Around Baseball 2021

[Laika]

I started watching baseball as a kid in the late 80's. Ozzie Smith was a legend. The couple games a year you could watch him on CBS on Saturday afternoons you definitely would tune in. One of the few players who you'd really want a baseball card from. I stopped caring much about card collecting years ago but I can't imagine an Andruw Jones card would sell for much more than common cards other than his rookie.

 

So I see two issues working against Jones here, just from my perspective. First, he's just another good ball player I saw during my adult years as opposed to Ozzie Smith who has legendary status - something that a lot of people in the 35-45 range probably feel. Second, Smith came in an era where there wasn't a lot of good ball players. Like people have mentioned Jones got lost in the shuffle among all the high offensive stats. He also hasn't been SUCH a standout defensive player where defense is basically his brand name. If he had done some unnecessary Simone Biles s*** on the field, he'd probably rank a lot higher in a lot of people's minds.

 

He was a standout defensive player though.

 

I guess your point is that he was a smooth defender rather than a flashy guy doing Kevin Pillar suicide catches every other day.

[John_Havok]

He was a standout defensive player though.

 

I guess your point is that he was a smooth defender rather than a flashy guy doing Kevin Pillar suicide catches every other day.

 

Could be. But that's why the eye test is horribly flawed. When Jones was in his prime 11 year run, his WORST defensive year was better than Pillar's best and most years he was significantly better than Pillar's best... like twice as many runs saved kind of thing.

 

I really think Jones gets severely and unfairly underrated by baseball as a whole.

[Jimcanuck]

There's the eye test (did Jones do backflips?) and then there's the general antipathy and suspicion of saber stats by some voters, particularly the defensive stats.

 

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of the Best.

 

Gonna be tough for Jones to get in, IMO.

[BTS]

All this talk about Andruw Jones and no mention of Jim Edmonds.

[John_Havok]

All this talk about Andruw Jones and no mention of Jim Edmonds.

 

Jones was a far superior defender to Edmonds... it's a fairly massive gap in defensive value.

[Laika]

There's the eye test (did Jones do backflips?) and then there's the general antipathy and suspicion of saber stats by some voters, particularly the defensive stats.

 

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of the Best.

 

Gonna be tough for Jones to get in, IMO.

 

Yeah this is probably the bulk of it.

 

Jones was highly regarded by the eye test - everyone knows he was elite, people in context knew he was awesome out there. But people don't necessarily accept the run values that the defensive metrics give him, as gospel.

 

I don't know if this is true (would have to run a simple regression) but I feel like, historically, outside of a small amount of shortstops and maybe a couple of catchers, not a lot of players get into the Hall with the bulk of their case built on defense.

 

A good amount of players in there are elite hitters.

A good amount of players in there are great hitters + good defenders.

Comparatively less are perhaps great defenders + just good hitters.

 

Jones has a 111 career wRC+. That's just good. That's it.

 

He has more than twice as many lw runs from defense in his career. 121.6 hitting and 276.4 from defense.

It would be interesting to see how this compares to, say, hall of fame outfielders. The ratio.

[L54]

[John_Havok]

I don't know if this is true (would have to run a simple regression) but I feel like, historically, outside of a small amount of shortstops and maybe a couple of catchers, not a lot of players got into the Hall with the bulk of their case built on defense.

 

Ozzie.... i don't even know if any catchers in there are there for defense, though I'm sure Molina will be eventually.

 

Maybe Greg Maddux as a pitcher, He won like 18 gold gloves. Pure defensive induction there right?

[Jays24]

 

I f***ing love this guy. I really wish we were able to contend earlier so he could have had more chances in the playoff spotlight.

[Brownie19]

Yeah this is probably the bulk of it.

 

Jones was highly regarded by the eye test - everyone knows he was elite, people in context knew he was awesome out there. But people don't necessarily accept the run values that the defensive metrics give him, as gospel.

