Bigger Priority to Re-Sign: Semien or Ray?

[max silver]

fWAR also says Wade Miley and Ranger Suarez were more valuable than Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes and Lance Lynn. There are weird outliners in bWAR and fWAR.

 

I think when I did the math, another 32 starts made by Berrios (20) and Manoah (12) provided another 4.5 fWAR. If I use the bWAR, they would provide another 4 WAR. I'm not sure I'm willing to expect much more than 4 bWAR from Ray next year....maybe you could bank on 5 bWAR, which means it's still 'close' to replacing Ray's value.

 

I don't expect Ray to fully recreate what he did in 2021 either but I still think it would be in the team's best interest to sign another top starter if they fail to retain Ray. Whether it's someone like Rodon, Gausman, Syndergaard etc. it is apparent that another quality starter is needed as once you get past the first 3 in the Jays rotation the remaining options are underwhelming to say the least.

[Brownie19]

I don't expect Ray to fully recreate what he did in 2021 either but I still think it would be in the team's best interest to sign another top starter if they fail to retain Ray. Whether it's someone like Rodon, Gausman, Syndergaard etc. it is apparent that another quality starter is needed as once you get past the first 3 in the Jays rotation the remaining options are underwhelming to say the least.

 

And my point is that we lack depth. Going the depth route typically has less risk (as you avoid the long term, high $ commitments, which almost never work out), cost less and protect the team better against injuries (which should be expected). Oh - and ever once in awhile, you find yourself a top of the rotation arm.

 

1. Berrios

2. Manoah

3. Ryu

4. FA / trade

5. FA / trade

6. Pearson

7. Stripling

8. Hatch

9. ???

10. ???

 

Signing a top arm would be great, but that may push Pearson/Stripling back into the rotation and if we have injuries, the cupboard gets pretty bare in a hurry.

 

Also, keep in mind that Ray, Rodon and Gausman were all 'depth' signings with upside who became studs.

[BigCecil]

And my point is that we lack depth. Going the depth route typically has less risk (as you avoid the long term, high $ commitments, which almost never work out), cost less and protect the team better against injuries (which should be expected). Oh - and ever once in awhile, you find yourself a top of the rotation arm.

 

1. Berrios

2. Manoah

3. Ryu

4. FA / trade

5. FA / trade

6. Pearson

7. Stripling

8. Hatch

9. ???

10. ???

 

Signing a top arm would be great, but that may push Pearson/Stripling back into the rotation and if we have injuries, the cupboard gets pretty bare in a hurry.

 

Also, keep in mind that Ray, Rodon and Gausman were all 'depth' signings with upside who became studs.

 

You forgot Thorton and Kay!...uh...nevermind.

[Spanky99]

Ray is seriously underrated if you look at Fangraphs WAR only. He is penalized very heavily for home runs allowed even though they were frequently solo shots due to the lack of baserunners he allowed. Baseball Reference paints a very different picture with 6.7 WAR placing him third in baseball.

 

His RA9 is at 7.1, tops in the MLB. 3rd time through Ray's been rocked though.

[Krylian]

Who is more likely to continue performing at a high level over 2, 3, 4 years?

 

Ray or Semien?

[JFD]

Who is more likely to continue performing at a high level over 2, 3, 4 years?

 

Ray or Semien?

 

Semien... but

 

What is more likely to tank the team next year? Missing Ray or Semien?

[tazsub3]

I say ray is both the biggest need and the biggest risk.

But to win you need to take risks and now is the time to take it.

We need two starters to begin, so losing him would be problematic with not many cy young candidates available on the market

[G-Snarls]

I want both but if I have to pick I pick Ray

[Dokken]

I don't think it is mission critical to resign either of Semien or Ray. The Jays should NOT overpay for either of these guys. But I am more partial to Semien, as long as he is OK continuing to play 2B (or is he a possible 3B candidate?). Semien is the real deal, but I fear Robbie Ray has peaked and now that the AL has had a full season to see him, he is very vulnerable because he has succeeded in 2021 by mainly using the 4SFB and SL. Two pitch starting pitchers often end up like Ray did this past Thursday (lit up 3rd time through the order by the Yankees). I would keep him at 2 years $30M, with a 3rd year option at $20 M or $5M buyout ($35M guaranteed). I would consider Semien at 4 years, $90-100M, to be worth signing.

[Spanky99]

I want both but if I have to pick I pick Ray

 

I want Ray/Semien and Matz back... then sign/trade for some good BP pieces. Shop at home Birds!

