Blue Jays Free Agent Thread-Who should we sign?

[Brownie19]

Groshans has not played for a season and a half. Not to mention Barreto was great too....... If he is still owed $190M for 6 then it would be 5 yr and about $160 M after 2021. In the current business environment, I don't see Arenado getting more than $160 M guaranteed as a 31 year old - he is very good but this is NOT a 5 tool Trout/Betts level -player. Higher likelihood the deal turns into a financial boondoggle in the later years (Tulo like) than it is that they lose him after 1 year.

 

Groshans or Martin plus a good pitching prospect for Arenado would be a big short term win and likely overall win

 

Are you f***ing insane?

[Farm]

Are you f***ing insane?

 

Thanks for paraphrasing my 200 words into 4.

[Ray]

Groshans has not played for a season and a half. Not to mention Barreto was great too....... If he is still owed $190M for 6 then it would be 5 yr and about $160 M after 2021. In the current business environment, I don't see Arenado getting more than $160 M guaranteed as a 31 year old - he is very good but this is NOT a 5 tool Trout/Betts level -player. Higher likelihood the deal turns into a financial boondoggle in the later years (Tulo like) than it is that they lose him after 1 year.

 

Groshans or Martin plus a good pitching prospect for Arenado would be a big short term win and likely overall win

 

By your own logic, we then would’ve given up a good haul of prospects to the Rockies for somebody who is overpaid relative to the current market, with the added risk (however small) that if he does have a career year, he’ll opt out after one season.

 

My issue with Arenado is more that he’s coming off a pretty unspectacular season and his expected statistics according to Statcast have all regressed. He’s actually making more contact, but it’s not as hard and he isn’t barrelling balls as he used to. You can make an argument that this could be a reason to buy low on him, but the Rockies aren’t going to accept a deal anything short of what a peak Arenado would’ve fetched.

 

There’s also good alternatives to Arenado on the trade front and in the free agent market, and I just don’t see the need to make that type of splash just yet. You can very easily revisit these conversation next offseason when there will be more certainty about his contract status and if he bounces back.

[JuneBug]

Are you f***ing insane?

 

Did the Jays win the Donaldson trade!!!??? I am suggesting a very similar scenario that could turn out pretty much the same! Go ahead and pleasure yourself thinking about how great all those prospects will be in 2-3 (or is it4-5) years. This is real life not a video game. When you get a chance to trade prospect capital; for a star in his prime and you want to contend you pull the trigger. For example, wouldn't you rather have Arenado than that fat ass Guerrero right now?

[JuneBug]

By your own logic, we then would’ve given up a good haul of prospects to the Rockies for somebody who is overpaid relative to the current market, with the added risk (however small) that if he does have a career year, he’ll opt out after one season.

 

My issue with Arenado is more that he’s coming off a pretty unspectacular season and his expected statistics according to Statcast have all regressed. He’s actually making more contact, but it’s not as hard and he isn’t barrelling balls as he used to. You can make an argument that this could be a reason to buy low on him, but the Rockies aren’t going to accept a deal anything short of what a peak Arenado would’ve fetched.

 

There’s also good alternatives to Arenado on the trade front and in the free agent market, and I just don’t see the need to make that type of splash just yet. You can very easily revisit these conversation next offseason when there will be more certainty about his contract status and if he bounces back.

 

I don't consider a contrived 60 game season to mean much for a player that has no injury issues and is in his prime with several years of elite performance under his belt. Could be a long slump in the middle of a 162 game season would match his 2020 performance.

[Grant77]

Did the Jays win the Donaldson trade!!!??? I am suggesting a very similar scenario that could turn out pretty much the same! Go ahead and pleasure yourself thinking about how great all those prospects will be in 2-3 (or is it4-5) years. This is real life not a video game. When you get a chance to trade prospect capital; for a star in his prime and you want to contend you pull the trigger. For example, wouldn't you rather have Arenado than that fat ass Guerrero right now?

 

Can you not read or do you just not understand what an opt out is? He's basically on a one year deal with a big player option that will be turned down if he is good if that makes it more clear.

