Around Baseball 2022

[connorp]

FFS - he's been a 3.5 - 4 WAR pitcher for 3 of the last 4 seasons. He's entering his age 29 season and collectively, we're in an era where it's far more easy to fix a pitcher than ever before. There's so many obvious reasons to be optimistic about him returning as a very good #2/#3 pitcher who you'd absolutely want starting a playoff game - but oh no, the Grinch here has to spread his negative views on literally everything the Blue Jays do. Obviously there's a possibility you're right and he's a massively overpaid #4/#5 starter for the rest of his career, but that's probability is likely very low at this point.

 

Perhaps it was better when you stayed in the off topic realm.

 

I’m sorry some people can’t make distinctions without getting their panties twisted. I mean if you go into a playoff game and you’re facing a 2.8 FIP guy that was only going for 2 WAR because he missed time being injured, or the 4 WAR/FIP guy that was healthy and steady all-season, why do you care about WAR at that point?

 

Just because you say someone is best used as a #4 SP doesn’t mean they all have to fit in the same basket. Mark Buehrle was best as a backend guy but gave you dependability to pass on the front end

[connorp]

I would bet Berrios returns closer to career norms than this off-season but that would still make him a not scary pitcher in the post-season. I was always optimistic on Berrios taking the next step, I targeted him in fantasy leagues, but it just didn’t happen. I think he’ll be alright but for a team like the Jays, I’m pessimistic he’ll be the best use of resources

[Laika]

Berrios had a very weird season where he performed a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde routine. He made a lot of very good/great starts, but then had a large number of disaster starts which really tanked his overall numbers.

 

0-3 FIP: 12 starts

3-4 FIP:7 starts

4-5 FIP: 3 starts

5-10 FIP: 3 starts

10+ FIP: 7 starts

 

So Berrios pitched great in 12 of his 32 starts, very well in 7 starts, mediocre in 3 starts, very poorly in 3 starts, and had 7 absolute disaster starts. He gave his team a great chance to win in 19/32 starts (59%), kept them in the game at the very least in 22/32 starts (69%), and basically gave his team no shot to win in 10/32 of his starts (31%).

 

this is what happens when a pitcher is homer prone

[Laika]

FFS - he's been a 3.5 - 4 WAR pitcher for 3 of the last 4 seasons. He's entering his age 29 season and collectively, we're in an era where it's far more easy to fix a pitcher than ever before. There's so many obvious reasons to be optimistic about him returning as a very good #2/#3 pitcher who you'd absolutely want starting a playoff game - but oh no, the Grinch here has to spread his negative views on literally everything the Blue Jays do. Obviously there's a possibility you're right and he's a massively overpaid #4/#5 starter for the rest of his career, but that's probability is likely very low at this point.

 

Perhaps it was better when you stayed in the off topic realm.

 

I dunno, did you watch him pitch this year? lol he looked like s*** like s*** like big stinky s***

[BTS]

[connorp]

I dunno, did you watch him pitch this year? lol he looked like s*** like s*** like big stinky s***

 

Well at least you can be objective. I’m not a fan of guys like Biggio, who the team very clearly doesn’t see as an everyday player, to the detriment of everyone here that knows he’s a key piece if he only gets the chance, and suddenly I hate all the Jays and I’m a Grinch lol

[Laika]

Well at least you can be objective. I’m not a fan of guys like Biggio, who the team very clearly doesn’t see as an everyday player, to the detriment of everyone here that knows he’s a key piece if he only gets the chance, and suddenly I hate all the Jays and I’m a Grinch lol

 

People here used to think that about Biggio. I don't think most consider him a core piece anymore.

He looks like a platoon or bench guy now.

[G-Snarls]

 

Guessing 2 years ~ 40M

 

He wanted 3

[G-Snarls]

Austin martin in AA this year:

 

.241/.367/.316 OPS .683

[Stangstag]

Austin martin in AA this year:

 

.241/.367/.316 OPS .683

 

Every player involved in that trade was a disaster in 2022

[Stangstag]

Berrios had a very weird season where he performed a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde routine. He made a lot of very good/great starts, but then had a large number of disaster starts which really tanked his overall numbers.

 

0-3 FIP: 12 starts

3-4 FIP:7 starts

4-5 FIP: 3 starts

5-10 FIP: 3 starts

10+ FIP: 7 starts

 

So Berrios pitched great in 12 of his 32 starts, very well in 7 starts, mediocre in 3 starts, very poorly in 3 starts, and had 7 absolute disaster starts. He gave his team a great chance to win in 19/32 starts (59%), kept them in the game at the very least in 22/32 starts (69%), and basically gave his team no shot to win in 10/32 of his starts (31%).

