Grichuk to the Rockies

[Olerud363]

With all due respect, I'm gonna trust the stats over your eye-test on this one. Grichuk had -4.9 BsR in 2021. Tapia was a +3.9. Those numbers are consistent with their longer-term track records as well. And BsR takes into account dumb base-running plays.

 

Tapia is a massive upgrade on the basepaths.

 

Villar and Tapia - The thinking man only gambles when the pay-off is above the risk. To chance the extra base or not? A deep problem but the swift should take the chance if the extra bases gained are greater than the failures to a ratio computed using the principles of sabermetrics. As thinking men we take risks that make sense in this statistical framework.

 

Grant -- AAARGGG. Villar caught going to second.... FFHHHHHH Tapia picked off. Stupid!!!!

[Olerud363]

Villar and Tapia - The thinking man only gambles when the pay-off is above the risk. To chance the extra base or not? A deep problem but the swift should take the chance if the extra bases gained are greater than the failures to a ratio computed using the principles of sabermetrics. As thinking men we take risks that make sense in this statistical framework.

 

Grant -- AAARGGG. Villar caught going to second.... FFHHHHHH Tapia picked off. Stupid!!!!

 

I mean, if Grant has some useful info, like the formula for baserunning is flawed he should share it. His observations that Tapia makes a mistake every time Grant watches is dumb... unless Grant only watched twice or something.

 

If he has some stats on baserunning outs made + pickoffs that would be a useful start but wouldn't tell the entire story, need to know advancements.

 

And smart people have looked at this... I'm always willing to consider the formula is flawed, but people need to explain why and offer a better formula. If Grant can see Tapia getting picked off and s***, it should be in the stats. If it's not we should join Grant in pressuring fangraphs to fix the stats

[Grant77]

I mean, if Grant has some useful info, like the formula for baserunning is flawed he should share it. His observations that Tapia makes a mistake every time Grant watches is dumb... unless Grant only watched twice or something.

 

If he has some stats on baserunning outs made + pickoffs that would be a useful start but wouldn't tell the entire story, need to know advancements.

 

And smart people have looked at this... I'm always willing to consider the formula is flawed, but people need to explain why and offer a better formula. If Grant can see Tapia getting picked off and s***, it should be in the stats. If it's not we should join Grant in pressuring fangraphs to fix the stats

 

Your premise is that I don't believe that BsR statistics are accurate?

 

I guess you have to come up with some sort of lie to create your fanciful stories, but that was never said and certainly isn't true. Tapia is extremely fast and that is borne out in the numbers.

[BTS]

I guess I should have elaborated instead of simply bolding the misinformation in your quote.

 

Being you must be so exhausting.

[Terminator]

According to statcast Tapia is in the 81st percentile for sprint speed and Grichuk is in the 75th. So Tapia isn’t even that much faster yet his BsR is much better. So if Tapia really is that stupid on the basepaths yet he’s still that much better than Grichuk, then wouldn’t Grichuk have to be even dumber?

[Laika]

According to statcast Tapia is in the 81st percentile for sprint speed and Grichuk is in the 75th. So Tapia isn’t even that much faster yet his BsR is much better. So if Tapia really is that stupid on the basepaths yet he’s still that much better than Grichuk, then wouldn’t Grichuk have to be even dumber?

 

lmao

[Laika]

So speed in the statcast era is somewhat interesting to measure, if you guys didn't already know.

 

Sprint speed =/ basepath functional speed

 

That is to say, home to first times are or can be a better predictor of stolen bases (and baserunning) than raw sprint speeds. I think I have heard and read this from smart people. Acceleration is key for baserunning.

 

By average sprint speed Tapia is 132nd and Grichuk is 157th

 

But by home to 1st times, Tapia is 40th and Grichuk is 241st

 

Both numbers from 2021

 

Pretty interesting eh

[Laika]

Also, despite what the average sprint speed is Tapia has a better top gear. He accumulates a few "bolts" which under statcast are sprints at 30 feet per second or greater. Grichuk has none of those in 2021 or 2020.

