General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[JFD]

OK

 

I'll calm down

 

LOL

 

Your concerns are valid. He's regressing into Grichuk.

[max silver]

You're severely overreacting lol. First of all, by wRC+ Bo did better in 2021 than in 2020.

 

The "gone down every single year of his 4 year career" can be explained by:

Rookie year: only 212 PAs

Sophomore year: only 128 PAs, shortened season, pandemic, couldn't even play in his home park

Third year: his only actual full year, split between three different home parks

Fourth year: is 2/3 of the way through, he can regress to his mean

 

Bichette is whiffing and striking out more this year compared to last, while walking a bit more. His BABIP is the lowest in his career, so maybe that's regression to the mean or he's just being unlucky relative to his true talent. His avg. exit velo is 85th percentile, same as 2021, hard hit rate actually better - 89th percentile this year vs 83rd in 2021, barrel rate about the same, and there's nothing glaring in his batted ball data that indicates his swing has changed.

 

Bo is fine, he's basically a ~120 wRC+ true talent hitter which is reflected in his projections, and due to his swing happy tendencies is prone to being streaky. He's likely not a 140 wRC+ monster like his rookie season, but still a very good hitter that should slot within the top 5 of the lineup.

 

Conversely Bo's xWOBA is easily the worst of his career at .324. Actual WOBA is .314 so it's not like he's been massively unlucky this season. He has produced one good month worth of at bats surrounded by two average/mediocre months and 1 downright terrible month. Monthly WRC+ values are as follows:

 

April 45

May 143

June 102

July 99

 

Hopefully he can turn his season around in the second half, but his first half has been pretty underwhelming outside of the month of May.

[The Iceman]

Your concerns are valid. He's regressing into Grichuk.

 

And he will still want $30 mill to sign...

[Stangstag]

And he will still want $30 mill to sign...

 

He can walk then. Neither Bo or Vlad has proven they are worth 25+ million per year.

[Jays24]

I've been mentioning that Bo needs to be moved down to the 6th spot in the lineup. I am sick of how he's the only Jays player who has been babied on both sides of the ball his whole career. It's been back to back years where our current Second Baseman is a better SS defender than Bo and yet we haven't even tried switching Bo to 2B.

 

Think about every player on our roster and how they've been moved around.

- Vlad has batted 6th and got moved off 3B.

- Springer plays RF when Zimmer is in

- Teo/Gurriel have been replaced defensively more than I can count

- Biggio was sent to AAA

 

So I ask, why the special treatment for Bo and only Bo? He has never been defensively replaced, nor has be ever batted lower than 4th.

[Dagagad]

The weirdest thing about Tapia is that he is doing all this while going way back up in o swing %. Baseball is weird lol.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Bo is having a s***** year at the plate, but he's still on pace for like what...3 fWAR?

 

If that's the Jays biggest position player weakness/disappointment then we are f***ing laughing.

[max silver]

I've been mentioning that Bo needs to be moved down to the 6th spot in the lineup. I am sick of how he's the only Jays player who has been babied on both sides of the ball his whole career. It's been back to back years where our current Second Baseman is a better SS defender than Bo and yet we haven't even tried switching Bo to 2B.

 

Think about every player on our roster and how they've been moved around.

- Vlad has batted 6th and got moved off 3B.

- Springer plays RF when Zimmer is in

- Teo/Gurriel have been replaced defensively more than I can count

- Biggio was sent to AAA

 

So I ask, why the special treatment for Bo and only Bo? He has never been defensively replaced, nor has be ever batted lower than 4th.

 

Bo is playing beneath his talent level this season, and simply appears to be having a bad season. The constant whinging about Bo is getting old in a hurry. We don't know the Jays clubhouse dynamic, but by all accounts Bo is a fiercely driven/competitive guy. We really don't know how he would react to a demotion. He seems to be in the same mold as Marcus Semien where he busts his ass in order to condition himself to play every single day, and wants to play essentially every inning of every game. It may be in his best interest to back off a bit, but he's displayed a strong ability to remain healthy, and until this season was on an upward trajectory performance wise as well.

