General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[jaysblue]

Yeah definitely will have to ride the Teo and Gurriel contracts out. Unless it's a favourable extension for both parties, though I'm sure if Teo has a monster 2023 season, he'll want to cash in after on a big deal.

 

That's why I've been saying, lets hope the Blue Jays can take advantage of these next couple of seasons when they have guys like Teo under control, along with Vlad, Bo, Kirk at very reasonable contracts because the Blue Jays won't be able to afford all of them once their expensive arbitration years come around or when they hit free agency. Replacing a bat like Teo in free agency won't be easy. That's why these next two-three years are so important for the Blue Jays.

[Dagagad]

Marlins always seemed to pop up in that exact market.

 

I think they’d want younger guys.

[G-Snarls]

What team has excess pitching and needs veteran corner outfielders though? It’s a hard match.

 

Braves every second half

[Jonn]

Jays don’t really have the luxury of trading Outfielders. Springer doesn’t look like he’s going to be able to play the Outfield more than 60% of the time. They have nobody even close to taking over one of those spots in the minors. So pretty much set atleast through next season and whoever they choose to employee as the 4th OF after this year. I would hope they non tender Tapia.

[Jays333]

Why can't this regime assemble a competitive bullpen I think is the real question

[Jonn]

Why can't this regime assemble a competitive bullpen I think is the real question

 

They don’t seem willing to invest any money in it. They don’t value velocity and swing and miss the way other organizations do. I don’t know how that changes. But considering everyone they acquire fits a similar mold it seems to be an actual philosophy. The other problem is we don’t seem to be able to turn failed Starters into reliever options either. Mostly because the failed starters don’t have great stuff to begin with. Maybe that changes with Pearson but who knows if he ever even stays healthy.

[Ehjays]

Why can't this regime assemble a competitive bullpen I think is the real question

 

Speaking of Bullpen, Edwin Diaz is gonna be a free agent this year, I just looked at his Stacast page and Ive never seen so much RED, This guy is gonna cash in BIG if he keeps this up.

[The Cats Ass]

I think it's very possible they let Teo walk for a pick.

 

Doubt they would even qualify Gurriel.

 

Depends what Gurriel does next year. I could see him putting up a QO quality year. Not sure where his power has gone, but he hit at a >30HR/162G pace from 2018-2020. He's improved hit K% every year.

[Stangstag]

Speaking of Bullpen, Edwin Diaz is gonna be a free agent this year, I just looked at his Stacast page and Ive never seen so much RED, This guy is gonna cash in BIG if he keeps this up.

 

He was really good with the Mariners a few years ago, then had a dip in performance for a couple years with the Mets. Now back to being elite.

 

The volatility of relievers

[G-Snarls]

He was really good with the Mariners a few years ago, then had a dip in performance for a couple years with the Mets. Now back to being elite.

 

The volatility of relievers

 

Even the best ones have on/off seasons regularly.

[Laika]

Depends what Gurriel does next year. I could see him putting up a QO quality year. Not sure where his power has gone, but he hit at a >30HR/162G pace from 2018-2020. He's improved hit K% every year.

 

Yeah if he can maintain most of this contact/AVG and have a spike up close to 20 HR then sure.

 

But with his current approach, he's not a 20 HR hitter. He's kind of not even trying to drive the ball anymore?

[Stangstag]

Yeah if he can maintain most of this contact/AVG and have a spike up close to 20 HR then sure.

 

But with his current approach, he's not a 20 HR hitter. He's kind of not even trying to drive the ball anymore?

 

Victim of dead ball? He never had crazy power, it was more Bichette-type power

[Brownie19]

They don’t seem willing to invest any money in it. They don’t value velocity and swing and miss the way other organizations do. I don’t know how that changes. But considering everyone they acquire fits a similar mold it seems to be an actual philosophy. The other problem is we don’t seem to be able to turn failed Starters into reliever options either. Mostly because the failed starters don’t have great stuff to begin with. Maybe that changes with Pearson but who knows if he ever even stays healthy.

 

That's because the cost for pitchers like this is sky high. The Mets had to give up Kelenic, Dunn and take on a 36 year old Cano with 5 years left on his contract to get Edwin Diaz. Cleveland had to give up Kluber (a 6 WAR/season pitcher over the previous 5 years - albeit coming off an injury) to get Chase. Most top relivers who make it to free agency get a boat load of money despite a high % of them turning into pumpkins.

