Fire Charlie Montoyo - The thread worked guys!

[The Iceman]

MAYBE it is time to move Lou-Gu-Ju and his .308 up a tad bit from 7th in the order Chuck...just saying.

[connorp]

MAYBE it is time to move Lou-Gu-Ju and his .308 up a tad bit from 7th in the order Chuck...just saying.

 

Bro.. do you know where you’re posting? They don’t be usin’ no avridge around here. Gtfo

[Brownie19]

Bro.. do you know where you’re posting? They don’t be usin’ no avridge around here. Gtfo

 

No worries - his 142 wRC+ also confirms he shouldn't be hitting 7th. He's our 3rd best hitter.

[glory]

MAYBE it is time to move Lou-Gu-Ju and his .308 up a tad bit from 7th in the order Chuck...just saying.

 

I'm curious how Buntoyo would have set the 1993 lineup. Cito at least had the excuse of it being 1993 and advanced stats were less prevalent. It was still very much a "back of the baseball card" time in baseball. Today, we know practically everything down to the tiniest detail about how good a hitter actually is, and Charles is batting bad hitters 3rd, his best hitters 8th, a hot hitter 7th, etc. If these decisions are being done above Montoyo, then I need to hear the logic. At least with Charlie we can chalk it up to him being in over his head, but the front office shouldn't be.

[Olerud363]

Bro.. do you know where you’re posting? They don’t be usin’ no avridge around here. Gtfo

 

Average is dumb. Just present lifetime on base and life time slugging. Or combine them with one of the fancier stats that's weights on base percentage a bit more.

 

Lourdes is better than Hernandez probably. Life time stats a bit better, over 162 would likely be a bit better.

 

Here are the rankings of best to worst hitter using common sense (instead of batting average)

 

Vlad - over 162 games would likely still be best HIGHER RISK (potential obesity induced ground ball rate is not fully understood).

Bo - lower risk?

Biggio - over 162 games would probably be 3rd - HIGHER RISK - can't hit fastball according to Kieth Law, just something to look out for

Lourdes - lower risk?

Hernandez - breakout HIGHER RISK - breakouts over 40 games can't be taken totally seriously

Kirk - Vlad lite - HIGHER RISK - lite as in hitting cieling, but just as heavy and shorter, obesity induced ground ball issues could be factor

Rowdy - not sure

Grichuk - is what he is

Shaw - lower because of assumption he lost it... but if he didn't lose it he is above Grichuk

Panik - gamer, heart, soul,

[connorp]

No worries - his 142 wRC+ also confirms he shouldn't be hitting 7th. He's our 3rd best hitter.

 

I agree. It was just in jest

[connorp]

Teo is 100+ games now though. Not that it means a ton but it gives more hope than 40

[Laika]

Average is dumb. Just present lifetime on base and life time slugging. Or combine them with one of the fancier stats that's weights on base percentage a bit more.

 

Lourdes is better than Hernandez probably. Life time stats a bit better, over 162 would likely be a bit better.

 

Here are the rankings of best to worst hitter using common sense (instead of batting average)

 

Vlad - over 162 games would likely still be best HIGHER RISK (potential obesity induced ground ball rate is not fully understood).

Bo - lower risk?

Biggio - over 162 games would probably be 3rd - HIGHER RISK - can't hit fastball according to Kieth Law, just something to look out for

Lourdes - lower risk?

Hernandez - breakout HIGHER RISK - breakouts over 40 games can't be taken totally seriously

Kirk - Vlad lite - HIGHER RISK - lite as in hitting cieling, but just as heavy and shorter, obesity induced ground ball issues could be factor

Rowdy - not sure

Grichuk - is what he is

Shaw - lower because of assumption he lost it... but if he didn't lose it he is above Grichuk

Panik - gamer, heart, soul,

 

Projection systems would have a different order

 

Note that "Depth Charts" is ZiPS + Steamer. ZiPS and Steamer might disagree.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfangraphsdc&team=14&lg=all&players=0&sort=21,d

[Olerud363]

Projection systems would have a different order

 

Note that "Depth Charts" is ZiPS + Steamer. ZiPS and Steamer might disagree.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfangraphsdc&team=14&lg=all&players=0&sort=21,d

 

That's pretty interesting. I got the first 2 right, but called Biggio and Gurriel wrong ....

 

Biggio and Gurriel are projected below their major league averages, so I guess their really bad 2017 minor league seasons are still dampening their projections.

 

As a human, I'm very smart and know there was a very specific reason for those bad seasons, then they fixed the reason and improved, so their major league averages are a better estimate going forward.

 

The machine (if created properly) has seen every minor league season in existence and (should) know how to properly weight a bad minor league season better than I do.

