Kirk

[connorp]

 

He actually doesn’t look out-of-proportion there.

[Jimcanuck]

Remember Danny Jansen 115 wRC+ in 2018.

 

Kirk does look good so far, though.

[Grant77]

Arencibia's AAA success was likely largely attributed to playing in the Pacific Coast League where baseballs go to die. The ballparks are all bandboxes, and there are a lot of parks at elevation where breaking balls really don't move the way that they should.

 

Kirk's WORST strikeout rate in his limited minor league career was 11.2%, while Arencibia's BEST strikeout rate in the minors was 17.6%. There is really nothing in common with how these two players come about their success at the plate. Kirk has typically walked more than he has struck out so far, the guy has a pretty amazing eye at the plate. I'll agree it's too early to declare Kirk a 100% certain future star, but he certainly has the necessary ingredients to become one.

 

Reese McGuire posted sub 10% K rates at the same levels as Kirk, so I wouldn't use that as the sole measuring stick, but he looks good so far.

[Olerud363]

Early returns on Kirk's ground ball percentage are still Vlad like.

 

His Opposite field percentage is 46% though

 

I'm still convinced that guys can survive a high ground ball rate if they hit to all fields and can't be shifted. Am I wrong?

 

Also if he hits foul pole to foul pole a small percentage of the 360 foot fly balls will be useful.

 

Those aren't useful hit to center. No idea if these trends hold long term.

 

Like can Kirk and Vladdy have the same ground ball and fly ball and hard hit rates, but Vladdy hit's grounders into the shift, and fly balls to center, but Kirk hits foul pole to foul pole and is better long term?? Or will it just even out. Like eventually one week Vlad will random pull a bunch of 380 foot homers instead of flyouts to center... hmmm...

[Carlos Danger]

Arencibia's AAA success was likely largely attributed to playing in the Pacific Coast League where baseballs go to die. The ballparks are all bandboxes, and there are a lot of parks at elevation where breaking balls really don't move the way that they should.

 

Kirk's WORST strikeout rate in his limited minor league career was 11.2%, while Arencibia's BEST strikeout rate in the minors was 17.6%. There is really nothing in common with how these two players come about their success at the plate. Kirk has typically walked more than he has struck out so far, the guy has a pretty amazing eye at the plate. I'll agree it's too early to declare Kirk a 100% certain future star, but he certainly has the necessary ingredients to become one.

 

I don't put much stock into PCL either. JPA was a FSL All-Star, had a pretty good year there and also did pretty well in AA which has better pitching. To put any comparison in perspective, with my admittedly piss poor math skills. JPA had around 1745 MILB PAs before he made the MLB team. Kirk had like 619 prior to his debut, so very hard to compare apples and apples.

 

My point was, they both had amazing debuts, JPA almost hit for the cycle and had 2 Hrs.. We all saw how that worked out in the end. So, I like Kirk, I would have him on my Fantasy teams (that is my seal of approval but, I think we should be tempered in our expectations and excitement at this early stage.

[Laika]

I don't put much stock into PCL either. JPA was a FSL All-Star, had a pretty good year there and also did pretty well in AA which has better pitching. To put any comparison in perspective, with my admittedly piss poor math skills. JPA had around 1745 MILB PAs before he made the MLB team. Kirk had like 619 prior to his debut, so very hard to compare apples and apples.

 

My point was, they both had amazing debuts, JPA almost hit for the cycle and had 2 Hrs.. We all saw how that worked out in the end. So, I like Kirk, I would have him on my Fantasy teams (that is my seal of approval but, I think we should be tempered in our expectations and excitement at this early stage.

 

It's okay to have super high expectations about statistical anomaly prospects like Kirk.

 

When JPA was Kirk's age he was just getting drafted. Again, they are incomparable.

[Ray]

Remember Danny Jansen 115 wRC+ in 2018.

 

Kirk does look good so far, though.

 

Jansen seems like a hard one to gauge. I consider 2019 a wash for Jansen because he seemed to be focusing all his efforts on defense. And they clearly worked because he was one of the best defensive catchers in the majors. This season, he's one of the more unluckier hitters in baseball after going through an offseason regiment focusing on hitting. He was absolutely mashing in Spring Training and then the pandemic happened. Hard to evaluate him.

 

No matter how you split it though, Kirk/Jansen is looking like a strong tandem for years to come. Best case scenario is hoping McGuire is doing well in the alternate site, and a team desperate for catching trades intriguing pitching for him this offseason (McGuire+ for Joe Musgrove?). Riley Adams seems like he could be a perfectly cromulent backup C, and Gabby Moreno has some real potential behind him as well. C is still such a position of strength for this team regardless of how Jansen/McGuire have turned out.

[max silver]

Reese McGuire posted sub 10% K rates at the same levels as Kirk, so I wouldn't use that as the sole measuring stick, but he looks good so far.

 

I'm hardly using the k rate as the only measuring stick here, just more of a way to differentiate between the minor league success of Kirk vs Arencibia. If I were to look for measuring sticks for Kirk's minor league success I would be more apt to look at the 153 WRC+ that he produced in high A Dunedin as a 20 year old.

[Boxcar]

I have faith in Kirk.. However, just remember JPA.. He hit two HRs in a debut game and was physically a specimen. Weight on knees at catcher, league adjustments... Still too early to anoint him the great one.

 

They are two completely different players.

