GDT: MLB Draft, June 10, 2020

[Laika]

I'd buy it if Trout was like, say, Bellinger, who kinda came out of nowhere to be a top 5 player. However, out the gate Trout was putting up monster numbers and he never stopped.

 

I'm not really sure what Callis means, but if he's referring to hype, wrong (Harper) and if he's actually referring to best offensive talent drafted, wrong (Trout, among others)

 

Nobody was putting 60 hit 80 power grades on Trout or even Harper at the time of the draft though. Future 80 for Harper but he needed time to develop. I think that’s what Callis would clarify his point as - best offensive talent as scouted on present grades at the time of the drafts. It’s a stupid little needle but I’m sure that’s what he was thinking

[saskjayfan]

 

1000 dollars to feed Boras' ego. Will he move on to Martin now? There's only 5 first rounders who haven't signed yet.

[Orgfiller]

Nobody was putting 60 hit 80 power grades on Trout or even Harper at the time of the draft though. Future 80 for Harper but he needed time to develop. I think that’s what Callis would clarify his point as - best offensive talent as scouted on present grades at the time of the drafts. It’s a stupid little needle but I’m sure that’s what he was thinking

 

Kris Bryant?

[Laika]

Kris Bryant?

 

Funny, I just googled it and saw that Jim Callis himself put an 80 on Bryant's raw power in 2013. I'm sure their in-context grades would be about the same but maybe Torkelson would be perceived as having a more elite eye/approach.

[Boxcar]

Really don’t read too much into it. There’s a difference if Jim Callis wrote an article about it, or if he went on BA podcast and debated Torkelson being superior to every other prospect in the draft.

 

In his own words during BA podcast, if he had the no. 1 overall pick he would take Asa Lacy. And Collazo debated he would take Austin Martin. If he really thought Torkelson was the next Mark McGwire he wouldn’t come out and say this. And not once have BA took the stance that Asa Lacy is a generational talent. His tweets are there to build leads for the website and grab attention, that’s it.

 

BA’s grades are all future grades, they don’t deal with present grades like fangraphs. For good reason, as there’s really no scientific way to prove the gap between a prospects present grade and future grade. It’s simply speculation.

 

Good thing Jim Callis isn't a GM, I guess.

[BlueRocky]

[BlueRocky]

 

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, first and foremost I hope you all are staying safe and healthy out there. Let's get chatting.

 

 

Tim (SLC):

 

Has there been any word on how the draft order will be determined? How do you think it will be structured? And how would you set it up if it were up to you?

 

Kyle Glaser: The Commissioner has the right to determine next year's draft order in consultation with the MLBPA since the season will be fewer than 81 games. For now, they have not made a decision whether they will actually exercise that right. Personally, I think it's critically important to just make next year's draft order the reverse of this year's standings. Anything else is going to look like cronyism or favoritism. That's what I would do and what I strongly believe MLB needs to do.

 

 

Roger (Washington DC):

 

What will access be like at the player pool camps both for industry people (scouts filing reports on potential trade targets) and for people like you (and by extension us fans)? Will there be video or reports coming out of there similar to what we might occasionally get from XST or Instructs?

 

Kyle Glaser: Camps at home ballparks will be accessible to media, but no one - media, fans scouts - is allowed at alternate training sites. Any info out of alternate site camps will come from talking with team officials, who are only allowed to view their own alternate site camps. Any reports will be come from talking to them and their observations. There won't be any opposing scout views (or personal views) to draw from and vet those observations.

 

 

Ryan (LA):

 

Chances this doesn’t become a complete mess, with multiple teams having to shut down camps due to covid?

 

Kyle Glaser: I hope that doesn't happen, for reasons beyond baseball. The protocols MLB has put in place are super, super strict and detailed so there is a chance they get through this, but I don't feel comfortable putting a percentage on it.

 

 

Keith (California):

 

What are the chance that guys like Asa Lacy, Reid Detmers and Garrett Crochet see mlb action this year?

 

Kyle Glaser: It's possible you see Crochet pitching out of the bullpen at some point. Detmers is more of a pure starter whose arsenal doesn't really fit in relief, while there is no reason for the Royals to push Lacy when they have so many other more experienced pitching prospects and won't be in contention. Never say never, but I'd be very, very surprised if Detmers and Lacy pitch in the majors this year.

 

 

Mike (San Diego):

 

How much of the season would a team need to keep a top prospect out the majors to manipulate service time this year?

 

Kyle Glaser: One week. That's it. That's all a team needs to hold a player down this year to gain an additional year of service.

 

 

Tyler (Portland):

 

Will service time manipulation be more or less rampant this year given the shortened season?

 

Kyle Glaser: Considering it's only going to be one week a player needs to be held down, I think we'll see a decent bit of it.

 

 

Pete (Chicago):

 

Will Nick Madrigal be the White Sox’s starting 2B on opening day?

