Official Spring Training 2021 GDT/discussion thread

[P2F]

I'd like to apologize in advance for this joke, but Kevin Smith makes a Quick Stop at second after a double...

 

Sounds like he's the Cleat Commander!

[Deadpool]

Christoper Sanchez has an impressive 14 pitches, 3 strikes through 4 batters (double, walk, walk, HBP)

[Deadpool]

Christoper Sanchez walks another one (19P 5Strikes) and the Phillies blatantly violate the rules, pulling him after 19 pitches instead of the requisite 20. I assume Chuckles will be playing the remainder of the game under protest.

[Deadpool]

Annnnd they just decide "f*** it" and call the game.

 

As there is no feed, I can't confirm that there was a bench clearing brawl, but it would be posting malpractice for me not to speculate wildly.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Aw man, Jiminez was up with bases loaded and nobody out and Orelvis was on deck.

 

f***ing Phillies

[Ray]

Orelvis Martinez' single had a 105 mph exit velocity.

 

Next uber prospect

 

International scouting dept is killing it these days! Shout out to Andrew Tinnish.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Ray

[Ray]

Matz is gonna end up having a better year than Walker and then I’m gonna laugh at the Mets.

[Jays24]

Next uber prospect

 

Internal scouting dept is killing it these days! Shout out to Andrew Tinnish.

 

Looks like Groshans, Martin and Martinez will be on the cusp of breaking through with the team in 2022. Of course we'll see how the minor league season goes before getting too far head of ourselves but I'm really curious who will survive and remain with the team. There wont be enough playing time available for all of them.

 

Its such a great problem to have, one that I don't think we've ever had in my lifetime. My guess is that Martin will end up in the OF while Groshans/Martinez will take over for Biggio/Semien.

 

Does anyone know how Martin looked at CF today?

Edited March 2, 2021 by Jays24

[Ex Player]

Todays boxscore

 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/phillies-vs-blue-jays/2021/03/02/641784#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=641784

[Orgfiller]

Looks like Groshans, Martin and Martinez will be on the cusp of breaking through with the team by 2022. Of course we'll see how the minor league season goes before getting too far head of ourselves but I'm really curious who will survive and remain with the team. There wont be enough playing time available for all of them.

 

Its such a great problem to have, one that I don't think we've ever had in my lifetime. My guess is that Martin will end up in the OF while Groshans/Martinez will take over for Biggio/Semien.

 

Does anyone know how Martin looked at CF today?

 

Lol no.

 

These guys aren't close at all to each other in terms of ETA to the majors. Martin will hopefully be MLB ready by end of 2021. Groshans will hopefully have reached AA and will begin there next year with an outside chance of deserving a look in September 2022. Orelvis Martinez will possibly have reached A+, mayyyybe he'll be really advanced and catch up to Groshans. It pretty much goes:

 

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Player:[/td]

[td]ETA[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Austin Martin[/td]

[td]End of 2021/Early 2022[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Jordan Groshans[/td]

[td]2023[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Orelvis Martinez[/td]

[td]Late 2023/2024[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

Edited March 2, 2021 by Orgfiller

[Brownie19]

Orelvis Martinez is 19 years old and has played 40 games in rookie ball.

[saskjayfan]

Matz is gonna end up having a better year than Walker and then I’m gonna laugh at the Mets.

 

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Hopefully Matz can be this year's Dylan Bundy. I'm not banking on it just yet though..lol.

[z3r0s]

I also thing anticipating Martin will be ready this year is setting yourself up for disappointment

[saskjayfan]

I also thing anticipating Martin will be ready this year is setting yourself up for disappointment

 

He's a 3 year college player just like Bregman. He should have been the 2nd overall pick just like Bregman, but the Orioles are dummies. Bregman played 66 games in his rookie year in the minors and then the next year he killed it at AA and AAA and was up brought up and played 49 games at the MLB level. Martin had to play his 60 games at the alternate site so he got less reps but played at a higher level of competition. If he kills it at AA and AAA it's not unrealistic that he could hit the majors this year. He's the same age as Vlad.

[Olerud363]

Lol no.

