Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Grant77]

43 actually. Getting some pre-requisite classes done before hoping to get a degree in Nutrition in the next 4-ish years. The program requires 30 University level credits from certain classes before you can even apply to it.

 

Working on Biology right now, the Diversity of Life, with 2 classes of Chemistry and 1 more english lit class to go.

 

I have a Biology degree. Some of the less relevant knowledge has faded away, but if you ever need any advice then feel free to shoot me a message and I will try my best.

[Deadpool]

 

Anyone with a sub to The Athletic want to post this here? I'm not really a big Keith Law fan, but I'm starving for Jays content, dammit!

[jays4life19]

1. Gabriel Moreno, C (Top 100 ranking: No. 6)

Age: 22 | 5-11 | 160 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Moreno exploded in Double A to start 2021, hitting a hilarious .373/.441/.651 in 32 games for New Hampshire, before a pitch broke one of his thumbs and kept him out more than two months. He returned for a few games in September in Triple A, then went to the Arizona Fall League and the Venezuelan Winter League, getting another 40 games of reps and raking in both places. Moreno is an incredibly athletic catcher, moving extremely well behind the plate, and has an above-average arm. He’s an above-average defender, handling short hops well and showing great facility to move the glove around, but could easily slide to other positions if the need arose, especially third base. At the plate, Moreno has a short, quick stroke that leads to a lot of contact. He has excellent plate coverage as well, so he doesn’t run many deep counts, at least not yet, and might end up getting most of his on-base percentage from his high batting averages. A premium defender behind the plate who puts the ball in play a ton and has some pop is a potential impact player on both sides of the ball, and his unusual athleticism for the position makes him the type of player you should bet will improve when he needs to.

 

2. Orelvis Martinez, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 44)

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 188 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Signed for $3.5 million in 2018, Martinez finally got to make his full-season debut in 2021, hitting .279/.369/.572 in 72 games for Low-A Dunedin, leading the Low-A Southeast League in slugging by 60 points even though Dunedin is a tough park for power hitters. Including a late-season promotion to High-A Vancouver, he hit 28 homers in 98 games, with an acceptable 25 percent strikeout rate, all as a 19-year-old playing the left side of the infield. He’s a fringe runner with a plus arm, already getting too big for shortstop but very likely to end up a solid defender at third base. His value is in his bat, though, as he has excellent bat speed and is short to the ball with plus power already, projecting to 30-plus bombs in the majors. His ultimate value will come down to where he plays and whether he can keep his contact rate up as he faces better pitching, with the potential to be an impact cleanup hitter when he hits his peak years.

 

3. Kevin Smith, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 89)

Age: 25 | 6-1 | 190 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 129 in 2017

 

Smith hit .209/.263/.402 in Double A in 2019 with below-average defense at shortstop, on top of a poor performance in High A the year before, and anyone who’d bet on him reaching the big leagues in the next season probably would have gotten incredible odds on it. He started to rework things at the plate in the middle of that season, continuing it at the alt site in 2020, and it paid off in 2021, as Smith hit .285/.370/.561 in Triple A with a career-best walk rate and big cut in his strikeout rate. He’d made some adjustments in 2019 to try to get to more high fastballs, but it cost him coverage to the rest of the zone, while in 2021 he was back to his previous swing while also working to be more selective early in counts, looking for pitches where he can do damage. He’s also staying quieter at the plate, keeping his head steadier and loading his back hip earlier to get to more power without sacrificing contact. It’s worked, and as a middle infielder who’s an above-average defender at multiple spots and has power, he has a chance to have a long, productive career.

 

4. Jordan Groshans, 3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 99)

Age: 22 | 6-3 | 205 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 12 in 2018

 

Groshans had another injury-interrupted season where he performed well when he was able to play, hitting .291/.367/.450 despite jumping two levels to Double A — and that after playing only 23 games in Low A back in 2019. He’s already shown some advanced skills at the plate, from his swing decisions to his ability to drive the ball the other way, with the potential for 20+ homers once he adds a little more strength. Groshans played more shortstop than third base this year, but he’s not a shortstop, and while he might end up a solid-average defender at third, he’s going to have to work on his flexibility and avoid getting too tightly wound as he continues to bulk up. He has a plus arm that will help him at third or, in the worst case scenario, if he has to move to right field. He’s a well-rounded player who does a little of everything but hits with the feel of a player who’s older and has more than the 619 pro plate appearances he has, so he should be a solid-average regular even if he never takes a big leap in power or has to move off the dirt.

