Around Baseball 2021

[Jays24]

It kinda is, at least for one who is 32 with a limited track record of excellence.

 

Yeah. They're not comparable at all. Roark is also making less than half the total value of Hendricks contract.

 

Roark basically has to eat up 150 innings on a league average basis to be worth it.

 

Hendriks has to produce like he did the last 1 and 1/3rd to be worth it (which he may, just the track record of free relievers actually doing that isn't great).

 

My whole point was that if you think he got overpaid, it's for one extra year. You will be able to nitpick that for all major free agents who get signed. That is the premium you have to pay to get them typically.

 

We did that for Ryu last year and we did that for Martin back in 2015. If we sign another major free agent this year, I bet people will nitpick the one extra year too.

[Abomination]

He's had a sub 3 FIP 5 of the last 7 years. League average FIP is 4.5. His other 2 years were 3.22 and 4.33. Even his one bad year wasn't hot garbage. The last 2 years he's had a FIP 1.14 and 1.87. 3 years and 30 was never going to get it done for Hendriks..lol

 

Please don't use FIP, especially for a pitcher pitching in Oakland. Regardless, it's 2 of the last 4 years. He's being paid as an elite closer without the kind of track record you'd like to see in order to support it. While I'd really like to see us address the pen, I'm glad we aren't the ones paying him that.

[Ray]

My whole point was that if you think he got overpaid, it's for one extra year. You will be able to nitpick that for all major free agents who get signed. That is the premium you have to pay to get them typically.

 

We did that for Ryu and we did that for Martin back in 2015. If we sign another major free agent this year, I bet people will nitpick the one extra year too.

 

Well first, there is a clear difference between paying a premium for everyday position players/starting pitchers & relievers.

 

Second, for the White Sox, it kind of makes sense to overpay for a reliever because they're trying to make a deep playoff run and the rest of their team is looking relatively complete. Let's try spending our money on actual holes such as CF, INF, SP instead of spending $13.5M/AAV on a high end reliever, which is one of the last pieces we really need. This front office picked up Anthony Bass from the waiver wire and Rafael Dolis from Japan just last year and always have had moderate success building at least average bullpens. It's never been a problem for them.

[G-Snarls]

My whole point was that if you think he got overpaid, it's for one extra year. You will be able to nitpick that for all major free agents who get signed. That is the premium you have to pay to get them typically.

 

We did that for Ryu last year and we did that for Martin back in 2015. If we sign another major free agent this year, I bet people will nitpick the one extra year too.

 

Also probably with Morales

[Jays24]

Also probably with Morales

 

Oh we had to rush to sign him. That move cemented my hatred for our current front office at the time lol.

[mellowgold]

Don't worry, "sources" will let us know today that we were the runners up.

[saskjayfan]

Please don't use FIP, especially for a pitcher pitching in Oakland. Regardless, it's 2 of the last 4 years. He's being paid as an elite closer without the kind of track record you'd like to see in order to support it. While I'd really like to see us address the pen, I'm glad we aren't the ones paying him that.

 

He had a swinging strike rate of 19% last year and 17% the year before in 85 innings. He's a guy that can give you more than one inning. I'm not sure how pitching in Oakland would have much of an effect on the amount of swings and misses he get. Chapman gets paid 18 mil a year in New York and he's never pitched more than 57 innings in a year for them.

 

I don't know what sort of argument you could make to say he hasn't been a top 5 reliever in the game over the past 2 years.

 

i'm fine with you saying you don't want to pay a 32 year old reliever that much money over that amount of years. Guys can fall off the rails at any time. Chicago who already got a one year rental in Lynn probably probably feel pretty good about Hendriks as their highest leverage reliever next year. How will they feel about that in year 2, 3 or 4? Time will tell.

 

I would have liked Hendriks, but given the needs of our team I wouldn't have went to those levels either. We need to get out there and overpay for a Springer, DJ Lemahieu, JT Realmuto or a starting pitcher.

