General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Jimcanuck]

I wonder if he'd take something close to the 15/$440M offer from one of them.

 

Expect so. The funny thing is, with the return from Soto and Bell trades, Nats will accelerate their rebuild by a good chunk of years, and be good again probably 2-3 years hence.

[BTS]

Expect so. The funny thing is, with the return from Soto and Bell trades, Nats will accelerate their rebuild by a good chunk of years, and be good again probably 2-3 years hence.

 

I don't think they'll get much for Bell. Teams don't seem to play for bat-only rentals.

[BigCecil]

He was offered almost half a billion dollars. He's already won that bet, unless he's really worried that his great-great-great-great-great grandchildren might have to get jobs one day...

 

For sure he was offered a lot. Turning it down is the bet. I said the same thing as you in many ways about what Judge turned down. Good for them if they want to take the risk. Soto or Judge could f*** their knee or hip this weekend in a game and then they stupidly walked away from potentially hundreds of millions. Personally I don't get it. But good for them.

[Laika]

Soto can get that money from any other org. Well almost.

 

Might as well force a trade and not play for the f***ing Nats

 

They are a sad sorry org

[Krylian]

I wonder if he'd take something close to the 15/$440M offer from one of them.

 

Don't think so. I think he'd be looking for a higher AAV than $29.3m. I don't see him signing for 15 years unless a team wants to commit $500M+. Crazy? Yes. Maybe something like 12 and $420m?

[Dagagad]

Soto for the Yankees is terrifying. Perfect fit and allows them not to give a bad contract to Judge.

[Orgfiller]

I think people are making way too big of a deal out of Soto turning down the money that he got. He's already won a championship and is a 23 year old superstar on track for the Hall of Fame. He has complete control over the rest of his career. He's earning $17M this season and even if he breaks his leg tomorrow and is out for the year he's still getting $20M+ the next year and likely $25M+ the year after. He's already set for life as are his future generations. The odds of him sustaining a literally career ending injury are very low, and his 50th percentile outcome as a player moving forward is still earning him $200-300M on the conservative side.

 

When you have no risk, why not bet on yourself and see how well you can really do without being constrained to negotiating against only one (bad) team? This isn't an Ozzie Albies scenario where you might accept getting swindled when you're making league min. because you have to consider that the risk of sustaining an injury could actually screw up you and your family's future especially given the situation you grew up in. Juan Soto retires tomorrow and he's already in the 1%, or he retires 2.5 seasons from now and he has $60M in earnings, or most likely he continues down his current path and he's making an absurd amount of money but his lifestyle isn't changing that much.

[Solaxys]

I don't know if what Olney said (about MLB talent) holds much merit.

 

Nationals have a lot of contracts coming off next year (and I mean like 70% of their MLB roster).

They aren't remotely close to putting together a team of starters who can net ~ 2 WAR per year to smell a WC spot and they have a meh farm as is.

Why would they want a haul of MLB-ready talent or already-in MLB talent (unless they want to flip) and start their service time (especially with Corbin/Strasburg contracts still kicking)?

 

Nationals should predominantly be looking for prospects with a lot of upside but are still 2 yrs away.

They want one or two low-risk, high-ceiling assets so they can start rebuilding their franchise and then a healthy pool of high-risk, average-floor assets.

Get some 1 or 2-yr contracts for their MLB roster from FA next year, flip whoever does well for more prospect capital - this also lets you sell the club to prospect buyers who will have a low-salary club with decent profit margins.

They could add Corbin's contract to the deal as well to make the club enticing to a new buyer.

 

I don't see them going for more than two top-100 prospects/in-MLB talent with a lot of control and pre-arb until 2024/2025, which most teams can provide, and then a lot of good fodder.

On our end, ya, we have just a strong as bait as any of the other teams in Moreno & Tiedemann, both are pieces you can build your team around - a very athletic and smart player with good bat-to-ball skills & a budding above-average starter (a Bo & Manoah, if you will)

 

If Soto requires more than that/Nats want more than that, I feel you'd need longer talks because you need to add the stipulation that Soto signs long-term - and that's a shitshow for offseason not trade deadline where you are trying to fix holes, not necessarily get generational talent and leave yourself with glaring issues for postseason.

 

Imagine if we sold most of our tradeable prospects for Soto and then had nothing to get high-end relief/pitching depth, y'all would be giddy for like the first 2 days and then start screaming at Atkins for not doing a better job

[Dagagad]

If part of the deal is that Soto signs long term then the price goes up.

 

You are buying 2.5 years of Soto. If you are buying 10 years of control, that costs more.

[Jimcanuck]

Soto is not going to negotiate with another club, in season, as part of trade talks.

 

After he gets moved or the offseason, sure.

[Stangstag]

Soto is not going to negotiate with another club, in season, as part of trade talks.

 

After he gets moved or the offseason, sure.

 

Yeah I agree, not gonna happen.

 

You’re trading for 2.5 years of Soto, that’s it. Still a massive piece, he’s a very safe bet to produce 10+ WAR over that span of time. Probably closer to 15 WAR.

[Spanky99]

I think Soto turning these offers down is being driven by two things:

 

1. He doesn't want to stay in Washington

2. Boras' ego

 

#1 for sure, he wasn't a happy camper having to answer those questions yesterday.

[John_Havok]

Soto is not going to negotiate with another club, in season, as part of trade talks.

 

After he gets moved or the offseason, sure.

 

That's not a certainty. If I'm the team that's this close to getting a trade done and I ask permission to talk extension before the trade is finalized... Washington would be silly to say no to that since they would be able to increase the asking price as a result.

 

It might even be a sticking point for the team that wants to trade for him that they want to at least get some preliminary talks going.

