GDT: MLB Draft, June 10, 2020

[BlueRocky]

Not sure I want anything to do with Paxton given his injury history.

 

Then again, we did just sign Ryu. But it'd be nice to have an arm that's a little more dependable.

 

Who do you have in mind?

 

Where James Paxton is only going to cost money, trade is another option, but a “Sale/Verlander” caliber trade would cost us significantly in the farm.

 

We’ll need pitching in 2021-2024 for sure if they are planning to compete. With expanded playoffs, they might not be that far off from being a playoff team.

[Slade]

The best guys in SEC is probably better than MWL, but about the same level as FSL.

 

Typically the advanced college draft picks will debut around that level, and will move up to double-A if they rake.

 

But we're talking overall talent. I'm not saying he wouldn't see good pitching but the vast majority of what he saw are going to be guys who never have a chance in pro ball.

[BlueRocky]

I wouldn’t agree that the overall talent of the SEC would be equivalent to High Rookie ball. A lot of these college programs are really advanced in both recruiting and development. They’re fully equipped with the type of tech available in the lower minors, and some programs like Vanderbilt do it even better than a lot of minor league teams. You have to be quite talented to be a starter or Ace in an SEC college program, so I have confidence that Martin can hit in the minors. Just to name a few SEC starters in upcoming and past drafts: Emerson Hancock, Cole Wilcox, Garrett Crochet, Carmen Mlodzinski, Asa Lacy, JT Ginn, Casey Mize, Tanner Burns, Zack Thompson, TJ Sikkema, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Ryan Rolison, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker.

 

The overall pitching talent Martin played is around MWL, which are usually guys that can at least locate a fastball and have one usable secondary. The names above are more advanced than that, but this is the caliber of talent he’s facing when we look at his obscene .392 batting average in 2019 as a sophomore. FSL is like taking all the best arms in the MWL and putting them in one league, that’s sorta how the graduation system works itself out. I wouldn’t quite compare SEC college to FSL but it’s not that far behind.

 

Guys down in rookie ball have very raw command, like we’re referring to kids fresh out of high school, like Kendall Williams who could’ve been a freshman and BP arm in Vanderbilt. Or guys a year removed from their IFA signing.

 

High Rookie refers to the Appy league, typically age 17-19 IFA signings, high school draftees, or late-round college guys. We had a good program running down in Bluefield, with guys like Ryan Sloniger (OPS 1.031 - 2019/38th round), Spencer Horwitz (OPS .866 - 2019/24th round), Miguel Hiraldo (OPS .829 - 2017 IFA 750K). These are already some of the better names, and you’re right 90% of the ones passing through GCL or Bluefield will never make it to double-A.

Edited June 19, 2020 by BlueRocky

[BlueRocky]

[BlueRocky]

Zac Veen was rumored near draft time he’s willing to sign for 5M, and did so with the Rockies. It would’ve been a nice under-slot deal at #5 had Martin not been available.

 

Would’ve changed the dynamic of the whole draft having an extra 1-2 M to spend, as a lot of guys in rd 2-5 ended up with over-slot deals.

 

But ultimately you can’t pass on an impact talent like Austin Martin.

Edited June 24, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Spanky99]

Zac Veen was rumored near draft time he’s be willing to sign for 5M, and did so with the Rockies. It would’ve been a nice under-slot deal at #5 had Martin not been available.

 

Would’ve changed the dynamic of the whole draft having an extra 1-2 M to spend, as a lot of guys in rd 2-5 ended up with over-slot deals.

 

But ultimately you can’t pass on an impact talent like Austin Martin.

 

No doubt, and I was really hoping for Veen. lol

[Krylian]

Zac Veen was rumored near draft time he’s be willing to sign for 5M, and did so with the Rockies. It would’ve been a nice under-slot deal at #5 had Martin not been available.

 

Would’ve changed the dynamic of the whole draft having an extra 1-2 M to spend, as a lot of guys in rd 2-5 ended up with over-slot deals.

 

But ultimately you can’t pass on an impact talent like Austin Martin.

 

Seriously! I was so hyped when it looked like it Veen was going to fall into our lap...only to have a choice between between Veen or Martin. They absolutely made the right choice...but it would've been interesting to see how the rest of the draft would've played out had Martin been gone and Veen was our guy for $5M.

[Slade]

Damn I am impressed with the Padres, they had a great draft and got Hassell for underslot.

[Orgfiller]

 

You gotta wonder the nature of some of these negotiations. Like was Asa Lacy's agent just dead set on $6000 more or he walks? "My client is going back to college for one more year if he doesn't get his dream gaming setup!"

[BlueRocky]

 

That extra $4 on Owen Caissie’s contract..

[Grant77]

You gotta wonder the nature of some of these negotiations. Like was Asa Lacy's agent just dead set on $6000 more or he walks? "My client is going back to college for one more year if he doesn't get his dream gaming setup!"

 

In cases where teams have signed all of their other players, they may simply offer the maximum amount. I expect that to be the case with Austin Martin.

[Orgfiller]

 

That extra $4 on Owen Caissie’s contract..