 

It didn't make much sense to even consider paying the cost for these types of guys until last year IMO. Ideally guys like Pearson and Merryweather would both be relatively healthy and both currently be flame throwing in the pen and nobody would even be talking about this. Unfortunately injuries happen and you can bitch all you want that they are both made of glass, but there's certainly a large element of luck involved with that.

 

I would like to see them developing relivers with more velocity at a higher rate. They successfully converted Romano to a hard throwing reliver and hopefully they can take Pop's golden arm and develop him into a lockdown guy too. Hopefully the new 'lab' gives them the resources they need to help our own internal options improve and become the bullpen arms we need. History has proven that trying to fill your bullpen with FA's is a difficult way to succeed.

[Laika]

Victim of dead ball? He never had crazy power, it was more Bichette-type power

 

I dunno, it's not like he's hitting flyballs that are dying in the outfield all the time like Bo was.

 

His barrel rate basically goes 10%, 11%, 10%, then a measly 4.3% this year. ISO of course shows the same trend.

 

I think his swing or approach is a bit different and he is game planning to shoot singles to the opposite field a lot more. So just not even trying to crush the ball.

[Deadpool]

Jays don’t really have the luxury of trading Outfielders. Springer doesn’t look like he’s going to be able to play the Outfield more than 60% of the time. They have nobody even close to taking over one of those spots in the minors. So pretty much set atleast through next season and whoever they choose to employee as the 4th OF after this year. I would hope they non tender Tapia.

 

This team seems to really, really hate Nathan Lukes... I doubt he lights the world on fire with his bat, but he can play all three outfield positions, and I'd bet puts up better numbers than Zimmer OR JBJ with the bat...

[jaysblue]

That's because the cost for pitchers like this is sky high. The Mets had to give up Kelenic, Dunn and take on a 36 year old Cano with 5 years left on his contract to get Edwin Diaz. Cleveland had to give up Kluber (a 6 WAR/season pitcher over the previous 5 years - albeit coming off an injury) to get Chase. Most top relivers who make it to free agency get a boat load of money despite a high % of them turning into pumpkins.

 

It didn't make much sense to even consider paying the cost for these types of guys until last year IMO. Ideally guys like Pearson and Merryweather would both be relatively healthy and both currently be flame throwing in the pen and nobody would even be talking about this. Unfortunately injuries happen and you can bitch all you want that they are both made of glass, but there's certainly a large element of luck involved with that.

 

I would like to see them developing relivers with more velocity at a higher rate. They successfully converted Romano to a hard throwing reliver and hopefully they can take Pop's golden arm and develop him into a lockdown guy too. Hopefully the new 'lab' gives them the resources they need to help our own internal options improve and become the bullpen arms we need. History has proven that trying to fill your bullpen with FA's is a difficult way to succeed.

 

I also agree that the Blue Jays shouldn't trade elite prospects just for a top reliever or closer. Like you said, there is definitely a lot of luck involved and even signing a top FA closer doesn't always work out since relievers can be very volatile, even the best ones.

 

Still, the Blue Jays will eventually need to spend on the pen, whether its with cash or through trade, and get lucky developing some BP arms as well (failed starters, high upside guys who have shown high K rates in the minors or majors, reclamation projects etc.). If this team expects to contend for a World Series in 2023 or 2024, they can't do it with a mediocre pen every season. You can't waste the window you have with this core intact. Eventually if they can't get lucky with developing or finding guys on the cheap, then they need to sign a top reliever FA or trade for one in the offseason. Not saying they go crazy and pay an enormous price of prospects or dollars for a reliever, though they definitely will need to spend some money on upgrading bullpen if the team expects to be World Series contenders in 2023 and 2024.

[Brownie19]

I also agree that the Blue Jays shouldn't trade elite prospects just for a top reliever or closer. Like you said, there is definitely a lot of luck involved and even signing a top FA closer doesn't always work out since relievers can be very volatile, even the best ones.

