Around Baseball 2020

[Grant77]

Why'd you quote me? I don't seem to connect it, I'm fine with what the Jays do, certainly if they do anything similar to your suggestion.

 

I didn't even notice and I'm not sure why. I didn't mean to!

[Grant77]

My wish list is signing Springer, trading for Lindor or even Bryant and then signing a guy like Paxton. Just want 2 impact positional players (preferably at CF or SS/3B).

 

If we end up with Bradley and Kim as our big moves, I'll consider a huge disappointment.

 

Bradley, Kim, and Paxton with bullpen and bench moves would make me happy, but I can understand why your expectations are high.

[Laika]

On this subject of terrible organizations...

 

Rockies analytics department gutted by departures, widening the Coors Field gap

 

By Nick Groke and Eno Sarris

 

The Rockies in recent weeks suffered a mass exodus from their analytics department, dealing a double whammy to a club already slashing player payroll for next season.

 

According to multiple sources, four of the six members of the Rockies’ research and development team have left since the end of last season, essentially knee-capping an analytics department that was already among the smallest and least effective in baseball.

 

Most of those who departed left for jobs outside of baseball. The Rockies remain one of few teams who have not forced layoffs or furloughs on their employees, a source said. But that has not saved them from feeling the effects of the pandemic.

 

Rockies owner Dick Monfort has positioned his club for an extended period of financial contraction, telling season ticket-holders in an October letter that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality. … each club will have to adjust.”

 

So far, the Rockies non-tendered three popular players, including a surprise decision to jettison outfielder David Dahl last week along with his relatively small salary, which was projected to be about $2.6 million next season.

 

Their cost-cutting has pushed Nolan Arenado’s future back to the forefront, increasing the possibility that he could be traded as early as this winter before he is able to opt-out of his long-term contract after next season. And now Trevor Story, too, seems to be available in trade. As the Rockies’ third-highest-paid player after Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, Story would present them another opportunity to cut costs before he becomes a free agent after next season.

 

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the Rockies are now potentially dealing with another widening competitive gap in their analytics department. It is a team led by assistant general manager Zack Rosenthal and his lieutenant, Domenic Di Ricco, both of whom remain with the club. But just two of the six researchers below them who were with the team last year still remain to continue the work.

 

Some Rockies players have grumbled in recent seasons about a lack of available resources in their attempt to overcome Coors Field and its inherent disadvantages. When they approached the front office for help, those players were often turned away by an analytics team overwhelmed with other duties.

 

Blackmon last year grew so frustrated by the difficulty of adjusting to hitting on the road after leaving Coors Field, he devised a plan on his own to help hit better on road trips. Together with hitting coach Dave Magadan, they blueprinted an idea to cure the so-called “Coors Field hangover,” an effect that often sees the Rockies struggle at the plate over the first game or more on road trips, as pitches move differently at sea level compared to the thin air and high elevation in Denver.

 

“I was doing this for me. And like, hey, it works for me. Maybe it’ll work for someone else,” Blackmon said in March after testing his theory over the second half of 2019. “And now that we’re in spring training, we can look back and we have the whole season of numbers to look at and evaluate. And there’s clearly something to it.”

 

Those ideas, though, were left to Blackmon and manager Bud Black’s staff to figure out mostly on their own.

 

Even before this recent round of resignations, the Rockies’ R&D squad was among the three or four smallest in the league. Back in 2018, The Athletic reported that only the White Sox, Athletics, and Mets had fewer full-time analysts, and after a current appraisal of those three teams, it seems that they’re all larger than it appeared then. The A’s and White Sox, as examples, have somewhere between four and six analysts now, and the Mets have more than that.

 

The relative sizes of each R&D team may not be static for very long, as there’s possibly a brain drain coming to baseball. Between pandemic-related layoffs and some of the structural concerns for analysts that have eschewed higher-paying jobs in an often futile attempt to advance with baseball’s front offices, it seems that baseball may have a hard time retaining their analysts, and that may have played a part here.

 

“The retention rate is going to be lower,” a former senior analytics member told R.J. Anderson at CBS Sports, “not the acquisition rate — the acquisition rate is probably going to be the same, in terms of analytics and smart people and whatever — but the retention rate is going to be abysmal in the end.”

 

But no matter how many moving parts there are, and what the reasons might be, the consensus is clear that the Rockies’ R&D team is now the smallest in the big leagues. And that’s not good. Rob Arthur at Baseball Prospectus found a strong relationship between the size of a team’s R&D department and the number of wins that team put up.

 

It may not be the strongest correlation you’ve ever seen, but one this tight is remarkable considering it doesn’t take into consideration anything else about the teams other than the number of full-time analysts.

