General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Eat My Shatkins]

Only six teams in the AL above .500

 

Four of them in the AL East

 

What a shocker

[Stangstag]

Only six teams in the AL above .500

 

Four of them in the AL East

 

What a shocker

 

This s*** is tiring. Any other division the Jays would have made the playoffs a handful of times in the 2000s, including last year.

 

AL East is ******** and i’m all for going back to just East/West divisions and doing away with the Central.

 

The schedule balancing that’s supposed to come in 2023 should help us a bunch

[Eat My Shatkins]

This s*** is tiring. Any other division the Jays would have made the playoffs a handful of times in the 2000s, including last year.

 

AL East is ******** and i’m all for going back to just East/West divisions and doing away with the Central.

 

The schedule balancing that’s supposed to come in 2023 should help us a bunch

 

Yep.

 

The extra playoff spots and balanced schedule are a godsend for the AL east teams

[Spanky99]

Only six teams in the AL above .500

 

Four of them in the AL East

 

What a shocker

 

And all of them holding a playoff spot... a lot of pundits might be right on this, IIRC. Maybe 4 teams in the NL West, but I haven't checked lately. Nah, just 3...

[max silver]

Most teams, even contending ones, get by with a backup catcher of Collins' calibre or lower, we'll be fine with Kirk/Collins for a few weeks, no need to interrupt Moreno's development. If he was rocking a 130 or higher wRC+ I'd probably have a different opinion, but I think giving him reps at AAA is the better move for the future without selling out the present all that much.

 

Moreno started a little slow in April as he had basically no spring training due to Visa issues. He only produced a 73 WRC+. As the season has gone on he's gotten much better, producing a 135 WRC+ from May 1 onward. I still agree that it's best for him to stay in AAA as Jansen is only expected to miss a few weeks, but if this were expected to be a longer term injury I suspect Moreno would have already gotten the call up to the MLB squad.

[L54]

If everyone stayed healthy I expected he would have stayed in AAA the whole year given the 2 guys we had, the position he plays, and his results so far. When Jansen got hurt in April it was clearly too early developmentally. I think he's been there long enough with good enough results that you should be ok bringing him up for 2 weeks as an injury fill in as long as he continues to play(I would just plug him straight into Jansen's role) assuming you believe he's the best option for a contending team. I think he's a better option than Collins. I'm not suggesting he come up for good. Barring him blowing the cover off the ball for 2 weeks I'd just send him back down when Jansen was healthy.

 

The Jays might have a different approach with the plan that when he comes up here's here for good, they don't want to demote him again, and they don't think he's learned everything he has to learn in AAA yet. The last part I absolutely agree with. I just think a contending team should be using their best option as an injury fill in as long as it doesn't disrupt development. I don't think playing for 2 weeks in the majors on a Jansen type catching rotation(3 of 5 games) and then going back down disrupts development.

 

I admittedly have no idea how service time works anymore but I don’t think bringing Moreno up for a couple weeks is the best idea.

 

I’d like to see the guy torch AAA before getting the call. 95% of prospects now are butt cheeks once they get to the MLB. I’m not convinced Gabby’s bat is so special that it plays right away.

[L54]

Has Moreno played one defensive inning at third this year?

[Jimcanuck]

Has Moreno played one defensive inning at third this year?

 

Nope, I think Chapman and the continued emergence of Espinal has put a kibbosh on that, or maybe they saw enough to say "nope"

 

A good question to ask Atkins

[Spanky99]

Nope, I think Chapman and the continued emergence of Espinal has put a kibbosh on that, or maybe they saw enough to say "nope"

 

A good question to ask Atkins

 

*kibosh

[Omar]

I see Charlie benched Kirk today so he could DH Vlady even though it's an off day tomorrow.

 

Kirk is exhausted......from raking!

[Ehjays]

I see Charlie benched Kirk today so he could DH Vlady even though it's an off day tomorrow.

 

We all knew he would do this.Its your daily head scratcher

[Dagagad]

I strongly doubt that rest decisions are entirely or mostly Charlie’s call. They probably have some kind of system and they rest guys when they need rested.

 

Also, Kirk caught last night. It’s expected he wouldn’t be in the lineup today.

[glory]

It's possible/likely that rest days are out of Charlie's control, but batting Tapia 5th is 100% him. That's undisputable. No one is that insane in this sport except him.

[Big BlueJay]

I strongly doubt that rest decisions are entirely or mostly Charlie’s call. They probably have some kind of system and they rest guys when they need rested.

 

Also, Kirk caught last night. It’s expected he wouldn’t be in the lineup today.

 

Not at catcher again but you'd think he'd put the hottest hitter in at DH, the whole team gets tomorrow off ffs

[Dagagad]

I don’t know… are we super unusual compared to other teams. Are we the only team that uses off days to give guys two days off?

