General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[jaysblue]

Hes fooled 2000 people so far lol,

 

 

Quick way to get 2000 followers haha

[BigCecil]

Interesting looking at Jays individual WAR 21 and 22. They had 3 offensive players in '21 over 5 WAR and Teo was over 4.

 

Not sure anyone will even hit 5 this year. Kirk is leading with Springer at 3.2 and Springer isn't playing much. Chappy right there. OTOH there are a lot of 2+ seasons. A lot of consistent quality.

 

(Gausman obviously at the top pitching WAR. I don't understand relievers WAR. Phelps same value as Romano)

[Brownie19]

Interesting looking at Jays individual WAR 21 and 22. They had 3 offensive players in '21 over 5 WAR and Teo was over 4.

 

Not sure anyone will even hit 5 this year. Kirk is leading with Springer at 3.2 and Springer isn't playing much. Chappy right there. OTOH there are a lot of 2+ seasons. A lot of consistent quality.

 

(Gausman obviously at the top pitching WAR. I don't understand relievers WAR. Phelps same value as Romano)

 

Yeah we only had 5 positional players > 2 WAR last year. We could/should have 8 this year. With a hot finish, we might have 6 > 3 WAR too.

[Spanky99]

Interesting looking at Jays individual WAR 21 and 22. They had 3 offensive players in '21 over 5 WAR and Teo was over 4.

 

Not sure anyone will even hit 5 this year. Kirk is leading with Springer at 3.2 and Springer isn't playing much. Chappy right there. OTOH there are a lot of 2+ seasons. A lot of consistent quality.

 

(Gausman obviously at the top pitching WAR. I don't understand relievers WAR. Phelps same value as Romano)

 

I'd use bWAR with relievers as they center around RA9-WAR, Phelps has been really good aside from the walks. Also use RE24 and SIERA with relievers to get a better picture of value. Romano's at 1.2 and Phelps at 0.8.

[G-Snarls]

Haha that's gold! Someone create one for Mark Shapiro!

 

A Brian Cashman one would get a lot of attention right now

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

There's already this one but it's even labelled as a parody in the bio. They're not trying to fool anyone.

[Spanky99]

[Solaxys]

How the f*** does Vlad have 155 wRC+, 17 HRs, normal BABIP (.314) with a 4.8 LA since June 1st? (Presumably when he stopped pressing too much to do superhuman stuff as Teo returned)

 

Is LA a myth?!

[Jimcanuck]

How the f*** does Vlad have 155 wRC+, 17 HRs, normal BABIP (.314) with a 4.8 LA since June 1st? (Presumably when he stopped pressing too much to do superhuman stuff as Teo returned)

 

Is LA a myth?!

 

A 10% LA for Vlad would mean about 50 HR and 180 wRC+ at this point

[John_Havok]

How the f*** does Vlad have 155 wRC+, 17 HRs, normal BABIP (.314) with a 4.8 LA since June 1st? (Presumably when he stopped pressing too much to do superhuman stuff as Teo returned)

 

Is LA a myth?!

 

With Vlad's talent, a 155 wRC+ should be his floor. When he gets the LA right, we're looking at 190 or higher.

[Solaxys]

With Vlad's talent, a 155 wRC+ should be his floor. When he gets the LA right, we're looking at 190 or higher.

 

A 10% LA for Vlad would mean about 50 HR and 180 wRC+ at this point

 

True, but I don't think he'll change his swing to get that LA.

Even his MVP-season last year, the avg was 9.6 - now the pitchers adjusted, leading to more contact that nets bad LAs.

Wonder if that'll factor in to his contract negotiations. Or is he going to get a contract based on what he is capable of.

[John_Havok]

True, but I don't think he'll change his swing to get that LA.

Even his MVP-season last year, the avg was 9.6 - now the pitchers adjusted, leading to more contact that nets bad LAs.

Wonder if that'll factor in to his contract negotiations. Or is he going to get a contract based on what he is capable of.

 

I dont think it's a swing change issue, his swing looks laregly the same. I think he's getting fewer, and therefore swigning at fewer pitches that are condusive to his particualr swing path creating the punishing fly balls. He'll still crush mistakes of course, but pitchers know they can't live up in the zone with him. It's gotta be down and preferably down and away

[BigCecil]

Hope Berrios shows up tonight.

