Grichuk to the Rockies

[AdamGreenwood]

Tapia's numbes batting numbers dont look awful. Sure he doesnt hit for power but the other numbers look not awful?

 

He's hit .271, .321, and .275 the last three years? That's a heck of a lot better than most folks on our team.

 

Admittedly, Im just getting into baseball but I must be missing something.

 

So, you'll figure this out, but he has what we call an 'empty batting average' which means that there aren't a lot of extra base hits or walks to go along with that batting average.

The opposite kind of player like Matt Chapman might only hit .225, but gets a ton of walks, and hits 30 HR, and is far more valuable.

[connorp]

I do think all things considered this is a small upgrade so it was worth doing

 

Being said, they could flip Tapia. Some old school team might give up a prospect for him. He is fast fast fast and he was a fringe elite prospect.

 

I mean what fact are you basing the upgrade on? You add RG’s dead money to Tapia and it’s a $ wash. Is RG not the more valuable player in the past and projected 2022?

 

A top 400-500 something prospect tips it? For a contending team? I mean, not like the world ends that we lose RG but I think it’s an objective net negative. Other than the RG hate lol. The hate would be less if he was making half though

[connorp]

I mean, In a perfect world no way RG should’ve gotten that many ABs but you can do worse for a 4th OF

 

Tapia is worse

[connorp]

I can get “ding dong the witch is dead”. Understand it considering how much we saw him last year. But no big win here

[saskjayfan]

The bigger idiots on MLB Network including Harold REYNOLDS (corrected) are talking about how exciting and dynamic Tapia is

 

Tell me why this is BS and he suxx

 

So this board is going to go with Harold and the eye test and ignore that he has a career FWAR of .2 through 1425 plate appearances. Am I in the wrong place. Did I mistakenly enter the Sportsnet comment section?

[G-Snarls]

So this board is going to go with Harold and the eye test and ignore that he has a career FWAR of .2 through 1425 plate appearances. Am I in the wrong place. Did I mistakenly enter the Sportsnet comment section?

 

No

 

I was just poking fun at it

[vaff]

Knowing the Rockies, they probably had Tapia focus on hitting the ball on the ground and using his speed to run out grounders. Dumb organization.

 

They may be dumb, but it seems this guy has been equally as bad no matter what his approach has been.

[Terminator]

I think this is one of those trades where both teams did well. Grichuk is the better player and a "good" fit for the Rockies (should be able to crank out around 30 homers while playing his position at the expansive Coors outfield) but Tapia is a better fit for us (left handed bat and good pinch runner). The Rockies got a lot of cash out of us but we got an interesting prospect.

 

It's a good move for Grichuk too. He was benched his last two months here but in Colorado he'll play a lot and can crank out 30 jacks a year the next two years. Tapia probably wasn't going to play much anyway with the signing of Bryant but now he'll be a top bench option for one of the best teams in the league. Ws all around for everyone involved.

[Grant77]

I think this is one of those trades where both teams did well. Grichuk is the better player and a "good" fit for the Rockies (should be able to crank out around 30 homers while playing his position at the expansive Coors outfield) but Tapia is a better fit for us (left handed bat and good pinch runner). The Rockies got a lot of cash out of us but we got an interesting prospect.

 

It's a good move for Grichuk too. He was benched his last two months here but in Colorado he'll play a lot and can crank out 30 jacks a year the next two years. Tapia probably wasn't going to play much anyway with the signing of Bryant but now he'll be a top bench option for one of the best teams in the league. Ws all around for everyone involved.

 

This had to have a lot to do with getting Grichuk the playing time that our FO feels he deserves. He's been a really good soldier for us and should be given a lot of respect. We probably keep him if the at-bats were there, but they just weren't this season.

 

Tapia is a worse player and a worse fit for us, given that he is probably unplayable in CF. Handedness is almost irrelevant when it comes to such a weak hitter. We haven't really saved any money either, considering the need for a backup OF next season as well. Hopefully a corresponding move helps us to make sense of a move that is short on it.

[BigCecil]

Tapia will pinch hit for Kirk late in a game against a RHP at least once in 2022.

 

Kill - Me - Now

 

Glad to see Grichuk moved, probably irrationally, but out of the frying pan into the fire.

[Laika]

I mean what fact are you basing the upgrade on? You add RG’s dead money to Tapia and it’s a $ wash. Is RG not the more valuable player in the past and projected 2022?

 

A top 400-500 something prospect tips it? For a contending team? I mean, not like the world ends that we lose RG but I think it’s an objective net negative. Other than the RG hate lol. The hate would be less if he was making half though

 

Last two years combined:

 

TAPIA

1.8 bWAR

1.2 fWAR

739 PA

 

GRICHUK

1.2 bWAR

0.9 fWAR

776 PA

 

Toronto was on the hook for $20.66M for two years of Grichuk. He had negative value.