 

Without this year’s Winter Meetings as a hiring locale, the process may be difficult. But it will still be important for the Rockies to add analysts quickly, if only to return to the bottom of the scale.

 

In Anderson’s piece about the brain drain in baseball, an oft-cited reason was a feeling from some that their voice wasn’t being heard within baseball’s rapidly expanding front offices. Is it possible that was at play here? There’s not a lot of evidence that the Rockies’ front office was engaging with some of the more accepted advances in modern baseball.

 

Take the launch-angle revolution or the simple revelation that you have to lift the ball to hit homers, and a homer is the best thing a hitter can do.

 

Here’s how the Rockies rank in average launch angle in the Statcast era:

 

And though there’s been some advancement in this regard — the Rockies’ launch angle in 2020 was their best in the era — there hasn’t been when it comes to other aspects of the game today, especially when it comes to pitching. Teams everywhere are throwing fastballs less often, replacing them with sliders, and when they throw fastballs they are throwing them higher in the zone. The Rockies are doing none of that.

 

 

 

Of course, the Rockies have a unique situation with that park, and they may want to have a different approach. But it is remarkable that they seem to be playing baseball from another decade right when most of their R&D team decided to up and leave the sport.

 

At least when it comes to pitching strategy, it’s fair to point out that the park has its own say in the matter. Breaking pitches don’t break as well in Coors, so Rockies pitchers, as well as visiting pitchers, throw more fastballs and fewer breaking balls in response. Hard to get mad at them for not throwing more breaking balls if they don’t break, but the lack of high fastballs has meant that since 2015 the Rockies are 25th in strikeout rate, and… well, balls in play do very well in Coors, too. They should probably try to get strikeouts, and pitchers like Jon Gray in particular could do much better with some high fastballs in the mix, especially since his slider has been proven effective even at altitude.

 

But think about how it would go if Gray was with the Rays. You just know what they’d do — they’d have him throw a ton of sliders, a ton of high fastballs, and make the most of his stuff in short bursts before the bullpen came in. The Rays have a different obstacle than the Rockies — theirs is financial — but they’ve shown the willingness to innovate their way through the problem to the point that they’ve changed baseball as we know it. By being out in front when it comes to trends like starting pitcher usage, reliever usage and outfield shifting, they’ve prevented runs with the best of them, despite a small budget.

 

On the other end, we have the Rockies: a team who once tried, for a moment, a four-man rotation thing that didn’t go well. And then there was an attempt to improve the bullpen, mostly through free-agent acquisitions of post-peak pitchers who struggled with Coors. Other than that, we haven’t seen much on-field innovation.

 

They could be doing some great things behind the scenes with rest and recovery — Adam Ottavino loved the nap room, which became a permanent fixture after he left — but in terms of on-field play, the innovation hasn’t been there. And it seems safe to assume that the R&D specialists had some ideas for what the team could do to deal with a park so extreme that it caused one team analyst to say that the Rockies had to have a 90-win true talent team to win 82 games.

 

Maybe, if you spend a few years — at a salary below what you could achieve in another field — trying to get your ideas onto the field unsuccessfully, maybe then you sigh, take the phone call from a tech company and eventually change your LinkedIn profile and move on.

[King]

On this subject of terrible organizations...

Rockies making a solid case for worst organization in baseball. They are a team with pretty much no hope, or path to winning. Farm system looks pretty gross lots of 1B-types in their top 10.

 

They should probably strip it down and trade Story, Marquez and Arenado.

 

 

Just look at this mess. It makes me want to puke. That's a lot of PA's to below replacement level hacks.

[Laika]

Yeah they have to go scorched earth - I see no other way, especially in that division where the Padres will be good for years.

[King]

Yeah they have to go scorched earth - I see no other way, especially in that division where the Padres will be good for years.

And then the problem is that the front office is so bad I don't think you could trust them to do a proper rebuild. They will need to get some lucky hits with some prospects or have a complete FO change to turn that shipwreck around. Big yikes!

[Jimcanuck]

Moving Arenado, Story, Marquez would accelerate a Rockies rebuild, but not enough O2 gets to the brain in Denver.

[King]

Moving Arenado, Story, Marquez would accelerate a Rockies rebuild, but not enough O2 gets to the brain in Denver.

It doesn't really seem like there's indication that a trade of any of those three is on the table. The Rockies are just spinning tires. Remember, they obviously need to give more playing time to their glut of outfielders to see what they have in them.

[Laika]

And then the problem is that the front office is so bad I don't think you could trust them to do a proper rebuild. They will need to get some lucky hits with some prospects or have a complete FO change to turn that shipwreck around. Big yikes!

 

Scorched earth needs to include the front office and probably ownership. Sell the whole team.