 

The whole point of this is that sprint speed percentile is probably not a great measure of baseball game speed.

[Grant77]

According to statcast Tapia is in the 81st percentile for sprint speed and Grichuk is in the 75th. So Tapia isn’t even that much faster yet his BsR is much better. So if Tapia really is that stupid on the basepaths yet he’s still that much better than Grichuk, then wouldn’t Grichuk have to be even dumber?

 

No comment was made by me on Grichuk's baserunning ability.

 

As pointed out by Laika above, sprint speed is not exactly a useful measure of baserunning ability to begin with. It should be expected that players of similar height and ageshave a similar sprint speed and they do.

 

That it is not very useful as a metric should be rather intuitive considering that the game is based on short bursts of speed over distances as little as 60 feet, when considering secondary leads.

[Terminator]

We need a stat that measures how dumb a player is when he’s on the basepaths. We can call it the Retarded Baserunning Runs Above Average.

 

So for example a guy like Tilapia who is legit fast rates as 40th in home to first times but he gets penalized because his RBRAA is so awful it really craters his overall baserunning score. Jonathan Villar’s RBRAA would have to be setting all time records. Never seen such retarded baserunning in my entire life and that includes watching my nephew’s little league games.

 

I wonder if Fangraphs would let me write a Community Article on this?

[L54]

We need a stat that measures how dumb a player is when he’s on the basepaths. We can call it the Retarded Baserunning Runs Above Average.

 

So for example a guy like Tilapia who is legit fast rates as 40th in home to first times but he gets penalized because his RBRAA is so awful it really craters his overall baserunning score. Jonathan Villar’s RBRAA would have to be setting all time records. Never seen such retarded baserunning in my entire life and that includes watching my nephew’s little league games.

 

I wonder if Fangraphs would let me write a Community Article on this?

 

You’d have better luck publishing an article on Lia Thomas over at Fangraphs

[Jimcanuck]

Badler's take:

 

The Blue Jays and Rockies swapped outfielders, with Randal Grichuk going to Colorado and Raimel Tapia heading to Toronto. The deal has significant upside for the Blue Jays, who were able to pry away a potential breakout prospect from the lower levels of the Rockies' system in Adrian Pinto.

 

BLUE JAYS ACQUIRE

 

Adrian Pinto, 2B/SS

Age: 19

 

At 5-foot-6, Pinto is small, but he has an exciting blend of tools and performance. Ranked as the No. 60 international signing from the 2019 class after he signed out of Venezuela, Pinto made his pro debut last year in the Dominican Summer League and hit .360/.486/.543 in 54 games, ranking second in the league in batting average and on-base percentage, while his slugging average ranked fourth. He walked (38) more than twice as often as he struck out (18) and led the league in stolen bases with 41 in 49 tries. Pinto's swing is quick and direct. He has a small strike zone that he uses to his advantage, recognizing pitches well and using excellent hand-eye coordination that leads to a high contact rate. Pinto has some sneaky juice for his size, but his offensive game is centered around getting on base with below-average power. His plus-plus speed is another weapon, as is his plus arm. He spent most of his time last year at second base, with time at shortstop and center field as well, although he likely fits best at second.

 

Raimel Tapia, OF

Age: 28

 

The Blue Jays are set up well in the outfield between Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., so Tapia provides the team with a solid outfielder off the bench and a lefty to complement those righthanded bats. He has some center field experience but has primarily played left field, posting 1.0 WAR last year (per Baseball-Reference) while hitting .273/.327/.372 in 533 plate appearances.

 

ROCKIES ACQUIRE

 

Randal Grichuk, OF

Age: 30

 

Grichuk lacks plate discipline but does drive the ball with impact, creating a high-power, low-OBP hitter who hit .241/.281/.423 in 545 plate appearances last year, good for a 0.8 WAR season split between center and right field. The shape of Grichuk's and Tapia's skill sets are different, but their overall projected value this year is similar, with both scheduled to hit free agency after the 2023 season. Given that the Rockies project to be one of the worst teams in baseball this year, it's strange to see them give up a prospect like Pinto to make that swap.

