don't even need to look at the prospects "in hindsight", because what you see now is basically the same or worse to what was seen when they were actually dealt. SWR was doing much better in AA this season and was recently promoted to AAA, but I just looked at a Twins forum out of curiosity and some of the reports suggest that he's been ~88-91 with his fastball this season. Everything else still looks the same: concerns relating to his delivery, and a breaking ball that flashes above average, but seems to be too easy to pick up out of his hand. From the Twins perspective, it really looks like they got a ~#5 starter and a utility hitter with no power who can't field any position better than average for 1.5 years of Berrios, who at the time was still a ~3+ WAR starter.

 

No. I'm not. I'm clearly not communicating myself well to you. You seem focused on defending the trade and Berrios. That's fine. Its an easily defensible deal. My point in simple. Those prospects had flaws but they were still highly rated. At least the Twins thought a lot of them and perhaps other teams. We will never know. Berrios deal was semi on par with the Castillo and Montas deals in 22 and look what it took Seattle to get Castillo. Different market yes. But in 21 SWR and Martin got it done. Clearly they had significant value so said that market. Let's leave it. I take your points.

[Terminator]

White has also been great since we got him

 

Remember when the board had a meltdown because we gave up a 23 year old A-Ball pitcher for him? Some posters were so upset they even quit LOL

[wilko]

Remember when the board had a meltdown because we gave up a 23 year old A-Ball pitcher for him? Some posters were so upset they even quit LOL

 

lol Why get so upset over something you can't control?

[John_Havok]

lol Why get so upset over something you can't control?

 

Have you met people?

[wilko]

Have you met people?

 

[BlueJays]

Wrong thread

[G-Snarls]

Bullpen ERA 2.73 since the start of July

[Ray]

This next stretch of games is the easiest remaining part of the schedule we have rest of the way. Crucial portion.

 

3 vs. Angels

3 vs. Cubs

3 vs. Pirates

3 vs. Orioles

3 vs. Rangers

 

After that, barring a 3 game series vs. The Sox, it’s all .500 teams or better the rest of the way. Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Orioles. Playoff fate could be dependent on this stretch.

[Stangstag]

This next stretch of games is the easiest remaining part of the schedule we have rest of the way. Crucial portion.

 

3 vs. Angels

3 vs. Cubs

3 vs. Pirates

3 vs. Orioles

3 vs. Rangers

 

After that, barring a 3 game series vs. The Sox, it’s all .500 teams or better the rest of the way. Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Orioles. Playoff fate could be dependent on this stretch.

 

Yup need to pull ahead a bit in the standings so we can afford to lose a few against the tougher teams down the stretch. Don’t want a repeat of last year where we needed to win like every game the last 2 weeks

[Masterbather]

Seattle is kind of the opposite, they have a few tough teams coming up but then down the stretch it's a joke of a schedule because it's a bunch of AL West teams not named Houston. I think they're guaranteed a wild card spot. Tampa will get one because it's Tampa. Probably comes down to us and the Orioles. I can't f***ing believe that's a thing but we are the better team.