[wilko]

What a strange contract. I'd like to know the details.

[Laika]

What a strange contract. I'd like to know the details.

 

It's 3/$39 and then a $15M option for year four.

 

If the Sox decline the option they buy him out for $15M, but it is paid in installments over ten years.

 

So he is guaranteed $54M but the final $15M is worth significantly less if he is washed up in 2024 and bought out.

[Brownie19]

Oh we had to rush to sign him. That move cemented my hatred for our current front office at the time lol.

 

If that's the worst move this FO ever makes - then they've done an incredible job. You seem hysteric at times.

[wilko]

It's 3/$39 and then a $15M option for year four.

 

If the Sox decline the option they buy him out for $15M, but it is paid in installments over ten years.

 

So he is guaranteed $54M but the final $15M is worth significantly less if he is washed up in 2024 and bought out.

 

Thanks. Didn't know how the final option year looked. So basically $1.5M for 10 years if they nope out.

[Brownie19]

It's a slippery slope, especially if interest is owed on the deferred money. See one Bobby Bonilla.

 

Unless there's a huge interest payment included, deferring money is a huge benefit to ownership - and it only benefits the player if they are really awful with money. $1M in 2035 is worth much less than $1M in 2020. Any player with the ability to invest should want the money as soon as possible. Compound interest is powerful.

[glory]

It’d be nice to get a premium + RP in FA but Jays will never spend that kind of money. Much better chance of finding a RP out of a dumpster that’s really good any given year vs a position player or SP.

 

Yeah I don't think this front office is ever going to allocate that much to a RP unless it was the finishing touches to a title contender. I'm sure they had legit interest in Hendriks for the pen this winter, but I doubt it was anywhere near the price he signed for. No sense in overpaying a closer now when they still need help in the rotation, infield, and CF. More likely the pen will have cheap options with guys coming off injury or down years being signed. Having the closer role open might be a nice incentive for a 'buy low' RP to sign here.

[Carlos Danger]

Unless there's a huge interest payment included, deferring money is a huge benefit to ownership - and it only benefits the player if they are really awful with money. $1M in 2035 is worth much less than $1M in 2020. Any player with the ability to invest should want the money as soon as possible. Compound interest is powerful.

 

I agree with all that. Just wondering if deferring some taxes on a lump sum might end up equaling out, with smaller recurring payments.. I really don't know..

 

I always asked myself if I won the loto (which I only play once a year for stocking stuffers), would I want the lump sum or smaller one time lump sum and annual payments.

[Abomination]

I always asked myself if I won the loto (which I only play once a year for stocking stuffers), would I want the lump sum or smaller one time lump sum and annual payments.

 

Yeah, I've kind of wondered that myself. I know the math says you're better off taking the lump sum, but that assumes that your spending habits would be the same in both cases, which seems unlikely. Regardless, the only "lottery" I play is the DFS variety, so it's a decision I'll likely never have to make.

[Laika]

I agree with all that. Just wondering if deferring some taxes on a lump sum might end up equaling out, with smaller recurring payments.. I really don't know..

 

I always asked myself if I won the loto (which I only play once a year for stocking stuffers), would I want the lump sum or smaller one time lump sum and annual payments.

 

What's the highest marginal tax bracket (federal) in the US? By the time Hendrik's career is over he'll have made like $66M including this full amount. If he has even half of that invested, $30M making only 1 point per year = $300,000 in annual income for him. In Canada anything above $220,000 is taxed at the highest level.

 

Point is that maybe all of the $15M would be taxed at the highest level regardless of whether he gets it at once or over 10 years. This might be different if Hendriks mismanages his money and the $1.5M / year is his only income, then I guess he would save a bit of tax (but the amount is probably not huge - your talking about a few points of difference on a few hundred thousand dollars). This might also change a bit if he can do annual income splitting with a spouse who doesn't make much/anything.