 

Cavan Biggio started the season with a -10 WRC+, and found himself out of a job. Despite Bo's struggles, he's still on pace for a 3 win season. Do you really think the club is going to be helped in any way by sending Bo down to AAA? Bo started the season slowly at the plate and in the field, but since May 1st he's been playing at over a 4 win pace when prorated to an entire season. For a player that's not been at his best that's still well above average.

 

It's really up for debate whether Semien was a better shortstop defender than Bo was last season. When you examine the metrics on a rate basis Bo was actually better by OAA than Semien was. Semien makes less errors at the position, but that's the only advantage he has over Bo. Bo has more range, a stronger arm, and has more ability to make tough plays than Semien. I wish I knew of a method for parsing defensive statistics over time, as I have a feeling that having the ability to examine Bo's OAA numbers of the course of this season would paint a very interesting picture. If I recall correctly he was in the range of -7 OAA at one point this season, and due to a very steady run of play over the last several months has managed to work his way up to exactly even at 0 OAA.

Edited July 26, 2022 by max silver

[Brownie19]

I've been mentioning that Bo needs to be moved down to the 6th spot in the lineup. I am sick of how he's the only Jays player who has been babied on both sides of the ball his whole career. It's been back to back years where our current Second Baseman is a better SS defender than Bo and yet we haven't even tried switching Bo to 2B.

 

Think about every player on our roster and how they've been moved around.

- Vlad has batted 6th and got moved off 3B.

- Springer plays RF when Zimmer is in

- Teo/Gurriel have been replaced defensively more than I can count

- Biggio was sent to AAA

 

So I ask, why the special treatment for Bo and only Bo? He has never been defensively replaced, nor has be ever batted lower than 4th.

 

Yikes.

 

The Jays knew there was a strong likelihood that Semien would only be a Blue Jay for 1 year. Why on earth would you hamper Bo's defensive development at SS by moving him off the position for 1 year, especially when Semien isn't 'miles' ahead of him defensively? Is Espinal better than him as a SS? Maybe, but I'm not 100% convinced he'll be a major league starter for the next 5 years (I love what he's been for the team, but he may get more and more exposed as a full time player. He hits lefties well, but righties are killing him. A platoon with Biggio may be our best bet in the playoffs).

 

I know defensive values are challenging and iffy, but Bo's defensive value this year is already more than it was last year and is ahead of guys like Trea Turner, Tim Anderson and Kiner-Falefa. It often takes SS's time to develop defensively and for a 24 year old, Bo is holding is own. You think KC should move Witt Jr. off SS too?

 

I can't say I disagree with moving Bo down in the lineup a bit more, but I do trust the Jays know what they are doing and know what's best for Bo and the team.

[Jays24]

Bo is playing beneath his talent level this season, and simply appears to be having a bad season. The constant whinging about Bo is getting old in a hurry. We don't know the Jays clubhouse dynamic, but by all accounts Bo is a fiercely driven/competitive guy. We really don't know how he would react to a demotion. He seems to be in the same mold as Marcus Semien where he busts his ass in order to condition himself to play every single day, and wants to play essentially every inning of every game. It may be in his best interest to back off a bit, but he's displayed a strong ability to remain healthy, and until this season was on an upward trajectory performance wise as well.

 

Cavan Biggio started the season with a -10 WRC+, and found himself out of a job. Despite Bo's struggles, he's still on pace for a 3 win season. Do you really think the club is going to be helped in any way by sending Bo down to AAA? Bo started the season slowly at the plate and in the field, but since May 1st he's been playing at over a 4 win pace when prorated to an entire season. For a player that's not been at his best that's still well above average.

 

It's really up for debate whether Semien was a better shortstop defender than Bo was last season. When you examine the metrics on a rate basis Bo was actually better by OAA than Semien was. Semien makes less errors at the position, but that's the only advantage he has over Bo. Bo has more range, a stronger arm, and has more ability to make tough plays than Semien. I wish I knew of a method for parsing defensive statistics over time, as I have a feeling that having the ability to examine Bo's OAA numbers of the course of this season would paint a very interesting picture. If I recall correctly he was in the range of -7 OAA at one point this season, and due to a very steady run of play over the last several months has managed to work his way up to exactly even at 0 OAA.

