General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Dagagad]

I feel like todays outing from berrios is the nail in the coffin for Kikuchi starting his next one. You can’t have two of those guys starting.

 

I think I’d like to see a phantom IL stint, and Lawrence up. Maybe piggback Lawrence and Castillo for Kikuchi or maybe start both with the doubleheader this week.

 

Even if they are bad. They are unlikely to be as bad.

[Brownie19]

Are there any aces on the market at the deadline?

 

I’m sick of the pretty good guy with control thing. If we are going to sell real prospects, let’s get an ace.

 

I'm starting to think we should be selling - not buying. When Biggio is hitting better than Bo, Teo, Chapman and Espinal - you know we're in trouble. Unless magic Pete Walker can fix Berrios and/or Kikuchi REALLY soon - this team has too many holes.

 

Maybe...just maybe 'fixing' pitchers is essentially a crapshoot and Pete Walker isn't god - he just got lucky a few times in a row.

[Stangstag]

I'm starting to think we should be selling - not buying. When Biggio is hitting better than Bo, Teo, Chapman and Espinal - you know we're in trouble. Unless magic Pete Walker can fix Berrios and/or Kikuchi REALLY soon - this team has too many holes.

 

Maybe...just maybe 'fixing' pitchers is essentially a crapshoot and Pete Walker isn't god - he just got lucky a few times in a row.

 

Selling??? Come on dude

[John_Havok]

Selling??? Come on dude

 

Yeah selling is a bit much. But I would not be shocked to see someone unexpected get traded in the right deal. Jansen is a clear trade bait option, and honestly I think Teo or Gurriel could be also in the right deal.

[Terminator]

I'm starting to think we should be selling - not buying. When Biggio is hitting better than Bo, Teo, Chapman and Espinal - you know we're in trouble. Unless magic Pete Walker can fix Berrios and/or Kikuchi REALLY soon - this team has too many holes.

 

Maybe...just maybe 'fixing' pitchers is essentially a crapshoot and Pete Walker isn't god - he just got lucky a few times in a row.

 

Lol fangraphs thinks we have a 93.5% chance of making the playoffs

[connorp]

Yeah I’d bet making the playoffs and losing in the WC will be an acceptable outcome. Just because they missed it last year. I think that saves peoples job. Imo. I’m not sure it gets Chuck an extension behind next year though. I think stakes will be higher next year. Just an opinion

[Stangstag]

This is a pretty good analysis on Berrios:

 

 

TLDR: Berrios’ worst pitch is his fastball, and he’s throwing it more this year than ever before. It gets absolutely hammered, even in previous years. Possible that Pete Walker is giving him the bad advice of throwing his fastball more often

[Laika]

This is a pretty good analysis on Berrios:

 

 

TLDR: Berrios’ worst pitch is his fastball, and he’s throwing it more this year than ever before. It gets absolutely hammered, even in previous years. Possible that Pete Walker is giving him the bad advice of throwing his fastball more often

 

I dunno. His pitch mix this year looks about the same as 2018 and 2019.

 

Yes, the sinker featured more in 2020 and 2021.

 

But observationally he's having trouble hitting his spots with everything so I am not sure the 4 seamer % is "by design" this season.

[Terminator]

I dunno. His pitch mix this year looks about the same as 2018 and 2019.

 

Yes, the sinker featured more in 2020 and 2021.

 

But observationally he's having trouble hitting his spots with everything so I am not sure the 4 seamer % is "by design" this season.

 

Yeah sometimes the pitch mix is by design and sometimes it's by necessity.

[Solaxys]

Lol fangraphs thinks we have a 93.5% chance of making the playoffs

 

Think 'selling' is the wrong word but, more appropriately phrased, should we relinquish the farm to make a deep playoff run this year or retool?

The latter involves making trades like Jansen to the Astros for their best pitching prospect who is almost MLB-ready as a reliever, possibly a starter, rather than trading Groshans/Martinez/Moreno.