 

A lot of the Rockies terrible FA signings in past years smell like ownership meddling, at least to me...

[Jays24]

Bradley, Kim, and Paxton with bullpen and bench moves would make me happy, but I can understand why your expectations are high.

 

In a normal year, id be with you but with all the stars aligning and our management just adding more fuel to the fired, expectations are sky high lol.

[Brownie19]

My wish list is signing Springer, trading for Lindor or even Bryant and then signing a guy like Paxton. Just want 2 impact positional players (preferably at CF or SS/3B).

 

If we end up with Bradley and Kim as our big moves, I'll consider a huge disappointment.

 

You should prepare to be disappointed then.

[Jays24]

You should prepare to be disappointed then.

 

Story of my life lol

[King]

Scorched earth needs to include the front office and probably ownership. Sell the whole team.

 

A lot of the Rockies terrible FA signings in past years smell like ownership meddling, at least to me...

 

Rockies offseasons in review:

2020 (last offseason) - signed Jose Mujica (that's the entire list)

2019 - gave 24 mil to Daniel Murphy

2018 - committed $100+ million to Jake McGee, Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw (all sucked), gave Carlos Gonzalez 1y/5m (below replacement level), gave 2y/8.5 to Chris Iannetta (sucked then retired)

2017 - Ian Desmond 5/70 (terrible), Mike Dunn 3/19 (terrible), Greg Holland 1/7 (sucked), Alexei Amarista 1/2m (-1.1 fWAR in less than 200 PA)

2016 - Gerardo Parra 3/27 (negative war player, again), Jason Motte 2/10 (sucked), Chad Qualls 2/6 (sucked), Mark Reynolds 1/2.6

 

2015 - can't find much, signed Daniel Descalso and stood pat it seems like

2014 - Justin Morneau 2/12.5, LaTroy Hawkins 1/2.5, Boone Logan 3/16

2013 - Jeff Francis 1/1.5, Jon Harland 1/500k

2012 - Michael Cuddyer 3/31, Ramon Heranndez 2/7, Jason Giambi 1/1

2011 - Jorge De La Rosa 3/32, Ty Wigginton 2/8

2010 - Rafael Betancourt 2/8, Miguel Olivo 1/3, Jason Giambi 1/2, Melvin Mora 1/1

 

Like, what is even going on here? This is an embarrassment lol. They just keep throwing big money at s***** relievers and below replacement level position players.

 

Trade wise they've basically done nothing notable in the offseason since 2016 when they acquired the prospect version of German Marquez for Corey Dickerson.

Edited December 10, 2020 by King

[L54]

The Rockies could literally hire half of BJMB and be better off than they are now

[Carlos Danger]

The Rockies could literally hire half of BJMB and be better off than they are now

 

I would have picked Zac Veen for them for the cost of a bucket of beer and twenty wings in the hospitality sweet at Coors.

[Jimcanuck]

Rule 5 Draft Notables:

 

UNPROTECTED HIGH SCHOOL PICKS

Year Rd. Pick Team Player Pos.

2016 1 4 Rockies Riley Pint RHP

2016 1 14 Indians Will Benson OF

2016 1 23 Cardinals Delvin Perez SS

2016 1 30 Rangers Cole Ragans LHP

2016 2 42 Phillies Kevin Gowdy RHP

2016 2 50 Mariners Joe Rizzo 3B

2016 2 52 Diamondbacks Andy Yerzy C

2016 2 63 Rangers Alex Speas RHP

2016 2 68 Pirates Travis MacGregor RHP

2016 2s 73 Twins Jose Miranda SS

2016 2s 74 Twins Akil Baddoo OF

2016 3 78 Phillies Cole Stobbe SS

2016 3 79 Reds Nick Hanson RHP

2016 3 84 Marlins Thomas Jones OF

2016 3 90 Rays Austin Franklin RHP

2016 3 98 Yankees Nolan Martinez RHP

2016 3 99 Rangers Kole Enright 3B

UNPROTECTED COLLEGE PICKS

Year Rd. Pick Team Player Pos.

2017 1 22 Blue Jays Logan Warmoth SS

2017 1 23 Dodgers Jeren Kendall OF

2017 1 27 Cubs Brendon Little LHP

2017 1s 33 Athletics Kevin Merrell SS

2017 1s 36 Marlins Brian Miller OF

2017 2 44 Diamondbacks Drew Ellis 3B

2017 2 51 Marlins Joe Dunand 3B

2017 2 57 Tigers Rey Rivera OF

2017 2 62 Dodgers Morgan Cooper RHP

2017 2s 73 Royals Evan Steele LHP

2017 2s 75 Astros J.J. Matijevic 2B

2017 3 84 Brewers K.J. Harrison C

2017 3 86 Rockies Will Gaddis RHP

2017 3 88 Pirates Dylan Busby 3B

2017 3 89 Marlins Riley Mahan 2B

2017 3 92 Yankees Trevor Stephan RHP

2017 3 94 Cardinals Scott Hurst OF

2017 3 95 Tigers Joey Morgan C

2017 3 97 Mets Quinn Brodey OF

2017 3 101 Red Sox Brett Netzer 2B

2017 3 103 Nationals Nick Raquet LHP

2017 3 104 Rangers Matt Whatley C

 

 

Riley Pint in 2019 walked 31 batters and threw 18 wild pitches in 17.2 innings. Yikes.

