General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[RobinThicc]

Damn, no more W tweets

[gruber92]

They push collins down. How the hell does Zimmer survive? I thought for sure he was going with Whit coming in

 

Springer is going to be clogging up the DH spot for the next little while which means we won't be seeing Kirk and Jansen in the line up at the same time. No use for Collins right now.

[gruber92]

Merrifield is starting in CF tonight. We could see a lot of that with Springer playing hurt. When Springer is in the OF Merrifield probably plays a lot at 2B. After an awful April he's been really hot, hopefully he can keep it up.

 

I think the change of scenery and playing meaningful baseball will spark Merrifield. He still has a few good years left in the tank imo, very competitive player.

[Omar]

[Solaxys]

Damn, who knew Atkins knew how to do his job. Color me shocked. /s

[Terminator]

 

I don't know if I'd say "very strong" but I do think it's pretty solid now.

[BlueJaysFever]

The new guys should improve our pitcher group’s GB rate. Just as important as K%. Inducing ground balls is an underrated pitcher skill likely because of the emphasis on K% these days. I blame FIP. FIP is a fine stat but is used far too often with fWar as the holy grail while ignoring almost 50% of part of the game.

[Krylian]

The new guys should improve our pitcher group’s GB rate. Just as important as K%. Inducing ground balls is an underrated pitcher skill likely because of the emphasis on K% these days. I blame FIP. FIP is a fine stat but is used far too often with fWar as the holy grail while ignoring almost 50% of part of the game.

 

Hopefully most of those grounders go to Espinal or Chapman.

[43211234]

In September and beyond I'd rather Spencer Horwitz be taking the Collins spot on the roster.

[Jonn]

The new guys should improve our pitcher group’s GB rate. Just as important as K%. Inducing ground balls is an underrated pitcher skill likely because of the emphasis on K% these days. I blame FIP. FIP is a fine stat but is used far too often with fWar as the holy grail while ignoring almost 50% of part of the game.

 

Ground balls have a chance to sneak in or through for base hits. Swing and misses do not. Swing and Miss is King.

[John_Havok]

The new guys should improve our pitcher group’s GB rate. Just as important as K%. Inducing ground balls is an underrated pitcher skill likely because of the emphasis on K% these days. I blame FIP. FIP is a fine stat but is used far too often with fWar as the holy grail while ignoring almost 50% of part of the game.

 

Ground balls go for hits more often than flyballs, but generally do less damage. It's something that evens out over the course of a season and a pitcher cannot truly control what happens when he induces a ground ball, that's why it's not overly important when judging a pitcher's skill. Can have a guy with a 60% ground ball rate that sucks just as easily as a pitcher with a 30% GB rate. That's why K rate and walk rate are more important.

[BlueJaysFever]

Ground balls have a chance to sneak in or through for base hits. Swing and misses do not. Swing and Miss is King.

 

Ground balls go for hits more often than flyballs, but generally do less damage. It's something that evens out over the course of a season and a pitcher cannot truly control what happens when he induces a ground ball, that's why it's not overly important when judging a pitcher's skill. Can have a guy with a 60% ground ball rate that sucks just as easily as a pitcher with a 30% GB rate. That's why K rate and walk rate are more important.

 

I understand the theory and I don't disagree with K% being slightly more important. But two things that we don't tend to factor in, in the discussion - the efficiency of ground ball outs and the ability to get multiple outs on one pitch. Some people will say Gausman has been better than Manoah this year and based on fangraph stats he has. Based on bref stats it's the opposite. Who has actually been the more effective pitcher this season? I'd say Manoah based on what I value more.

[John_Havok]

I understand the theory and I don't disagree with K% being slightly more important. But two things that we don't tend to factor in, in the discussion - the efficiency of ground ball outs and the ability to get multiple outs on one pitch. Some people will say Gausman has been better than Manoah this year and based on fangraph stats he has. Based on bref stats it's the opposite. Who has actually been the more effective pitcher this season? I'd say Manoah based on what I value more.

 

Yes, but you’re still ignoring the part of the argument that once a ball is contacted by the bat, the pitcher has 0 control over the outcome of the play. Therefore, it is illogical to allocate the outcomes of said contact against the pitcher as something that is based on skill.

 

If two pitchers give up the nearly the same amount of ground balls over a season, and 1 pitcher gives up 50 more runs than another, saying that one pitcher is therefore worse than the other based on runs allowed(which is what bWAR does) isn’t nearly as useful as it seems.

[Jays24]

I may have missed this but who did the Jays send down to make room for the new guys?

[L54]

 

I don't know if I'd say "very strong" but I do think it's pretty solid now.

 

Less than a K/inning

 

It’s fine but it’s not “very strong”

[L54]

Manoah leading AL in IP

 

Is he a budding workhorse or will the innings catch up to him?

[mellowgold]

Manoah leading AL in IP

 

Is he a budding workhorse or will the innings catch up to him?

 

I think there's a good chance it's the former but I'd still be a little careful with his innings down the stretch.

[Laika]

Manoah leading AL in IP

 

Is he a budding workhorse or will the innings catch up to him?