 

Now they are eating $9.7M and paying Tapia $3.95M for 2022. This is a slightly better player + $$ position. If Tapia sucks, they just cut him and they save about $6M across the two years and have a whatever prospect who had good rookie ball numbers. If Tapia is good though, they can keep him for 2023 (final arb) and get a player upgrade for about the same money they would have paid Grichuk across the two years.

 

Tapia at 28 and two years younger than Grichuk probably has a better chance to improve. This will be a season in his physical prime. Grichuk is squarely past his prime.

 

I understand that Grichuk appears to project slightly better buuuuuuut we are talking about fractions of a win. That doesn't mean much to me.

 

Most importantly, perhaps, Tapia just fits the roster better. As a LHH 4th OF with speed he should help Toronto more than Grichuk would as a RHH 4th OF whose best trait is power (which the Jays have in spades). And FWIW Toronto might benefit from not awkwardly having to bench a veteran making big money.

 

[Laika]

Also, Tapia has a lot of tools and the Rockies are s*** at player dev so maybe there is something to unlock.

 

He wasn't actually scouted as a pure slap hitter, remember. His profile was more like 60 hit, 60 speed, fringe average pop, 50 defense.

[Terminator]

This had to have a lot to do with getting Grichuk the playing time that our FO feels he deserves. He's been a really good soldier for us and should be given a lot of respect. We probably keep him if the at-bats were there, but they just weren't this season.

 

Yeah I was thinking this played a factor. Jays straight up gave away Freddy Galvis once for similar reasons.

 

Tapia is a worse player and a worse fit for us, given that he is probably unplayable in CF. Handedness is almost irrelevant when it comes to such a weak hitter. We haven't really saved any money either, considering the need for a backup OF next season as well. Hopefully a corresponding move helps us to make sense of a move that is short on it.

 

I disagree with pretty much all of this. Grichuk is *probably* the better player but after looking at the numbers more I'm not even sure of that anymore. Tapia out-WAR'd him in each of the last two seasons. I can't really say much about the defense with any certainty but I don't think you can either. Tapia grades out much much better statcast wise. I assume you base the fact that he can't play CF off of his arm but it looks like whatever advantages Grichuk has there that Tapia might be able to make it up with his range (Grichuk's range is terrible and he's not really playable in CF either). CF in RC is much more doable for a below average arm than it is in Coors where's it's almost a must.

 

Also, Tapia will be going from one of the worst orgs in baseball to one of the best. I bet the Jays feel they can squeeze more juice out of his profile. Grichuk had a .280 OBP last year so let's not act like he's any good either lol

[AdamGreenwood]

Last two years combined:

 

TAPIA

1.8 bWAR

1.2 fWAR

739 PA

 

GRICHUK

1.2 bWAR

0.9 fWAR

776 PA

 

Toronto was on the hook for $20.66M for two years of Grichuk. He had negative value.

 

Now they are eating $9.7M and paying Tapia $3.95M for 2022. This is a slightly better player + $$ position. If Tapia sucks, they just cut him and they save about $6M across the two years and have a whatever prospect who had good rookie ball numbers. If Tapia is good though, they can keep him for 2023 (final arb) and get a player upgrade for about the same money they would have paid Grichuk across the two years.

 

Tapia at 28 and two years younger than Grichuk probably has a better chance to improve. This will be a season in his physical prime. Grichuk is squarely past his prime.

 

I understand that Grichuk appears to project slightly better buuuuuuut we are talking about fractions of a win. That doesn't mean much to me.

 

Most importantly, perhaps, Tapia just fits the roster better. As a LHH 4th OF with speed he should help Toronto more than Grichuk would as a RHH 4th OF whose best trait is power (which the Jays have in spades). And FWIW Toronto might benefit from not awkwardly having to bench a veteran making big money.

 

 

Good assessment. I agree 100%

[L54]

Good assessment. I agree 100%

 

Me too.

[Ehjays]

Another small motivator for the Jays to consider is the added Ghost Runner rule for extra innings this year. Having Tapia on the bench will help in this regard.

[Grant77]

Yeah I was thinking this played a factor. Jays straight up gave away Freddy Galvis once for similar reasons.

 

 

 

I disagree with pretty much all of this. Grichuk is *probably* the better player but after looking at the numbers more I'm not even sure of that anymore. Tapia out-WAR'd him in each of the last two seasons. I can't really say much about the defense with any certainty but I don't think you can either. Tapia grades out much much better statcast wise. I assume you base the fact that he can't play CF off of his arm but it looks like whatever advantages Grichuk has there that Tapia might be able to make it up with his range (Grichuk's range is terrible and he's not really playable in CF either). CF in RC is much more doable for a below average arm than it is in Coors where's it's almost a must.