 

5. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-4 | 220 pounds

Bats: Left | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 19 in 2021

 

Hoglund had a chance to go in the top 10 last spring, but his elbow screamed and he underwent Tommy John surgery in May, which is how the Blue Jays found him available when they picked at 19th overall. Hoglund’s value was in his present command and control, which were already above-average at the time of his injury, as he didn’t have anything above a 55 in his arsenal. He walked just 35 guys in 154 career innings for Ole Miss, and that was going to get him through the low minors quickly, at least. He’ll probably come back slowly this year but be ready for Double A in 2023, with fourth starter potential once he’s recovered.

 

6. Leo Jimenez, SS

Age: 21 | 5-11 | 160 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Jimenez had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of any hitter in a full-season league last year (minimum 200 PA), with 54 walks and just 36 strikeouts in 262 plate appearances. The Panamanian shortstop is an elite defender, possibly a 70, despite just average speed at best. He hit his first professional home run in 2021, so power is not a core skill here, but his exit velocities have been creeping up and he can show average power in BP. He may need to get more aggressive in games, trading some of those walks for more oomph, to use the technical term; with his glove it won’t take much of that oomph to make him a regular.

 

7. Manuel Beltre, SS/2B

Age: 18 | 5-9 | 155 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Signed for $2.35 million in January 2021, Beltre didn’t hit for average last year but did everything else, from getting on base to making hard contact to playing above-average defense at shortstop. Just 5-9, 155 pounds, the fun-sized Beltre was posting exit velocities over 100 mph while making great swing decisions. He’s a reliable shortstop with an accurate arm and good footwork, making routine plays already, not rangy enough for highlight plays but enough to project as a 55 defender there. The bat has a chance to be special for a shortstop, and in a larger sample he probably won’t post a .258 BABIP again.

 

8. Sem Robberse, RHP

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 160 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

The Dutch right-hander Robberse was just in the mid-80s when the Jays first signed him out of the Honkbal Hoofdklasse in 2019, but he was sitting 92-94 last year and bumping 96. He’s always had a great delivery, and as his velocity has improved, both of his breaking balls have as well, with a good chance that one of them will end up a plus pitch. He needs to develop a viable changeup, as he’s already showing a big platoon split, but if he does that he has mid-rotation upside.

 

9. Ricky Tiedemann, RHP

Age: 19 | 6-4 | 220 pounds

Bats: Left | Throws: Left

Drafted: No. 91 in 2021

 

Tiedemann was the Blue Jays’ third-round pick in 2021 out of a two-year college in California, where he went after he went undrafted in 2020 (which scouts said at the time was more about his bonus demands than any real question about his abilities). He was 89-93 in the spring with an above-average changeup and future 55 slider, with size and delivery also in his favor. In instructs, he was sitting 96 and touched 98, and still throwing a ton of strikes. If he carries that over into 2022, he’ll be their best pitching prospect in May.

 

10. Otto Lopez, 2B/OF

Age: 23 | 5-10 | 160 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Lopez spent 2019 in Low A and finished 2021 in the majors, thanks to a year of high contact rates and doubles power across Double and Triple A. He has quick hands at the plate and covers the plate well, hitting for contact but no power, as he finishes open and doesn’t get anything from his lower half; I’d worry about right-handed breaking stuff giving him trouble, but it hasn’t happened so far. He’s a fringy defender at several spots, mostly second base and left field. He’s an above-average runner and played center for the Gigantes del Cibao in the Dominican Winter League this winter, which could help him find a role as a super-utility guy if he doesn’t hit enough to be a regular at second. A multi-position or bench role is his most likely outcome unless he finds another grade of power.

 

11. Rikelbin De Castro, SS/2B

Age: 19 | 6-0 | 150 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

De Castro made his pro debut last year at age 18 in the Florida Complex League, making adjustments during the season so that in the second half of his summer, he was both hitting the ball harder and showing better command of the strike zone. He’s an exciting defender at short who’ll need more reps to improve on the routine play, but there’s no reason he can’t end up a 55 defender at short or plus at second. He’s athletic and still really projectable, with the potential for another grade of power or more. With the caveat that this sort of thin-slicing is dangerous for drawing conclusions, if you split his 2021 season in two, he hit .327/.485/.577 in the second half, with 14 walks and 17 strikeouts. I’ll buy that more if he carries those adjustments over into 2022, but it’s a good sign that he showed he could improve within a short campaign.