 

I don't know if this is true (would have to run a simple regression) but I feel like, historically, outside of a small amount of shortstops and maybe a couple of catchers, not a lot of players get into the Hall with the bulk of their case built on defense.

 

A good amount of players in there are elite hitters.

A good amount of players in there are great hitters + good defenders.

Comparatively less are perhaps great defenders + just good hitters.

 

Jones has a 111 career wRC+. That's just good. That's it.

 

He has more than twice as many lw runs from defense in his career. 121.6 hitting and 276.4 from defense.

It would be interesting to see how this compares to, say, hall of fame outfielders. The ratio.

 

That makes you wonder even more why Jim Edmonds didn't get more votes. He was firmly in the "a good amount of players in there are great hitters + good defenders" category.

[John_Havok]

That makes you wonder even more why Jim Edmonds didn't get more votes. He was firmly in the "a good amount of players in there are great hitters + good defenders" category.

 

You're not wrong. if I was looking at HOF resumes I would probably think the voters would put in Edmonds ahead of Jones, yet Edmonds was gone in his first year with just 2.5% of the ballot.

[The_DH]

You're not wrong. if I was looking at HOF resumes I would probably think the voters would put in Edmonds ahead of Jones, yet Edmonds was gone in his first year with just 2.5% of the ballot.

 

Why look at HOF resumes? It's about as valuable as talking all star game stats

[John_Havok]

Why look at HOF resumes? It's about as valuable as talking all star game stats

 

It's a figure of speech. When voting on who gets into the the Hall of Fame, I'm pretty confident they actually look at stats and stuff. They totally screw up the interpretation of those stats a lot, but they still look at them.

[Laika]

You're not wrong. if I was looking at HOF resumes I would probably think the voters would put in Edmonds ahead of Jones, yet Edmonds was gone in his first year with just 2.5% of the ballot.

 

Yeah I dunno. I think it's a hardware thing with Edmonds? Never an MVP or even a runner up, only an all star four times.

 

Edmonds was probably always overshadowed by someone, in some way. Never would have been the best defensive centre fielder active in a given year. Perhaps only arguably the best centre fielder active for a season or two. Didn't get 2000 hits. Didn't get 400 homers. Injuries really hurt him in terms of counting stats and career WAR.

 

I think people also didn't "like" Edmonds. Look at this quote:

 

“If you don't look at him between pitches, he plays hard and has great instincts," said Angels general manager Bill Bavasi in 1996. "I told all my scouts not to watch him between pitches, because that body language will only frustrate you."

[John_Havok]

Yeah I dunno. I think it's a hardware thing with Edmonds? Never an MVP or even a runner up, only an all star four times.

 

Edmonds was probably always overshadowed by someone, in some way. Never would have been the best defensive centre fielder active in a given year. Perhaps only arguably the best centre fielder active for a season or two. Didn't get 2000 hits. Didn't get 400 homers. Injuries really hurt him in terms of counting stats and career WAR.

 

I think people also didn't "like" Edmonds. Look at this quote:

 

“If you don't look at him between pitches, he plays hard and has great instincts," said Angels general manager Bill Bavasi in 1996. "I told all my scouts not to watch him between pitches, because that body language will only frustrate you."

 

Same problem with others of that era. Overshadowed by the Bonds, Ramirez, Sosa, McGwires.... etc. The entire steroid era is so interesting in what it does to the Hall of Fame. Guys like Edmonds who objectively had better careers than many hall of famers just wont get in.

[Brownie19]

Yeah I dunno. I think it's a hardware thing with Edmonds? Never an MVP or even a runner up, only an all star four times.

 

Edmonds was probably always overshadowed by someone, in some way. Never would have been the best defensive centre fielder active in a given year. Perhaps only arguably the best centre fielder active for a season or two. Didn't get 2000 hits. Didn't get 400 homers. Injuries really hurt him in terms of counting stats and career WAR.

 

He kind of falls into the Mike Mussina category that way. Lance Berkman may also.