 

Elite negotiation from his agent.

[Captain Adama]

You gotta wonder the nature of some of these negotiations. Like was Asa Lacy's agent just dead set on $6000 more or he walks? "My client is going back to college for one more year if he doesn't get his dream gaming setup!"

 

He needed that third monitor

[Pendleton]

 

That extra $4 on Owen Caissie’s contract..

 

Two medium iced caps for $4 at Tims

[BlueRocky]

[Orgfiller]

 

I mean...duh? Advanced college pitcher who is already pegged as a top 100 prospect by most publications. Seems like a no-brainer to include him in the bunch along with their other top prospects.

[Boxcar]

You gotta wonder the nature of some of these negotiations. Like was Asa Lacy's agent just dead set on $6000 more or he walks? "My client is going back to college for one more year if he doesn't get his dream gaming setup!"

 

I liked the "consensus best pitcher in the draft, great metrics" part. Where he has basically a 2:1 k:BB. GR8 METRIKS

 

Crotch Rocket will be the best pitcher in this draft, bank on it

[metafour]

I liked the "consensus best pitcher in the draft, great metrics" part. Where he has basically a 2:1 k:BB. GR8 METRIKS

 

We're in 2020 - "pitching metrics" have nothing to do with K:BB rates lmao.

 

Were you the one in the Pre-Draft podcast who was pulling up K and BB rates as an actual scouting benchmark? The entire Asa Lacy segment of that podcast was horrendous. I think I also learned that "Max Meyer doesn't strike anyone out".

[Boxcar]

We're in 2020 - "pitching metrics" have nothing to do with K:BB rates lmao.

 

Were you the one in the Pre-Draft podcast who was pulling up K and BB rates as an actual scouting benchmark? The entire Asa Lacy segment of that podcast was horrendous. I think I also learned that "Max Meyer doesn't strike anyone out".

 

Perhaps you are too advanced for us. Try listening to Keith Law instead

[BlueRocky]

I liked the "consensus best pitcher in the draft, great metrics" part. Where he has basically a 2:1 k:BB. GR8 METRIKS

 

Crotch Rocket will be the best pitcher in this draft, bank on it

I never really understood the Asa Lacy hype, picking a college lefty that high while talent like Austin Martin was on the table didn’t make sense to me.

 

Highly picked college lefties (1-10) have historically not reached their hype from the draft.

David Price was the one exception but he was the first overall pick and a generational talent.

 

 

Year / #overall pick

2019: #7 Nick Lodolo - meh

2016: #6 A.J. Puk - undetermined

2015: #6 Tyler Jay - bust

2014: #3 Carlos Rodon - nope, not near the hype

2014: #8 Kyle Freeland - good

2012: #9 Andrew Heaney - bad

2011: #2 Danny Hultzen - bust

2010: #5 Drew Pomeranz - meh

2009: #7 Mike Minor - mostly bust, recently OK at age 31

2008: #4 Brian Matusz - bust

2007: #1 David Price - GOOD

2007: #4 Daniel Moskos - bust

2007: #6 Ross Detweiler - bust

[baubau]

I never really understood the Asa Lacy hype, picking a college lefty that high while talent like Austin Martin was on the table didn’t make sense to me.

 

Highly picked college lefties (1-10) have historically not reached their hype from the draft.

David Price was the one exception but he was the first overall pick and a generational talent.

 

 

Year / #overall pick

2019: #7 Nick Lodolo - meh

2016: #6 A.J. Puk - undetermined

2015: #6 Tyler Jay - bust

2014: #3 Carlos Rodon - nope, not near the hype

2014: #8 Kyle Freeland - good

2012: #9 Andrew Heaney - bad

2011: #2 Danny Hultzen - bust

2010: #5 Drew Pomeranz - meh

2009: #7 Mike Minor - mostly bust, recently OK at age 31

2008: #4 Brian Matusz - bust

2007: #1 David Price - GOOD

2007: #4 Daniel Moskos - bust

2007: #6 Ross Detweiler - bust

 

I don't know if I'd say Kyle Freeland is "good". He certainly had an exceptional 2018 but beyond that his FIP and xFIP have never been that appealing. Last year I think there was some bad luck, a 21.7% HR/FB rate compared to previous years of 12.5% and 8.5% seems extreme. He may be worth a deeper dive into but I'd say he's "meh".

 

 

And yes, I am that bored that I am just writing a post to talk to you about your word choice/semantics. Its been a long year, mkay!

[Captain Adama]

Even Kyle Freeland is pretty meh, he was due for major regression after his incredibly lucky 2018. He got that and then some.

 

Kyle Freeland is basically Ricky Romero

 

Whom you could add to that list as well.

 

Edit: f***ing Baubau got to that before me, damnit.

[metafour]

Perhaps you are too advanced for us. Try listening to Keith Law instead

 

Asa Lacy really bad.

Nick Gonzales really good.

 

He struck him out on 3 f***ing fastballs lmao. RHB vs. LHP.

[Scion]

We're in 2020 - "pitching metrics" have nothing to do with K:BB rates lmao.