 

Not sure why you only focused on the Biggio there. The whole purpose of my post was to say every single player has been moved around based on their performance to whatever degree.

 

Bo is the only player that has been coddled and it could be for the very reason you stated about him being a very hard worker, which would make it more difficult to do the same with him. I just found it odd and was questioning it, that's all.

 

At the very least, he should move down in the batting order. And I wasn't saying he should be moved off SS full time but more so that guys have moved all around the diamond in an effort to maximize our teams performance. If you aren't performing, seemed only natural to put in Semien last year and Espinal this year to see how they'd handle the position.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Jays24

[polar bear]

You're severely overreacting lol. First of all, by wRC+ Bo did better in 2021 than in 2020.

 

The "gone down every single year of his 4 year career" can be explained by:

Rookie year: only 212 PAs

Sophomore year: only 128 PAs, shortened season, pandemic, couldn't even play in his home park

Third year: his only actual full year, split between three different home parks

Fourth year: is 2/3 of the way through, he can regress to his mean

 

Bichette is whiffing and striking out more this year compared to last, while walking a bit more. His BABIP is the lowest in his career, so maybe that's regression to the mean or he's just being unlucky relative to his true talent. His avg. exit velo is 85th percentile, same as 2021, hard hit rate actually better - 89th percentile this year vs 83rd in 2021, barrel rate about the same, and there's nothing glaring in his batted ball data that indicates his swing has changed.

 

Bo is fine, he's basically a ~120 wRC+ true talent hitter which is reflected in his projections, and due to his swing happy tendencies is prone to being streaky. He's likely not a 140 wRC+ monster like his rookie season, but still a very good hitter that should slot within the top 5 of the lineup.

 

Nonsense.

[Jays24]

Yikes.

 

The Jays knew there was a strong likelihood that Semien would only be a Blue Jay for 1 year. Why on earth would you hamper Bo's defensive development at SS by moving him off the position for 1 year, especially when Semien isn't 'miles' ahead of him defensively? Is Espinal better than him as a SS? Maybe, but I'm not 100% convinced he'll be a major league starter for the next 5 years (I love what he's been for the team, but he may get more and more exposed as a full time player. He hits lefties well, but righties are killing him. A platoon with Biggio may be our best bet in the playoffs).

 

I know defensive values are challenging and iffy, but Bo's defensive value this year is already more than it was last year and is ahead of guys like Trea Turner, Tim Anderson and Kiner-Falefa. It often takes SS's time to develop defensively and for a 24 year old, Bo is holding is own. You think KC should move Witt Jr. off SS too?

 

I can't say I disagree with moving Bo down in the lineup a bit more, but I do trust the Jays know what they are doing and know what's best for Bo and the team.

 

Difference between us and KC is that we are in win now mode, we aren't rebuilding. It was OK to let guys develop at the sake of wins and losses before but as the Montoyo firing showed, it's not ok anymore.

 

And like I just said above, no one was saying move him off SS full time. Springer is still our full time CF even though he moves to RF for Zimmer at times. I just find it curious that we didnt even try Semien last year and Espinal this year at SS for short stretches just to see how it would look. Imo, both would have been better defenders there.

 

We've had no problems moving everyone else on the roster around when required. Just find it odd treating Bo above everyone else and was curious maybe someone knew the reason for this.

[Brownie19]

Difference between us and KC is that we are in win now mode, we aren't rebuilding. It was OK to let guys develop at the sake of wins and losses before but as the Montoyo firing showed, it's not ok anymore.

 

And like I just said above, no one was saying move him off SS full time. Springer is still our full time CF even though he moves to RF for Zimmer at times. I just find it curious that we didnt even try Semien last year and Espinal this year at SS for short stretches just to see how it would look. Imo, both would have been better defenders there.

 

We've had no problems moving everyone else on the roster around when required. Just find it odd treating Bo above everyone else and was curious maybe someone knew the reason for this.

 

This is like talking to the wall. I'm out.

[BlueJaysFever]

This is like talking to the wall. I'm out.

 

He missed or ignored the whole development aspect of your post.