 

12. Estiven Machado, 2B

Age: 19 | 5-10 | 170 pounds

Bats: Switch | Throws: Right

 

Machado played one game, and got one at bat, last season due to a hamstring injury that wouldn’t clear up, so we’re still dealing in projections and tools with no performance to judge. Signed for $775,000 in 2019, Machado is a great athlete and already filled out, so the expectation for last year was that he’d show at least good doubles power and quality contact, maybe getting into some power early. He’s an average runner — with two working hamstrings, that is — who’ll have to maintain his body to stay at shortstop, with the hands and arm to handle the position. He just barely took the field last year.

 

13. Miguel Hiraldo, 2B/3B

Age: 21 | 5-11 | 170 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Signed for $750,000 in 2017, Hiraldo had a mediocre full-season debut at age 20 last year, hitting .249/.338/.390, doing nearly all of his damage against lefties (when he had the platoon advantage). Hiraldo has strong hands and good bat speed, but can over-rotate and pull off the ball; if the ball is spinning away from him, he has very little shot to hit it squarely. He’s not a shortstop and will have to work to be average at second or third. He’s just 20 with some physical ability in his favor, but he’s getting passed quickly by other infielders in this system.

 

14. Dasan Brown, OF

Age: 20 | 6-0 | 185 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 88 in 2019

 

Brown is an 80 runner and plus defender in center who has tremendous bat speed but has had difficulty getting his timing right at the plate, often finding himself a fraction of a second late and out of position to make good contact. The Blue Jays did help him make a swing adjustment towards the end of the 2021 season that seemed to help his timing issue; with his speed and defense he doesn’t have to hit a lot to be a big-leaguer.

 

15. Eric Pardinho, RHP

Age: 21 | 5-9 | 155 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Pardinho returned from Tommy John surgery to make two brief outings in the Florida Complex League in July, but an unrelated elbow issue led to him being shut him down again, and the Jays chose not to protect him on their 40-man roster this November. He’s a very poised, mature pitcher for someone so young and inexperienced, with a potential plus curveball and solid-average velocity back when he was healthy. He’s also 5-9, which makes him an unlikely starter (but not an impossible one), and he’s had elbow issues for three straight seasons now, so even if he’s completely recovered, it’ll be a long ramp to get him back up to a starter’s workload.

 

16. CJ Van Eyk, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-1 | 198 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 42 in 2020

 

Van Eyk’s results didn’t match his stuff in 2021, as he was sitting 93-94 with four pitches, led by a curveball that’s above-average. He had two disaster starts where he couldn’t get out of the first inning, adding over a run to his ERA for the entire season, but he needs to throw more strikes, not just in terms of reducing walks but in getting ahead in counts so he can use his three offspeed pitches, any of which can show above-average. He still projects as a starter but at 23 this year he has to show better command.

 

17. Samad Taylor, 2B

Age: 23 | 5-10 | 160 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 302 in 2016

 

Taylor was a surprising omission from the Jays’ 40-man roster, coming off a breakout year where he played solid-average defense at second and posted career highs in homers (16), OBP (.385), and slugging (.503), along with 30 steals in 38 attempts. He was helped some by Double-A New Hampshire’s home park, although that park tends to be more favorable to left-handed power, not right. He’s versatile in the field, with reps at third, left, center, and even short, although that last position is more of an emergency spot for him. I think he’s a solid bench piece right now and expect to see him taken in the Rule 5 draft.

 

18. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP

Age: 21 | 6-5 | 243 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 88 in 2018

 

The 6-5, 240+ pound Kloffenstein, who went to high school with Groshans and was drafted in the same year, had a rough full-season debut in 2021, walking 61 batters in 101 1/3 innings, a major reason he had an ERA over 6. He’s sitting 92ish now, back down after he ticked up while pitching in Indy ball during the shutdown in 2020. He’ll flash two breaking balls that could be above-average or better weapons for him, but still lacks a pitch that he can use to get lefties out; they tagged him for a .388 OBP and .508 SLG last year. Step one will be getting back to throwing strikes, though, or he has no future as a starter.

 

19. Irv Carter, RHP

Age: 19 | 6-4 | 210 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 152 in 2021

 

The Blue Jays’ fifth-round pick in 2021 out of a Florida high school, Carter is a physical kid already and saw his velocity tick up a little after he signed, sitting 94 in instructs. He comes from a high slot that puts some plane on the fastball and gives depth to his breaking ball. He’ll have to develop a changeup and work on getting more consistency to his delivery and fastball command. He does look like the kind of high school kid who’s going to throw very hard and be ready to shoulder a big workload in three-to-four years.