 

Even if there are small taxation benefits to receiving the money over time the benefits of getting it all up front would blow those savings out of the water, unless Hendriks puts it all in a WNBA team or something and takes a some big losses.

[Laika]

Yeah, I've kind of wondered that myself. I know the math says you're better off taking the lump sum, but that assumes that your spending habits would be the same in both cases, which seems unlikely. Regardless, the only "lottery" I play is the DFS variety, so it's a decision I'll likely never have to make.

 

Take the lump sum. Spend a reasonable small amount on fun stuff you could not afford, then put 85% of it in a robo-ETF (and never look at it, treat this like your estate to pass on and only access it if necessary) and 15% in bitcoin (swing for the fences!) or whatever penny stocks Dick_Pole tells you to buy.

[connorp]

Highest tax bracket is US is like 500k

[connorp]

Lottery is 625m tonight, 459 cash

 

I’d do cash and invest all in commercial real estate under an llc. Deduct the purchases and keep a lot of the tax money

 

They withhold 25% at time of paying out but later on you have to kick in the extra 12% at tax time. So I’d avoid paying that. Here’s to $2 and a dream today (and tomorrow as Powerball is high too)

[Spanky__99]

The 15M team option with a 15M buyout is something we’ve never seen before. I guess he’d have to be utterly broken for the team to prefer to punt him and pay the money instalments.

 

Wow, Hendriks got paid. That contract is far too much, though.

[Abomination]

Lottery is 625m tonight, 459 cash

 

I’d do cash and invest all in commercial real estate under an llc. Deduct the purchases and keep a lot of the tax money

 

They withhold 25% at time of paying out but later on you have to kick in the extra 12% at tax time. So I’d avoid paying that. Here’s to $2 and a dream today (and tomorrow as Powerball is high too)

 

Lottery winnings aren't actually taxable here in Canada, but if a Canadian wins a US lottery the IRS might withhold some of it (30%?). DFS seems to be more interesting here. If you are a casual player, I believe winnings are considered a windfall and don't need to be reported. If you derive a considerable, sustainable income from it, then it's taxed as regular income (as far as I know).

 

My DK winnings shouldn't need to be reported at tax time to the CRA, and weren't withheld by the IRS either after signing the form stating no US business interests or whatever.

[xposbrad]

Wow, Hendriks got paid. That contract is far too much, though.

 

Ya, not a fan of that contract. I think Brad Hand would be a better choice for us and probably cost less.

[Abomination]

Ya, not a fan of that contract. I think Brad Hand would be a better choice for us and probably cost less.

 

He'd sure as hell better cost less, considering we could have just claimed him.

[wilko]

He'd sure as hell better cost less, considering we could have just claimed him.

 

Man the Indians are cheap.

[Brownie19]

Ya, not a fan of that contract. I think Brad Hand would be a better choice for us and probably cost less.

 

Hand's velo has dipped a ton the past 2 years (although the results remain). Given everyone passed on him for 1 year $10M - I have to think there's something up.

[jaysguy44]

Trade for Jose Ramirez

 

Lol

[Spanky__99]

Trade for Jose Ramirez

 

King's ransom!

[max silver]

Hand's velo has dipped a ton the past 2 years (although the results remain). Given everyone passed on him for 1 year $10M - I have to think there's something up.

 

Hand looks to throw his slider about 50% of the time, and this pitch generates nearly 40% whiff rate even with the velocity drop. He really doesn't seem to be reliant on pure velocity to garner above average results.

[saskjayfan]

King's ransom!

 

Jose Ramirez is thinking small. May as well get Bieber too.

[Brownie19]

Hand looks to throw his slider about 50% of the time, and this pitch generates nearly 40% whiff rate even with the velocity drop. He really doesn't seem to be reliant on pure velocity to garner above average results.

 

If this were true - someone would have taken him for $10M.