 

Bo is extremely athletic and works exceptionally hard. it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that he’s continued being groomed for SS. And it’s already paying off. I believe he was -.5 WAR defensively for a part of this season and he’s now even in dWAR.

[Jays24]

He missed or ignored the whole development aspect of your post.

 

Bo is extremely athletic and works exceptionally hard. it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that he’s continued being groomed for SS. And it’s already paying off. I believe he was -.5 WAR defensively for a part of this season and he’s now even in dWAR.

 

No one's saying he shouldn't still be developed as a SS. Just because if Bo was defensively replaced or moved to 2B here and there doesn't mean there's 0 chance he stays at SS.

 

Look at Gurriel... guy was the first one replaced defensively all of last year. This year he has improved a lot and now Teo is the one who is being substituted defensively. Does that mean neither should be developed as corner OFers?

 

We're in the winning window of our run where we are placing performance above development for every player but Bo it seems. Not hard to understand what I'm saying...

[BlueJaysFever]

I disagree. I don’t think it needs to be mutually exclusive.

[max silver]

No one's saying he shouldn't still be developed as a SS. Just because if Bo was defensively replaced or moved to 2B here and there doesn't mean there's 0 chance he stays at SS.

 

Look at Gurriel... guy was the first one replaced defensively all of last year. This year he has improved a lot and now Teo is the one who is being substituted defensively. Does that mean neither should be developed as corner OFers?

 

We're in the winning window of our run where we are placing performance above development for every player but Bo it seems. Not hard to understand what I'm saying...

 

I'm not sure why you keep beating this dead horse. The endless proclamations about how Bo is being "babied" or "coddled" aren't painting you in a very favorable light. Bo has been handed the shortstop reins for this season, and has been accordingly spending all of his defensive developmental time working to improve his play at the short stop position. Do you honestly think it would be beneficial for him or the team to start spending crucial early career defensive developmental time learning how to play second base instead in the middle of the season? Outside of a stretch of a few weeks of play where Bo made a lot of errors in the field has his short stop play been a cause for concern? He ended 2021 on a nice run of mostly error free play in the field, and started 2022 in a similar fashion. He had a rough stretch where he mishandled a lot of balls and made some throwing errors, but has pretty much eliminated that issue as the season has continued.

 

There is no need to panic here or keep harping on about moving Bo off of shortstop until he proves that he can't play it. The club has largely been playing stellar infield defense with Bo manning short stop. There is no need to fix something that isn't broken.

[Jays24]

I'm not sure why you keep beating this dead horse. The endless proclamations about how Bo is being "babied" or "coddled" aren't painting you in a very favorable light. Bo has been handed the shortstop reins for this season, and has been accordingly spending all of his defensive developmental time working to improve his play at the short stop position. Do you honestly think it would be beneficial for him or the team to start spending crucial early career defensive developmental time learning how to play second base instead in the middle of the season? Outside of a stretch of a few weeks of play where Bo made a lot of errors in the field has his short stop play been a cause for concern? He ended 2021 on a nice run of mostly error free play in the field, and started 2022 in a similar fashion. He had a rough stretch where he mishandled a lot of balls and made some throwing errors, but has pretty much eliminated that issue as the season has continued.

 

There is no need to panic here or keep harping on about moving Bo off of shortstop until he proves that he can't play it. The club has largely been playing stellar infield defense with Bo manning short stop. There is no need to fix something that isn't broken.

 

Love the response and agree with a lot of it. Maybe I'm just a bigger fan of rewarding Espinal and would like to see his skills get maximized defensively. Agreed that Bo hasn't been bad there at all... just felt Espy had a chance at gold glove status there.

[max silver]

Love the response and agree with a lot of it. Maybe I'm just a bigger fan of rewarding Espinal and would like to see his skills get maximized defensively. Agreed that Bo hasn't been bad there at all... just felt Espy had a chance at gold glove status there.