 

Holy s*** lol

[BTS]

Guessing 2 years ~ 40M

 

He wanted 3

 

I think he probably also didn't want to be there.

 

I wonder if they were prepared to trade Vaughn if he had accepted their offer.

[Jimcanuck]

Every player involved in that trade was a disaster in 2022

 

No. SWR was solid.

[Brownie19]

Well at least you can be objective. I’m not a fan of guys like Biggio, who the team very clearly doesn’t see as an everyday player, to the detriment of everyone here that knows he’s a key piece if he only gets the chance, and suddenly I hate all the Jays and I’m a Grinch lol

 

IMO, you've been overly negative about almost everything on here lately. I don't think anyone still thinks Biggio is a core piece, but some did want to see him get another shot to see what he could be once he was healthy again. But you knew he was s*** the whole time so you get a trophy. Nobody really knows what Berrios will be this year. There are obviously lots of reasons for optimism he will come back strong, but of course his career could suddenly be in decline and he'll continue to stink it up. I just don't get why you'd set your opinion on "hopefully he'll be a 4 ERA/FIP pitcher, but the upside doesn't look good and you don't want him as a top 3 option come playoff time".

[G-Snarls]

I'm just glad they traded Martin and not Kirk or Moreno

[connorp]

IMO, you've been overly negative about almost everything on here lately. I don't think anyone still thinks Biggio is a core piece, but some did want to see him get another shot to see what he could be once he was healthy again. But you knew he was s*** the whole time so you get a trophy. Nobody really knows what Berrios will be this year. There are obviously lots of reasons for optimism he will come back strong, but of course his career could suddenly be in decline and he'll continue to stink it up. I just don't get why you'd set your opinion on "hopefully he'll be a 4 ERA/FIP pitcher, but the upside doesn't look good and you don't want him as a top 3 option come playoff time".

 

I’m just overly vocal bro. Go back all you want but the only times you’ll find of me piling of the negative is Biggio, Danny J, Berrios, and the Teo trade.

 

I always saw Toronto as a playoff team last year, and this year too.. Springer, Bo, Vlad, Teo (as a Jay).. you won’t find me talking about how they such in Gameday like so many others. As a fan I’d like to see more focus on the playoff Jays rather than compiling the odd WAR gain here and there. Many teams when they get to the next level start making moves towards talking the next step. So I may cry when I think Jays go backwards in that respect but I’m a positive fan for sure

[connorp]

And Berrios has been been Dr.Jeckle/Hyde his whole career. Nothing wrong with saying he’s not the kind of guy you want to trust as your main SP come playoffs.

But hard to argue his value as someone in your rotation over the course of a year. This was the hot debate from before he was terrible. How to view him. It was always from a lens of WAR he was a Top 20 pitcher but FIP probably not even Top 50 in a reasonable sample size of starts. So you could always take 2 sides of the coin before the suckage

[G-Snarls]

If we had a healthy Ryu along with Gausman and Manoah there would be less pressure on Berrios. But that's not the case. There's a ton of pressure on him. We traded prospects and gave him a decent sized contract. Jays could really really use a solid few seasons from him.

[connorp]

If we had a healthy Ryu along with Gausman and Manoah there would be less pressure on Berrios. But that's not the case. There's a ton of pressure on him. We traded prospects and gave him a decent sized contract. Jays could really really use a solid few seasons from him.

 

Not to mention if the Jays missed out on Berrios, you can’t tell me they wouldn’t have been one of the main players for Castillo this year. Also, they probably had a shot on Castillo at the same time as Berrios. Also also, Berrios contract definitely has an effect on FA pursuits going forward. It’s not like NY, Bos, LAD where you can shrug your shoulders at a bad deal.

 

There’s a lot riding on him being good

[Carlos Danger]

If we had a healthy Ryu along with Gausman and Manoah there would be less pressure on Berrios. But that's not the case. There's a ton of pressure on him. We traded prospects and gave him a decent sized contract. Jays could really really use a solid few seasons from him.

 

Did anyone really expect a healthy and good Ryu at this point? I know I didn't..