[jays4life19]

20. Hayden Juenger, RHP

Age: 21 | 6-0 | 180 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 182 in 2021

 

The Jays’ sixth-round pick in 2021, Juenger went right to High A and dominated in 20 innings, striking out 46 percent of the 74 batters he faced. He sat 95 and can hit 97, with a 55 slider and fringe-average changeup; he could move very quickly this year as a pure 1-2 inning reliever.

[Abomination]

Those seem like pretty fair analysis

[Krylian]

Kevin Smith at 3 is surprising.

[jerb]

 

MLB Trade Rumors

@mlbtraderumors

 

Blue Jays "Very Interested" In Tyler Mahle Prior To Lockout https://t.co/eK6gvxA4x5

[Ehjays]

 

MLB Trade Rumors

@mlbtraderumors

 

Blue Jays "Very Interested" In Tyler Mahle Prior To Lockout https://t.co/eK6gvxA4x5

 

Blue Jays “Very Interested” In Tyler Mahle Prior To Lockout

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2022 at 12:51pm CDT

 

The Blue Jays had Tyler Mahle on their radar as a trade target before the lockout, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell hears from a source that the Jays “were very interested” in the Reds right-hander. The exact timing of the Jays’ interest isn’t specified, or whether or not the club may have moved on from big-ticket pitching acquisitions after signing Kevin Gausman.

 

Cincinnati GM Nick Krall began the offseason with a quick trade of catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers, and followed that deal up with his now somewhat infamous statement that the Reds “must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” Wade Miley (who had a $10MM club option for 2022) was then placed on waivers and claimed by the Cubs, thus sparking even more speculation about just how much payroll the Reds were looking to shed.

 

As such, players like Mahle, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and many other veteran Reds players were immediately seen as trade candidates, even though Cincinnati didn’t make any other overt cost-cutting transactions before the lockout hit. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco speculated last month, it could be that between the Barnhart/Miley moves and Nick Castellanos’ likely free agent departure, the Reds might have already gotten their finances in order. On top of that, the Reds were reportedly open to discussing Gray in trade talks but not either Mahle or Castillo.

 

This isn’t to say that the Reds wouldn’t at least listen if Toronto or another team came calling with a big offer, and if the Reds still had designs on contending in 2022, the Blue Jays could offer some combination of both young talent and big league-ready pieces. Cincinnati would likely only accept such a significant trade package for Mahle given that he is both controlled through the 2023 season and coming off the strongest of his five years in the majors.

 

The 27-year-old righty has been both durable (227 2/3 innings) and effective since the start of the 2020 season, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate, though Mahle’s 8.9% walk rate was below the league average. Mahle did have strong fastball spin rates in both seasons, and 2021 saw Mahle post far and away the best hard-hit ball rate of his career.

 

Mahle seems overqualified for a fourth or fifth starter role, yet that might be where he lines up in a Toronto rotation that also consists of Gausman, Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah. Ross Stripling is penciled in as the fifth starter for the moment, though as Mitchell notes, Stripling “profiles better as a swingman and spot starter” than as a regular rotation member. Top prospect Nate Pearson is likely going to be on an innings limit after two injury-plagued seasons, so while a Pearson/Stripling combo isn’t bad on paper, the Jays might prefer to shift both pitchers into depth roles and cement their rotation by adding some sort of veteran starter, perhaps even one as accomplished as Mahle.

 

While it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will ultimately deal any of its three starters, the fact that all three may be available to some degree gives the Reds some leverage in talks. In that sense, the Jays aren’t only bidding against other teams interested in Mahle, but also against what other teams (like the Dodgers or Angels) might offer the Reds for Castillo and/or Gray. Given how aggressive Toronto GM Ross Atkins has been in searching out pitching options over the last few years, it is probably safe to assume that the Jays have also checked in on obtaining Castillo or Gray, though only the Blue Jays front office knows which Cincinnati starter is their chief target.

[Terminator]

Mahle is pretty good. Ditching his change up and adding a splitter seem to have really helped him out. He'd be a great add.

[Brownie19]

Mahle is pretty good. Ditching his change up and adding a splitter seem to have really helped him out. He'd be a great add.

 

what would he cost to acquire?

[Jimcanuck]

Gotta wonder if the Jays take on the Moustakas contract as part of a deal.

 

I see a rebound from Moose after a couple of injury plagued seasons, might not be too bad.

[Jimcanuck]

what would he cost to acquire?