[Brownie19]

Projection systems would have a different order

 

Note that "Depth Charts" is ZiPS + Steamer. ZiPS and Steamer might disagree.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfangraphsdc&team=14&lg=all&players=0&sort=21,d

 

It's hard imagine any projection system would suggest Vlad will be our best hitter for the remaining portion of our season.

[Laika]

That's pretty interesting. I got the first 2 right, but called Biggio and Gurriel wrong ....

 

Biggio and Gurriel are projected below their major league averages, so I guess their really bad 2017 minor league seasons are still dampening their projections.

As a human, I'm very smart and know there was a very specific reason for those bad seasons, then they fixed the reason and improved, so their major league averages are a better estimate going forward.

 

The machine (if created properly) has seen every minor league season in existence and (should) know how to properly weight a bad minor league season better than I do.

 

I think it is mostly regression to the mean (the mean being an average hitter). Biggio and Gurriel and Bichette don't have huge MLB samples. Absent otherwordly inputs (see Juan Soto) it tends to take a few seasons of great production before the projection systems accept that a player is great.

 

On the flip side, the computer still thinks Vlad will be very good based on some of his Soto-like inputs (age, minor league production, K/BB rates).

[wilko]

I think it is mostly regression to the mean (the mean being an average hitter). Biggio and Gurriel and Bichette don't have huge MLB samples. Absent otherwordly inputs (see Juan Soto) it tends to take a few seasons of great production before the projection systems accept that a player is great.

 

On the flip side, the computer still thinks Vlad will be very good based on some of his Soto-like inputs (age, minor league production, K/BB rates).

 

Does the computer take Soto's shuffle into account?

[Laika]

It's hard imagine any projection system would suggest Vlad will be our best hitter for the remaining portion of our season.

 

It's not hard to imagine that a projection system would say that.

 

Here is the lesson: Vlad has a large amount of historical inputs that suggest he will be a great hitter. Many of those inputs are still relevant to some degree. He has been mediocre at the MLB level but not bad enough and not mediocre for a long enough time to ruin his projections.

 

The computer is being more objective (and, by coincidence, forgiving) than us emotional fans.

[Laika]

Does the computer take Soto's shuffle into account?

 

Yes.

 

Little known fact - Vlad had his own shuffle but the Blue Jays coaches made him stop when he got to spring training in 2019. It was a lot like Soto's.

[Jimcanuck]

I think it is mostly regression to the mean (the mean being an average hitter). Biggio and Gurriel and Bichette don't have huge MLB samples. Absent otherwordly inputs (see Juan Soto) it tends to take a few seasons of great production before the projection systems accept that a player is great.

 

On the flip side, the computer still thinks Vlad will be very good based on some of his Soto-like inputs (age, minor league production, K/BB rates).

 

Do projection systems account for fatness?

[connorp]

If we had Jo Adell I’m assuming there’d be a ton of posts in a DFA Adell thread

[wilko]

If we had Jo Adell I’m assuming there’d be a ton of posts in a DFA Adell thread

 

Nah too early for Adell.

[Laika]

If we had Jo Adell I’m assuming there’d be a ton of posts in a DFA Adell thread

 

I don't think there's a clean comparable for Vlad's type of disappointment. Adell is not the same - his minor league numbers weren't nearly as good (up and down production and lots of Ks); scouts just like the shape of his butt an awful lot.

 

Closest I can think of in the current era is Jurickson Profar. We are talking about a consensus (Keith Law excepted) #1 prospect being a let down.

[RustyTrombone]

Adell is alford 2.0 and not cause they are both black. The swings and loads between the two are so similar.

[wilko]

Adell is alford 2.0 and not cause they are both black. The swings and loads between the two are so similar.

 

[connorp]

 

Should’ve been a grape soda can on there somewhere. How is he supposed to wash down the fried chicken?

[Olerud363]

Do projection systems account for fatness?

 

Hard to see that they do. If you had accurate BMI and percentage body mass indexes for each year you could put them in. But It's hard to get accurate weights for players even in 2020, so hard to see how you'd get a good historical dataset.

 

I would hope the high performance team is keeping careful track of all fatness related metrics and how it affects ability to hit. I know Vlad can still crank a grounder out at 115 once and a while, but is the fatness affecting his ability to hit different pitches consistently??

[connorp]

I don't think there's a clean comparable for Vlad's type of disappointment. Adell is not the same - his minor league numbers weren't nearly as good (up and down production and lots of Ks); scouts just like the shape of his butt an awful lot.

 

Closest I can think of in the current era is Jurickson Profar. We are talking about a consensus (Keith Law excepted) #1 prospect being a let down.

