Around Baseball 2020

[Laika]

Honestly I am going to lose my mind if baseball Twitter continues to be dominated by idiots who think that the entire system is broken every time a team makes a financially motivated move.

 

Rays trade Snell - it's a disgrace for the sport.

 

Big market Cubs trade Darvish - the sport is broken. Burn it down.

 

Do these idiots realize that for every sad fan there is a happy fan? The Padres fans think the sport is perfect right now.

[connorp]

If that's the cost for Darvish, Bryant must be peanuts.

 

Yeah but asset management- why sell Bryant for peanuts. Cubs haven’t punted season yet. He could play and be near elite again and A) Help them make playoff run or Be a Machado-like trade chip at the deadline.

Worst case he’s not good and you can still flip him for same peanuts at deadline.. just will cost some money but they’re not TAM and still a division contender.

 

Yu was sold at high value. His age and money owed just made it where it was risky giving up Top prospects... also 12 team no trade list hampered things I’m sure

[saskjayfan]

He's 34. If he's a free agent right now how much more does he get than the 3/$60 he's currently owed? I would guess a bit higher AAV and one more year.

 

He's great and he has value but it's not like Blake Snell trade value or really anything close to it.

 

I think the Cubs did okay. They got a bulk package of solid prospects from a deep system. I think they'll like this in hindsight even if none of the players really go bananas.

 

He's 34 and his velocity ticked up last year and his walk rate was a career low. He could double up on what he did last year and provide fantastic value. I think he's capable of 5 to 6 wins next year. I just like Darvish. I could be wrong. I think this was a great deal for San Diego.

 

The Jays have money to spend. There's still targets out there. We need to land some.

[Laika]

For people who think the Darvish deal sucks for the Cubs, at least think about the comparable Toronto offer.

 

Yeison Santana - 45 FV SS with 2022 ETA - closest comparable is Gabriel Moreno (45 FV C)

Reginald Preciedo - 40+ FV 3B with 2022 ETA - closest comparable is Miguel Hiraldo (40+ FV 3B)

Owen Caissie - 35+ FV OF with 2025 ETA - closest comparable is Tanner Morris (35+ FV OF)

Ismael Mena - 40 FV OF with 2025 ETA - closest comparable is Dasan Brown or Estiven Machado (both 40 FV bats)

 

Those are just Fangraphs' rankings from the 2020 season update.

 

And maybe Zach Davies has a sliver of value on top of that.

 

Who is moving Moreno + Hiraldo + Brown/Machado + Morris for Darvish and his contract?

[saskjayfan]

For people who think the Darvish deal sucks for the Cubs, at least think about the comparable Toronto offer.

 

Yeison Santana - 45 FV SS with 2022 ETA - closest comparable is Gabriel Moreno (45 FV C)

Reginald Preciedo - 40+ FV 3B with 2022 ETA - closest comparable is Miguel Hiraldo (40+ FV 3B)

Owen Caissie - 35+ FV OF with 2025 ETA - closest comparable is Tanner Morris (35+ FV OF)

Ismael Mena - 40 FV OF with 2025 ETA - closest comparable is Dasan Brown or Estiven Machado (both 40 FV bats)

 

Those are just Fangraphs' rankings from the 2020 season update.

 

And maybe Zach Davies has a sliver of value on top of that.

 

Who is moving Moreno + Hiraldo + Brown/Machado + Morris for Darvish and his contract?

 

Sign me up. I'd do that deal for Darvish.

[Laika]

Sign me up. I'd do that deal for Darvish.

 

What if some of those pieces are being floated for Lindor, and the Darvish deal is sort of setting the market for a Lindor trade (really good player on an expensive contract)....

[THANOS]

What if some of those pieces are being floated for Lindor, and the Darvish deal is sort of setting the market for a Lindor trade (really good player on an expensive contract)....

 

I would do that deal too, even though I love Moreno. That's very light to me. I was thinking it would take something like below to land Darvish becaue of the 3 years of control and last 20 or so starts dating back to 2019.

 

LGJ, Hiraldo, Kay

 

Now I'm thinking above and maybe a couple sweeteners like Pardinho and Adams, could net us Lindor & Carrasco.

[THANOS]

And I would do that right now if it's possible. No need to even wait on Springer, because we could always go after Brantley to replenish LGJ if Springer signs with NYM.

[saskjayfan]

I would do that deal too, even though I love Moreno. That's very light to me. I was thinking it would take something like below to land Darvish becaue of the 3 years of control and last 20 or so starts dating back to 2019.

 

LGJ, Hiraldo, Kay

 

Now I'm thinking above and maybe a couple sweeteners like Pardinho and Adams, could net us Lindor & Carrasco.