[TwistedLogic]

I guess I should have elaborated instead of simply bolding the misinformation in your quote.

 

Tapia is a very fast and very bad baserunner, much like Jonathan Villar, who also has a positive BsR. I didn't compare him to Grichuk or suggest that he wasn't more valuable in that regard.

 

He's going to be used in pinch running situations here and you will see a boneheaded runner that makes some spectacular plays along with getting picked off at inopportune times and running into outs. He's done one of those things almost every time I watch and he's absolutely notorious for it in Colorado.

 

You really didn't need to elaborate. I said that I would trust the stats over whatever anecdotal conclusions you drew up based on what you think you saw and I'm still going to do that.

 

You say that Tapia is a boneheaded base-runner that is constantly getting picked off and running into outs. That he's done one of those things almost every time you watch.

 

So let's look at the numbers.

 

Raimel Tapia had 533 plate appearances in 2021. Based on Baseball Reference's baserunning leaderboards, he got picked off 3 times and thrown out on the base paths 2 times all year long. He had a 77% stolen-base rate, for 20 SB and 6 CS.

 

You keep comparing him to Villar, so let's look at Villar's numbers.

 

Jonathan Villar had 505 plate appearances in 2021. He was picked off 7 times and made 5 outs on the base paths. His success rate on stolen base attempts was 67%, for 14 SB and 7 CS. He was considerably worse than Tapia in every number.

 

It's entirely possible that 2021 was an anomaly and super-scout Grant77 was just remembering what he's seen in past years. So let's expand the sample size.

 

Tapia made 5 "bone-headed" outs (picked off or thrown out while advancing) in 2021, 1 such out in 2020, 8 outs in 2019, and 0 in 2018 (small PA sample).

 

Compare that to Villar who made 12 dumb outs in 2021, 7 in 2020, 12 in 2019 and 9 in 2018.

 

Tapia's made a dumb out 14 times in the last four years. Villar has done it 40 times.

 

To further put those numbers in perspective, the league leaders in those types of outs each year include people like Jose Altuve (13 outs in 2021), Francisco Lindor (7 outs in 2020), Tommy Pham (16 outs in 2019) and Javier Baez (12 outs in 2018).

 

Tapia also had an XBT% (the percentage of times a runner takes more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double) of 44 in 2021. That was plainly in the middle of the league and pretty much exactly in line with his career numbers.

 

Compare that to a guy like Grichuk, who was in the bottom 15% of the league in 2021 with an XBT% of just 31.

 

Tapia is a very fast runner that has been squarely average or above average in smartness/dumbness stats for the past several years. So yeah... on a guy who ran into an out twice and got picked off three times over the course of an entire season, you made the claim that he makes a boneheaded base-running play almost every time you watch. That's pretty much a perfect case study of why nobody should care about what some guy on a forum thinks he's seen with his own eyes.

Edited March 25, 2022 by TwistedLogic

[jaysblue]

Do the Rockies still have Eric Young Jr?

[Jimcanuck]

You really didn't need to elaborate. I said that I would trust the stats over whatever anecdotal conclusions you drew up based on what you think you saw and I'm still going to do that.

 

You say that Tapia is a boneheaded base-runner that is constantly getting picked off and running into outs. That he's done one of those things almost every time you watch.

 

So let's look at the numbers.

 

Raimel Tapia had 533 plate appearances in 2021. Based on Baseball Reference's baserunning leaderboards, he got picked off 3 times and thrown out on the base paths 2 times all year long. He had a 77% stolen-base rate, for 20 SB and 6 CS.

 

You keep comparing him to Villar, so let's look at Villar's numbers.