 

Espinal could likely contend for a gold glove at any of the infield positions, he's just that good with the glove. It remains to be seen whether he can continue to provide enough with the bat to continue being a full time regular. He has interesting splits this season, where he's mashed LHP to the tune of a 159 WRC+, but struggled against RHP with a 77 WRC+. When you break down his RHP splits a little further an interesting picture emerges, where he's perfectly passable at home with a 97 WRC+, but he's been terrible on the road at 60 WRC+. This is pretty odd as his splits vs LHP are basically even between home and away. Is this a bit of a random fluke? Has he faced better quality RHP opposition on the road vs at home?

[Brownie19]

Love the response and agree with a lot of it. Maybe I'm just a bigger fan of rewarding Espinal and would like to see his skills get maximized defensively. Agreed that Bo hasn't been bad there at all... just felt Espy had a chance at gold glove status there.

 

If Espinal was Nico Hoerner or Nick Madrigal (1st round draft picks that were expected to be part of the teams' core) then perhaps they would look at this situation and move Bo to 2nd Base. But that's not the position we're in. We had Espy come out of nowhere last year to produce enough offensively to play regularly. But there were obviously still huge question marks as to whether he could repeat and remain a starter...the high risk that he'd turn back into a pumpkin is the reason the Jays wouldn't make that switch this year. If Espy turns into a pumpkin, then you'd have to move Bo back to SS, after you just hampered his defensive development (and perhaps hurt your relationship with him) by making him learn and then play 2nd base.

 

Is Espy a starter over the next 3 years? I honestly don't know. He might turn into a really good platoon partner and utility infielder on a contending club.

 

Defensive development at premium positions like SS, C and CF are incredibly different than development in LF.

[Jays24]

If Espinal was Nico Hoerner or Nick Madrigal (1st round draft picks that were expected to be part of the teams' core) then perhaps they would look at this situation and move Bo to 2nd Base. But that's not the position we're in. We had Espy come out of nowhere last year to produce enough offensively to play regularly. But there were obviously still huge question marks as to whether he could repeat and remain a starter...the high risk that he'd turn back into a pumpkin is the reason the Jays wouldn't make that switch this year. If Espy turns into a pumpkin, then you'd have to move Bo back to SS, after you just hampered his defensive development (and perhaps hurt your relationship with him) by making him learn and then play 2nd base.

 

Is Espy a starter over the next 3 years? I honestly don't know. He might turn into a really good platoon partner and utility infielder on a contending club.

 

Defensive development at premium positions like SS, C and CF are incredibly different than development in LF.

 

I do understand the politics and I never said Bo should be moved off SS permanently. We have a scrub like Zimmer who is moving Springer off CF so I thought a guy like Espinal should have no issues moving Bo off SS at times.

 

Nothing permanent but just see how the defense performs with that alignment. I felt everyone else on the team has moved around any time it was needed so why no Bo. Good discussions though.

[Spanky99]

Lets Go Birds... aim them line drives...

 

[Spanky99]

Looks like Kooch is back to start Thursday against the Tigers...

 

[max silver]

Looks like Kooch is back to start Thursday against the Tigers...

 

 

Yay time to strap in for another trip on Kooches wild ride. Hopefully the bullpen is in good shape going into this game as there will most likely be a lot of innings to cover.

[Spanky99]

Yay time to strap in for another trip on Kooches wild ride. Hopefully the bullpen is in good shape going into this game as there will most likely be a lot of innings to cover.

 

Dude just needs to trust his fastball, hopefully they told him to work on it while sent down to just pound the f***ing zone with it, it's a good pitch.

[Ray]

If Yusei Kikuchi gets shelled against a historically inept offensive team like the Tigers (.620 team OPS), then I think there might be a legitimate case to DFA him on the spot.

[Spanky99]

Infirmary updates...

 

[Laika]

ah nate pearson lat strain

 

is that the first time we have heard of that?

 

mono mystery solved?

[Spanky99]

If Yusei Kikuchi gets shelled against a historically inept offensive team like the Tigers (.620 team OPS), then I think there might be a legitimate case to DFA him on the spot.

 

lol... not happening mate.

[Spanky99]

ah nate pearson lat strain

 

is that the first time we have heard of that?

 

mono mystery solved?

 

No, he was building up to a starter role after the mono, he then injured his lat in game, shut em down for 6 weeks.