 

Workhorse

 

I wonder what the career record is for hit batters..Manoah is going to break like 19 hands and 50 fingers in his career.

[G-Snarls]

Have decided I want them to catch the Yankees

[Omar]

Have decided I want them to catch the Yankees

 

Ten and a half games back is a stretch. But if we get to within 5 by the end of this month I am on that train!

[Jays24]

Have decided I want them to catch the Yankees

 

Ten and a half games back is a stretch. But if we get to within 5 by the end of this month I am on that train!

 

We needed a huge addition like Soto to get those vibes. I think we were like 8 games back or so in 2015 before going on that insane run. There's not enough MOJO on our team for that type of run imo.

[Eat My Shatkins]

We needed a huge addition like Soto to get those vibes. I think we were like 8 games back or so in 2015 before going on that insane run. There's not enough MOJO on our team for that type of run imo.

 

Sure Soto would have been nice, but if Vlad and Bo start playing like 6+ and 5+ WAR players again that'll be enough to really make a push down the stretch.

[L54]

I think there's a good chance it's the former but I'd still be a little careful with his innings down the stretch.

 

Workhorse

 

I wonder what the career record is for hit batters..Manoah is going to break like 19 hands and 50 fingers in his career.

 

Feels like a workhorse I agree. Low effort delivery, big and strong, stuff gets better as the game goes on.

[Jays24]

Sure Soto would have been nice, but if Vlad and Bo start playing like 6+ and 5+ WAR players again that'll be enough to really make a push down the stretch.

 

Agreed... there was a reason why we were favored to win our division prior to the season. It's very realisitic we continue our current run but we also have to hope the Yankees falter at the same time. The hills far too big for both to happen imo but I'd love to be wrong.

[G-Snarls]

We needed a huge addition like Soto to get those vibes. I think we were like 8 games back or so in 2015 before going on that insane run. There's not enough MOJO on our team for that type of run imo.

 

Even just making it close would be kewl

[RustyTrombone]

With the Yankees pitching going down the shitter recently there is a small chance. We were 16.5 GB of them on July 10 and after last nights its 10.5 so its possible.

[Laika]

7 games left against the Yankees. It is possible to catch them but they probably have to go like 6-1 head to head.

 

Other than NYY, Toronto's remaining schedule is not that scary. 9 against TB is not easy but that's more than offset by having so many games against bad and mediocre teams. 13 against Baltimore, they play the Cubs, Angels, Rangers, Pirates, the sad Red Sox...

 

The Yankees schedule is a bit tougher. Mariners, Mets, Brewers, Cardinals, Twins, and also the Rays for 9. It would be nice to see the Yankees scuffle in the next week against the Cards and M's.

[Solaxys]

[Laika]

7 games left against the Yankees. It is possible to catch them but they probably have to go like 6-1 head to head.

 

Other than NYY, Toronto's remaining schedule is not that scary. 9 against TB is not easy but that's more than offset by having so many games against bad and mediocre teams. 13 against Baltimore, they play the Cubs, Angels, Rangers, Pirates, the sad Red Sox...

 

The Yankees schedule is a bit tougher. Mariners, Mets, Brewers, Cardinals, Twins, and also the Rays for 9. It would be nice to see the Yankees scuffle in the next week against the Cards and M's.

 

More on this, Yankees have the 8th hardest strength of schedule remaining while the Blue Jays are 12th. So not a huge difference.

 

Fangraphs PROJECTS Toronto to win 32 games rest of season and the Yankees to win 31.

 

So they only project to pick up 1 game.

 

That's why they need to streak hard, and/or hope the Yankees scuffle, and/or dummy the Yanks head to head.

[BlueJaysFever]

Yes, but you’re still ignoring the part of the argument that once a ball is contacted by the bat, the pitcher has 0 control over the outcome of the play. Therefore, it is illogical to allocate the outcomes of said contact against the pitcher as something that is based on skill.

 

If two pitchers give up the nearly the same amount of ground balls over a season, and 1 pitcher gives up 50 more runs than another, saying that one pitcher is therefore worse than the other based on runs allowed(which is what bWAR does) isn’t nearly as useful as it seems.

 

I’m not really ignoring any aspect. I’ve look at the numbers quite in depth. Ground ball rates have the lowest of all offensive numbers in baseball outside of Ks and Pop ups by almost 50%. GB and pop outs (nearly as effective as Ks) are both repeatable skills with a significance of r = 0.85. So of course they aren’t as effective as a pop out or K pitcher which I’ve already conceded. A ground ball pitcher with a K% of around 20% is just as effective as a pitcher with a k% of 28% when you factor in efficiencies. This typically bears itself out in xFIP because it excludes ground balls while adding in fly balls and in general GB pitchers allow less fly balls.

 

It’s not a perfect science as logical arguments can be made against anything, but ignoring a repeatable skill, while useful in analyzing part of the whole, should never be taken as the whole. It’s not how they were intended to be used and sometimes I think people would be better off if they armed themselves with the limitations of the statistics before using the statistics( not aimed at you, just in general)