 

Trading LGJ scares me. This kid can hit. I don't think last year was his best offensive year. Trading a guy who could be 40 to 50 percent better than league average with his bat when he makes 5 mil a year just seems wrong. Carrasco has to be included in the deal for me if we're trading LGJ.

[Grant77]

For people who think the Darvish deal sucks for the Cubs, at least think about the comparable Toronto offer.

 

Yeison Santana - 45 FV SS with 2022 ETA - closest comparable is Gabriel Moreno (45 FV C)

Reginald Preciedo - 40+ FV 3B with 2022 ETA - closest comparable is Miguel Hiraldo (40+ FV 3B)

Owen Caissie - 35+ FV OF with 2025 ETA - closest comparable is Tanner Morris (35+ FV OF)

Ismael Mena - 40 FV OF with 2025 ETA - closest comparable is Dasan Brown or Estiven Machado (both 40 FV bats)

 

Those are just Fangraphs' rankings from the 2020 season update.

 

And maybe Zach Davies has a sliver of value on top of that.

 

Who is moving Moreno + Hiraldo + Brown/Machado + Morris for Darvish and his contract?

 

Replace Moreno with another 45 FV like Kay and I would do that. Let's call Caritini and Davies a wash to make this easy.

[G-Snarls]

How much longer will K. Bryant be a Cub?

 

For some reason this post made me miss Kobe

[Spanky__99]

Reading way too far between the lines - I bet Dinelson Lamet needs TJS or shoulder surgery

 

Sell hard in fantasy!!!

 

I'm getting the same vibe, we'll see.

[Brownie19]

Replace Moreno with another 45 FV like Kay and I would do that. Let's call Caritini and Davies a wash to make this easy.

 

I'd be fine with Kay, Hiraldo, Brown and Morris for Darvish also....but I'm not sure Davies and Caritini is a wash. Davies was really good last year (although yes, the Cubs only get him for 1 year).

[Olerud363]

Trading LGJ scares me. This kid can hit. I don't think last year was his best offensive year. Trading a guy who could be 40 to 50 percent better than league average with his bat when he makes 5 mil a year just seems wrong. Carrasco has to be included in the deal for me if we're trading LGJ.

 

I don't understand why everyone wants to trade LGJ. He is essentially already the expected outcome of Kim. Both are projected about the same next year.

 

Is it because Kim has untapped potential and could develop even more then the projection??

 

Gurriel has been a 3-4 WAR player the last couple of years projected over 160... What if Gurriel took another step forward?? Or maybe he'll outperform the projection doing his 2019/2020 over 150 games instead of 70ish.

 

Gurriel is also on a cheaper contract then Kim got.

[Spanky__99]

I'd be fine with Kay, Hiraldo, Brown and Morris for Darvish also....but I'm not sure Davies and Caritini is a wash. Davies was really good last year (although yes, the Cubs only get him for 1 year).

 

Certainly not a wash.

[Spanky__99]

I don't understand why everyone wants to trade LGJ. He is essentially already the expected outcome of Kim. Both are projected about the same next year.

 

Is it because Kim has untapped potential and could develop even more then the projection??

 

Gurriel has been a 3-4 WAR player the last couple of years projected over 160... What if Gurriel took another step forward?? Or maybe he'll outperform the projection doing his 2019/2020 over 150 games instead of 70ish.

 

Gurriel is also on a cheaper contract then Kim got.

 

What does that have to do with Kim? The only time I've seen Gurriel being traded is for Lindor with an extension, and or Carrasco.

 

I for one don't want to trade Lourdes, I don't think many do, or am I wrong?

[BTS]

People are only suggesting Gurriel as a trade chip because he has value, but also has a replaceable skill set. Above-average but not elite offense, average baserunning, and average LF defense. Nice player, but someone you're probably not going to miss a whole lot if you have a chance to move him as the major piece for an elite player.

[saskjayfan]

People are only suggesting Gurriel as a trade chip because he has value, but also has a replaceable skill set. Above-average but not elite offense, average baserunning, and average LF defense. Nice player, but someone you're probably not going to miss a whole lot if you have a chance to move him as the major piece for an elite player.

 

He was 2nd on the Jays in wRC+ and 29th in the entire league last year. 138 is bordering on elite. It's how you view him. Is he on a trajectory to improve on this or sustain these levels or was it a small sample size and you expect him to be more like a 115 wRC+ guy? This guy hit at the end of 2019 on one leg when he came back from a hamstring injury and had no business being in the lineup. I feel like he can be 35% plus better than league average.