[Brownie19]

 

This reminds me of the video posted recently of Vlad hitting the walk off dinger in Montreal. It's like Vlad and Kirk joined Randy Santel for a food challenge trip across America immediately afterwards.

[wilko]

This reminds me of the video posted recently of Vlad hitting the walk off dinger in Montreal. It's like Vlad and Kirk joined Randy Santel for a food challenge trip across America immediately afterwards.

 

Only they didn't hit the gym after it's all over. That dude can eat!

[King]

Think pictures can be deceiving. Kirk has always been obese. It's really not a case of him getting bigger and bigger.

 

Look at this video from Bluefield (starting at 1:24):

[TheDragon]

Think pictures can be deceiving. Kirk has always been obese. It's really not a case of him getting bigger and bigger.

 

Look at this video from Bluefield (starting at 1:24):

 

I think it's a case of not being able to suck in his gut while batting and running hahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

[TheDragon]

No, it's not. His average exit velo is like 97mph. This was bound to even out.

 

So, he doesn't strike out, doesn't really chase, is very selective and smokes the ball when he makes contact. There's no way he was ever going to remain a below average hitter.

 

Yeah, he's probably not an over 200 wRC+ hitter, but settling into the 130-140 range is pretty easy to see given what he's done so far.

 

Fun fact, after that game, he has a higher WAR than Danny Jansen. He should be the starter. He's worked extremely well with pitchers who have tons of movement and velocity but little idea of where it's going, while also doing a pretty great job framing. His game calling does not appear to be an issue.

 

This guy came from A+ to the majors and looks like he belongs. That's remarkable. If he can drop 30-40 pounds, we have a long term superstar on our hands.

 

I barely have the energy to read this post, let alone reply to it... he's passing the eye test as well, yadda yadda...

[King]

Think the Jansen hate is a little much. He does some things well. If I were another team I'd be trying to buy low on him.

 

Think there's a few prime seasons of above average offense production in there.

[Laika]

Think the Jansen hate is a little much. He does some things well. If I were another team I'd be trying to buy low on him.

 

Think there's a few prime seasons of above average offense production in there.

 

Great trade chip, honestly.

[wilko]

Kirk's dinger in slow motion from yesterday:

 

[gruber92]

Kirk getting the start again tonight and batting eighth. If he has another good night, I think Charlie will actually ride him (literally is also a possibility).

[JFD]

Kirk should definitely be the starter until he proves otherwise

[43211234]

Kirk is second in baseball in average exit velocity

 

Too late to win rookie of the year and/or MVP?

[xposbrad]

I mean, he doesn't look 5'8 265lbs. Is that accurate on his weight? He looks 50lbs less than that.

[Orgfiller]

I mean, he doesn't look 5'8 265lbs. Is that accurate on his weight? He looks 50lbs less than that.

 

You think he looks slimmer than his listed weight? Wow, that's gotta be a first.

[jaysguy44]

Kirk should definitely be the starter until he proves otherwise

 

This

[Krylian]

I mean, he doesn't look 5'8 265lbs. Is that accurate on his weight? He looks 50lbs less than that.

 

What? No chance he's less than 265

[saskjayfan]

What? No chance he's less than 265

 

I'll give him 255!....He probably loses 5 to 6 pounds catching a game.

[Deadpool]

Kirk's dinger in slow motion from yesterday:

 

 

That was EXACTLY the video I was hoping for...

[Dokken]

What? No chance he's less than 265

 

I would guess true height is 5' 6.5" and 5' 7.5" with shoes (cleats) which they then round up to 5'8". He looks absolutely tiny up there at the plate, (height wise), but then again he also seems to crouch down a lot. The weight doesn't seem too far off to me, and they never underreport. I think he is naturally 'thick' (legitimately big-boned) and also carrying a pretty big belly, so 265 lb would not surprise me. If he gets it down to 230 lb, he should be OK. Speaking of which Vlad is looking better in that department on a weekly basis lately, so that's something...

[RustyTrombone]

I would guess true height is 5' 6.5" and 5' 7.5" with shoes (cleats) which they then round up to 5'8". He looks absolutely tiny up there at the plate, (height wise), but then again he also seems to crouch down a lot. The weight doesn't seem too far off to me, and they never underreport. I think he is naturally 'thick' (legitimately big-boned) and also carrying a pretty big belly, so 265 lb would not surprise me. If he gets it down to 230 lb, he should be OK. Speaking of which Vlad is looking better in that department on a weekly basis lately, so that's something...

 

Speaking of Vlad he does look like hes lot a ton of weight since the season started. I wonder with Tellez coming back hopefully in time for the playoffs, do you move Vlad back to third with Tellez at 1st and Kirk DH whenever he doesnt catch?

[Laika]

Speaking of Vlad he does look like hes lot a ton of weight since the season started. I wonder with Tellez coming back hopefully in time for the playoffs, do you move Vlad back to third with Tellez at 1st and Kirk DH whenever he doesnt catch?

 

Seems like a defensive disaster waiting to happen.

 

I think you just DH Vlad and Kirk is the starting catcher. I'd rather have whoever at third than Jansen starting all the time.

 

But Tellez coming back isn't a given. He looked pretty hobbled after the injury.

[Brownie19]

Speaking of Vlad he does look like hes lot a ton of weight since the season started. I wonder with Tellez coming back hopefully in time for the playoffs, do you move Vlad back to third with Tellez at 1st and Kirk DH whenever he doesnt catch?

 

No. You don't put Vlad at 3rd. Just no.