Around Baseball 2022

[Stangstag]

Somewhere, AA is chuckling

 

Yeah i’d be laughing about that Murphy trade for weeks if I was involved

[John_Havok]

 

Isn’t this exactly like the contract that was rumoured about Judge from the Padres they thought would get investigated for being in bad faith to keep the AAV low? It’s under 27 million per year which doesn’t make a lot of sense. He should be well into then 30+ million aav

[Olerud363]

The Dodgers luxury tax payroll is currently 30 mil less than the Jays. Walker Buehler is out for the season. Can they just wake up and remember they are the Dodgers and go sign Rodon so the Yankees don't get him?

 

I think they are talking an off year in terms of payroll to reset the luxury tax. Will be interesting to see if they win 100 games anyway.

[Laika]

I feel like at this point the term on these big FA contracts can essentially be ignored. None of these teams expect the players to be useful in years 9, 10, 11... they just stretch out the deal to keep the AAV down for luxury tax.

 

Heck they probably don't even model the players out to be useful in years 7 and 8. I bet the models look something like: star for a few years, good for a few more years, then replacement level from 36 onward.

 

So it helps to translate them to, say, 8 year deals. Say they are:

 

8/$45M for Judge

8/$43.75M for Correa

8/$37.5M for Turner

8/$35 for Boogers

 

They kind of make more sense when you think about them like this.

 

Judge has the most projected WAR. Best chance at immediate superstar impact.

 

Correa is the youngest, second best projected, and of the shortstops has the most traditional offensive profile with walks and homers.

 

The relative numbers kind of make sense, and they also kind of make sense in relation to the highest AAV contracts in history coming into this offseason when you think about the new CBA, inflation, etc.

[Olerud363]

I feel like at this point the term on these big FA contracts can essentially be ignored. None of these teams expect the players to be useful in years 9, 10, 11... they just stretch out the deal to keep the AAV down for luxury tax.

 

Heck they probably don't even model the players out to be useful in years 7 and 8. I bet the models look something like: star for a few years, good for a few more years, then replacement level from 36 onward.

 

So it helps to translate them to, say, 8 year deals. Say they are:

 

8/$45M for Judge

8/$43.75M for Correa

8/$37.5M for Turner

8/$35 for Boogers

 

They kind of make more sense when you think about them like this.

 

Judge has the most projected WAR. Best chance at immediate superstar impact.

 

Correa is the youngest, second best projected, and of the shortstops has the most traditional offensive profile with walks and homers.

 

The relative numbers kind of make sense, and they also kind of make sense in relation to the highest AAV contracts in history coming into this offseason when you think about the new CBA, inflation, etc.

 

What happens when they release the player in 8 years? For example with Correa will his 28 million average salary count against the luxury tax?

[Laika]

What happens when they release the player in 8 years? For example with Correa will his 28 million average salary count against the luxury tax?

 

Yeah they continue to pay the contract

 

I'm actually kind of surprised the commissioner allowed a 13 year deal like this. But I guess Harper set the precedent. And there appears to be a rule of thumb that teams are allowed to stretch these out until a player is ~40. Like Boogers and Trea are two years older than Correa, and Judge is one year older than them.

[Jimcanuck]

Yeah i’d be laughing about that Murphy trade for weeks if I was involved

 

My comment has more to do with the series of team friendly contracts he managed to get signed

[Laika]

Anyway, good for the Giants. Happy they did what was necessary.

[connorp]

I feel like at this point the term on these big FA contracts can essentially be ignored. None of these teams expect the players to be useful in years 9, 10, 11... they just stretch out the deal to keep the AAV down for luxury tax.

 

Heck they probably don't even model the players out to be useful in years 7 and 8. I bet the models look something like: star for a few years, good for a few more years, then replacement level from 36 onward.

 

So it helps to translate them to, say, 8 year deals. Say they are:

 

8/$45M for Judge

8/$43.75M for Correa

8/$37.5M for Turner

8/$35 for Boogers

 

They kind of make more sense when you think about them like this.

 

Judge has the most projected WAR. Best chance at immediate superstar impact.

 

Correa is the youngest, second best projected, and of the shortstops has the most traditional offensive profile with walks and homers.

 

The relative numbers kind of make sense, and they also kind of make sense in relation to the highest AAV contracts in history coming into this offseason when you think about the new CBA, inflation, etc.

 

Correa deal it becomes more blatantly obvious for sure.

[John_Havok]

I feel like at this point the term on these big FA contracts can essentially be ignored. None of these teams expect the players to be useful in years 9, 10, 11... they just stretch out the deal to keep the AAV down for luxury tax.

 

Heck they probably don't even model the players out to be useful in years 7 and 8. I bet the models look something like: star for a few years, good for a few more years, then replacement level from 36 onward.

 

So it helps to translate them to, say, 8 year deals. Say they are:

 

8/$45M for Judge

8/$43.75M for Correa

8/$37.5M for Turner

8/$35 for Boogers

 

They kind of make more sense when you think about them like this.

 

Judge has the most projected WAR. Best chance at immediate superstar impact.

 

Correa is the youngest, second best projected, and of the shortstops has the most traditional offensive profile with walks and homers.