 

---

We have some glaring holes even if we do make playoffs, and they are getting exposed every single time we face a possible postseason candidate (we have a winning record on Astros & Sox, but we haven't faced their resurgence yet and Astros are now projected to have the highest odds to win it all this season).

93% to make the WC berth and then eh, depending on a crapshoot to win a postseason series is a very aggravating way to go through your season.

 

The most egregious of it is pitching (as a whole) as we only have two starters who have had success (we'll see if Gausman can have two strong back-to-back starts tomorrow) - Berrios/Kikuchi both have negative WAR.

Stripling can be a starter but as seen against Yankees, he could at best go 3-4 innings defaulting to a bullpen - the veterans in the BP can't be trusted to not give up a run or get BABIP'd in case of Cimber/Phelps (even Mayza is unravelling).

In the postseason, moving Berrios (in his current form) and Kikuchi to the bullpen does not inspire confidence.

In other words, a combined bullpen game that the Rays can pull off is just not feasible with our current roster.

Don't get me wrong - Castillo & Gage look promising, but this is their rookie year so we don't have much data on how they will fare across a season, what adjustments will teams make and in response, are adjustments available for these two to make.

 

We also have significant inconsistency from Bo & Teo (300 PAs), both defensively and offensively (2 and 5 hitters).

In fact, if Kirk has not become the player he has offensively, we'd have just Vladdy to feel ecstatic about and, perhaps with tempered optimism, Biggio & Gurriel.

Our DH options involve Moreno (a rookie), Tapia or Zimmer - assuming the projected postseason roster is in play. I hate the way we use our DH spot (even though it makes sense) because it severely limits Moreno's playing time and his ability to grow/learn major league pitching.

 

In effect, we need

1. A Bonafide postseason starting pitcher (unless Berrios finds consistency in the next 4 - though two of those starts are against As and Royals, so he has to show up for the Rays and Mariners games)

2. Two swing/miss relievers (at least one of whom is as close to elite as you can get)

3. A LH DH Bat

 

And even then, you need Bo/Teo to start having competitive ABs (Teo has been having better ABs but he also started chasing that off-plate slider again) with their defense not being a liability, Chapman's offense to regress to the mean (he's still en route to be a 3 WAR guy as is), and no injuries whatsoever in the OF because our bench in that department (again) is Tapia/Zimmer.

 

---

As for the discussion regarding FO, I have mixed feelings.

 

I think Atkins wanted a much more competitive front-line and was willing to sign Verlander, Ray (but his vaccination status probably put a halt on this), and JRam. I think given all the restrictions he has had in front of him, he still managed to get Chapman and Gausman (and not leave those positions unanswered).

He possibly had to take a gamble on Kikuchi (who he might've only been able to sign with a 3-yr contract else Kikuchi would've signed somewhere else) because that was the only 'starter' remaining on the market who was willing to come to Toronto. Pete Walker obviously signed off on the pet project that is Kikuchi - projecting that he can tweak something to make him another Ray.

You just don't know what the realistic backend of building the roster was like and can't really sign off saying "oh they were just reckless or didn't care". Like, there is no way you can say Berrios being bad is on Atkins considering the history Berrios has had since his time in majors.

 

Bullpen is another matter but I wasn't paying attention to what amazing bullpen arms were available in the offseason - any one that we could've realistically signed?

 

That said, the pitching scouting/development needs some work (whether its already in motion and is taking time - you see the development in Hernandez, Tiedemann; or simply needs a revamp). Look at LAD, lots of starting pitching injuries - yet managed to find Anderson and turn him into a bonafide ace-esque pitcher. Yankees found Taillon, Holmes etc. We are dishing heavy money/prospect-player capital for average pitching while most of the high-end competitive clubs are finding relatively cheap assets and turning them into all-stars.

 

/essay done

Edited June 27, 2022 by Solaxys

[max silver]

Think 'selling' is the wrong word but, more appropriately phrased, should we relinquish the farm to make a deep playoff run this year or retool?

The latter involves making trades like Jansen to the Astros for their best pitching prospect who is almost MLB-ready as a reliever, possibly a starter, rather than trading Groshans/Martinez/Moreno.