[jaysguy44]

Did the Jays win the Donaldson trade!!!??? I am suggesting a very similar scenario that could turn out pretty much the same! Go ahead and pleasure yourself thinking about how great all those prospects will be in 2-3 (or is it4-5) years. This is real life not a video game. When you get a chance to trade prospect capital; for a star in his prime and you want to contend you pull the trigger. For example, wouldn't you rather have Arenado than that fat ass Guerrero right now?

 

Ur dum

[JuneBug]

Can you not read or do you just not understand what an opt out is? He's basically on a one year deal with a big player option that will be turned down if he is good if that makes it more clear.

 

opting out with 5 years and about $160M still owed in the current environment (don't expect it to get much better for the players in a year from now), is a fools errand for a 31 year old.

[JuneBug]

Ur dum

 

You need to learn how to spell or alternatively f*** off

 

ETA what a bunch of jackals all attacking the new guy.

[jaysguy44]

You need to learn how to spell or alternatively f*** off

 

ETA what a bunch of jackals all attacking the new guy.

 

Hahaha

[JuneBug]

Hahaha

 

Very astute commentary there. Thank you very much for that

[Grant77]

opting out with 5 years and about $160M still owed in the current environment (don't expect it to get much better for the players in a year from now), is a fools errand for a 31 year old.

 

If he's as good as you say then he will opt out, no question. If he sucks then we gave up assets and are stuck with a bad contract. Picking up Arenado is a lose-lose for us unless he costs very little.

[Jays24]

opting out with 5 years and about $160M still owed in the current environment (don't expect it to get much better for the players in a year from now), is a fools errand for a 31 year old.

 

So you think he isnt good enough to opt out of his contract but want to trade valuable pieces just to get him? Why not just keep our assets and use that money towards the current crop of free agents?

 

I think going your route should be Plan B but with us going after Lindor instead and ensuring an extension is part of the package.

[max silver]

Very astute commentary there. Thank you very much for that

 

It shouldn't take rocket science to come to a conclusion that sending out top prospects, especially the likes of Groshans or Martin (who should be essentially untouchable, he very well may end up being the Jays best overall player within a few years of hitting MLB) for a player that could very well opt out after one season would be insanely risky. Look at the Dodgers model of building a dynasty, they have prospects that they view as untouchable and will not trade them no matter what the return is. Guys like Lux and May provide cheap young reinforcements that allow for the remaining salary space to be spent on MVP level talent like Mookie Betts and absorbing the contract of David Price. The Jays have been burned plenty in the past by trading for expensive star players, look no further than the ill fated Marlins trade where multiple prospects were sent out in a move that was a straight salary dump on the part of the Marlins. Instead of giving up top prospects and still having to pay top dollar salary wise for a top player, why not just sign a free agent instead and save the prospects?

[max silver]

So you think he isnt good enough to opt out of his contract but want to trade valuable pieces just to get him? Why not just keep our assets and use that money towards the current crop of free agents?

 

I think going your route should be Plan B but with us going after Lindor instead and ensuring an extension is part of the package.

 

If top prospects are going to be sent out I'd rather go big and shoot for somebody with more control like Jose Ramirez. His contract situation is so ridiculously team friendly that the acquisition cost would be crazy high though. Paying top prospect(s) and then handing out an inflated free agent contract to Lindor seems foolish to me given how many star short stops are a year away from free agency.

[Jays24]

If top prospects are going to be sent out I'd rather go big and shoot for somebody with more control like Jose Ramirez. His contract situation is so ridiculously team friendly that the acquisition cost would be crazy high though. Paying top prospect(s) and then handing out an inflated free agent contract to Lindor seems foolish to me given how many star short stops are a year away from free agency.

 

Worked out pretty well for the Dodgers and Betts. Not saying we're on the cusp of a world series like the Dodgers but trading for Lindor gives you the rights to negotiate an extension now.

 

The trade only happens if we're able to get the extension done which is the advantageous part of trading for him. In free agency, its a total free-for-all and you're not guaranteed anything.