[Jimcanuck]

Not to mention if the Jays missed out on Berrios, you can’t tell me they wouldn’t have been one of the main players for Castillo this year. Also, they probably had a shot on Castillo at the same time as Berrios. Also also, Berrios contract definitely has an effect on FA pursuits going forward. It’s not like NY, Bos, LAD where you can shrug your shoulders at a bad deal.

 

There’s a lot riding on him being good

 

Bro. Berrios could outperform Castillo this year.

[Stangstag]

Did anyone really expect a healthy and good Ryu at this point? I know I didn't..

 

I had a dream the Jays released Ryu, he ended up signing with the Os and came back in July pitching a CG shutout vs us.

 

So yeah he’s coming back, Jays should hold onto him

[wilko]

I had a dream the Jays released Ryu, he ended up signing with the Os and came back in July pitching a CG shutout vs us.

 

So yeah he’s coming back, Jays should hold onto him

 

I hope he comes back 400lbs throwing smoke.

[Carlos Danger]

I had a dream the Jays released Ryu, he ended up signing with the Os and came back in July pitching a CG shutout vs us.

 

So yeah he’s coming back, Jays should hold onto him

 

Not saying we should cut him. My point was/is, did anyone really expect him to be BOTH healthy and good at this point and term of the contract. If you did, then you are definitely an optimist...

[connorp]

Bro. Berrios could outperform Castillo this year.

 

Lots of stuff like that could happen, sure. Do you want to bet? Prob not.

Seattle is getting it. Seems they’re going after the wild card ticket Conforto

Most of this board licks Tampa’s nuts, so nothing wrong with admiring SEA making a push

[connorp]

I wonder what Kelenic would be worth at this point.

[max silver]

And Berrios has been been Dr.Jeckle/Hyde his whole career. Nothing wrong with saying he’s not the kind of guy you want to trust as your main SP come playoffs.

But hard to argue his value as someone in your rotation over the course of a year. This was the hot debate from before he was terrible. How to view him. It was always from a lens of WAR he was a Top 20 pitcher but FIP probably not even Top 50 in a reasonable sample size of starts. So you could always take 2 sides of the coin before the suckage

 

Is that actually true, or just a narrative that's not really backed up by his results?

 

I don't think anybody has argued that Berrios is a true #1 starter/ace type pitcher, but rather he is more of a very good number 2 in a good season/#3 in a more average season. Below is a quick breakdown of his starts from 2019 and 2021, which are his best two seasons up to this point. For comparisons sake I've also included 2022 results.

 

2022 Season

0-3 FIP: 12 starts

3-4 FIP:7 starts

4-5 FIP: 3 starts

5-10 FIP: 3 starts

10+ FIP: 7 starts

 

 

2021 Season

 

0-3 FIP:15 starts

3-4 FIP:5 starts

4-5 FIP: 5 starts

5-10 FIP: 7 starts

10+ FIP: 0 starts

 

2019 Season

 

0-3 FIP: 11 starts

3-4 FIP: 7 starts

4-5 FIP: 7 starts

5-10 FIP: 6 starts

10+ FIP: 1 start

 

I recall a troll who was ranting on about how Berrios would have 1 good start and then 2 bad starts (don't think it was you specifically connorp), but this certainly doesn't seem to be the case. In 2019 Berrios had 20 starts which looked legitimately good, with 5 more that were at least league average or so, and 7 poor starts. 2019 had 18 good starts, 7 average or so, 6 bad starts, and 1 disaster. Hopefully Berrios can regain the form he displayed in 2021, as there were far fewer disastrous starts that season.

[connorp]

He’s a 4 FIP pitcher. It stands to reason he often mixes good games with bad ones. No I wasn’t the troll, but I think you’re taking the point way too literally: 1 good start, then two bad ones. Like do you think someone actually thinks that’s a concrete pattern? Lol. It’s just a way of saying he’s too inconsistent to be a front line pitcher. Again, there’s no sense continuing to argue about his WAR. It’s perfectly fine to see it that way. It’s perfectly fine to look at his 4.00 career FIP and judge him that way too. Neither side is wrong. Usually when two sides have a point, it makes for a hot debate

 

It’s all opinion, but if he doesn’t put up a career year in 2021, I doubt he gets that contract. 3.40 FIP and 4.00 FIP pitcher are a little different. I imagine Jays thought he was taking that next step handing out the contract

[connorp]

Luis Castillo kind of has the same roller coaster thing he’ll put you on…but the stuff is more Ace-y

[Ehjays]