[BigCecil]

Soto is not going to negotiate with another club, in season, as part of trade talks.

 

After he gets moved or the offseason, sure.

 

Absolutely. And who would want him at that price/term? He is a great player but do those deals ever work out well? Watching Pujols and Miggy is a constant reminder of the pitfalls, granted Soto is only 23 and inflation has been higher than in many years. This talk is all for fun anyway. Extremely doubtful it happens with the Jays. One thing about this FO though us they are not predictable. Many said a Ramirez deal was a pipe dream and reporting later indicates it wasn't. They have traded away a #1 pick and 2 of their top prospects already to get Chappy and Berrios. They fired Charlie when I didn't see the coming. Who knows.

[Dagagad]

Absolutely. And who would want him at that price/term? He is a great player but do those deals ever work out well? Watching Pujols and Miggy is a constant reminder of the pitfalls, granted Soto is only 23 and inflation has been higher than in many years. This talk is all for fun anyway. Extremely doubtful it happens with the Jays. One thing about this FO though us they are not predictable. Many said a Ramirez deal was a pipe dream and reporting later indicates it wasn't. They have traded away a #1 pick and 2 of their top prospects already to get Chappy and Berrios. They fired Charlie when I didn't see the coming. Who knows.

 

I’d do it. With his hitting approach, you’d expect him to be worth 30m per year right into his early thirties. I’ll eat the last 3/4 years.

[Jimcanuck]

That's not a certainty. If I'm the team that's this close to getting a trade done and I ask permission to talk extension before the trade is finalized... Washington would be silly to say no to that since they would be able to increase the asking price as a result.

 

It might even be a sticking point for the team that wants to trade for him that they want to at least get some preliminary talks going.

 

Not Washington that would say no.

[glory]

I wonder if he'd take something close to the 15/$440M offer from one of them.

 

I don't think so. He wants to have the highest AAV in baseball or close to it (and I'm sure Boras wants that too). He's so young that he doesn't need to trap himself in a 15 year deal with a lower AAV, and let's be honest, $29m a year for someone of his caliber is not going to get it done regardless of which team is offering it.

 

I definitely think he'd be more open to an extension with the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc, but the money still has to be there. Wouldn't surprise me if Boras is trying to get $500m.

[BigCecil]

I’d do it. With his hitting approach, you’d expect him to be worth 30m per year right into his early thirties. I’ll eat the last 3/4 years.

 

Hmmm. He is 23 so maybe. He is having a "down" year and his wRC+ is over 150 and OBP over .400. Not much not to love. His D I guess. Still at the time Pujols left St Louis there was a lot of this kind of talk about the generational bat he was, but he has stunk for 5-6 years and St Louis was thrilled he only came back on the goodbye tour. Granted, he wasn't 23, which is a big differentiator. With inflation and the NPV of those dollars 10-14 out, one can wrap their head around it for Soto. Especially since it's not our $.

[John_Havok]

I don't think so. He wants to have the highest AAV in baseball or close to it (and I'm sure Boras wants that too). He's so young that he doesn't need to trap himself in a 15 year deal with a lower AAV, and let's be honest, $29m a year for someone of his caliber is not going to get it done regardless of which team is offering it.

 

I definitely think he'd be more open to an extension with the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc, but the money still has to be there. Wouldn't surprise me if Boras is trying to get $500m.

 

If he's shooting for a 45 million AAV... that might be hard to get unless he gives up length. Scherzer has 43.333 and its only a 3 year deal. He and Boras are nuts if they think they're going to land a 15 year deal at 45-ish million dollars. Nobody would want that kidn of risk profile on the books for that long even though he's just 23 right now and Scherzer is 40.

 

If he's shooting for highest AAV among position players, he'd need to get 37 million per year after his arb years are over. That's the other problem, he can't expect to get his highest AAV until after the next 2 seasons are done thanks to arbitration.

 

Methinks whatever contract he ends up signing - it will have an opt-out clause.

[Ehjays]

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/alek-manoah-strikes-out-three-while-mic-d-up-at-all-star-game

 

 

Monoah mic'd up

[Spanky99]

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/alek-manoah-strikes-out-three-while-mic-d-up-at-all-star-game

 

 

Monoah mic'd up

 

Hahaha... awesome!

[Stangstag]

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/alek-manoah-strikes-out-three-while-mic-d-up-at-all-star-game

 

 

Monoah mic'd up

 

Niceeee. 3ks in the allstar game is no joke. Great job by Alek

[Solaxys]

 

lol; tampering?

[WryNGinger]

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/alek-manoah-strikes-out-three-while-mic-d-up-at-all-star-game

 

 

Monoah mic'd up

 

Love this kid. Kinda cocky/confident but not arrogant.

[Stangstag]

 

lol; tampering?

 

He’s not a free agent and has no say in where he’s traded…. So no lol

[Solaxys]

[Spanky99]

Hah!

 

[Spanky99]

Bigman joins My man Stieb...

 

[John_Havok]

Jays considering an All-Star game host bid for 2027

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-discussing-possible-bid-for-2027-all-star-game-with-major-league-baseball/

 

Tidbit from the article:

 

"Final plans aren’t yet known, but initial discussions included the outfield being redone with elevated bullpens and asymmetric walls this winter (some season-ticket subscribers were recently informed that they’ll be relocated in 2023). The rest of the lower bowl reset will start in the off-season to follow."

[InvincibleTiger]

DraftKings offering a free bet up to $100, win or lose. Bet $10 on Jays to win + any Jay to hit a HR vs Red Sox this Friday.

 

Already at $50. 2 more days to reach $100 hopefully. Free money

Edited July 20, 2022 by InvincibleTiger