[Spanky99]

You need to learn how to spell or alternatively f*** off

 

ETA what a bunch of jackals all attacking the new guy.

 

New guy, lol.

[JuneBug]

It shouldn't take rocket science to come to a conclusion that sending out top prospects, especially the likes of Groshans or Martin (who should be essentially untouchable, he very well may end up being the Jays best overall player within a few years of hitting MLB) for a player that could very well opt out after one season would be insanely risky. Look at the Dodgers model of building a dynasty, they have prospects that they view as untouchable and will not trade them no matter what the return is. Guys like Lux and May provide cheap young reinforcements that allow for the remaining salary space to be spent on MVP level talent like Mookie Betts and absorbing the contract of David Price. The Jays have been burned plenty in the past by trading for expensive star players, look no further than the ill fated Marlins trade where multiple prospects were sent out in a move that was a straight salary dump on the part of the Marlins. Instead of giving up top prospects and still having to pay top dollar salary wise for a top player, why not just sign a free agent instead and save the prospects?

 

Who do you suggest for the left side of the infield on the FA market that can move the needle the way Arenado can (D and O both, notwithstanding a s***** 2020 pseudo-season)?! Maybe Simmons if he bounces back, maybe Semien, but only really had one outstanding season in 2019. Turner is older than dirt and likely will rather stay with the Dodgers than move to a team that may be stuck playing in Buffalo again (can't f***ING believe I am saying that but April will be here before you know it, and everyone is still running around with their hair on fire COVID wise). Do you really want to wait 3 years for Groshans to 'maybe' become an elite MLB player, or get the bird in hand now?

 

 

'Fun' days ahead

Edited November 5, 2020 by JuneBug

[JuneBug]

If he's as good as you say then he will opt out, no question. If he sucks then we gave up assets and are stuck with a bad contract. Picking up Arenado is a lose-lose for us unless he costs very little.

 

NO you totally miss the point. If Arenado goes back to putting up 4-5 WAR IN 2021, that does not at all mean he automatically opts out of 5 yr $160M (approximately) at the age of 31! It only means he is worthy of that further 5 year commitment to a guy who would be 36 at the end of the contgract. Even before COVID, that would have been questionable for a 3rd baseman over 30. I really don't see him getting more guaranteed money in the post-COVID world. But, I guess we'll see what the likes of Springer and Realmuto get, but don't count on big bucks - also count on a good chance of a 'work stoppage/ lockout' prior to 2022.

 

ETA: if 1 WAR = 8 M then 4 WAR = $32M. so tell me again how a 31 year old 3rd baseman is worth more than 5/160 !?

[JuneBug]

I have a new term that applies here: PTSD = post Tulo stress disorder

[Spanky99]

You need to learn how to spell or alternatively f*** off

 

ETA what a bunch of jackals all attacking the new guy.

 

New guy, lol.

 

"New guy, lol."

 

so sayeth the village idiot / town drunk!

 

you should have been perma-banned (along with a bunch of others) a long time ago if the moderation of this forum wasn't such an obviously biased laughingstock. So much for The Hurl's 'dream' of attracting new members. You guys just retrench and circle the wagons when you get any challenge form 'outside'. Typical Southern Ontario attitude.

 

Now are you going to forward this to your 'buddies' to get me banned or actually be a man for once and fight your own battles?!

 

lol... NEW GUY!!!

[jaysguy44]

Can we ban the new guy?

[JuneBug]

lol... NEW GUY!!!

 

It's not kosher to post private messages on the forum, but as the village idiot, you would not know that. Have fun in your little sandbox, shitface!!

[Spanky99]

It's not kosher to post private messages on the forum, but as the village idiot, you would not know that. Have fun in your little sandbox, shitface!!

 

I said Good Day!

[JuneBug]

I said Good Day!

 

You did? Where?

 

BTW, it is night not day. But other than that you are right on the ball: sharp as a tack!

[Spanky99]

Haha. I'd love it...