 

This stuff seems overblown. Tapia at 5 is probably a leftie rightie thing and I think generally managers way overdo that but also not that big a deal.

 

But yea, the former I don’t care. The latter is questionable but still not outside the norm.

 

My only gripe with Charlie is that he waits too long to get relievers up. That’s it.

 

He seems to be average or above in everything else.

[Brownie19]

It's possible/likely that rest days are out of Charlie's control, but batting Tapia 5th is 100% him. That's undisputable. No one is that insane in this sport except him.

 

At least Tapia (and the rest of the offense) is pretty hot right now.

[BigCecil]

Just looking at the math on our chances to win the Division. Depressing probabilities even if you assume significant regression for the Yanks rest of the way.

 

They got off to an incredible start banking W's and we were just pretty good. Every L we shrug off to it being early and we will heat up later matters.

 

We'll see what the math says nearing the deadline. Its going to influence FO approach one would think significantly in terms of what we are shooting for for playoffs.

[Brownie19]

Not at catcher again but you'd think he'd put the hottest hitter in at DH, the whole team gets tomorrow off ffs

 

Again - the Jays pay a team of experts to manage the use and health of their players. They know significantly more than any of us do and would understand if there are underlying issues we don't know about. The science and research may show that 2 days off right now is exactly what Teo needs. Maybe he's fighting something right now. Maybe Vlad is a little banged up so DH today and day off tomorrow is the way to go. Maybe Kirk will have to shoulder the majority of the catching for the next 2-4 weeks, so 2 days off right now is exactly what he needs.

 

It isn't difficult to understand there are people with significantly more knowledge than us making these calls. Questioning them with your little to no understanding of the situation is just....dumb.

[max silver]

I don’t know… are we super unusual compared to other teams. Are we the only team that uses off days to give guys two days off?

 

This stuff seems overblown. Tapia at 5 is probably a leftie rightie thing and I think generally managers way overdo that but also not that big a deal.

 

But yea, the former I don’t care. The latter is questionable but still not outside the norm.

 

My only gripe with Charlie is that he waits too long to get relievers up. That’s it.

 

He seems to be average or above in everything else.

 

Earlier in the season when most of the team's better offensive contributors were largely struggling game to game lineup construction may have been worth griping about, but with the team being hot offensively top to bottom this really isn't such a big deal. If the game is close in the late innings this type of lineup allows for some very potent bats to come off of the bench, but lately this hasn't been the case very much even when the B lineup starts the game as the team has been scoring runs in bunches.

[Spanky99]

I don’t know… are we super unusual compared to other teams. Are we the only team that uses off days to give guys two days off?

 

This stuff seems overblown. Tapia at 5 is probably a leftie rightie thing and I think generally managers way overdo that but also not that big a deal.

 

But yea, the former I don’t care. The latter is questionable but still not outside the norm.

 

My only gripe with Charlie is that he waits too long to get relievers up. That’s it.

 

He seems to be average or above in everything else.

 

*shudders*

[Spanky99]

Just looking at the math on our chances to win the Division. Depressing probabilities even if you assume significant regression for the Yanks rest of the way.

 

They got off to an incredible start banking W's and we were just pretty good. Every L we shrug off to it being early and we will heat up later matters.

 

We'll see what the math says nearing the deadline. Its going to influence FO approach one would think significantly in terms of what we are shooting for for playoffs.

 

BC strength of schedule is a thing, buddy.

[Ehjays]

All-star voting starts today, you are allowed to vote 5 times a day, lets make sure its not an All-Yankee lineup.

 

https://www.mlb.com/all-star/ballot?affiliateId=asb-headline-club-2022

[Stangstag]

I strongly doubt that rest decisions are entirely or mostly Charlie’s call. They probably have some kind of system and they rest guys when they need rested.

 

Also, Kirk caught last night. It’s expected he wouldn’t be in the lineup today.

 

I don’t even think it’s about NEEDING rest, the front office clearly has some kind of schedule where they have specific rest days for certain players no matter the circumstances.

 

They feel that this minimizes overall wear and tear on the roster and means nobody goes on the DL for avoidable muscle/soft tissue injuries like hamstring strains etc.

 

I think the results have been good so far, only lost Teo and Jansen to oblique injuries which are kinda random. Arm injuries are maybe harder to prevent other than limiting innings which we’ve seen them do this year. Jansen’s latest injury is also random chance.

[Stangstag]

BC strength of schedule is a thing, buddy.

 

Pretty sure the current odds take strength of schedule into account. Meaning the Yankees are still much more likely to win the division.