 

If the Jays take on the Moose Contract, maybe 2 prospects in the Jays list, 15-25 range?

[Brownie19]

If the Jays take on the Moose Contract, maybe 2 prospects in the Jays list, 15-25 range?

 

Well f*** - that's a no brainer as long as Rogers opens the purse up. With Orelvis, Groshans and Moreno - I really like the idea of a short term solution at 3rd base.

[Jimcanuck]

Well f*** - that's a no brainer as long as Rogers opens the purse up. With Orelvis, Groshans and Moreno - I really like the idea of a short term solution at 3rd base.

 

Moustakas' D has declined, although that may be due to playing through injuries.....

[Vdubfan]

Anyone have BP with access to today’s PECOTA standings release?

[jerb]

[Terminator]

[Terminator]

I would probably agree with everything there other than Jansen not being a starting Catcher. I think at worst he good enough to be a starter somewhere but has potential to be a lot more.

[Deadpool]

 

Yeah, not protecting Samad wasn't a great move, IMO.

[Krylian]

Yeah, not protecting Samad wasn't a great move, IMO.

 

Won't be happy if he turns into something good somewhere else... For free.

[John_Havok]

I would probably agree with everything there other than Jansen not being a starting Catcher. I think at worst he good enough to be a starter somewhere but has potential to be a lot more.

 

Yeah, i mean, we've already seen and experienced Jansen's worst and he was still positive value. There's nothing in Jansen's game that says he's not starting calibre anywhere in baseball.

[Ehjays]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/frank-herrmann-joins-blue-jays-front-office.html

 

 

Frank Herrmann Joins Blue Jays’ Front Office

By Anthony Franco | February 18, 2022 at 10:12pm CDT

 

Former big league reliever Frank Herrmann recently joined the Blue Jays’ front office, as first reported by David Laurila of FanGraphs (on Twitter). He’ll split his time between the scouting, player development and baseball operations departments.

 

Herrmann, 37, appeared in parts of four big league seasons. He spent the 2010-12 campaigns with the Indians, where his time as a player overlapped with Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro’s and general manager Ross Atkins’ stints in the Cleveland front office. The right-hander spent the next couple seasons in Triple-A but returned to the bigs in 2016, making 14 appearances with the Phillies.

 

Over 135 1/3 MLB innings, Herrmann pitched to a 4.72 ERA. He only punched out 14.8% of batters faced but threw plenty of strikes (5.8% walk rate). After the 2016 campaign, Herrmann made the move to Japan. He signed with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball. He’d spend three years with the Eagles before catching on with the Chiba Lotte Marines, where he closed out his playing career with a final two seasons.

 

Herrmann was a productive reliever in NPB. Over his five seasons, he worked to a 3.02 ERA. That mark is inflated a bit by a 5.19 figure he posted last year, but Herrmann put up an ERA of 3.04 or lower in each of his first four seasons in Japan. A Harvard graduate, he’ll now transition to his post-playing days. Herrmann brings 16 years of professional playing experience to his role in Toronto’s baseball ops.

[Ehjays]

[Dick_Pole]

I wonder how long it's going to take before everyone is going to start calling the Indians the Guardians? Or is it like one of those things when you're referring to the Cleveland team before 2021 it's still the Indians? Definitely not catching on as smoothly as "Washington Football Team" was.

[Abomination]

I wonder how long it's going to take before everyone is going to start calling the Indians the Guardians? Or is it like one of those things when you're referring to the Cleveland team before 2021 it's still the Indians? Definitely not catching on as smoothly as "Washington Football Team" was.

 

How many people still call our stadium "Skydome"? Even the sportscasters often do.

[Dick_Pole]

How many people still call our stadium "Skydome"? Even the sportscasters often do.

 

I've trained myself to exclusively say Rogers Centre now even though I hate it. I passed the fake age test with all of the college chicks on Tinder until Skydome slip ups. I won't make that mistake again.

[BigCecil]

I've trained myself to exclusively say Rogers Centre now even though I hate it. I passed the fake age test with all of the college chicks on Tinder until Skydome slip ups. I won't make that mistake again.

 

LOL....made me laugh. grumpy ol' codger on Tinder. I just cant picture that with you hombre lol

[Spanky99]

LOL....made me laugh. grumpy ol' codger on Tinder. I just cant picture that with you hombre lol

 

lol... same.

[jerb]

[Abomination]

 

It looks like the manufacturer sewed the patch on inside out lol. Why can't they just make normal hats?