 

True. I was mostly going on age. But also Vlad isn’t nearly as awful (Overmatched) so it that sense it’s evened up a bit in terms of disappointment

[connorp]

Hard to see that they do. If you had accurate BMI and percentage body mass indexes for each year you could put them in. But It's hard to get accurate weights for players even in 2020, so hard to see how you'd get a good historical dataset.

 

I would hope the high performance team is keeping careful track of all fatness related metrics and how it affects ability to hit. I know Vlad can still crank a grounder out at 115 once and a while, but is the fatness affecting his ability to hit different pitches consistently??

 

The obvious impact to WAR would be Bsr and Fielding. Definitely can make the case there for slimming down but I’m not sure you could explain how that will make him a better hitter. Idk. Good physics question

[Olerud363]

Hard to see that they do. If you had accurate BMI and percentage body mass indexes for each year you could put them in. But It's hard to get accurate weights for players even in 2020, so hard to see how you'd get a good historical dataset.

 

I would hope the high performance team is keeping careful track of all fatness related metrics and how it affects ability to hit. I know Vlad can still crank a grounder out at 115 once and a while, but is the fatness affecting his ability to hit different pitches consistently??

 

They should have 2 young guys, hard core passionate sports fans, one a CS/Data graduate, the other a Kinesilogy graduate, pay them 50 grand for a year, team them with a 2 scouts, one young, one old and grumpy, have them consult with 2 sports psycholagists and 2 nutrition experts. Fund the entire thing for about 350k

 

Entire project is dedicated to Vladimir Guerroro JR. A fat young man who should hit better then he is.

 

Wouldn't the investment be worth it?? I guess they are likely doing this in some form or the other... you would think. Though if Charlie is an idiot and they can't recognize it, maybe there are other things they can't recognize.

 

The question of whether Charlie is a complete idiot or not (the purpose of this thread), is highly correlated to the answers to a bunch of other questions.

[Laika]

True. I was mostly going on age. But also Vlad isn’t nearly as awful (Overmatched) so it that sense it’s evened up a bit in terms of disappointment

 

Yeah, part of the frustration with Vlad is that he's SO CLOSE to being great.

 

It's not like he got to MLB and, whelp, it became clear that he can't hit elite MLB pitches. That type of obvious failure is almost easier to accept. If Jo Adell never hits MLB pitching it will kind of be the fulfillment of what was always an obvious risk in his profile.

 

But Vlad can put the bat on nearly any pitch, strikeouts aren't a problem, and he can hit the ball 120 mph and 500 feet when he connects correctly. The mechanical flaws that have him hitting the ball 110+ mph directly into the dirt are just infuriating. It's so hard to figure out why it's the case, why it hasn't been fixed, whether it is a permanent or short term problem.

 

You'd almost prefer a prospect to just fail, rather than tease you with their potential forever! (not really)

[Laika]

Your butchering of scientific method is getting on my nerves.

 

How has he butchered the scientific method?

[Stangstag]

They should have 2 young guys, hard core passionate sports fans, one a CS/Data graduate, the other a Kinesilogy graduate, pay them 50 grand for a year, team them with a 2 scouts, one young, one old and grumpy, have them consult with 2 sports psycholagists and 2 nutrition experts. Fund the entire thing for about 350k

 

Entire project is dedicated to Vladimir Guerroro JR. A fat young man who should hit better then he is.

 

Wouldn't the investment be worth it?? I guess they are likely doing this in some form or the other... you would think. Though if Charlie is an idiot and they can't recognize it, maybe there are other things they can't recognize.

 

The question of whether Charlie is a complete idiot or not (the purpose of this thread), is highly correlated to the answers to a bunch of other questions.

 

You’re assuming you can just throw money at the problem and it will be fixed. Gotta remember that VLAD is the one who has to put in the work, make the changes, follow the plan/guides, diet, work out, etc.

 

It starts and stops with Vlad himself. If HE wants to lose weight, he will. If he doesn’t want to stop eating, no amount of money will fix the issue.

[RobinThicc]

Dont think montoyo will be managing this team when they have legit championship aspirations.

 

He's proven he's nothing more than a stop gap manager

[Terminator]

One of the dumbest managerial moves I've ever seen occurred tonight. I actually didn't see it, I was working late so I saw the gamecast version. I couldn't really believe my eyes so if something weird happened, like Jansen tried a safety squeeze or something and I just didn't realize it please let me know.

 

But we are tied 2-2 in the top of the 4th inning with one out and runners on 1st and 3rd. JC Romero entered the game 3 batters ago and gave up 2 singles and a HBP. Jansen steps up to the plate with runners on 1st and 3rd and 1 out. Montoyo has him bunt the runner over to second. That play dropped our win expectancy from 73 to 66.5%. Biggio steps to the plate with 2 outs now and hits a single. But Bichette then grounds out to end the inning.

 

Did that really happen?

Edited September 19, 2020 by Terminator