 

Jonathan Villar had 505 plate appearances in 2021. He was picked off 7 times and made 5 outs on the base paths. His success rate on stolen base attempts was 67%, for 14 SB and 7 CS. He was considerably worse than Tapia in every number.

 

It's entirely possible that 2021 was an anomaly and super-scout Grant77 was just remembering what he's seen in past years. So let's expand the sample size.

 

Tapia made 5 "bone-headed" outs (picked off or thrown out while advancing) in 2021, 1 such out in 2020, 8 outs in 2019, and 0 in 2018 (small PA sample).

 

Compare that to Villar who made 12 dumb outs in 2021, 7 in 2020, 12 in 2019 and 9 in 2018.

 

Tapia's made a dumb out 14 times in the last four years. Villar has done it 40 times.

 

To further put those numbers in perspective, the league leaders in those types of outs each year include people like Jose Altuve (13 outs in 2021), Francisco Lindor (7 outs in 2020), Tommy Pham (16 outs in 2019) and Javier Baez (12 outs in 2018).

 

Tapia also had an XBT% (the percentage of times a runner takes more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double) of 44 in 2021. That was plainly in the middle of the league and pretty much exactly in line with his career numbers.

 

Compare that to a guy like Grichuk, who was in the bottom 15% of the league in 2021 with an XBT% of just 31.

 

Tapia is a very fast runner that has been squarely average or above average in smartness/dumbness stats for the past several years. So yeah... on a guy who ran into an out twice and got picked off three times over the course of an entire season, you made the claim that he makes a boneheaded base-running play almost every time you watch. That's pretty much a perfect case study of why nobody should care about what some guy on a forum thinks he's seen with his own eyes.

 

Good evidence based response >>>>>> anecdotal rememberings.

[Olerud363]

You really didn't need to elaborate. I said that I would trust the stats over whatever anecdotal conclusions you drew up based on what you think you saw and I'm still going to do that.

 

Tapia is a very fast runner that has been squarely average or above average in smartness/dumbness stats for the past several years. So yeah... on a guy who ran into an out twice and got picked off three times over the course of an entire season, you made the claim that he makes a boneheaded base-running play almost every time you watch. That's pretty much a perfect case study of why nobody should care about what some guy on a forum thinks he's seen with his own eyes.

 

Even Villar has been a positive baserunner every single year, with a great score in 2019.

 

For the same reason that Justin Smoak doesn't lead the league in caught stealing he doesn't lead the league in stupid outs either... the caught stealing and stupid outs leaders are usually fast guys that are gaining more than they lose from their risks.

[Olerud363]

I guess I should have elaborated instead of simply bolding the misinformation in your quote.

 

Tapia is a very fast and very bad baserunner, much like Jonathan Villar, who also has a positive BsR.

 

Tapia is not a bad baserunner and neither is Villar. You are wrong.

 

It's like saying Bo Bichette is a bad hitter because he is stupid and swings at bad pitches.

 

The numbers say Bo Bichette is a good hitter even though he swing at bad pitches because the positive out weighs the negative.

 

Villar and Tapia are very good baserunners because the positive out weighs the negative. Is it because they are fast? Partly. However if they were truly stupid and ran into 50 outs a year or something they'd have horrible baserunning scores.

 

So their high scores aren't 'because they are fast', it is because they are taking calculated risks which overall pay off.

[TheHurl]

Kinda gotta feel bad for Grichuk. Right as the team is a world series contender, he gets traded to the f***ing Rockies, which is baseball purgatory.

 

All the best to him. He had his good moments, but the was consistently inconsistent.

 

He was supposedly miserable here, and he's at the best spot to revive some value and get traded again.

[Scion]

You really didn't need to elaborate. I said that I would trust the stats over whatever anecdotal conclusions you drew up based on what you think you saw and I'm still going to do that.

 

You say that Tapia is a boneheaded base-runner that is constantly getting picked off and running into outs. That he's done one of those things almost every time you watch.

 

So let's look at the numbers.