 

These guys aren't close at all to each other in terms of ETA to the majors. Martin will hopefully be MLB ready by end of 2021. Groshans will hopefully have reached AA and will begin there next year with an outside chance of deserving a look in September 2022. Orelvis Martinez will possibly have reached A+, mayyyybe he'll be really advanced and catch up to Groshans. It pretty much goes:

 

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Player:[/td]

[td]ETA[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Austin Martin[/td]

[td]End of 2021/Early 2022[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Jordan Groshans[/td]

[td]2023[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Orelvis Martinez[/td]

[td]Late 2023/2024[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

The missing season isn't going to delay an uber-prospect. Uber-prospects are often ready at 20, if Orelvis is really that good he could be on the radar later this year. Note: I am not saying he is that good, just that if he is, he won't be delayed.

 

2020 is a thing... it happened, just because we don't know what happened, doesn't mean there will be delays...

 

Maybe Orelvis hit ".330" at the alternative site last year... maybe he hit .220... we don't know. That is different than it not happening, there was training at the alternative site, and judging by how ready Kirk looked the experience at the alternative site did something....

[Olerud363]

The missing season isn't going to delay an uber-prospect. Uber-prospects are often ready at 20, if Orelvis is really that good he could be on the radar later this year. Note: I am not saying he is that good, just that if he is, he won't be delayed.

 

2020 is a thing... it happened, just because we don't know what happened, doesn't mean there will be delays...

 

Maybe Orelvis hit ".330" at the alternative site last year... maybe he hit .220... we don't know. That is different than it not happening, there was training at the alternative site, and judging by how ready Kirk looked the experience at the alternative site did something....

 

Orelvis Martinez Progression

 

2021 -- Vancouver -- .320 20 80

2022 -- Dunnedin -- .344 44 120

2023 -- New Hampshire .405 39 110

2024 -- Buffalo .365 31 102

 

Called up September 2024 -- Sportsnet -- after years of legendary minor league seasons, Blue Jays call up Orelvis Martinez. Martinez unfortunately was a victim of the missing 2020 minor league season. It ended up costing him 3 years of his career. As Mark Shapiro explains, without the data from 2020, the Blue Jays had no choice but to slowly move Martiniez one level a year. Even as inferior prospects moved up quickly.

[Olerud363]

Point is these guys will decide the timeline with their performance, the missing minor league season won't have much of an impact... if one of them pulls a Juan Soto they might be here in May (if an injury)... if one hits .240 for a few years it might take until 2026.

[Orgfiller]

The missing season isn't going to delay an uber-prospect. Uber-prospects are often ready at 20, if Orelvis is really that good he could be on the radar later this year. Note: I am not saying he is that good, just that if he is, he won't be delayed.

 

2020 is a thing... it happened, just because we don't know what happened, doesn't mean there will be delays...

 

Maybe Orelvis hit ".330" at the alternative site last year... maybe he hit .220... we don't know. That is different than it not happening, there was training at the alternative site, and judging by how ready Kirk looked the experience at the alternative site did something....

 

Who said anything about 2020 affecting their timeline (it probably did though tbh)? Even under normal circumstances Martin was finishing at best in AA, Groshans would've gotten no further than A+ and Martinez would've likely not even touched A+ unless he was extremely advanced. Those ETAs are the reasonable projections. Groshans hasn't played actual competitive live games since early 2019. Martinez just turned 19 and hasn't been touted as a Tatis/Vlad/Acuña/Soto level prospect that we can expect him to shoot through the minor leagues. Even a 2023 debut puts him as a 21 year old rookie like Bo, a very good prospect, was.

 

Kirk had a long sample and success at A+, so realistically he was starting 2020 in AA with a shot at making the bigs near the end of the season if he had a strong showing there, which is exactly what happened except with his success coming at the alt site.

[Jimcanuck]

Man, all this chatter about prospects coming up based on a couple of spring training games?

[BlueRocky]

Definitely pull the hand brakes on Orelvis Martinez, it's way too soon. He hasn't had a single AB in full season and we're discussing a 2022 MLB debut.

 

I think Groshans need a fair bit of time as well. I would not be surprised if he struggled a bit if they aggressively place him straight to double-A instead of high-A, he's barely played in Lansing due to the foot injury.

Guys like Vlad & Bichette that absolutely demolish at 20 years old are anomalies and should not be the standard of measurement.

 

The only bat I see with a chance to have MLB impact in 2022 is Austin Martin as of right now (more than just a brief sept call-up).