 

Also, Tapia will be going from one of the worst orgs in baseball to one of the best. I bet the Jays feel they can squeeze more juice out of his profile. Grichuk had a .280 OBP last year so let's not act like he's any good either lol

 

I wasn't necessarily basing his lack of ability to play CF on the arm, but it's a concern. More concerning is what multiple scouts say about his defense. He gets late breaks, is slow to react, and has exceptionally poor feel for reading balls off the bat. One scout on BP said Tapia had the worst baserunning instincts he had ever encountered. That obviously translates to the field.

 

Maybe that's overly harsh, it probably is, but if he could play CF then he would still be on the Rockies. The stats, the eye test, and the scouting reports say that he isn't playable in CF. I think that's a big problem for us. Grichuk was perfectly adequate for us in that regard. All of the routine plays were made. On the hitting side of things I don't think we lose a lot, but we'll see.

[mellowgold]

He looks like he's gonna fit in well with the Vlad/Lourdes/Teo gang as well.

[TwistedLogic]

Laika already made a ton of good points but further than that, what won me over on Tapia earlier today was something a guy on reddit pointed out.

 

While Grichuk has like 20 points on him in wRC+, that's pretty much all based in his considerable power advantage. Tapia is actually a much better hitter.

 

Career splits have Grichuk at a .245 BA and a .293 OBP versus Tapia's .280 BA and a .325 OBP. Both guys pretty much played to those career splits in 2021.

 

Tapia has also been striking out almost half the time as Grichuk lately, is a much faster and smarter base-runner, and he has grounded into 16 double plays in his entire 439-game career.

 

Grichuk had 17 GIDP in 2021 alone.

 

Tapia has absolutely no power but he's a better offensive player than Grichuk in every single other way on top of being a lefty bat. And this is one lineup that can afford its 4th OF to not be a power-first guy. He's considerably less of a black hole in the lineup than Grichuk and is much more likely to keep the line moving (let alone killing rallies with a double play), which is perfect for this current Jays roster.

 

I totally understand why Atkins repetitively said he's a much better complimentary piece for this team than Grichuk in his media availability earlier today.

[Grant77]

Laika already made a ton of good points but further than that, what won me over on Tapia earlier today was something a guy on reddit pointed out.

 

While Grichuk has like 20 points on him in wRC+, that's pretty much all based in his considerable power advantage. Tapia is actually a much better hitter.

 

Career splits have Grichuk at a .245 BA and a .293 OBP versus Tapia's .280 BA and a .325 OBP. Both guys pretty much played to those career splits in 2021.

 

Tapia also strikes out almost half the time as Grichuk, is a much faster and smarter base-runner, and he has grounded into 16 double plays in his entire 439 game career.

 

Grichuk had 17 GIDP in 2021 alone.

 

Tapia has absolutely no power but he's a better offensive player than Grichuk in every single other way on top of being a lefty bat. And this is one lineup that can afford its 4th OF to not be a power-first guy. He's considerably less of a black hole in the lineup than Grichuk and is much more likely to keep the line moving, which is perfect for the current Jays roster.

 

I totally understand why Atkins repetitively said he's a much better complimentary piece for this team than Grichuk in his media availability earlier today.

 

That couldn't be more false from what I have seen. Tapia is worse than Jonathan Villar on the base paths. Very fast, but also very stupid.

[InsideThePark]

If used properly this is a good deal. Seems fair. I just get Ben Revere needs to be leading off kind of trash vibes from a guy who shouldn't even be in the lineup but Montoyo will probably DH Teo or Gurriel a bunch to get his speed in there and Kirk will be on the bench a lot more than he should be as a result. On days where Springer is getting a day off I wouldn't even be surprised if he hit leadoff. Maybe I expect Montoyo to be worse than he actually is.

[TwistedLogic]

That couldn't be more false from what I have seen. Tapia is worse than Jonathan Villar on the base paths. Very fast, but also very stupid.

 

With all due respect, I'm gonna trust the stats over your eye-test on this one. Grichuk had -4.9 BsR in 2021. Tapia was a +3.9. Those numbers are consistent with their longer-term track records as well. And BsR takes into account dumb base-running plays.

 

Tapia is a massive upgrade on the basepaths.

[Laika]

Grant is going to say he was talking about the "smarter" part

 

But BsR is all that matters. Stupid and +5 is better than a smart and calculated zero.

[rookiefuzz]

Kill - Me - Now

 

Glad to see Grichuk moved, probably irrationally, but out of the frying pan into the fire.

 

Dope Tolkien reference.

[TwistedLogic]

This was posted in here earlier but didn't get much attention so anyone who hasn't already seen this video needs to watch it:

 

 

Tapia has some really promising things in his game and could be a tweak or two away from becoming a genuinely superb hitter.

