General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[Laika]

If your FO blames pen woes on Merryweather, Yates and Borucki being injured you deserve to blow a lot of games late.

 

Phelps - catastrophic injury

Yates - catastrophic injury

Merryweather - chronic injuries, nearly a lost season

Pearson - chronic injuries, nearly a lost season

Borucki - injuries / performance, non-factor

Chatwood - performance / sticky stuff decline

Dolis - performance decline

Castro - semi-serious injury for months

Romano - mild arm injury earlier

Mayza - mild arm injury earlier

Stripling - two stints on the IL

[Dick_Pole]

The Jays have two of the top three pitchers in pitching wins behind Cole and two others tied for fourth place with 12 (or 1.5 if you adjust for the mid-season acquisition). I know people on this board hate pitcher wins and they don't predict anything. But what they do tell us is that the Jays have been a beacon of health, luck and consistency in their starting rotation. Reminds me a lot of the 2016 season. Three of the top four position players have played essentially every day with Hernandez missing a couple of weeks. Now compare that to the Yankees and get back to me regarding injury luck this year.

[glory]

A lot more went right for the Jays than wrong. A lot more. Like, a ridiculous amount more. When 2 of your FA signings turn out to be a MVP and Cy Young candidate respectively, that's good luck. When your rotation stays healthy pretty much all season, that's good luck. No important player other than Springer missed time. The bullpen injuries involved Yates (signed him knowing he was hurt), Phelps (injury history), Chatwood (sucked after sticky stuff crackdown), Merryweather (lives on the IL), Borucki (not quite Merryweather but extensive injury history), etc, etc.

 

This is why prior to this September run this was looking like such a disappointing season. So much went right that it would be a shame if they didn't at least make the WC game. Thankfully they've gone on a tear since then and hopefully they end up making the WC game, but I don't think it's fair to even compare what went wrong versus what went right. Apples and oranges.

[Laika]

A lot more went right for the Jays than wrong. A lot more. Like, a ridiculous amount more. When 2 of your FA signings turn out to be a MVP and Cy Young candidate respectively, that's good luck. When your rotation stays healthy pretty much all season, that's good luck. No important player other than Springer missed time. The bullpen injuries involved Yates (signed him knowing he was hurt), Phelps (injury history), Chatwood (sucked after sticky stuff crackdown), Merryweather (lives on the IL), Borucki (not quite Merryweather but extensive injury history), etc, etc.

 

This is why prior to this September run this was looking like such a disappointing season. So much went right that it would be a shame if they didn't at least make the WC game. Thankfully they've gone on a tear since then and hopefully they end up making the WC game, but I don't think it's fair to even compare what went wrong versus what went right. Apples and oranges.

 

indeed. I mean the Springer injury stuff has been pretty bad but that's one guy and he has been able to contribute

[max silver]

If your FO blames pen woes on Merryweather, Yates and Borucki being injured you deserve to blow a lot of games late.

 

Are you arguing that because players have sustained injuries in previous seasons that this somehow means their injuries had no effect on this season? I would argue quite the opposite, given how the bullpen injuries in particular led to a parade of relievers such as Edwards Jr., Beasley, Thornton, Barnes, etc. pitching innings in their place. Even the expected depth guys ended up getting hurt such as AJ Cole and Patrick Murphy ended up getting hurt and missing significant time. The presence of the roster chum and missing presence of the planned relievers heading into the season played no small part in the underperformance of the club for much of the season.

[max silver]

A lot more went right for the Jays than wrong. A lot more. Like, a ridiculous amount more. When 2 of your FA signings turn out to be a MVP and Cy Young candidate respectively, that's good luck. When your rotation stays healthy pretty much all season, that's good luck. No important player other than Springer missed time. The bullpen injuries involved Yates (signed him knowing he was hurt), Phelps (injury history), Chatwood (sucked after sticky stuff crackdown), Merryweather (lives on the IL), Borucki (not quite Merryweather but extensive injury history), etc, etc.

 

This is why prior to this September run this was looking like such a disappointing season. So much went right that it would be a shame if they didn't at least make the WC game. Thankfully they've gone on a tear since then and hopefully they end up making the WC game, but I don't think it's fair to even compare what went wrong versus what went right. Apples and oranges.

 

There is plenty that went wrong, so much so that it took a miraculous September run for the club to have any shot at a playoff spot. For much of the season injuries and underperformance caused serious problems. Heading into the season this looked to be one of the most talented and complete Jays rosters in recent memory, but despite that this club floundered through much of the season.

 

You can basically look at this season as two separate parts, there are the first 5 months of the season where the team was only a few games above the .500 mark for the most part, and September where they caught fire and look like the best team in baseball. Prior to the trade deadline in particular the club had a ton of issues that led to a lot of lost games.

 

For the longest period of time they received basically nothing out of the third base position. People seem to want to argue that Biggio being hurt most of the season is insignificant, but heading into 2021 he had almost been a 4 win player in his first full season's worth of games. Receiving a sub replacement performance out of a player like this is not a small deal. Espinal ended up stepping up for a period, but then he ended up getting hurt as well. Panik was played by the manager almost every day despite being sub replacement.