[Krylian]

I want Ray/Semien and Matz back... then sign/trade for some good BP pieces. Shop at home Birds!

 

Would be nice but,

 

a) they have to want to come back

can't pay a massive Toronto tax to convince them to come back

 

I think Ray genuinely likes it here.

Semien I feel is a hired assassin and would return but on his terms (maximum dollar and term).

Matz I feel would rather be elsewhere, but I base than on nothing other than gut feel.

[John_Havok]

It would definitely be optically terrible for the franchise to watch a Cy Young finalist (possible winner) and a guy whos going to get MVP votes walk, but at the same time, you cant just givem a blank check.

 

There's enough history for both of them for any front office to be wary of signing either of them to big money, long term deals.

 

Semien is probably the better bet to be closer to his 2021 performance going forward but that's probably true of all position players vs pitchers in general. Ray is basically a 2 pitch starter and somehow makes it work. Would it really surprise anyone to see Ray lose his command and be terrible next year? Would it really surprise anyone for Semien have 20 HR next year rather than 45?

 

Not really.

 

To me Semien is the safer bet because he still has that 20HR, excellent defense floor. He's still probably a 3-4 WAR player without 40+ HR. But Ray could be even more amazing if he developed the change to be average to compliment the Fastball and slider. His curve could still be a show me pitch that he uses 2-5 times a game just for something different.

[Stangstag]

Would be nice but,

 

a) they have to want to come back

can't pay a massive Toronto tax to convince them to come back

 

I think Ray genuinely likes it here.

Semien I feel is a hired assassin and would return but on his terms (maximum dollar and term).

Matz I feel would rather be elsewhere, but I base than on nothing other than gut feel.

 

I feel like there’s a good chance Matz signs back with the Mets

[Spanky99]

It would definitely be optically terrible for the franchise to watch a Cy Young finalist (possible winner) and a guy whos going to get MVP votes walk, but at the same time, you cant just givem a blank check.

 

There's enough history for both of them for any front office to be wary of signing either of them to big money, long term deals.

 

Semien is probably the better bet to be closer to his 2021 performance going forward but that's probably true of all position players vs pitchers in general. Ray is basically a 2 pitch starter and somehow makes it work. Would it really surprise anyone to see Ray lose his command and be terrible next year? Would it really surprise anyone for Semien have 20 HR next year rather than 45?

 

Not really.

 

To me Semien is the safer bet because he still has that 20HR, excellent defense floor. He's still probably a 3-4 WAR player without 40+ HR. But Ray could be even more amazing if he developed the change to be average to compliment the Fastball and slider. His curve could still be a show me pitch that he uses 2-5 times a game just for something different.

 

Steamer 600 is rolling with you at 3.7 fWAR... worthy of a nice payday. Robbie Ray at 4.4 fWAR, Matz 3.2

[Stangstag]

It would definitely be optically terrible for the franchise to watch a Cy Young finalist (possible winner) and a guy whos going to get MVP votes walk, but at the same time, you cant just givem a blank check.

 

There's enough history for both of them for any front office to be wary of signing either of them to big money, long term deals.

 

Semien is probably the better bet to be closer to his 2021 performance going forward but that's probably true of all position players vs pitchers in general. Ray is basically a 2 pitch starter and somehow makes it work. Would it really surprise anyone to see Ray lose his command and be terrible next year? Would it really surprise anyone for Semien have 20 HR next year rather than 45?

 

Not really.

 

To me Semien is the safer bet because he still has that 20HR, excellent defense floor. He's still probably a 3-4 WAR player without 40+ HR. But Ray could be even more amazing if he developed the change to be average to compliment the Fastball and slider. His curve could still be a show me pitch that he uses 2-5 times a game just for something different.

 

True, but who gives a f*** what the media thinks pre-season. Look at the Rays and what they did

[John_Havok]

True, but who gives a f*** what the media thinks pre-season. Look at the Rays and what they did

 

You can firmly put me in the camp of not caring about optics. Just saying it is a reality that the FO needs to deal with

[Stangstag]

You can firmly put me in the camp of not caring about optics. Just saying it is a reality that the FO needs to deal with

 

As long as they WIN, all will be forgiven

[Spanky99]

I feel like there’s a good chance Matz signs back with the Mets

 

Why would he go back there, of all places?

