GDT: MLB Draft, June 10, 2020

[Farm]

To be honest I don't see the big issue.

 

One side thinks Benintendi/Rendon/Betts/whoever are the better comps from a value/WAR standpoint.

 

Another side thinks Molitor is the better comp from a stylistic standpoint.

 

Just combine the two and have a better comp/idea... what's the big deal?

[Jimcanuck]

To be honest I don't see the big issue.

 

One side thinks Benintendi/Rendon/Betts/whoever are the better comps from a value/WAR standpoint.

 

Another side thinks Molitor is the better comp from a stylistic standpoint.

 

Just combine the two and have a better comp/idea... what's the big deal?

 

The BJMB pecking order is a big deal, man.

[Farm]

The BJMB pecking order is a big deal, man.

 

Right, let me assume my rightful place at the bottom.

[Carlos Danger]

Right, let me assume my rightful place at the bottom.

 

You are the Farm....

[BlueRocky]

Here guys cheer up with some Nate Pearson videos:

 

Nate Pearson replay for those that missed it. (Spring Training vs Pirates)

 

Hey Josh Bell, don't chop at it, it's not a sword.

 

 

 

Nate Pearson VS Ryan McBroom. 3 pitches.

 

2019 AAA Ryan McBroom: .315/.402/.574, OPS 0.976, 146 wRC+

 

Nate Pearson VS Michael Chavis

 

2019 AAA Michael Chavis: .257/.329/.614, OPS 0.943, 128 wRC+

 

Nate strikesout Wittie, then Dalbec

 

*Context: Wittie got a base hit and Dalbec took him deep 1st time through the order, Nate came storming back the second time.

[Ray]

[Grant77]

 

Excellent. The other guys should also be around slot and then we can give the extra 5% to Martin.

[BlueRocky]

 

I’m thinking Trent Palmer will be under-slot #77 @ $805,600 value

and Nick Frasso be around slot #106 @ $549,000 value

Edited June 18, 2020 by BlueRocky

[43211234]

If they have signed the 4 other guys I don't see why Martin would hold off until the August deadline. They'll simply offer him every remaining penny of the pool + the 5%.

 

Maybe Boras would posture and try to get them to go beyond that but that ain't happening.

 

 

Edit: I see now that BNS was just confirmed the Britton signing. No report on Frasso yet.

[Krylian]

Excellent. The other guys should also be around slot and then we can give the extra 5% to Martin.

 

If the other guys sign for slot the most we can offer Martin is around $6.9m.

[Slade]

 

Surprised Palmer is overslot.

[Uneducatedfan]

I don't think you sign 3/5 of the players if you aren't pretty sure that you can sign your top pick.

 

We saved $312,600 with Britton's signing.

 

With Van Eyk signing for $28.9k above slot and Palmer signing for $44.4k over slot. We still have $239,300 extra to give Martin (Max deal currently around 6.9mil (edited number based on itaos post!) with us going 5% over.)

 

I think it will be interesting to see what we give Frasso. His slot value is $549k. But I think the magic number for Martin will be around 6.9-7mil. So I'm guessing we are trying to sign Frasso for about half of his slot value and get to that 7mil amount. I think it makes sense getting everyone else signed on fair deals as quickly as possible because then you can go to Scott Boras and say this is what we have to offer and it is above slot value. It also shows that they see the value in Martin, but they are also committed to making the team better and didn't just punt the rest of the draft to sign him.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Uneducatedfan

[Ray]

I don't think you sign 3/5 of the players if you aren't pretty sure that you can sign your top pick.

 

We saved $312,600 with Britton's signing.

 

With Van Eyk signing for $28.9k above slot and Palmer signing for $44.4k over slot. We still have $239,300 extra to give Martin (Max deal currently around 6.74mil with us going 5% over.)

 

I think it will be interesting to see what we give Frasso. His slot value is $549k. But I think the magic number for Martin will be around 6.9-7mil. So I'm guessing we are trying to sign Frasso for about half of his slot value and get to that 7mil amount. I think it makes sense getting everyone else signed on fair deals as quickly as possible because then you can go to Scott Boras and say this is what we have to offer and it is above slot value. It also shows that they see the value in Martin, but they are also committed to making the team better and didn't just punt the rest of the draft to sign him.