 

The relative numbers kind of make sense, and they also kind of make sense in relation to the highest AAV contracts in history coming into this offseason when you think about the new CBA, inflation, etc.

 

Yes, this makes sense from a dollars perspective, but the length of these is essentially just being used to get the AAV lower for luxury tax purposes. Especially in Correa's case.

[John_Havok]

Anyway, good for the Giants. Happy they did what was necessary.

 

Theyd still need Rodon to come back to really move that needle back towards the top. I still still them as a distant 7th at best.

[Laika]

Theyd still need Rodon to come back to really move that needle back towards the top. I still still them as a distant 7th at best.

 

Yes they are still the 7th or 8th best NL team but at least they have a puncher's chance now.

[connorp]

Connorp says this is a great deal and some teams just operate differently

 

Absolutely insane. And hilariously bad when you could’ve signed him last year instead for probably 2/3 the price and length.

 

Sorry dude. The de facto board leader is essentially with me on this. You have to look at the impact of the first say 8 years and understand 9-13 is really just dead money and everyone knows it. So it’s a matter of if you think that’s going to handicap your team. So if it’s the Jays, it definitely will, so I wouldn’t want them to do it.

[connorp]

And stuff changes in a year. Every single one of us I think mocked Judge last year for not signing for $150m less. Based on the Seager contract, no there wasn’t going to be a deal had with CC. He didn’t get what he wanted, so he took a show me deal, sort of like Rodon where there was a pillow in case he kept getting hurt

[Laika]

Correa is a "hilariously bad" contract it just makes sense for SFG to put one on the books right now IMO. They are a big market team and they have no whale contracts and they are trying to win right now.

[connorp]

I like CC long term better then say Bogey. Just more power and will have an easier time making up for any slide in D. Also the bat can profile at another position. While I defend the mega deal, it doesn’t mean I’d always do it. Depends on the player of course.

[connorp]

Correa is a "hilariously bad" contract it just makes sense for SFG to put one on the books right now IMO. They are a big market team and they have no whale contracts and they are trying to win right now.

 

So it’s awful but it’s good. That’s the Cliff note there.

[Jimcanuck]

I like CC long term better then say Bogey. Just more power and will have an easier time making up for any slide in D. Also the bat can profile at another position. While I defend the mega deal, it doesn’t mean I’d always do it. Depends on the player of course.

 

Backtracking

[connorp]

Backtracking

 

No. I actually worry about Bogeys bat long term and that’s why I bailed on him in fantasy. You’ll never see him come to the defense of someone I don’t think will be a big bat

[connorp]

Backtracking

 

I hate backtrackers lol. One of the reason that one guy was popular is he doubled down.

Obviously if Jays signed Matt Chapman to 10/250 tomorrow (as an fictitious, extreme example) I’d hate it. So clearly it’a dependent to me on the player

[L54]

I like CC long term better then say Bogey. Just more power and will have an easier time making up for any slide in D. Also the bat can profile at another position. While I defend the mega deal, it doesn’t mean I’d always do it. Depends on the player of course.

 

I agree this is better than the Bogey deal because Correa is a superior player with skills that should age better.

 

I think it’s ridiculous that these guys are signing mega deals for 4 extra years in order to push AAV down. I don’t think it’s good for the game but it is what it is.

 

Ohtani is gonna get 12/480 next year and he’s another UCL injury away from being a 40M DH until he’s 40+

 

If teams have this much cash they should be paying minor leaguers and pre arb guys more $$$.

[TheHurl]

L54 is becoming a socialist before our very eyes...come on in for a hug!

[Laika]

I mean it's TRUE!

 

Teams have all this extra money for old players because they profit so much on pre-arb and arb players. Underpay most of your team so you can overpay a handful of veterans.

 

Weird system tbh.

[TheHurl]

I mean it's TRUE!

 

Teams have all this extra money for old players because they profit so much on pre-arb and arb players. Underpay most of your team so you can overpay a handful of veterans.

 

Weird system tbh.

 

It is all the PA has ever fought for too. They have never thought about anyone but the top level vets. Even the MLB ever went to a cap, their priority would be buyouts to ensure vets still get paid

[L54]

L54 is becoming a socialist before our very eyes...come on in for a hug!

 

Lmao ... what are unions for?!

[L54]

I mean it's TRUE!

 

Teams have all this extra money for old players because they profit so much on pre-arb and arb players. Underpay most of your team so you can overpay a handful of veterans.

 

Weird system tbh.

 

Exactly. Broken system

 

But here is a competitive balance pick Pittsburgh so that kid you develop can go play for the Mets in 8 years and earn 55M/year. That’ll keep things even.

 

Pour all your resources into development I guess?

[G-Snarls]

[L54]

Ah didn’t realize Feyereisen was out for 2023

[wilko]

 

These contracts are getting ridiculous.

[Laika]

It is all the PA has ever fought for too. They have never thought about anyone but the top level vets. Even the MLB ever went to a cap, their priority would be buyouts to ensure vets still get paid

 

This recent CBA is the first time it changed at all. The league wide performance bonuses for pre-arb players are at least something.

 

If a kid has two elite years then literally dies at least his family will have $4M from his MLB time instead of $1M.