 

Raimel Tapia had 533 plate appearances in 2021. Based on Baseball Reference's baserunning leaderboards, he got picked off 3 times and thrown out on the base paths 2 times all year long. He had a 77% stolen-base rate, for 20 SB and 6 CS.

 

You keep comparing him to Villar, so let's look at Villar's numbers.

 

Jonathan Villar had 505 plate appearances in 2021. He was picked off 7 times and made 5 outs on the base paths. His success rate on stolen base attempts was 67%, for 14 SB and 7 CS. He was considerably worse than Tapia in every number.

 

It's entirely possible that 2021 was an anomaly and super-scout Grant77 was just remembering what he's seen in past years. So let's expand the sample size.

 

Tapia made 5 "bone-headed" outs (picked off or thrown out while advancing) in 2021, 1 such out in 2020, 8 outs in 2019, and 0 in 2018 (small PA sample).

 

Compare that to Villar who made 12 dumb outs in 2021, 7 in 2020, 12 in 2019 and 9 in 2018.

 

Tapia's made a dumb out 14 times in the last four years. Villar has done it 40 times.

 

To further put those numbers in perspective, the league leaders in those types of outs each year include people like Jose Altuve (13 outs in 2021), Francisco Lindor (7 outs in 2020), Tommy Pham (16 outs in 2019) and Javier Baez (12 outs in 2018).

 

Tapia also had an XBT% (the percentage of times a runner takes more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double) of 44 in 2021. That was plainly in the middle of the league and pretty much exactly in line with his career numbers.

 

Compare that to a guy like Grichuk, who was in the bottom 15% of the league in 2021 with an XBT% of just 31.

 

Tapia is a very fast runner that has been squarely average or above average in smartness/dumbness stats for the past several years. So yeah... on a guy who ran into an out twice and got picked off three times over the course of an entire season, you made the claim that he makes a boneheaded base-running play almost every time you watch. That's pretty much a perfect case study of why nobody should care about what some guy on a forum thinks he's seen with his own eyes.

 

Mic drop...

[Laika]

You really didn't need to elaborate. I said that I would trust the stats over whatever anecdotal conclusions you drew up based on what you think you saw and I'm still going to do that.

 

You say that Tapia is a boneheaded base-runner that is constantly getting picked off and running into outs. That he's done one of those things almost every time you watch.

 

So let's look at the numbers.

 

Raimel Tapia had 533 plate appearances in 2021. Based on Baseball Reference's baserunning leaderboards, he got picked off 3 times and thrown out on the base paths 2 times all year long. He had a 77% stolen-base rate, for 20 SB and 6 CS.

 

You keep comparing him to Villar, so let's look at Villar's numbers.

 

Jonathan Villar had 505 plate appearances in 2021. He was picked off 7 times and made 5 outs on the base paths. His success rate on stolen base attempts was 67%, for 14 SB and 7 CS. He was considerably worse than Tapia in every number.

 

It's entirely possible that 2021 was an anomaly and super-scout Grant77 was just remembering what he's seen in past years. So let's expand the sample size.

 

Tapia made 5 "bone-headed" outs (picked off or thrown out while advancing) in 2021, 1 such out in 2020, 8 outs in 2019, and 0 in 2018 (small PA sample).

 

Compare that to Villar who made 12 dumb outs in 2021, 7 in 2020, 12 in 2019 and 9 in 2018.

 

Tapia's made a dumb out 14 times in the last four years. Villar has done it 40 times.

 

To further put those numbers in perspective, the league leaders in those types of outs each year include people like Jose Altuve (13 outs in 2021), Francisco Lindor (7 outs in 2020), Tommy Pham (16 outs in 2019) and Javier Baez (12 outs in 2018).

 

Tapia also had an XBT% (the percentage of times a runner takes more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double) of 44 in 2021. That was plainly in the middle of the league and pretty much exactly in line with his career numbers.

 

Compare that to a guy like Grichuk, who was in the bottom 15% of the league in 2021 with an XBT% of just 31.