 

---

We have some glaring holes even if we do make playoffs, and they are getting exposed every single time we face a possible postseason candidate (we have a winning record on Astros & Sox, but we haven't faced their resurgence yet and Astros are now projected to have the highest odds to win it all this season).

93% to make the WC berth and then eh, depending on a crapshoot to win a game a postseason series is a very aggravating way to go through your season.

 

The most egregious of it is pitching (as a whole) as we only have two starters who have had success (we'll see if Gausman can have two strong back-to-back starts tomorrow).

Stripling can be a starter but as seen against Yankees, he could at best go 3-4 innings defaulting to a bullpen - The veterans in the BP can't be trusted to not give up a run or get BABIP'd in case of Cimber/Phelps (even Mayza is unravelling). In the postseason, moving Berrios (in his current form) and Kikuchi to the bullpen does not inspire confidence. In other words, a combined bullpen game that the Rays can pull off is just not feasible with our current roster.

Don't get me wrong Castillo & Gage look promising, but this is their rookie year so we don't have much data on how they will fare across a season, what adjustments will teams make and in response, are adjustments available for these two to make.

 

We also have significant inconsistency from Bo & Teo (300 PAs), both defensively and offensively (2 and 5 hitters).

In fact, if Kirk has not become the player he has offensively, we'd have just Vladdy to feel ecstatic about and, perhaps with tempered optimism, Biggio & Gurriel.

Our DH options involve Moreno (a rookie), Tapia or Zimmer - assuming the projected postseason roster is in play. I hate the way we use our DH spot (even though it makes sense) because it severely limits Moreno's playing time and his ability to grow/learn major league pitching.

 

In effect, we need a

1. Bonafide postseason starting pitcher (unless Berrios finds consistency in the next 4 - though two of those starts are against As and Royals, so he has to show up for the Rays and Mariners games)

2. Two swing/miss relievers (at least one of whom is as close to elite as you can get)

3. A LH DH Bat (or even just a good DH bat)

 

And even then, you need Bo/Teo to start having competitive ABs (Teo has been having better ABs but he also started off-plate chasing that slider again) with their defense not being a liability, Chapman's offense to regress to the mean (he's still on route to be a 3 WAR guy as is), and no injuries whatsoever in the OF because our bench in that department (again) is Tapia/Zimmer.

 

You may not have noticed but Teo has produced a 165 WRC+ over the last 30 days. He had a very slow start after the oblique injury but has been in peak form offensively for quite some time now. Bo has been good at the plate for nearly two months now. He was actually hitting the ball hard with regularity in April but since May the hits have been falling for him. Over his last 48 games he's produced a 129 WRC+, which is quite a bit higher than his career average. Each of these guys will have frustrating at bats where they swing at pitches out of the strike zone but neither of them is an issue offensively right now.

 

The team does not need a DH bat, there are already multiple players on the roster who regularly receive DH time in order to keep their bats in the lineup and keep them fresh/healthy. The Jays regularly run players like Springer, Kirk, Gurriel and Vladdy through the DH spot. Does this really look like something that requires some kind of upgrade?

[connorp]

I actually hadn’t realized that about Teo. Numbers have been awesome last month. Wouldn’t have guessed. Always been a fanboy

[Solaxys]

Each of these guys will have frustrating at bats where they swing at pitches out of the strike zone but neither of them is an issue offensively right now.

 

That's fair re-Teo's offense. Both their K-rates stick out like a sore thumb - 26.7% over those last 100 PAs and 25.2% for Bo. Both of them defensively as well, shrugs. Teo might still be favoring the oblique for the on-field plays or scared of injuring it again.

 

 

The team does not need a DH bat, there are already multiple players on the roster who regularly receive DH time in order to keep their bats in the lineup and keep them fresh/healthy. The Jays regularly run players like Springer, Kirk, Gurriel and Vladdy through the DH spot. Does this really look like something that requires some kind of upgrade?