 

Were you the one in the Pre-Draft podcast who was pulling up K and BB rates as an actual scouting benchmark? The entire Asa Lacy segment of that podcast was horrendous. I think I also learned that "Max Meyer doesn't strike anyone out".

 

I don't understand why you have to take a shot at their podcast. They do the best they can and it's actually very good for a relatively young show. They have also never pretended to be pro scouts, unlike yourself.

[Scion]

Perhaps you are too advanced for us. Try listening to Keith Law instead

 

Keep up the good work with the podcast, I find all of you very entertaining and insightful.

[P2F]

Asa Lacy really bad.

Nick Gonzales really good.

 

He struck him out on 3 f***ing fastballs lmao. RHB vs. LHP.

 

You've referenced this one plate appearance numerous times, like it holds any weight at all. It's one plate appearance!

 

Lacy may be better than Gonzales, but you acting like it's a slam dunk because Gonzo struck out one time against him is the most idiotic argument I've probably ever seen presented on this board.

 

Get off your high horse already.

[metafour]

I never really understood the Asa Lacy hype, picking a college lefty that high while talent like Austin Martin was on the table didn’t make sense to me.

 

Highly picked college lefties (1-10) have historically not reached their hype from the draft.

David Price was the one exception but he was the first overall pick and a generational talent.

 

Its the opposite for me: apart from the control concerns which are legitimate albeit hardly so concerning that it overwrites the entire package (especially considering that he was showing much improved control this year), I don't see how you can NOT see the hype. Its elite stuff and elite performance in the best conference in baseball; and he has absolutely dominated an entire slew of elite hitters that wound up as first round picks. His entire package would look elite if he was a RHP too, but he has the added bonus of also being a LHP. I think its lazy analysis to lump him in with a handful of LHP that failed and then make a blanket statement suggesting that there is some inherent flaw with drafting LHP highly. Yes, there IS a tendency of collegiate LHP being pushed up the board because they are LHP, but if you look at the actual stuff on top of the raw performance, you would be foolish to suggest that this is the case with Lacy. You state that David Price is an exception because he went 1st overall, but fail to consider that Lacy was playing so well prior to the season being cancelled that he actually had a real shot of working into 1st overall discussion (Detroit's 2nd option behind Torkelson was also strongly rumored to be Lacy, not Martin or anyone else). I'm not suggesting that Asa Lacy is David Price, but he's certainly in a completely different stratosphere to Tyler Jay, or frankly all of the other names on that list you named.

 

When you look at the H/9, SO/9, and even HR/9 comparisons of Lacy vs. say Hancock, you immediately see how much more electric Lacy's stuff actually is.

[metafour]

You've referenced this one plate appearance numerous times, like it holds any weight at all. It's one plate appearance!

 

Lacy may be better than Gonzales, but you acting like it's a slam dunk because Gonzo struck out one time against him is the most idiotic argument I've probably ever seen presented on this board.

 

Get off your high horse already.

 

Its a joke comment which is meant to parody the overly simplistic reasoning that was brought up as "analysis" for why Asa Lacy supposedly isn't good (a conclusion which isn't even true by any measure of comparison). Thats kinda the entire point: if Nick Gonzales is such an elite hitter, and Asa Lacy supposedly isn't any good...how are you gonna strike out on three straight fastballs?

 

If you want a bigger sample size of performance against recognizable talents...as per Mason McRae:

 

"Asa Lacy has faced JJ Bleday, Justin Foscue, Nick Gonzales, Austin Martin, Kam Misner, Andrew Vaughn, and Jordan Westburg at Texas A&M.

 

The 7 Hitters are a combined 1 for 17, with 0 XBH, and a .259 OPS, and a 30.0 K%, 15.0 BB%. He dominated 7 First Round Talents."

[BlueRocky]

I don't know if I'd say Kyle Freeland is "good". He certainly had an exceptional 2018 but beyond that his FIP and xFIP have never been that appealing. Last year I think there was some bad luck, a 21.7% HR/FB rate compared to previous years of 12.5% and 8.5% seems extreme. He may be worth a deeper dive into but I'd say he's "meh".

 

 

And yes, I am that bored that I am just writing a post to talk to you about your word choice/semantics. Its been a long year, mkay!

 

This is fair, and he’s probably a meh. I wasn’t looking too deep into it, but my point was that list is pretty awful. The historical return on hyped college LHP has not been a good investment. The HS LHP crops has some hits though like Kershaw. It just show how wild the drafts can be.

 

I was really hoping for a position player this draft and we somehow got the best case scenario. No complains here.

[Boxcar]

Its a joke comment which is meant to parody the overly simplistic reasoning that was brought up as "analysis" for why Asa Lacy supposedly isn't good (a conclusion which isn't even true by any measure of comparison). Thats kinda the entire point: if Nick Gonzales is such an elite hitter, and Asa Lacy supposedly isn't any good...how are you gonna strike out on three straight fastballs?

 

If you want a bigger sample size of performance against recognizable talents...as per Mason McRae:

 

K, so you like Asa Lacy. That's ok.