 

For starters, while Tapia only hit 6 home runs in 2021, these were the pitchers he hit them off of:

 

- Walker Buehler

- Jacob DeGrom

- Hector Neris

- Aaron Sanchez

- Seth Frankoff(?)

- Max Scherzer

 

The average distance on those home runs was 414 feet, which was tied for 9th the highest average HR distance in the game.

 

It's like he knows how to crush the ball and tries for it when he's facing elite pitchers but he's just smashing the ball into the ground otherwise.

 

Tapia has really nice contact numbers and actually had one of the highest average launch angles in the league in 2018 (18.1 degrees) before gradually tumbling down to the lowest launch angle of all time in 2021 (-4.4 degrees). It almost feels like some crusty old coach must have told him "you have really good speed, just beat the ball into the dirt and out-run the throw" and he's been doing that ever since.

 

If the Jays' coaching staff can help him adjust his launch angle and start hitting line drives on a more consistent basis, he could become a contact-hitting god.

[BCZ]

Me too.

 

And I, to you, in addition, feel, the same feelings, that you are, as well.

[BCZ]

He looks like he's gonna fit in well with the Vlad/Lourdes/Teo gang as well.

 

That's racist!

[Olerud363]

This was posted in here earlier but didn't get much attention so anyone who hasn't already seen this video needs to watch it:

 

 

Tapia has some really promising things in his game and could be a tweak or two away from becoming a genuinely superb hitter.

 

For starters, while Tapia only hit 6 home runs in 2021, these were the pitchers he hit them off of:

 

- Walker Buehler

- Jacob DeGrom

- Hector Neris

- Aaron Sanchez

- Seth Frankoff(?)

- Max Scherzer

 

The average distance on those home runs was 414 feet, which was tied for 9th the highest average HR distance in the game.

 

It's like he knows how to crush the ball and tries for it when he's facing elite pitchers but he's just smashing the ball into the ground otherwise.

 

Tapia has really nice contact numbers and actually had one of the highest average launch angles in the league in 2018 (18.1 degrees) before gradually tumbling down to the lowest launch angle of all time in 2021 (-4.4 degrees). It almost feels like some crusty old coach must have told him "you have really good speed, just beat the ball into the dirt and out-run the throw" and he's been doing that ever since.

 

If the Jays' coaching staff can help him adjust his launch angle and start hitting line drives on a more consistent basis, he could become a contact-hitting god.

 

I was thinking the other day how do you find the next Cedric Mullins?

 

Cedric Mullins is a very rare occurrence and it may be a fools errand to try and find another. However if you designed a 'next Cedric Mullins finder AI' who would it find? Would Tapia be on the list? (keeping in mind most the 'next Cedric Mullins' would be failures.

[Deadpool]

This was posted in here earlier but didn't get much attention so anyone who hasn't already seen this video needs to watch it:

 

 

Tapia has some really promising things in his game and could be a tweak or two away from becoming a genuinely superb hitter.

 

For starters, while Tapia only hit 6 home runs in 2021, these were the pitchers he hit them off of:

 

- Walker Buehler

- Jacob DeGrom

- Hector Neris

- Aaron Sanchez

- Seth Frankoff(?)

- Max Scherzer

 

The average distance on those home runs was 414 feet, which was tied for 9th the highest average HR distance in the game.

 

It's like he knows how to crush the ball and tries for it when he's facing elite pitchers but he's just smashing the ball into the ground otherwise.

 

Tapia has really nice contact numbers and actually had one of the highest average launch angles in the league in 2018 (18.1 degrees) before gradually tumbling down to the lowest launch angle of all time in 2021 (-4.4 degrees). It almost feels like some crusty old coach must have told him "you have really good speed, just beat the ball into the dirt and out-run the throw" and he's been doing that ever since.

 

If the Jays' coaching staff can help him adjust his launch angle and start hitting line drives on a more consistent basis, he could become a contact-hitting god.

 

Generally feel much better about the deal after watching that video (I was generally neutral before). There is stuff to work with here, too bad it's a shortened spring, hopefully the hitting coaches can correct that launch angle.

[Grant77]

With all due respect, I'm gonna trust the stats over your eye-test on this one. Grichuk had -4.9 BsR in 2021. Tapia was a +3.9. Those numbers are consistent with their longer-term track records as well. And BsR takes into account dumb base-running plays.

 

Tapia is a massive upgrade on the basepaths.

 

I guess I should have elaborated instead of simply bolding the misinformation in your quote.

 

Tapia is a very fast and very bad baserunner, much like Jonathan Villar, who also has a positive BsR. I didn't compare him to Grichuk or suggest that he wasn't more valuable in that regard.

 

He's going to be used in pinch running situations here and you will see a boneheaded runner that makes some spectacular plays along with getting picked off at inopportune times and running into outs. He's done one of those things almost every time I watch and he's absolutely notorious for it in Colorado.