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/free-agent-pitcher-trevor-bauer-toronto-destination/

[glory]

I am 100% for Bauer as I think there are things beyond most money and most years that could land him. The rest of the top 10 or so I don't see bargains or the guys that set up the Jays as legit contenders. You never see this many teams close to the 40 man limit prior to the rule 5 protection moves (Houston, Tampa, KC are all teams I know are at 39 right now). If teams want to be active in free agency they will end up dropping legit assets and the teams that have a bunch of trash (Boston, Washington, Philly) or space (f***ing Oakland of course) are going to improve without much risk. Other than Bauer or maybe a combo of 2 other top 10 FA's...i would rather see the team improving from other teams mistakes or financial hardships.

 

My top 3 off season priorities would be

 

1. A big trade giving the Jays a star CF, 3B or SS who has 2 to 3 years of control

2. Bauer (give him full control of his own training, allow him to pitch every 4th day, and a player option every year at a reduced rate)

3. Young pitchers on the trash pile.

 

f*** Springer, f*** Lemahieu, f*** Semien, stroman, Didi, Ozuna, Brantley and Turner. Talk to the next tier and low ball them.

 

Which star CF/SS/3B with 2-3 years of control left figures to be available in a trade, though? Those types are usually not traded, and I don't really see a player that stands out as a realistic trade candidate. Acquiring someone like that would be great, and maybe the Covid related financial losses will make teams do stupid things, but that seems on the highly unlikely side unless I'm missing an obvious trade target. Would the A's be so cheap (and disgusting as an organization) to trade Matt Chapman? Ketel Marte has 2+2 left on his contract, not sure if the D-Backs would move him. I think it's far more likely to get an upgrade in free agency in one of those spots, and it won't cost you top prospects.

 

Agreed on Bauer. Catering to his demands (pitching every 4 days) would actually help the Jays since Ryu needs more rest during the season, and we don't know how many innings Pearson can handle next year. Giving Bauer 40+ starts, if that's something that he wants, should be pretty easy as long as he stays healthy. If you told me the Jays sign Bauer and then do nothing else of real significance, then I'd be fine with that since 2-3 WAR players will be fighting for contracts this winter, so signing the best FA available and then cheaping out the rest of the way is probably a high win proposition in this market.

[saskjayfan]

so what happens first, the first free agent signing in the MLB or the finishing of the original vote count in the US election.

[Brownie19]

Which star CF/SS/3B with 2-3 years of control left figures to be available in a trade, though? Those types are usually not traded, and I don't really see a player that stands out as a realistic trade candidate. Acquiring someone like that would be great, and maybe the Covid related financial losses will make teams do stupid things, but that seems on the highly unlikely side unless I'm missing an obvious trade target. Would the A's be so cheap (and disgusting as an organization) to trade Matt Chapman? Ketel Marte has 2+2 left on his contract, not sure if the D-Backs would move him. I think it's far more likely to get an upgrade in free agency in one of those spots, and it won't cost you top prospects.

 

Agreed on Bauer. Catering to his demands (pitching every 4 days) would actually help the Jays since Ryu needs more rest during the season, and we don't know how many innings Pearson can handle next year. Giving Bauer 40+ starts, if that's something that he wants, should be pretty easy as long as he stays healthy. If you told me the Jays sign Bauer and then do nothing else of real significance, then I'd be fine with that since 2-3 WAR players will be fighting for contracts this winter, so signing the best FA available and then cheaping out the rest of the way is probably a high win proposition in this market.

 

How about Ramon Laureano? Maybe Whit Merrifield?

 

I also wonder what the Reds are up to...do they think they are still in a compete window? Eugenio Suárez and Nick Senzel could be available.

 

It's not impossible....Trent Grisham was traded last offseason. He's the type of guy we'd love to add (recognizing he didn't come cheap).

Edited November 5, 2020 by Brownie19

[Grant77]

so what happens first, the first free agent signing in the MLB or the finishing of the original vote count in the US election.

 

The Mets signed 6 free agents yesterday.