 

Biggio's lost season and Tellez's lack of production ended leading to the team having no good left handed options in the lineup. The club has a lot of very good/elite right handed hitters, but a little more balance in the lineup would have likely helped the team receive a little more offence against the parade of righty relievers that the opposition has been able to shut down the Jays late in games for most of the season.

 

For the start of the season the club received very little out of the catcher's position, and when Kirk came up and started playing well he ended up injured and missed a good chunk of time as well. Jansen missed a bunch of time on the injured list also, although that may actually end up being a blessing in disguise as he may have turned things around a bit during his AAA stint.

 

For the first two months of the season Gurriel looked like one of baseball's worst players, and was still at replacement level at the start of August. It has taken a remarkable hot streak for him to start looking like a player who was actually worth rostering.

 

The rotation has also had it's share of issues. Roark was given a roster spot and ended up being cut from the roster. Pearson ended up with a chronic injury and missed another year of development necessitating trading for Berrios. Ryu has looked to hit the decline phase of his career in a serious way, Stripling started the season looking completely lost, finally found it but then ended up missing time due to injury. The rotation has ultimately ended up as somewhat of a surprise strength as the season went on but this wasn't the case early on in the season in particular, when the club received terrible performances from the likes of Roark, Zeuch and Kay.

 

It's impossible to gloss over how much of an issue the bullpen was in the first half of the season prior to the additions of Cimber and Richards. If the team ultimately ends up missing the playoffs this is going to be the major reason given how many leads were coughed up earlier in the season.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I just hope the Jays don't go into next season with the same questin marks around the bullpen and having to rely on guys with extensive injury history's to be healthy in order for it to be a strong bullpen.

 

Romano

Mayza

Cimber

Richards

Merryweather

 

That's a nice foundation for a bullpen but they need to bring in 3 or 4 more decent BP arms to round that out. A bad idea would be to sign a couple of Yates equivalent type relievers (guys with about a 10% chance of staying healthy) and then hope to fill the rest out with waiver pick ups or from within.

 

If guys like Castro, Borucki, Baker, Snead, Saucedo, Thornton etc end up being good then it's a bonus, but you shouldn't be going into next season relying on those guys to carry water in order for the bullpen to be any good.

[Laika]

lots of words there

[max silver]

Hey, they finally moved Gurriel up to the #6 spot. Of course the 7-9 hitters today are rough.

 

Even Charlie would have a hard time hitting any of McGuire, Lamb or Dyson ahead of Gurriel.

[glory]

The biggest thing that went wrong this season was unrelated to the roster or to Buntoyo. It was the fact that the team spent four months away from Toronto. Can we quantify how many wins that cost them over the season? No clue, but I'm sure that impacted them negatively to some degree. A spring training facility, a minor league facility, and constantly having the sparse crowds cheer the other teams isn't the ideal situation. So it's probably more valid to blame the Canadian government for the team's April-August performance rather it is to point to bad luck or injuries (compare the Jays injuries to other teams). In the grand scheme of things, the latter was way more on the Jays side. Hell, when both of their catchers got hurt, Reese f'n McGuire came in and BABIP'd his way into a solid season. Biggio got hurt, and suddenly Espinal was a 1.5 WAR player over 200 PA and even Valera has looked competent recently. I just don't see how the bad even comes close to the good.

[intentional wok]

I am going to say that Dyson is out there over Dickerson because they're (unsurprisingly) expecting a lot of hard contact by the Rays.

[Dick_Pole]

I feel like those defending the "a lot went wrong stance" forgot about 2017 or 2013 or 2014. Remember when this team was routinely giving sub-replacement level players 2,000 plate appearances a year because of injuries and lack of depth? Those were fun times. The 2021 Jays BP blew a lot of games because they were leading a lot of games this year. Hard to remember a s***** bullpen performance when a game you're down 5-1 after six innings ends with a 10-1 final score.

[TwistedLogic]

Country Joe with his best Ron Kulpa impression.

 

[BCZ]

So are we going with MLB conspiracy against the Canadian team then?

[JFD]

So are we going with MLB conspiracy against the Canadian team then?

 

It's about the Yankees not Canada or Tampa

[BCZ]

It's about the Yankees not Canada or Tampa

 

Coo coo coo coo cool

[BigCecil]

Are you arguing that because players have sustained injuries in previous seasons that this somehow means their injuries had no effect on this season? I would argue quite the opposite, given how the bullpen injuries in particular led to a parade of relievers such as Edwards Jr., Beasley, Thornton, Barnes, etc. pitching innings in their place. Even the expected depth guys ended up getting hurt such as AJ Cole and Patrick Murphy ended up getting hurt and missing significant time. The presence of the roster chum and missing presence of the planned relievers heading into the season played no small part in the underperformance of the club for much of the season.

 

I dont want to argue this anymore...so much more went right for us than wrong. Seasons from Ray, Simean, Matz and Manoah blew expectations away. Most of our key offensive pieces were healthy all year. So rare. Save Springer which hurt. We didn't have an Acuna Jr type incident.

