General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[TheDragon]

Seems like he's swinging out of the zone more and producing less hard contact.

 

Regression to the mean?

[Boxcar]

It makes you wonder how much structural damage could have been avoided if Giles was immediately removed during that outing in Tampa Bay.

 

And the thing last year. I don't remember the specific details but it was something like Giles being hurt, coming back, and immediately throwing back-to-backs and getting hurt again.

 

How much possible value did Charlie Montoyo single handedly destroy in the Giles situation?

 

I'm having a hard time grappling with the possibility that Atkins doesn't think this guy is a complete f***ing moron.

[max silver]

I'm not here to to knock your post but what happened to his "impressive changes"? Did he stop barreling and line-driving? IMO Grichuk has prone to hot streaks, it's just who he is, you could say this about all players but Grichuk is a more extreme example.

 

He was hitting the s*** out of the ball early on and was showing some noticeable changes, unfortunately he couldn't sustain it. I certainly wasn't expecting him to hit 60 home runs in a 60 game season.

[Spanky99]

He was hitting the s*** out of the ball early on and was showing some noticeable changes, unfortunately he couldn't sustain it. I certainly wasn't expecting him to hit 60 home runs in a 60 game season.

 

He's dropped his K% by 5, but his ISO seems to have suffered, I'd rather the power back. Grichuk's the least of this teams problems.

[Stangstag]

He's dropped his K% by 5, but his ISO seems to have suffered, I'd rather the power back. Grichuk's the least of this teams problems.

 

IIRC most of his homers the last few year were pulled to left. This year, seems all his homers have been to center and right.

[Spanky99]

IIRC most of his homers the last few year were pulled to left. This year, seems all his homers have been to center and right.

 

Yeah, because he's staying longer through the zone. It might take away from his ISO, as I mentioned earlier.

[Stangstag]

Yeah, because he's staying longer through the zone. It might take away from his ISO, as I mentioned earlier.

 

Yes I was agreeing with your ISO comment

[Laika]

Randal Grichuk's swing is awful. Very awkward and ugly. The opposite of athletic. It looks stiff, stupid, and over-coached.

[max silver]

Randal Grichuk's swing is awful. Very awkward and ugly. The opposite of athletic.

 

I'm really not a fan of the inside out swing he's been utilizing recently. Even the home run he hit was a weird looking swing.

[glory]

The 2018 version of Grichuk was fine. Flawed, but fine. The 2019-20 version is trash. I hoped the decrease in K's was a meaningful change, but seems to have sacrificed his power in doing so, which was his biggest strength. Maybe they think someday he'll combine his 2018 power with his 2020 BB:K, but in the mean time aside from his July/August hot streaks he's as frustrating as ever.

[max silver]

I had a peak at his batted ball numbers on Fangraphs, in August when he was hot his batted ball distribution was about 47% to left, 28% to center and 25% to right field. In September when he's been cold he's been 44% to left, 18% to center and 38% to right field. I think he's waiting too long to start his swing and overdoing the whole let the ball travel thing, he's not squaring the ball up with very much frequency and hitting a bunch of weakly hit balls to the right side of the diamond at the expense of his power.

[dineke]

So randal was a mirage, what's the consensus on teoscar? Is he a stud and a core peice for the forseeable future or is he going to go back to hitting .230 with low on base next year?

[Ex Player]

So randal was a mirage, what's the consensus on teoscar? Is he a stud and a core peice for the forseeable future or is he going to go back to hitting .230 with low on base next year?

Teo is a future all-star, and Grichuk perhaps also

[max silver]

So randal was a mirage, what's the consensus on teoscar? Is he a stud and a core peice for the forseeable future or is he going to go back to hitting .230 with low on base next year?

 

I think with Grichuk it's still too early to tell where he finally settles out. He's constantly tinkering with his swing and approach, maybe he fully unlocks his potential or remains a roughly league average player. No doubt in my mind Teoscar is a stud, over his last 5 months of play dating back to his callup in June last season he's put up a 140 WRC+. In the 131 games he's played since then he's slugged 39 home runs.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=1000&season1=2020&ind=0&team=14&players=0&startdate=2019-06-01&enddate=2020-09-22

[jerb]

[TheDragon]

He was hitting the s*** out of the ball early on and was showing some noticeable changes, unfortunately he couldn't sustain it. I certainly wasn't expecting him to hit 60 home runs in a 60 game season.