 

Not trying to be negative but I just didn't think he was very good last start. He was better but he still had way too much FB leakage center cut. He ran into a cold Yanks team who barreled some up to wrong part of park, and others were missed. The K's were a good sign. His FB command has been dogshit all year. Hard to believe the guy we traded 2 top prospects for, and gave all that $ to is now our #4.

[AMS528]

Hope Berrios shows up tonight.

 

Not trying to be negative but I just didn't think he was very good last start. He was better but he still had way too much FB leakage center cut. He ran into a cold Yanks team who barreled some up to wrong part of park, and others were missed. The K's were a good sign. His FB command has been dogshit all year. Hard to believe the guy we traded 2 top prospects for, and gave all that $ to is now our #4.

 

 

I think the outlook on Berrios basically is, this is for whatever reason a terrible off year for him, and there's a low chance he turns it around. But his track record before that is lot of innings of good pitching, so there shouldn't be panic that he can't return to that level at least next year if not this year. Luckily neither SWR or Martin are very good either so not much pain on that end of the deal.

 

800 innings of solid and steady performance and still on the right side of 30. Yeah he genuinely does suck this year and it's not bad luck, but he should return value on this contract overall given it's not a huge amount per year.

[AMS528]

Greinke is consistently unintentionally hilarious. And knows his baseball.

 

https://twitter.com/ByMcCullough/status/1562268852503085056?s=20&t=mJowCLv0F85MN81quhyekg

 

Ross Stripling was recently chatting w/ Zack Greinke.

 

"Man, I really think the Blue Jays are using you right," Greinke said.

 

Stripling asked what he meant.

 

"They don't let you go through a third time," Greinke said. "That's perfect for you."

 

"Thank you?" Stripling said.

 

What website has stats for how guys do each time through a lineup?

[BigCecil]

I think the outlook on Berrios basically is, this is for whatever reason a terrible off year for him, and there's a low chance he turns it around. But his track record before that is lot of innings of good pitching, so there shouldn't be panic that he can't return to that level at least next year if not this year. Luckily neither SWR or Martin are very good either so not much pain on that end of the deal.

 

800 innings of solid and steady performance and still on the right side of 30. Yeah he genuinely does suck this year and it's not bad luck, but he should return value on this contract overall given it's not a huge amount per year.

 

That's all fair. Except the fact that SWR and Martin have turned out not to be great doesn't sugar coat it for me. For the most part a deal needs be assessed on the prospects value at the time of the deal without the benefit of hindsight. Just as we looked at Berrios value at the time of the deal. We could have used that prospect capital to acquire someone other than Berrios, for example.

[Brownie19]

That's all fair. Except the fact that SWR and Martin have turned out not to be great doesn't sugar coat it for me. For the most part a deal needs be assessed on the prospects value at the time of the deal without the benefit of hindsight. Just as we looked at Berrios value at the time of the deal. We could have used that prospect capital to acquire someone other than Berrios, for example.

 

That's fair - but then you also have to assessed based on the performance and value of Berrios at the time of the trade, which was very high. I fully expect both sides were ecstatic with this deal when it was made. High 5's all around. Minny didn't expect Martin/SWR to suck balls, nor did Toronto expect Berrios to s*** the bed. Given their history, pedigree and abilities, those were both very reasonable opinions and expectations at the time. I suspect both organizations are now asking themselves "WTF" and questioning their evaluation teams; however, the reality is that sometimes s*** happens and in baseball, there's a lot of things that are outside of the teams control.

[BigCecil]

That's fair - but then you also have to assessed based on the performance and value of Berrios at the time of the trade, which was very high. I fully expect both sides were ecstatic with this deal when it was made. High 5's all around. Minny didn't expect Martin/SWR to suck balls, nor did Toronto expect Berrios to s*** the bed. Given their history, pedigree and abilities, those were both very reasonable opinions and expectations at the time. I suspect both organizations are now asking themselves "WTF" and questioning their evaluation teams; however, the reality is that sometimes s*** happens and in baseball, there's a lot of things that are outside of the teams control.

 

Of course. I do look at it that way. The extension changes that equation and is a different issue. Lots of guys argued at the time of the deal we lost it, without an extension if you look at the thread. The extension was a big deal and it was unknown element at the time. The extension was done based on a different evaluation by the FO other than the 1.5 year prospect deal. I'm sure at the time of the deal the FO hoped it was possible but its never a guaranteed outcome. Now they may wish it never happened...or not. Don't know. This FO spent about $140M on Ryu, Roark and Kooch and thats produced less than 4 net WAR I think.