 

Tapia is a very fast runner that has been squarely average or above average in smartness/dumbness stats for the past several years. So yeah... on a guy who ran into an out twice and got picked off three times over the course of an entire season, you made the claim that he makes a boneheaded base-running play almost every time you watch. That's pretty much a perfect case study of why nobody should care about what some guy on a forum thinks he's seen with his own eyes.

 

murder

[Spanky99]

Should've kept Grichuk, not a fan of this move, unless they have something lined up?! Maybe Conforto got jabbed,

[Spanky99]

Because we've seen what Charlie did with Panik.

 

This^^^

[Spanky99]

Last two years combined:

 

TAPIA

1.8 bWAR

1.2 fWAR

739 PA

 

GRICHUK

1.2 bWAR

0.9 fWAR

776 PA

 

Toronto was on the hook for $20.66M for two years of Grichuk. He had negative value.

 

Now they are eating $9.7M and paying Tapia $3.95M for 2022. This is a slightly better player + $$ position. If Tapia sucks, they just cut him and they save about $6M across the two years and have a whatever prospect who had good rookie ball numbers. If Tapia is good though, they can keep him for 2023 (final arb) and get a player upgrade for about the same money they would have paid Grichuk across the two years.

 

Tapia at 28 and two years younger than Grichuk probably has a better chance to improve. This will be a season in his physical prime. Grichuk is squarely past his prime.

 

I understand that Grichuk appears to project slightly better buuuuuuut we are talking about fractions of a win. That doesn't mean much to me.

 

Most importantly, perhaps, Tapia just fits the roster better. As a LHH 4th OF with speed he should help Toronto more than Grichuk would as a RHH 4th OF whose best trait is power (which the Jays have in spades). And FWIW Toronto might benefit from not awkwardly having to bench a veteran making big money.

 

 

Good post, hope you're right. The only thing I really like is the lotto ticket in Pinto.

[Spanky99]

He was supposedly miserable here, and he's at the best spot to revive some value and get traded again.

 

Well, this makes alot of sense, I wish him well.

[Spanky99]

Mic drop...

 

Yes, Grant was Rekt!

[John_Havok]

You really didn't need to elaborate. I said that I would trust the stats over whatever anecdotal conclusions you drew up based on what you think you saw and I'm still going to do that.

 

You say that Tapia is a boneheaded base-runner that is constantly getting picked off and running into outs. That he's done one of those things almost every time you watch.

 

So let's look at the numbers.

 

Raimel Tapia had 533 plate appearances in 2021. Based on Baseball Reference's baserunning leaderboards, he got picked off 3 times and thrown out on the base paths 2 times all year long. He had a 77% stolen-base rate, for 20 SB and 6 CS.

 

You keep comparing him to Villar, so let's look at Villar's numbers.

 

Jonathan Villar had 505 plate appearances in 2021. He was picked off 7 times and made 5 outs on the base paths. His success rate on stolen base attempts was 67%, for 14 SB and 7 CS. He was considerably worse than Tapia in every number.

 

It's entirely possible that 2021 was an anomaly and super-scout Grant77 was just remembering what he's seen in past years. So let's expand the sample size.

 

Tapia made 5 "bone-headed" outs (picked off or thrown out while advancing) in 2021, 1 such out in 2020, 8 outs in 2019, and 0 in 2018 (small PA sample).

 

Compare that to Villar who made 12 dumb outs in 2021, 7 in 2020, 12 in 2019 and 9 in 2018.

 

Tapia's made a dumb out 14 times in the last four years. Villar has done it 40 times.

 

To further put those numbers in perspective, the league leaders in those types of outs each year include people like Jose Altuve (13 outs in 2021), Francisco Lindor (7 outs in 2020), Tommy Pham (16 outs in 2019) and Javier Baez (12 outs in 2018).