 

You can't ignore the 5 mil price tag. It's not easy getting a top 30 hitter for 5 mil, especially one who can hold down a position. Sign DJ for 20 and keep Gurriel and I think you're stronger than getting Lindor for 20 this year, 30 next year and giving up prospects on top of that.

[connorp]

He was 2nd on the Jays in wRC+ and 29th in the entire league last year. 138 is bordering on elite. It's how you view him. Is he on a trajectory to improve on this or sustain these levels or was it a small sample size and you expect him to be more like a 115 wRC+ guy? This guy hit at the end of 2019 on one leg when he came back from a hamstring injury and had no business being in the lineup. I feel like he can be 35% plus better than league average.

 

You can't ignore the 5 mil price tag. It's not easy getting a top 30 hitter for 5 mil, especially one who can hold down a position. Sign DJ for 20 and keep Gurriel and I think you're stronger than getting Lindor for 20 this year, 30 next year and giving up prospects on top of that.

 

Yeah bro. Agreed. Trading good players with great value for the privilege of giving Lindor 10/280 or something. No thx

[Spanky__99]

It all comes down to the price tag, they might insist on another main-piece other than LGJ, who knows!

[King]

 

What the f***? This is the worst 3-way deal I've ever seen.

[Spanky__99]

 

What the f***? This is the worst 3-way deal I've ever seen.

 

I was just going to post this trade, lol... WTF is right.

[jays4life19]

I absolutely love this trade for the Dodgers. Game changer.

[BTS]

He was 2nd on the Jays in wRC+ and 29th in the entire league last year. 138 is bordering on elite. It's how you view him. Is he on a trajectory to improve on this or sustain these levels or was it a small sample size and you expect him to be more like a 115 wRC+ guy? This guy hit at the end of 2019 on one leg when he came back from a hamstring injury and had no business being in the lineup. I feel like he can be 35% plus better than league average.

 

You can't ignore the 5 mil price tag. It's not easy getting a top 30 hitter for 5 mil, especially one who can hold down a position. Sign DJ for 20 and keep Gurriel and I think you're stronger than getting Lindor for 20 this year, 30 next year and giving up prospects on top of that.

 

I know he was great in 2020, but his xWOBA was 0.331, well below his 0.366 wOBA. I see a player who's going to be about league average on a very team friendly contract. If you see a 3-4 win player there, than yeah, he carries huge value.

[Frenchsoup]

People are only suggesting Gurriel as a trade chip because he has value, but also has a replaceable skill set. Above-average but not elite offense, average baserunning, and average LF defense. Nice player, but someone you're probably not going to miss a whole lot if you have a chance to move him as the major piece for an elite player.

 

Avg lf defense lol

[Olerud363]

I know he was great in 2020, but his xWOBA was 0.331, well below his 0.366 wOBA. I see a player who's going to be about league average on a very team friendly contract. If you see a 3-4 win player there, than yeah, he carries huge value.

 

He's played at a 3-4 win level for the last 2 years... albeit only 143 games.

 

Reason he is over-rated - haven't looked into it, but I guess you are saying his batted ball data is not as good as his results, indicating results may not be sustainable.

 

Reason he is under-rated - arguably he went through an adjustment to North America in 2017 and 2018, so his 2019/20 is more indicative of real ability.

 

Reason 2 is fuzzy, but so are the reasons Kim will be good. Both are projected as 2 win players right now. One is cheaper.

[Jays24]

What does that have to do with Kim? The only time I've seen Gurriel being traded is for Lindor with an extension, and or Carrasco.

 

I for one don't want to trade Lourdes, I don't think many do, or am I wrong?

 

I think it only makes any sense if we signed someone like Springer. You move Grichuk to Gurriel's spot and we have an extremely well balanced team. Other than getting Springer, trading Gurriel makes no sense.

[G-Snarls]

Now Smoak is going to Japan

 

Getting over 6M

 

Wow. Would he have even got a major league deal worth a third of that here at this point?

Edited December 29, 2020 by G-Snarls

[Spanky__99]

I think it only makes any sense if we signed someone like Springer. You move Grichuk to Gurriel's spot and we have an extremely well balanced team. Other than getting Springer, trading Gurriel makes no sense.

 

No, you don't trade Gurriel because we signed Springer, Grichuk would be our 4th OF.

[Jays24]

No, you don't trade Gurriel because we signed Springer, Grichuk would be our 4th OF.

 

I would prioritize getting a franchise SS over having a 10 million dollar 4th OFer. Just seems like a better allocation of our resources if we get Springer. Also improves our defense all around dramatically, not to mention our batting/base running. Biggio could be our 4th OFer when needed.