 

Back in 2012 I remember arguing with a really solid poster OTB. I was defending giving up prospects for a proven MLB talent, given we don't know what the prospects will ever be, and I listed off a bunch of flame outs. They made the point to me its really about the market's value at the time of the deal. What you are giving and what you are getting. You can't base the deal all on presumptive or predicted future performance by either. Since then, I've always accepted that principle.

[metafour]

For the most part a deal needs be assessed on the prospects value at the time of the deal without the benefit of hindsight. Just as we looked at Berrios value at the time of the deal. We could have used that prospect capital to acquire someone other than Berrios, for example.

 

But this doesn't make sense given your complaint. Actual team evaluation of "prospect value" is always ahead of the internet reporting, but even given that understanding both of those "top prospects" we traded were dropped significantly immediately after the trade by pretty much everyone. Neither player was performing well, and neither player was a "Top 100" prospect. So what exactly do you think they could have been traded for, that was "more" than Berrios? You are severely overrating the value that those two had.

 

I really think that Minnesota was banking on Martin being "fixable", in which case they'd potentially have landed a star prospect. Instead he has become even worse. Minnesota took on more actual risk in that trade, because they could have probably traded Berrios for any number of packages that had more exciting prospects; instead they chose to go with the one that had the recent "top draft pick" hoping his poor performance was an aberration.

 

For the Blue Jays, that trade looked good at the time and it still looks good IMO, even with Berrios struggles this year. He's too young with too much track record to not bounce back, even if it's next season.

[Orgfiller]

Greinke is consistently unintentionally hilarious. And knows his baseball.

 

https://twitter.com/ByMcCullough/status/1562268852503085056?s=20&t=mJowCLv0F85MN81quhyekg

 

 

 

What website has stats for how guys do each time through a lineup?

 

Awesome quote. To answer your question, most of them probably? Here's Stripling's for 2022: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ross-stripling/13273/splits?position=P&season=2022

 

You can see if you scroll down the Jays have only allowed him 8 IP a third time through, compared to 40 and 36 the first two times. If you split it by career you'll see he gets completely shelled historically the third time through.

[Laika]

wait a minute does this mean the front office knows what they are doing when it comes to handling SP in games?

 

no. that's crazy...

[Ray]

[Ray]

24 less games vs. the AL East is massive.

 

Of course you’re also seeing good teams in the NL like the Dodgers now, but overall, this’ll be a net positive swing in our favour. Also about time that they diminish the advantage that lesser teams in weaker division like the AL Central have with their easier path to the playoffs. Just makes no sense to not have a more balanced schedule with so many wildcards now.

[Brownie19]

I believe every team plays every other team in the league next year.

 

10 game road trip to start the season blows if you ask me. IMO, you need to have opening day at home shortly after the season starts.

[Stangstag]

 

Love this

[Stangstag]

24 less games vs. the AL East is massive.

 

Of course you’re also seeing good teams in the NL like the Dodgers now, but overall, this’ll be a net positive swing in our favour. Also about time that they diminish the advantage that lesser teams in weaker division like the AL Central have with their easier path to the playoffs. Just makes no sense to not have a more balanced schedule with so many wildcards now.

 

Central teams are punching the air rn

[wamco]

24 less games vs. the AL East is massive.

 

 

Of course you’re also seeing good teams in the NL like the Dodgers now, but overall, this’ll be a net positive swing in our favour. Also about time that they diminish the advantage that lesser teams in weaker division like the AL Central have with their easier path to the playoffs. Just makes no sense to not have a more balanced schedule with so many wildcards now.

 

Long overdue.

 

For strip as a FA, I’m at 2/18 or 1/11 for strip at this point but still time to increase that . Tijuan Walker took 3/23.

 

How bout you?

[glory]

Next year's AL Central winner will be 73-89.

 

But seriously, this needed to be done, especially with the Wild Card around, and every fanbase should be able to see all the marquee stars and franchises at least once a year.

[Laika]

I believe every team plays every other team in the league next year.

 

10 game road trip to start the season blows if you ask me. IMO, you need to have opening day at home shortly after the season starts.

 

something was said about this being done in case they need an extra week or so for final renovations