 

Tapia also had an XBT% (the percentage of times a runner takes more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double) of 44 in 2021. That was plainly in the middle of the league and pretty much exactly in line with his career numbers.

 

Compare that to a guy like Grichuk, who was in the bottom 15% of the league in 2021 with an XBT% of just 31.

 

Tapia is a very fast runner that has been squarely average or above average in smartness/dumbness stats for the past several years. So yeah... on a guy who ran into an out twice and got picked off three times over the course of an entire season, you made the claim that he makes a boneheaded base-running play almost every time you watch. That's pretty much a perfect case study of why nobody should care about what some guy on a forum thinks he's seen with his own eyes.

 

I really can't wait to get Grant's response on this. It's going to be amazing.

[Spanky99]

I really can't wait to get Grant's response on this. It's going to be amazing.

 

I'll give Grant credit on Tapia's defense, he really doesn't get good reads off the bat, and takes porous routes on balls, this is at least coachable. As is launch angle, etc... we'll see. The Rockie's really are a terribly run org.

[G-Snarls]

Good post, hope you're right. The only thing I really like is the lotto ticket in Pinto.

 

50% chance busts in the minors

50% chance Altuve

 

JK.

 

Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe s***

[Spanky99]

50% chance busts in the minors

50% chance Altuve

 

JK.

 

Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe s***

 

Yup, that's prospects for ya, especially that far away. He'll be a good follow.

[Grant77]

You really didn't need to elaborate. I said that I would trust the stats over whatever anecdotal conclusions you drew up based on what you think you saw and I'm still going to do that.

 

You say that Tapia is a boneheaded base-runner that is constantly getting picked off and running into outs. That he's done one of those things almost every time you watch.

 

So let's look at the numbers.

 

Raimel Tapia had 533 plate appearances in 2021. Based on Baseball Reference's baserunning leaderboards, he got picked off 3 times and thrown out on the base paths 2 times all year long. He had a 77% stolen-base rate, for 20 SB and 6 CS.

 

You keep comparing him to Villar, so let's look at Villar's numbers.

 

Jonathan Villar had 505 plate appearances in 2021. He was picked off 7 times and made 5 outs on the base paths. His success rate on stolen base attempts was 67%, for 14 SB and 7 CS. He was considerably worse than Tapia in every number.

 

It's entirely possible that 2021 was an anomaly and super-scout Grant77 was just remembering what he's seen in past years. So let's expand the sample size.

 

Tapia made 5 "bone-headed" outs (picked off or thrown out while advancing) in 2021, 1 such out in 2020, 8 outs in 2019, and 0 in 2018 (small PA sample).

 

Compare that to Villar who made 12 dumb outs in 2021, 7 in 2020, 12 in 2019 and 9 in 2018.

 

Tapia's made a dumb out 14 times in the last four years. Villar has done it 40 times.

 

To further put those numbers in perspective, the league leaders in those types of outs each year include people like Jose Altuve (13 outs in 2021), Francisco Lindor (7 outs in 2020), Tommy Pham (16 outs in 2019) and Javier Baez (12 outs in 2018).

 

Tapia also had an XBT% (the percentage of times a runner takes more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double) of 44 in 2021. That was plainly in the middle of the league and pretty much exactly in line with his career numbers.

 

Compare that to a guy like Grichuk, who was in the bottom 15% of the league in 2021 with an XBT% of just 31.

 

Tapia is a very fast runner that has been squarely average or above average in smartness/dumbness stats for the past several years. So yeah... on a guy who ran into an out twice and got picked off three times over the course of an entire season, you made the claim that he makes a boneheaded base-running play almost every time you watch. That's pretty much a perfect case study of why nobody should care about what some guy on a forum thinks he's seen with his own eyes.

 

I'm sorry that you wasted so much time responding to something that was never said. Creating false statements and responding to them as if the other person actually said those things is extremely cowardly.

 

At least Olerud does this in an openly trolling manner. It's fortunate that others on this forum don't have to deal with dishonest scumbags like you in real life.