 

Still, the Blue Jays will eventually need to spend on the pen, whether its with cash or through trade, and get lucky developing some BP arms as well (failed starters, high upside guys who have shown high K rates in the minors or majors, reclamation projects etc.). If this team expects to contend for a World Series in 2023 or 2024, they can't do it with a mediocre pen every season. You can't waste the window you have with this core intact. Eventually if they can't get lucky with developing or finding guys on the cheap, then they need to sign a top reliever FA or trade for one in the offseason.

 

Honestly - the team just needs Pearson to come back and become Jorge Lopez (which is obviously has the talent and ability to do) and this conversation is OVER. Pearson, Romano, Garcia, Bass, Mayza, Pop, Cimber and hopefully Merryweather would be a lock down pen with depth that could win a World Series.

[Laika]

Honestly - the team just needs Pearson to come back and become Jorge Lopez (which is obviously has the talent and ability to do) and this conversation is OVER. Pearson, Romano, Garcia, Bass, Mayza, Pop, Cimber and hopefully Merryweather would be a lock down pen with depth that could win a World Series.

 

Yeah.

 

The doomscrollers will scoff but it wasn't completely unreasonable to expect one or both of Pearson and Merryweather to be elite relievers this year. That Toronto has gotten NOTHING from them combined is pretty horrendous.

[AMS528]

Yeah.

 

The doomscrollers will scoff but it wasn't completely unreasonable to expect one or both of Pearson and Merryweather to be elite relievers this year. That Toronto has gotten NOTHING from them combined is pretty horrendous.

 

Pearson was young enough, and his injuries were occasionally non pitching related enough to hope on him.

 

But Merryweather? He's pitched 60.2 innings total in the last 5 YEARS. I don't think you can ever reasonably hope for anything out of a pitcher with that kind of history. You can't really have any plans that rely on a pitcher like that.

[bones10]

Yeah.

 

The doomscrollers will scoff but it wasn't completely unreasonable to expect one or both of Pearson and Merryweather to be elite relievers this year. That Toronto has gotten NOTHING from them combined is pretty horrendous.

 

Merryweather should be back soon I'm guessing? He's had 2 rehab games

Pearson farther of course

[glory]

The Jays will actually have to give up on Pearson being a starter or multi inning bulk guy. Not sure what their reluctance is/was on accepting his injury history and just letting him ramp it up for 1 inning at a time. Hopefully they let him come into spring training next year as strictly a 1 inning reliever. I think if he ever does anything in the bigs, it will be in that role.

[Brownie19]

Pearson was young enough, and his injuries were occasionally non pitching related enough to hope on him.

 

 

I think you mean almost exclusively.

[Dagagad]

Yeah.

 

The doomscrollers will scoff but it wasn't completely unreasonable to expect one or both of Pearson and Merryweather to be elite relievers this year. That Toronto has gotten NOTHING from them combined is pretty horrendous.

 

Merriweather was elite for like a month before and is constantly injured. Pearson has never even really pitched that much at the major league level. I’d say that was an unreasonable expectation.

 

We just aren’t very good at the pitching thing compared to the elite teams and we also don’t want to spend money on it in the pen(which actually is probably smart). This is the result.

 

They assembled a pen that projects to be average and got a bit unlucky. That could be a winning strategy though. It’s not unheard of.

 

Maybe Pearson gets healthy for the playoffs and Zulueta comes up and throws fire.

[Ehjays]

This team seems to really, really hate Nathan Lukes... I doubt he lights the world on fire with his bat, but he can play all three outfield positions, and I'd bet puts up better numbers than Zimmer OR JBJ with the bat...

 

YES!!! I was thinking the same thing, the guy leaves Tampa because he became a minor league free agent, we sign him and nothing he did in spring trainig warranted him being sent down except roster crunch with the thought he would be first to get called up, then zimmer comes along and now JBJ while keeping Zimmer. Im not sure whos cornflakes he s*** in but I think he should have been here before JBJ.

[Laika]

Pearson was young enough, and his injuries were occasionally non pitching related enough to hope on him.

 

But Merryweather? He's pitched 60.2 innings total in the last 5 YEARS. I don't think you can ever reasonably hope for anything out of a pitcher with that kind of history. You can't really have any plans that rely on a pitcher like that.

 

It's not reliance on either one of them. But it's not wishful thinking to expect one of them to be good for most of the year. And if you get lucky they both stay healthy and shove. The Jays got unlucky, because they both got hurt.