 

Maybe they had an agreement worked out with Boras already? Sign the rest of your picks as cheaply as you can, and give Martin the saving on top his slot value + the extra 5%.

[itaos]

I don't think you sign 3/5 of the players if you aren't pretty sure that you can sign your top pick.

 

We saved $312,600 with Britton's signing.

 

With Van Eyk signing for $28.9k above slot and Palmer signing for $44.4k over slot. We still have $239,300 extra to give Martin (Max deal currently around 6.74mil with us going 5% over.)

 

I think it will be interesting to see what we give Frasso. His slot value is $549k. But I think the magic number for Martin will be around 6.9-7mil. So I'm guessing we are trying to sign Frasso for about half of his slot value and get to that 7mil amount. I think it makes sense getting everyone else signed on fair deals as quickly as possible because then you can go to Scott Boras and say this is what we have to offer and it is above slot value. It also shows that they see the value in Martin, but they are also committed to making the team better and didn't just punt the rest of the draft to sign him.

 

$6,180,700 #5 slot

$485,824 5% overage

$239,300 savings

$6,905,824

 

I like the odds that this gets done

[Uneducatedfan]

$6,180,700 #5 slot

$485,824 5% overage

$239,300 savings

$6,905,824

 

I like the odds that this gets done

 

Haha yeah! I noticed my mistake shortly after I posted it. I was thinking 5% bonus on the slot, but it is 5% on the whole.

 

But yeah. I still think 7mil is near what we need and we are basically there. So, Frasso will probably come just under slot and Martin will sign for an even 7mil.

[BlueRocky]

I don't think you sign 3/5 of the players if you aren't pretty sure that you can sign your top pick.

 

I also think they have Martin’s number worked out. I guessed 7-7.5M on draft night, they’ll likely settle around 7-7.2 M, based on the amount of money left in the pool.

 

There’s only $7,454,825 left to sign both Martin and Frasso, inclusive of the 5% overslot. In this case, Martin will be getting about a million over slot value.

 

#5 value = $6,180,700

#106 value = $549,000

[Brownie19]

Good shout but he's still forever away, even relative to Groshans IMO. If everything goes perfectly (a big if) he's more of a #1 prospect kicking the door down when these guys are in year 2-4 of their MLB careers. An excellent problem to have if that's the case.

 

Fangraphs has his ETA as 2023 - same as Groshans, Kloff and SWR. Although I'm sure a couple of those guys will bust - can you imagine how exciting it would be to have Martinez, Groshans, Kloff and SWR all breaking in during the same season?

[Ray]

My guess is Frasso signs for about $250K. I can’t imagine Martin turning down $7.2M. That’s slot for #3 overall.

[Uneducatedfan]

Fangraphs has his ETA as 2023 - same as Groshans, Kloff and SWR. Although I'm sure a couple of those guys will bust - can you imagine how exciting it would be to have Martinez, Groshans, Kloff and SWR all breaking in during the same season?

 

It's a great position to be in. You always want talent coming down the pipeline to fill in the gaps and help if players get hurt/don't progress as expected.

 

As you say, a couple guys might bust. But even if we hit on one or two of them, we are pretty much set for years to come - hopefully, the busts are more on the position side of things than the pitching side.

 

I think 2021's offseason is shaping up to be a critical one for the Blue Jays. We are going to have a TON of space and I think we need one more starting pitcher and one proven position player to really become contenders for a WS. It will be interesting how free agency shakes out with the fallout of a shortened 2020 season and the possibility of a lockout. But I think Mookie Betts is the guy you go all-in for. He's basically a perfect fit for this team from every standpoint (age, position, hitting, leadership, and he's got a long history in the AL East). Then you see how the pitching market unfolds and try to get a solid middle of the rotation guy to add to Ryu and, hopefully, Pearson.