[G-Snarls]

Major League Phase

 

Round 1

 

1) Pirates: Jose Soriano, RHP (Angels)

2) Rangers: Brett de Geus, RHP (Dodgers)

3) Tigers: Akil Baddoo, OF (Twins)

4) Red Sox: Garrett Whitlock, RHP (Yankees)

5) Orioles: Mac Sceroler, RHP (Reds)

6) D-backs: Zach Pop, RHP (Orioles)

7) Rockies: Jordan Sheffield, RHP (Dodgers)

8) Angels: Jose Rivera, RHP (Astros)

9) Mets: Luis Oviedo, RHP (Indians)

10) Mariners: Will Vest, RHP (Tigers)

11) Phillies: Kyle Holder, SS (Yankees)

12) Giants: Dedniel Nunez, RHP (Mets)

13) Marlins: Paul Campbell, RHP (Rays)

14) Cubs: Gray Fenter, RHP (Orioles)

15) Indians: Trevor Stephan, RHP (Yankees)

16) A's: Ka'ai Tom, CF (Indians)

 

Round 2

 

17) Orioles: Tyler Wells, RHP (Twins)

18) A's: Dany Jimenez, RHP (Blue Jays)

[G-Snarls]

Triple-A Phase

 

Round 1

 

1) Pirates: Shea Spitzbarth, RHP (Dodgers)

2) Rangers: Matthew Wivinis, RHP (Yankees)

3) Tigers: Yunior Perez, RHP (Cubs)

4) Red Sox: Tyreque Reed, 1B (Rangers)

5) Orioles: Rickey Ramirez, RHP (Twins)

6) D-backs: Tyler Gilbert, LHP (Dodgers)

7) Angels: Brendon Davis, SS (Rangers)

8) Mets: Andrew Ferguson, CF (Astros)

9) Mariners: Amador Arias, 2B (Rays)

10) Giants: Vince Fernandez, OF (Rockies)

11) Astros: Joe Record, RHP (Twins)

12) Marlins: Jake Fishman, LHP (Blue Jays)

13) Reds: Errol Robinson, SS (Dodgers)

14) Cardinals: Garrett Williams, LHP (Angels)

15) Blue Jays: Sebastian Espino, SS (Mets)

[Orgfiller]

Cleveland could make something out of Trevor Stephan. Good K/BB numbers, will be 25 to start the next season. He might have some issues with the running game or lobbing up meatballs looking at his MiLB BABIP and LOB%.

[G-Snarls]

Espino minor league stats. 20 year old Dominican born infielder.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=espino000seb

[jerb]

 

Jayson Stark

@jaysonst

 

BREAKING: The #Phillies are in the advanced stages of talks to hire Dave Dombrowski as their new president of baseball ops, sources told @TheAthleticMLB. https://t.co/cY8FOhYtIl?amp=1

[L54]

Lol how does that guy continue to get jobs?

 

Anyone with veterans to sell will be calling PHI pronto

[G-Snarls]

Lol how does that guy continue to get jobs?

 

Anyone with veterans to sell will be calling PHI pronto

 

He'll insist on retaining Realmuto for over 100 million dollars

[G-Snarls]

[glory]

Dombrowski's first move will be to sign Harper to a 3 year extension so that his contract ends in 2034 instead of 2031.

[Laika]

So weird. The Phillies look like a current product of Dombroski, not a team that would be looking to hire him.

[King]

Rays are trading Nate Lowe to the Rangers

[G-Snarls]

So weird. The Phillies look like a current product of Dombroski, not a team that would be looking to hire him.

 

They might as well have just re-hired Ruben Amaro Jr

[G-Snarls]

Rays are trading Nate Lowe to the Rangers

 

The Rangers are set to acquire first baseman Nate Lowe from the Tampa Bay Rays for catcher Heriberto Hernandez and other prospects, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

[Grant77]

The Rangers are set to acquire first baseman Nate Lowe from the Tampa Bay Rays for catcher Heriberto Hernandez and other prospects, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

 

Quite the impressive stats for that young catcher.