 

We don't need a DH bat now but we will for postseason, which is what I meant to say there.

 

Your posteason line up is 1B - Vlad, 2B - Biggio/Espinal, SS - Bo, 3B - Chapman, C - Kirk, OF - Springer, Gurriel, Teoscar.

That leaves your DH spot to be Espinal/Biggio (whoever's not on 2B), Zimmer, Moreno/Jansen, Tapia, Lopez/Collins.

 

The DH bat is the lowest priority anyway 'cause you can just as well run Moreno as C (if he continues to look good) and Kirk at DH or Jansen/Kirk if Moreno is traded.

Edited June 27, 2022 by Solaxys

[Terminator]

Think 'selling' is the wrong word but, more appropriately phrased, should we relinquish the farm to make a deep playoff run this year or retool?

 

We should 100% be buyers. The playoffs will be easy to make and once we are there we need a reliever or two and another SP. This lineup with Gausman and Manoah anchoring a playoff rotation is a big time contender.

[jaysblue]

The Jays could use another left-handed bat who is actually decent + a top starter + 2 or 3 elite BP arms.

 

Yikes, that is a shopping list! We were talking about Josh Bell in April/May, and that was before the need for a top starter and BP arms.

[jaysblue]

We should 100% be buyers. The playoffs will be easy to make and once we are there we need a reliever or two and another SP. This lineup with Gausman and Manoah anchoring a playoff rotation is a big time contender.

 

That's a big shopping list. If the Blue Jays front office actually spent time in the offseason looking at the bench and bullpen, maybe at the trade deadline the Jays could have mainly focused on bringing in a big bat or big arm. Instead, we're talking about filling 4 or 5 holes on this roster which is a lot at the trade deadline.

[Terminator]

That's a big shopping list. If the Blue Jays front office actually spent time in the offseason looking at the bench and bullpen, maybe at the trade deadline the Jays could have mainly focused on bringing in a big bat or big arm. Instead, we're talking about filling 4 or 5 holes on this roster which is a lot at the trade deadline.

 

That's a big list? Lol I think almost every contender in the league will be looking at adding a starting pitcher and a reliever or two. Very very common trade deadline needs for a contender to have.

[Terminator]

Also, keep in mind that the FO has the team in position with a 95% chance of making the playoffs and that we are discussing trade deadline acquisitions like they a formality to happen at this point.

[max silver]

That's a big shopping list. If the Blue Jays front office actually spent time in the offseason looking at the bench and bullpen, maybe at the trade deadline the Jays could have mainly focused on bringing in a big bat or big arm. Instead, we're talking about filling 4 or 5 holes on this roster which is a lot at the trade deadline.

 

With everyone at full health the bench is actually pretty decent. Backup catcher is either Jansen or Moreno which is basically elite compared to most teams, super utility player of Biggio is very good assuming he continues to produce, and even Tapia as 4th outfielder isn't the end of the world if he can continue to pitch in with some hits like he has been. A late game defensive replacement center fielder who can actually hit his weight would certainly be nice to have, but that's the only glaring weakness on the bench to my eyes.

[Solaxys]

Its unfortunate that in no universe do I see Arte giving up Ohtani. He'd literally be perfect to what we need atm.

I don't see the Angels extending him (since Arte is definitely anti-luxury tax) but they'll give him a QO, he'll turn it down, and they'll take the draft compensation.

Despite Angels' farm being one of the worst, Arte is going to milk Ohtani's star power to fill the seats than improve the farm system.

 

Ohtani will also be 31 in 2024 for his FA, so is he going to command the 40-45M AAV that he expects based on last year considering age/health?

[Ehjays]

[Stangstag]

Its unfortunate that in no universe do I see Arte giving up Ohtani. He'd literally be perfect to what we need atm.

I don't see the Angels extending him (since Arte is definitely anti-luxury tax) but they'll give him a QO, he'll turn it down, and they'll take the draft compensation.

Despite Angels' farm being one of the worst, Arte is going to milk Ohtani's star power to fill the seats than improve the farm system.