 

Kyle Glaser: The White Sox have generally been one of the many clubs that manipulates service time unless the player signs an extension (see: Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert), so my inclination is to say no unless they sign Madrigal to an extension between now and Opening Day. Independent of that, though, it's also going to depend on if he looks good in camp and wins the job. He wasn't exactly thrilling people in spring training before camps shut down. He's still a young guy who has one year of pro ball under his belt and could still benefit from some development time.

 

 

Zack (St. Louis):

 

If things go poorly in the camps with covid, will the mlb consider a bubble similar to the nba?

 

Kyle Glaser: They're going to exhaust all possible options before cancelling the season. MLB has already reserved the right to move teams to any location they deem necessary during camp and the 2020 season. In theory, they have the authority to put a number of teams at one site, although that presents a whole other host of nightmare logistical and health issues.

 

 

Luke (Seattle):

 

What happens if a player dies from covid? Could the union/family of the player pursue legal action against the league?

 

Kyle Glaser: Obviously this is the nightmare scenario. We all love baseball, but it's not worth anyone losing their life over. That would have to shut the league down. There's no way they can continue if anyone dies (non-players such as managers, coaches and other personnel included). As for your second question, MLB's operations manual dictates that covered individuals have to sign an acknowledgement and authorization form regarding the use and disclosure of health information in order to participate in the 2020 season. I do not know, and have not seen anyone else report, if that form deals with potential legal action in the scenario you described.

 

 

Jake (Fort Worth):

 

Do you anticipate more player will opt out of the season?

 

Kyle Glaser: Yes.

 

 

SBNY (Philadelphia PA):

 

Many MLB Teams have included top young prospects on their 60 player roster For the Mets, they seem to include only prospects Gimenes and Petersen. I understand about not including Pete Crowe-Armstrong, Baty, Allen and others just out of HS and no full season exposure. Why not include Mauricio, Szapucki,Vientos, etc? It cant hurt and might help their development practicing with the big club. What are your thoughts?

 

Kyle Glaser: The Mets view themselves as a contending team and are going to prioritize putting players who can help them in the majors this season over the development of prospects who won't be a factor this year. That's not necessarily the wrong view. The goal is to win games in the major leagues. For a contender, putting players who can help you do that on the roster is priority No. 1. That all being said, the Mets also still have 15 open spots on their 60-man roster. I fully expect them to add guys like Mauricio, Szapucki, etc. for developmental purposes once they add the final pieces to their 60-man pool they feel like will help them win this year.

 

 

Chet (Toronto, ON):

 

What is the latest on Austin Martin? Will he sign and could he appear in a big league game this year?

 

Kyle Glaser: The expectation is he will sign. As for appearing in the big leagues, never say never but I don't see why he would. No reason to rush it. The Blue Jays have plenty of infield options and he's still a kid fresh out of college who needs development. He's a good player with a bright future, but he's not big-league ready.

 

 

Max (Prairie Village, KS):

 

Biggest surprises on a 60-man club pool? Anyone you're surprised was left off?

 

Kyle Glaser: I don't know if I'd use the word "surprised" but it raised my eyebrows that Corey Ray and Austin Beck were left off their respective teams' player pools. Top 10 picks from 2016 and 2017 not being included on their 60-man pools is notable, and not in the good way. Keep in mind, however, that both the Brewers and A's (as well as most other teams) still have some open spots, so they could be added later.

 

 

Tim (SLC):

 

Any expectation on Jorge Mateo return? Back-end of the top 30 type? Padres farm is so deep, that almost feels like too much for an OOO guy without a home in Oakland.

 

Kyle Glaser: I'd be surprised if it's more than an organizational depth arm.

 

 

Mike (Virginia):

 

Do you think there is any chance of a fall league for international players? I think about all the development lost for players that would have been in the DSL this summer. Do top players just go to the GCL/AZL next year without any professional experience?

 

Kyle Glaser: Maybe. It's going to depend on the health data coming out of the Dominican Republic if they can host something like that out there. As for your second question, it's going to vary player-by-player, but it's very possible all those guys who normally would have played in the DSL this year and the AZL/GCL next year are instead going to have their DSL season next year. A lot of players' development is going to be pushed back a year, both internationally and domestically.

 

 

JJ (Atlanta, GA):

 

Do you think other indy leagues will get it going? Here's some exciting info. We will be able to Watch LIVE Pro Baseball This Friday! The start of the United Shore Professional Baseball League 2020 season is HAPPENING! All games streamed on YouTube!

 

Kyle Glaser: Some will. A lot of new independent leagues are popping up. And we've been able to watch live pro baseball for awhile now. The CPBL and KBO have been going strong for months.

 

 

James (Chicago):

 

I see only two Switch hitters so far in next years draft.(Danny Serretti and Edwin Arroyo) Is this just an odd year or is switch hitting going out of fashion?

 

Kyle Glaser: A lot more players are going to assert themselves as draft prospects between now and next June. Don't try and draw any conclusions based on a very limited draft pool.

 

 

Jacob (Wilmington, NC):

 

Do you know of any plans to televise Summer Camp games/scrimmages? MLB.tv, ESPN, etc.