[Brownie19]

BR - we need you to post more. I miss all your prospect knowledge.

[Spanky99]

Back to back Ks for Matz as someone with the improbable name of "Odubel Herrera" goes down swinging.

 

I thought they moved on from him after the domestic abuse, guess not.

[Ray]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Hopefully Matz can be this year's Dylan Bundy. I'm not banking on it just yet though..lol.

 

It's not that much of a stretch at all to say he might be better than Taijuan Walker. He's projected for more WAR than Walker according to Steamer (albeit it's kind of a wash).

 

In 2020, Matz's K-rate was up, velo was up, he had no significant change in movement profile, and had a 4.15 xFIP in 2020 (better than Walker). He's almost a sure thing to bounce back to some extent unless you think he really is a 38% HR/FB guy. I think they're hoping he can repeat his 2019 in aggregate, which'll be more than enough to keep us in games with the offense and bullpen. Anything more would be gravy.

[Olerud363]

Definitely pull the hand brakes on Orelvis Martinez, it's way too soon. He hasn't had a single AB in full season and we're discussing a 2022 MLB debut.

 

I think Groshans need a fair bit of time as well. I would not be surprised if he struggled a bit if they aggressively place him straight to double-A instead of high-A, he's barely played in Lansing due to the foot injury.

Guys like Vlad & Bichette that absolutely demolish at 20 years old are anomalies and should not be the standard of measurement.

 

The only bat I see with a chance to have MLB impact in 2022 is Austin Martin as of right now (more than just a brief sept call-up).

 

Vlad is an anomaly but Bichette is completely different. We are talking about a guy who hit .400 in aa at 19, vs a guy who hit .280 in aa at 20.

 

And weirdly it's the latter guy who is more successful so far, which shows it is hard to predict anything.

 

Reality is guys get called up at weird times and kind of force the issue themselves. I don't know what will happen with these guys, but the chances that one of them forces the issue and is up way before we expected (like Kirk) are just as high as the chance they proceed at a routine boring pace, and just as high as the chance that they get stuck and are a disappointment.

[gruber92]

Tonight's game doesn't appear to be televised on the YES network. I guess possibly no stream either?

[Stangstag]

Orelvis Martinez Progression

 

2021 -- Vancouver -- .320 20 80

2022 -- Dunnedin -- .344 44 120

2023 -- New Hampshire .405 39 110

2024 -- Buffalo .365 31 102

 

Called up September 2024 -- Sportsnet -- after years of legendary minor league seasons, Blue Jays call up Orelvis Martinez. Martinez unfortunately was a victim of the missing 2020 minor league season. It ended up costing him 3 years of his career. As Mark Shapiro explains, without the data from 2020, the Blue Jays had no choice but to slowly move Martiniez one level a year. Even as inferior prospects moved up quickly.

 

Ahh, so he’s going to be demoted to Dunedin in 2022, and then skip a level and start at AA the next year? Interesting

[Stangstag]

Tonight's game doesn't appear to be televised on the YES network. I guess possibly no stream either?

 

https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/spring-training

 

No stream today

[Brownie19]

https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/spring-training

 

No stream today

 

That blows - SWR and Manoah are both pitching I think.

[Olerud363]

Definitely pull the hand brakes on Orelvis Martinez, it's way too soon. He hasn't had a single AB in full season and we're discussing a 2022 MLB debut.

 

Kirk went from short season in 2018 to MLB in 2020... he only had 91 games at full season. None above a+.

 

Out of the pool of guys who reached Martinez's stage, that is 17 years old already in short season what is the average age of their MLB debut? What is average time from short season to MLB for top 100 prospects?

 

I have to think the expectation given past numbers is that Orelvis debuts in 2022.

 

Of course it is rare for 20 year olds to debut in MLB. I think the last two the Jays had were Guerrero and Snider. Who are the last two 17 year olds they had doing well in short season in U.S.? (plenty of guys do well at 17 in DSL, but that's not as advanced).

[Brownie19]

anyone watch Hunter Greene last night?

 

https://www.mlb.com/video/hunter-greene-reaches-100mph

 

101, 102, 103 MPH to start the game. He got lit up, but good to see him back on the mound.

 

 

 

I don't know who approved both teams wearing red jerseys, but they have done it a few days in a row now and it looks ridiculous.