 

Then you ride that wave for the next couple seasons and keep adding talent as they develop. Which is much better from a sustainability perspective than trading for veterans.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-analysis-for-all-30-teams/#BlueJays

Toronto Blue Jays

 

1.5—SS Austin Martin (2)

2.42—RHP C.J. Van Eyk (46)

3.77—RHP Trent Palmer (165)

4.106—RHP Nick Frasso (107)

5.136—OF Zach Britton (192)

 

The Blue Jays got the steal of the draft by landing Martin with the fifth overall pick. We never imagined a scenario where the best pure hitter in the class lasted that long, and the Blue Jays should be thrilled to get him.

 

The rest of the class could be an afterthought and Toronto would still get great feedback, but the Blue Jays continued to get solid value. Van Eyk does a lot of things well and projects to start, while RHPs Palmer and Frasso have exciting upside if they can maintain their frames (Palmer) and stay healthy (Frasso) moving forward.

 

Taking Britton with the final selection gives the Blue Jays yet another solid bat—if very little defensive or positional value—and there doesn’t seem to be a money-saver in the group, despite getting a top-two talent to fall to No. 5. It’s hard to critique much of anything about this class, and it’s worth reiterating that you don’t have to search far to find scouts who thought Martin was the best player in the 2020 class.

[BlueRocky]

I think 2021's offseason is shaping up to be a critical one for the Blue Jays. We are going to have a TON of space and I think we need one more starting pitcher and one proven position player to really become contenders for a WS.

[Jimcanuck]

And a couple of better arms in the bullpen. Too bad about this season, this could have been the year a couple of solid bullpen arms emerged from the stockpile of back of the rotation arms the Jays have.

[P2F]

Did you guys see that Fangraphs has listed Austin Martin's AVG EV at 93 MPH? That would put him 23rd in all of MLB last season, basically on par with Yordan Alvarez at 92.8, Jose Abreu at 92.9, Matt Olson and Josh Bell at 93.2, and Jorge Soler at 93.3. f***ing LOL Orioles!

 

Edit: Martin apparently hits the ball harder on average than anyone in FG's Top 100.

Edited June 19, 2020 by P2F

[Slade]

Did you guys see that Fangraphs has listed Austin Martin's AVG EV at 93 MPH? That would put him 23rd in all of MLB last season, basically on par with Yordan Alvarez at 92.8, Jose Abreu at 92.9, Matt Olson and Josh Bell at 93.2, and Jorge Soler at 93.3. f***ing LOL Orioles!

 

Edit: Martin apparently hits the ball harder on average than anyone in FG's Top 100.

 

Where does that data even come from? College? Wood bat? He hasn't even faced pitching similar to what the top 100 has let alone comparing him to MLB hitters.

[Jimcanuck]

Where does that data even come from? College? Wood bat? He hasn't even faced pitching similar to what the top 100 has let alone comparing him to MLB hitters.

 

Not sure about this. He played in the most competitive college conference for baseball? The better pitchers in that conference would be A/A+ level pitching? Many of the players in the top 100 are at A+ ball or lower.

 

In any event, it would be better to assess his EV in relation to his college peers. That would give a better indication of the gap between Martin and other prospects.

[Ray]

 

Not sure I want anything to do with Paxton given his injury history.

 

Then again, we did just sign Ryu. But it'd be nice to have an arm that's a little more dependable.

 

I really hope we end up playing games this season and the young teams shows flashes of contention. It would go a long way in showing ownership to spend money on Betts.

[Jimcanuck]

But it'd be nice to have an arm that's a little more dependable.

 

I'm stumped. Teheran?

[Slade]

Not sure about this. He played in the most competitive college conference for baseball? The better pitchers in that conference would be A/A+ level pitching? Many of the players in the top 100 are at A+ ball or lower.

 

Even facing the best best competition in college, I don't even think that would be comparable to High Rookie ball.

[glory]

I'm stumped. Teheran?

 

Stro Show.

[BlueRocky]

Even facing the best best competition in college, I don't even think that would be comparable to High Rookie ball.

 

The best guys in SEC is probably better than MWL, but about the same level as FSL.

 

Typically the advanced college draft picks will debut around that level, and will move up to double-A if they rake.