 

I could cut and paste the 2021 IL lists of TB, BoSox and NYY or mention Glasnow, Sale, Severino, Voit, Franco etc etc etc.

 

The point is we had some injuries yes, but so did the competition. Some of our injury issues, given history, were fairly predictable. (Yates, Merryweather, Borucki) What went right for us was much more impactful, to the positive. And we need to capitalize.

[JFD]

Coo coo coo coo cool

 

The Yankees can't win with a 200+ mil payroll so they need help from the league

[Terminator]

So even if the Yanks win tonight we will still be tied with them in the loss column and our remaining schedule is more favorable.

 

Jays: 4 @ the Twins, 3 vs Yanks, and 3 vs the Orioles at home

Yanks: 3 @ Red Sox, 3 @ Jays, 3 vs the Rays at home

 

The Red Sox also have an easy schedule (Yanks, Orioles & Nats) and will be 2 games up on us should they win tonight. We might want to cheer for a Red Sox sweep (sorry Grant!) when they play the Yankees.

 

Today's game sucks but eeking out the W last night was huge. We are still in a good position to make the WC.

[BCZ]

The Yankees can't win with a 200+ mil payroll so they need help from the league

 

They can even get fans to attend their games but still - gotta have NY in the playoffs else the entire season was a sham!

[Spanky99]

lots of words there

 

lol

[Governator]

Even if we don't make the WC, I'm just happy we're playing meaningful baseball in the last two weeks of the season and our team has a lot to look forward to and takeaway from this year. By all accounts, this has been a successful season I think.

[Spanky99]

Even if we don't make the WC, I'm just happy we're playing meaningful baseball in the last two weeks of the season and our team has a lot to look forward to and takeaway from this year. By all accounts, this has been a successful season I think.

 

I'd say so, we've beat our projections for the season and in a playoff hunt, no doubt.

[TheHurl]

It's about the Yankees not Canada or Tampa

 

Even the Astros being in the WS is okay for MLB as it gives baseball someone to hate. The worst scenario for MLB is the Jays in the WS. The second worst is Rays. But baseball contracts are signed through 2028 anyway so really this isn't the year to care.

[Krylian]

Even if we don't make the WC, I'm just happy we're playing meaningful baseball in the last two weeks of the season and our team has a lot to look forward to and takeaway from this year. By all accounts, this has been a successful season I think.

 

If they miss the post season do you management regrets their philosophy on holding back a bit in the off-season...the whole 'we don't want to add too much salary too fast' philosophy? A couple of extra impactful BP arms may have made all the difference.

[Jimcanuck]

If they miss the post season do you management regrets their philosophy on holding back a bit in the off-season...the whole 'we don't want to add too much salary too fast' philosophy? A couple of extra impactful BP arms may have made all the difference.

 

Hindsight is 20/20, they had no idea how the season would play out

 

FO is working on a long window of contention vs. a short one. It's proper.

[Dick_Pole]

So even if the Yanks win tonight we will still be tied with them in the loss column and our remaining schedule is more favorable.

 

Jays: 4 @ the Twins, 3 vs Yanks, and 3 vs the Orioles at home

Yanks: 3 @ Red Sox, 3 @ Jays, 3 vs the Rays at home

 

The Red Sox also have an easy schedule (Yanks, Orioles & Nats) and will be 2 games up on us should they win tonight. We might want to cheer for a Red Sox sweep (sorry Grant!) when they play the Yankees.

 

Today's game sucks but eeking out the W last night was huge. We are still in a good position to make the WC.

 

The added benefit of totally cucking out on the Red Sox right now is that they keep within earshot of Tampa, which incentivizes Tampa to take the final Yankees series seriously.

[intentional wok]

Even if we don't make the WC, I'm just happy we're playing meaningful baseball in the last two weeks of the season and our team has a lot to look forward to and takeaway from this year. By all accounts, this has been a successful season I think.

 

Somewhat agree and disagree. I think this season actually could have gone a lot better. The results don't really stack up to how much the expectations were exceeded. Coming into the year light on pitching is probably why we're seeing a heart-pounding race rather than the team in a more advantageous position.

 

That said, this year is just the tip of the iceberg. The future looks extremely bright. This might even be my favourite group ever put together, or at least in the last 25 years.

[Governator]

If they miss the post season do you management regrets their philosophy on holding back a bit in the off-season...the whole 'we don't want to add too much salary too fast' philosophy? A couple of extra impactful BP arms may have made all the difference.

 

I guess I'm on the side of hating to invest a lot in BP arms, they can be so damn volatile. I think we got lucky by not having any major injuries that could have completely derailed this season, Springer aside.

[thatoneguy]

I guess I'm on the side of hating to invest a lot in BP arms, they can be so damn volatile. I think we got lucky by not having any major injuries that could have completely derailed this season, Springer aside.

 

I mean part of it was the sticky stuff crackdown that was essentially unpredictable from the beginning of the season.