 

Ohtani will also be 31 in 2024 for his FA, so is he going to command the 40-45M AAV that he expects based on last year considering age/health?

 

Yep. Trout and Ohtani aren’t going anywhere until their contracts are done

[Dokken]

The Jays could use another left-handed bat who is actually decent + a top starter + 2 or 3 elite BP arms.

 

Yikes, that is a shopping list! We were talking about Josh Bell in April/May, and that was before the need for a top starter and BP arms.

 

WOW: Schwarber already has 1.6 fWAR this season after putting up 2.8 fWAR last season. The Phillies are on the hook for 4 years, $79M, so we'll have to see how that pans out in the long run, but so far so good. Then there is Tellez. Not many people around here had much use for him before he was traded. He sure burned the Jays on Sunday with 2 home runs in the first 2 innings........

[Spanky99]

Big week coming up! 3 against Bosox and 5 against the Rays. Wake up fellas.

[jaysblue]

That's a big list? Lol I think almost every contender in the league will be looking at adding a starting pitcher and a reliever or two. Very very common trade deadline needs for a contender to have.

 

Depends on if we're talking about elite guys at all those positions or middle tier/average guys just to fill holes on the roster.

 

Adding a top arm that is a solid No. 2 or 3 starter, along with two elite relievers and an above average left-handed bat is a lot. It's not impossible, though you would be digging a lot into the farm system. Also, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and other teams will be buyers most likely as well.

 

Like you said, the Jays will be locks at making the Postseason, so definitely they will be buyers. Atkins has been active at trade deadlines the previous two seasons buying, so this season won't be any different IMO. Though the Jays can't go after broken down projects and expect that will be enough. Hope they get a player or arm or both that could push the team over the top.

Edited June 27, 2022 by jaysblue

[jaysblue]

Big week coming up! 3 against Bosox and 5 against the Rays. Wake up fellas.

 

What time is it meat?

[jaysblue]

WOW: Schwarber already has 1.6 fWAR this season after putting up 2.8 fWAR last season. The Phillies are on the hook for 4 years, $79M, so we'll have to see how that pans out in the long run, but so far so good. Then there is Tellez. Not many people around here had much use for him before he was traded. He sure burned the Jays on Sunday with 2 home runs in the first 2 innings........

 

Schwarber would be a nice fit in the Jays lineup as a DH/1B/LF bat. If the Phillies want to get rid of his contract, probably can get him at a fair price.

[jaysblue]

With everyone at full health the bench is actually pretty decent. Backup catcher is either Jansen or Moreno which is basically elite compared to most teams, super utility player of Biggio is very good assuming he continues to produce, and even Tapia as 4th outfielder isn't the end of the world if he can continue to pitch in with some hits like he has been. A late game defensive replacement center fielder who can actually hit his weight would certainly be nice to have, but that's the only glaring weakness on the bench to my eyes.

 

As a front office, you have to prepare for injuries during the season and the great teams have that depth to replace those players when injuries happen and don't lose much of a beat. Look at teams like the Yankees and Rays. It's easy to say "with everyone at full health." The Jays lineup at full health is amazing though when you start losing a big piece or two, it becomes weak very quickly especially when you have guys filling out the bench who are below replacement level who you just picked up at the end of Spring Training.

 

One of Espinal and Biggio on the bench (Biggio struggled and was in the minors earlier so the Jays never had him as an option) along with one of Jansen/Moreno as the second catcher is a great start will give you that. Tapia has been played way too much obviously though that is because of injuries and mismanagement. He still has produced a -0.8 WAR so he's hurting the Jays more every time he is out there! The Bradley Zimmer project should have ended weeks ago and its crazy to imagine he still has a roster spot. It's crazy this team couldn't find a reliable 4th outfielder during the offseason. Filling out the bench or bullpen shouldn't be that difficult during the offseason.

[Spanky99]

What time is it meat?

 

[Stangstag]

Big week coming up! 3 against Bosox and 5 against the Rays. Wake up fellas.

 

Gotta go 4-4 or better