 

But this is kind of what the good teams do. They would buy guys like Pearson and Merryweather because their stuff is off the charts. You just get them in the fold.

 

Everyone wants to build a pen like TB does. These are the guys they buy, sometimes. Cast offs with "injury risk" labels are one of their plays. TB always has a lot of pitching injuries too. That's not a coincidence.

[Dagagad]

It's not reliance on either one of them. But it's not wishful thinking to expect one of them to be good for most of the year. And if you get lucky they both stay healthy and shove. The Jays got unlucky, because they both got hurt.

 

But this is kind of what the good teams do. They would buy guys like Pearson and Merryweather because their stuff is off the charts. You just get them in the fold.

 

Everyone wants to build a pen like TB does. These are the guys they buy, sometimes. Cast offs with "injury risk" labels are one of their plays. TB always has a lot of pitching injuries too. That's not a coincidence.

 

This is true but you need enough of them so that inevitably some of them are always healthy.

 

Then you get to use the IL like an option as well for 40man management.

 

I agree that these are the kinds of pitchers that we need but it wasn’t a reasonable expectation that 2 were enough to even expect one to be fit most of the year.

 

It’s not always cast offs either. They trade real prospects for guys with pretty high injury risk if the stuff is good enough.

[John_Havok]

Converstaion point:

 

Is the fact that Chapman is just 1 HR behind Vlad MORE indicative of Vlad having a down year or Chapman having a good year? And before you answer, I know it's probably a mix of both... but which side accounts for more?

[jaysblue]

Honestly - the team just needs Pearson to come back and become Jorge Lopez (which is obviously has the talent and ability to do) and this conversation is OVER. Pearson, Romano, Garcia, Bass, Mayza, Pop, Cimber and hopefully Merryweather would be a lock down pen with depth that could win a World Series.

 

I agree that one of Pearson or Merryweather can really make a big difference in the pen. I've said at the beginning of the season if Pearson can pull an Aaron Sanchez 2015, that would be a huge boost for the Blue Jays. How long do we wait for that to happen though? Also, why should that stop the Jays from looking to upgrade the bullpen in the offseason?

 

As well, the names you listed above, while solid arms, we both know bullpen arms can be volatile. What happens if one or two of those arms regress big time next season or suffer a serious injury? You always need pitching depth and arms that you can call upon during a season. Look at elite organizations like the Dodgers, Astros, and Rays as examples.

 

At some point in time, the Blue Jays FO can't be rolling out mediocre bullpens every season with this elite core of players and starting pitchers they have. You can't be wasting the 2023 or 2024 season in hoping that you can cheaply build an elite bullpen. It's definitely possible as we've seen previous Blue Jays FO's building elite pens and other organizations as well, but even most of those organizations like the Rays, A's, Royals had payroll constraints so its understandable.

Edited August 10, 2022 by jaysblue

[jaysblue]

Yeah.

 

The doomscrollers will scoff but it wasn't completely unreasonable to expect one or both of Pearson and Merryweather to be elite relievers this year. That Toronto has gotten NOTHING from them combined is pretty horrendous.

 

Calling me a doomscroller? Yes I was willing to roll the dice on Pearson or Merryweather becoming an elite arm in the bullpen and still am even for next season as well. Though when the plan fails a second and third time, what next? How long does the organization wait for Pearson to become an elite bullpen arm? 3 to 4 years?

[jaysblue]

The Jays will actually have to give up on Pearson being a starter or multi inning bulk guy. Not sure what their reluctance is/was on accepting his injury history and just letting him ramp it up for 1 inning at a time. Hopefully they let him come into spring training next year as strictly a 1 inning reliever. I think if he ever does anything in the bigs, it will be in that role.

 

100% on board with this. Pearson as a lights out BP arm is more valuable to the Blue Jays right now and in 2023 and 2024. Given the Blue Jays rotation at the top (Gausman, Manoah, Berrios) and window to contend for a World Series, hoping Pearson makes it as a starter won't help this organization during that timeframe. Yes if the Blue Jays were still rebuilding, you can be more patient with Pearson as a starter, though given the Jays position right now and for the next two/three years, Pearson is more valuable as an elite reliever on this team.