[Key22]

The Jays have $80million to spend - they should be able to sign both but I take Semien if you can land him - if Bo gets hurt you have a real frontline SS as a backup. Few may be no other teams have that. Pitching is riskier but if you win a Cy Young there is a reason and you want elite pitching in short playoff series - WAR is all well and good but you want the best in the big game - the Jays are now a winning club with WS aspirations - you need to go and get those big arms. But maybe you can just sign a 1 year deal for the likes of a Sherzer.

 

Berrios mitigates losing Ray but if you are giving up Martin and SWR to win this year and next year then losing 6+ WAR in Ray - well you need to get those 6 wins back - 91 wins wasn't enough then 85 wins certainly won't be next year. And I don't think the goal should be to play a one-game playoff - the goal should be to take the division - the talent is here now to do that. $80m you sign both and Matz. You sign two shut-down arms for the pen - Maybe add another bat at third. Still under the $80m probably around $60m.

 

I think Semien probably has to get a Springer contract.

[Stangstag]

Why would he go back there, of all places?

 

From NY, played there before, had success there before, Mets will be looking to add pitching

[Stangstag]

The Jays have $80million to spend - they should be able to sign both but I take Semien if you can land him - if Bo gets hurt you have a real frontline SS as a backup. Few may be no other teams have that. Pitching is riskier but if you win a Cy Young there is a reason and you want elite pitching in short playoff series - WAR is all well and good but you want the best in the big game - the Jays are now a winning club with WS aspirations - you need to go and get those big arms. But maybe you can just sign a 1 year deal for the likes of a Sherzer.

 

Berrios mitigates losing Ray but if you are giving up Martin and SWR to win this year and next year then losing 6+ WAR in Ray - well you need to get those 6 wins back - 91 wins wasn't enough then 85 wins certainly won't be next year. And I don't think the goal should be to play a one-game playoff - the goal should be to take the division - the talent is here now to do that. $80m you sign both and Matz. You sign two shut-down arms for the pen - Maybe add another bat at third. Still under the $80m probably around $60m.

 

I think Semien probably has to get a Springer contract.

 

Or... try to make shrewd/short-term signings like Ray and Semien were last offseason.

 

Maybe sign 1 of them back and 1 guy like Story (if he takes a 1 year deal) or Syndergard

[Spanky99]

Or... try to make shrewd/short-term signings like Ray and Semien were last offseason.

 

Maybe sign 1 of them back and 1 guy like Story (if he takes a 1 year deal) or Syndergard

 

Why would Story take a 1 year pillow deal? I doubt it, this whole draft class is looking at multiple years, depends on the ask. I can't even see Taylor taking that.

[Stangstag]

Why would Story take a 1 year pillow deal? I doubt it, this whole draft class is looking at multiple years, depends on the ask. I can't even see Taylor taking that.

 

Ok forget Story, the point still stands

[Spanky99]

Ok forget Story, the point still stands

 

[Ryu In My House]

Bobby Tightpants is my choice, with Biggio back at 2B and Groshans (or a FA) at 3B.

 

No Espinal love? His metrics are eye popping.

[Jimcanuck]

No Espinal love? His metrics are eye popping.

 

Espinal can capably play all over the field. His value is max'ed in that role as opposed to a regular at 3B or wherever. Will still get his 400-500 PA.

[Deadpool]

No Espinal love? His metrics are eye popping.

 

Which is why he's a perfect infield bench piece.

 

I can't get past his complete lack of pop. I could very easily see Espinal pulling a Jansen for large chunks of his career, just being brutalized by BABIP because he doesn't have the strength to put anything over the walls.

[Ryu In My House]

Which is why he's a perfect infield bench piece.

 

I can't get past his complete lack of pop. I could very easily see Espinal pulling a Jansen for large chunks of his career, just being brutalized by BABIP because he doesn't have the strength to put anything over the walls.

 

If he does everything else well, and we hit lots of dingers as a team, is it necessary?

 

Maybe he is the super sub the FO has wanted Biggio to be.

[Deadpool]

If he does everything else well, and we hit lots of dingers as a team, is it necessary?

 

Maybe he is the super sub the FO has wanted Biggio to be.

 

If he manages the exact batted ball luck he had this season, it wouldn't be necessary. but a 20% drop in BABIP (grounders finding gloves, flares not dropping in etc), and suddenly he's not close to starting calibre.

 

There's a lot more wiggle room if you can put the occasional ball over the wall.

[glory]

Even if you are confident that 2021 Espinal is legit, I would still have him as a super sub to start the season. There's just too much volatility there offensively to be comfortable starting him out of the gate. The only exception would be if they re-signed Semien and had to go cheap at 3B. He'll still get a ton of PA's in that role either way.