 

Kyle Glaser: Has not been announced yet. If it is, we'll have all the details.

 

Kyle Glaser: Looks like that's it for today. Thanks for coming out everyone and have a safe and healthy Fourth of July.

[THANOS]

They are saying to make the draft order the reverse of the standings? Does that mean they are implying that the best teams should get the high draft picks? If so, how is that fair, like he's saying?

[BlueRocky]

[Krylian]

They are saying to make the draft order the reverse of the standings? Does that mean they are implying that the best teams should get the high draft picks? If so, how is that fair, like he's saying?

 

Not fair...but would make a strong statement against tanking.

[THANOS]

Not fair...but would make a strong statement against tanking.

 

A strong statement yes for sure. But some teams couldn't compete with the better teams even if they wanted to, at this stage, so they couldn't take advantage of that incentive.

 

In my opinion the fairest, would be to add 2020 record to 2019 record to determine the order. This way, even if you wanted to do the reverse standings, you subtract from 2019 instead of adding it, and it wouldn't take advantage as much of the awful teams.

[BlueRocky]

The worst teams should get the highest picks. But if the #1 pick next year is decided by a two month schedule, that’s just asking for bad teams to tank this year. They could even “opt out” their MLB roster and just field org players with players deciding not to play now due to covid.

 

MLB needs to figure out a fair way to do it. Automatically giving the Tigers the no. 1 pick for 2021 is probably not fair and a huge advantage to them. But in this case the Blue Jays also get another 5th overall pick regardless if they win this season.

 

They can also do some type of average on standings between multiple years, or a lottery.

[Captain Adama]

The worst teams should get the highest picks. But if the #1 pick next year is decided by a two month schedule, that’s just asking for bad teams to tank this year. They could even “opt out” their MLB roster and just field org players with players deciding not to play now due to covid.

 

MLB needs to figure out a fair way to do it. Automatically giving the Tigers the no. 1 pick for 2021 is probably not fair and a huge advantage to them. But in this case the Blue Jays also get another 5th overall pick regardless if they win this season.

 

They can also do some type of average on standings between multiple years, or a lottery.

 

IMO this season should play some sort of factor, probably base draft order off teams' record off 222 games combined played this year and last season.

[BlueRocky]

IMO this season should play some sort of factor, probably base draft order off teams' record off 222 games combined played this year and last season.

 

That’s one way to do it, this system discourages teams outside the top 4 to not throw away the season. But it does have it’s flaws.

 

The Tigers would have a 7 game advantage on Orioles from day 1, which means Baltimore would have to lose 8 more games to catch the #1 pick.

 

The Marlins are 10 game behind, and have to lose 11 more games than the Tigers. But only 3 games behind the Orioles.

 

And the Royals are 2 games behind the Marlins and need 13 more losses than the Tigers.

 

We’d have to lose 21 more games than the Tigers, it’s impossible in a 60 game schedule. Which means the teams that drafted behind us (Mariners, Pirates, Padres, Rockies) have no chance and more likely try to field a competitive team. This system still gives the Tigers a huge advantage though and the Blue Jays likely get a 9-12 pick under this system.

 

2021 doesn’t seem to be an ideal draft class to tank at the top, unless you’re gunning for specifically Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter. I mean at first glance, it’s very prep position heavy after those two arms. It’s still deep in the later rounds but not nearly as much college talent at the top of the class.

Edited July 2, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Boxcar]

They are saying to make the draft order the reverse of the standings? Does that mean they are implying that the best teams should get the high draft picks? If so, how is that fair, like he's saying?

 

No, he's saying reverse of the standings, meaning 30 pikcs first, etc, just like normal.

[THANOS]

No, he's saying reverse of the standings, meaning 30 pikcs first, etc, just like normal.

 

Thanks. Was worded very oddly.

[BlueRocky]

 

Martin is the only player in the top 10 that hasn’t signed.

[Deadpool]

 

Martin is the only player in the top 10 that hasn’t signed.

 

Boras is waiting to get that extra $1000...

[BlueRocky]

 

For the Orioles, this is where the Heston Kjerstad savings went to. Worth it?

[Laika]

Mayo’s amount over slot is less than half of how under slot Kjerstad was. They must have signed someone else over slot by like $1.4 mill?

[metafour]

Mayo’s amount over slot is less than half of how under slot Kjerstad was. They must have signed someone else over slot by like $1.4 mill?

 

5th round pick Carter Baumler is a HS pitcher who will get $1+ million as well.

[Slade]

 

For the Orioles, this is where the Heston Kjerstad savings went to. Worth it?

 

From what I read on Mayo he needs a lot of development time to tap into his tools but the pay off could be big. He is very typical O's kind of hitter, big body with lots of Pop and strikeout potential.

 

I think the Orioles did fine, Kjerstad is a good player.

[BlueRocky]

The Orioles did fine.

But as a fan, I wouldn’t want my team to just “do fine” with the largest draft $ pool and no. 2 overall pick. I rather get best player available than fool around getting creative, that’s how teams miss on star players.

 

Either way we caught a lucky break.