 

It's pretty crazy to me that Lance Berkman is statistically the 43rd best hitter of all time, who's career wRC+ is ahead of Miggy and Pujols.

[John_Havok]

He kind of falls into the Mike Mussina category that way. Lance Berkman may also.

 

It's pretty crazy to me that Lance Berkman is statistically the 43rd best hitter of all time, who's career wRC+ is ahead of Miggy and Pujols.

 

Pujols is an interesting case. Clearly a HOF hitter, but when you look at the halves of his career theyre so different it's incredible.

 

Age 21-31, OPS+ of 170 , just murdered baseballs. 445 HR, avg OPS was 1.037

Then 32-41, OPS+ of 108, 234 HR, avg OPS of .758

 

The cliff is real.

 

The Angels got 1 good year out of his 10 year deal. Damn

[Deadpool]

Not much going on, otherwise I wouldn't bother posting this, but

[BTS]

Not much going on, otherwise I wouldn't bother posting this, but

 

One of the saddest injury-derailed careers in recent memory. He was basically finished at 29 because he couldn't stay on the field.

[John_Havok]

One of the saddest injury-derailed careers in recent memory. He was basically finished at 29 because he couldn't stay on the field.

 

We'd probably be having the HOF conversation about him right now, right alongside Jones, Rolen and Edmonds. Chavez was in that same mold.

[Spanky__99]

Y'all high, Jones and Rolen should be in the HOF, they had enough bat to go along with elite D. The HOF voters should all DIAFF!!!

[connorp]

Y'all high, Jones and Rolen should be in the HOF, they had enough bat to go along with elite D. The HOF voters should all DIAFF!!!

 

There’s strong odds saying you’re the one that’s high rn

[John_Havok]

 

Feels like if there wasn't a stupid 10 name limit, Sosa would also be on there.

[Deadpool]

 

Feels like if there wasn't a stupid 10 name limit, Sosa would also be on there.

 

I could be convinced on some of the 'roid guys deserving to be in there, the ones that likely make it w/o juicing, but I think Sosa isn't even in the neighbourhood of consideration for the HOF if it wasn't for the chemical assistance.

 

Though, I will admit to being one of those people who is harsher on the 'roid guys than most around here w/r/t their HOF pedigree.

[AdamGreenwood]

5 known steroid users on one ballot

[Spanky__99]

There’s strong odds saying you’re the one that’s high rn

 

So you think those two shouldn't be in the HOF?

[John_Havok]

I could be convinced on some of the 'roid guys deserving to be in there, the ones that likely make it w/o juicing, but I think Sosa isn't even in the neighbourhood of consideration for the HOF if it wasn't for the chemical assistance.

 

Though, I will admit to being one of those people who is harsher on the 'roid guys than most around here w/r/t their HOF pedigree.

 

Its hard to say, he was still hitting 30 HRs a year prior to the breakout, but what he wasn't doing... was pretty much anything else with the bat. He was a 112 wrc+ from 1993-1997 while averaging 34 HR per year. He didn't take walks or even pile up hits, he was a pretty empty 35 HR hitter. Interestingly enough though he was a pretty plus defender in those years and worth more runs on Defense than offense.

 

Then the roid years took over, his offense skyrocketed while his D plummeted to average or well-below average.

[John_Havok]

holy hell, i knew Manny was garbo on defense... but -277 runs is f***ing unreal. He's Andruw Jones defensive opposite.

[Spanky__99]

I liked that ballot save for Sosa.

 

Also, Bonds, Clemens and Schilling not making it in on their last ballot would be criminal, especially the two former guys. They've paid their price, man.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Spanky99

[glory]

According to that guy's Excel sheet, Bonds and Clemens are both at 76.9% with over 13% of the ballots known. I don't like their chances of being at 75% when all votes are tabulated, but I hope they are. A HOF class of Ortiz and Rolen would still be solid though, if not completely hypocritical for Ortiz, but nothing we weren't expecting.