 

Good article from yesterday here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-the-next-two-weeks-are-crucial-for-the-blue-jays/

 

Even if New York plays just .500 ball the rest of the season, Toronto has to maintain its pace (62–46, .574) in order to finish with a one-game lead (avoiding a tiebreaker now that MLB has killed off game 163).

[Spanky99]

Pretty sure the current odds take strength of schedule into account. Meaning the Yankees are still much more likely to win the division.

 

Good article from yesterday here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-the-next-two-weeks-are-crucial-for-the-blue-jays/

 

Even if New York plays just .500 ball the rest of the season, Toronto has to maintain its pace (62–46, .574) in order to finish with a one-game lead (avoiding a tiebreaker now that MLB has killed off game 163).

 

Easy Peasy...

[BigCecil]

BC strength of schedule is a thing, buddy.

 

Agree. But the math is the math as are the probabilities. Its assuming regression by the Yanks and a boost for us given schedule.

[Spanky99]

Agree. But the math is the math as are the probabilities. Its assuming regression by the Yanks and a boost for us given schedule.

 

Can't argue that, a computer knows far more than me dependant on algorithms, lol

[InsideThePark]

I admittedly have no idea how service time works anymore but I don’t think bringing Moreno up for a couple weeks is the best idea.

 

I’d like to see the guy torch AAA before getting the call. 95% of prospects now are butt cheeks once they get to the MLB. I’m not convinced Gabby’s bat is so special that it plays right away.

 

Service time isn't really an issue. We have him for this year and 6 more regardless if he comes up now or starts next year with the Jays or anytime inbetween. The only way they get an extra year is if he stays in AAA until 2 weeks into next season and doesn't perform well enough to get a full year credit under the new CBA rules. IIRC that's top 3 in rookie of the year voting gets the full year? Even super 2 shouldn't be an issue. If he came up now and stayed up I think he would probably qualify as a super 2, but up for 2 weeks, go back down come back in September or whenever wouldn't make him a super 2.

 

I'm more concerned about Collins defense TBH. If Kirk starts 4 out of every 5 games at catcher than great. I can stomach Collins for 1 start per 5 games. I feel like he'll be starting 2 or 3 of them to keep Kirk fresh(DHing). Even if he doesn't hit all that well Moreno with a 75 wRC+ I feel like is easily better than the median result you get out of Collins who will likely have bad defense and you just hope he can get hot with the bat. Of course Moreno could be much worse than that as well.

 

It's not some awful decision. I can see the other side of it for sure. Just saying I'm leaning towards getting a look at Gabby.

[Big BlueJay]

Again - the Jays pay a team of experts to manage the use and health of their players. They know significantly more than any of us do and would understand if there are underlying issues we don't know about. The science and research may show that 2 days off right now is exactly what Teo needs. Maybe he's fighting something right now. Maybe Vlad is a little banged up so DH today and day off tomorrow is the way to go. Maybe Kirk will have to shoulder the majority of the catching for the next 2-4 weeks, so 2 days off right now is exactly what he needs.

 

It isn't difficult to understand there are people with significantly more knowledge than us making these calls. Questioning them with your little to no understanding of the situation is just....dumb.

 

Yeah okay, Montoyo genius me stupid is the obvious answer

[L54]

Service time isn't really an issue. We have him for this year and 6 more regardless if he comes up now or starts next year with the Jays or anytime inbetween. The only way they get an extra year is if he stays in AAA until 2 weeks into next season and doesn't perform well enough to get a full year credit under the new CBA rules. IIRC that's top 3 in rookie of the year voting gets the full year? Even super 2 shouldn't be an issue. If he came up now and stayed up I think he would probably qualify as a super 2, but up for 2 weeks, go back down come back in September or whenever wouldn't make him a super 2.

 

I'm more concerned about Collins defense TBH. If Kirk starts 4 out of every 5 games at catcher than great. I can stomach Collins for 1 start per 5 games. I feel like he'll be starting 2 or 3 of them to keep Kirk fresh(DHing). Even if he doesn't hit all that well Moreno with a 75 wRC+ I feel like is easily better than the median result you get out of Collins who will likely have bad defense and you just hope he can get hot with the bat. Of course Moreno could be much worse than that as well.

 

It's not some awful decision. I can see the other side of it for sure. Just saying I'm leaning towards getting a look at Gabby.

 

Makes sense. You’re right I doubt they plan on gaining an extra year by holding him down long enough next year to make it happen. Agreed Super 2 shouldn’t really factor in to the decision.

 

It’s an awkward spot to be in right now. He’s definitely better defensively than Collins, but I’m not convinced his bat is ready. If there was a clear opening with an extended absence by then Jano then I could get behind it. If it’s only a month I think they hold tight.

 

Not sure what the right answer is but it’s a good problem to have