 

Nobody was expecting that but everyone was expecting him to be better than he's been the last few years, which he's clearly not.

[glory]

Rest of the regular season apparently looks like this:

 

Tonight: Roark

Wednesday: Ray

Thursday: Ryu

Friday: Walker

Saturday: Shoemaker

Sunday: Roark/whoever

 

WC1: Ryu

WC2: Walker

WC3: Shoemaker

[max silver]

Nobody was expecting that but everyone was expecting him to be better than he's been the last few years, which he's clearly not.

 

What are you even basing this conclusion on? He's raised his WRC+ by 14 points and cut his strikeout rate by nearly 5%. I think it would be foolish to try and make a definitive conclusion after a 49 game sample but those looks like signs of improvement to me.

[Laika]

What are you even basing this conclusion on? He's raised his WRC+ by 14 points and cut his strikeout rate by nearly 5%. I think it would be foolish to try and make a definitive conclusion after a 49 game sample but those looks like signs of improvement to me.

 

It's kind of weird. Small changes to some important indicators, but in both directions. All of these changes are stable by now based on the sample size:

 

K's are down. Line drives up.

 

But ISO is down, and EV is down. Line drives are up at the expense of flyballs.

 

His Barrel rate is worse than his best years.

 

All things considered it just seems like a wash. He's different but of the same quality.

 

It's interesting that Statcast seems to like his defense a lot more than UZR. fWAR might underrate him a bit.

[The Iceman]

A piece from The Athletic:

Heading into Tuesday’s start, Roark had faced 91 right-handed hitters in 2020.

And to that point, they had slashed .381/.429/.525 against him.

They’ve crushed 10 home runs off him in the last 19 innings.

That amounts to a wOBA of .525.

[Spanky99]

A piece from The Athletic:

Heading into Tuesday’s start, Roark had faced 91 right-handed hitters in 2020.

And to that point, they had slashed .381/.429/.525 against him.

They’ve crushed 10 home runs off him in the last 19 innings.

That amounts to a wOBA of .525.

 

Yikes!

[Krylian]

A piece from The Athletic:

Heading into Tuesday’s start, Roark had faced 91 right-handed hitters in 2020.

And to that point, they had slashed .381/.429/.525 against him.

They’ve crushed 10 home runs off him in the last 19 innings.

That amounts to a wOBA of .525.

 

So this is what Taijuan Walker will be in a few years?

[wilko]

A piece from The Athletic:

Heading into Tuesday’s start, Roark had faced 91 right-handed hitters in 2020.

And to that point, they had slashed .381/.429/.525 against him.

They’ve crushed 10 home runs off him in the last 19 innings.

That amounts to a wOBA of .525.

 

Yeah that's gross. I think it's time to put him in the pen and face lefties and mop up.

 

Edited September 23, 2020 by wilko

[Spanky99]

I guess Tanner's been looking to far ahead...

 

Tuesday's starter Tanner Roark struggled again, allowing six runs over 4 1/3 frames to balloon his ERA to 7.01, but the veteran right-hander still knows what this pitching staff needs to do over the final five games and playoff run.

 

"I feel like the whole team, we just need to take it one game at a time. Just keep winning," Roark said. "Whatever comes after that is out of our hands. We just need to take it like the cliche, one game at a time, and not look ahead."

[TheDragon]

"We just need to take it like the cliche, one game at a time, and not look ahead."

 

We just need to not have Tanner Roark in our rotation.

[glory]

"We just need to take it like the cliche, one game at a time, and not look ahead."

 

 

Roark acting like he's part of the playoff team.

[Krylian]

 

Roark acting like he's part of the playoff team.

 

I'd be shocked if he wasn't...I mean, I hope they have the balls to leave him off the roster but I'm not convinced they'll do the vetrin like that.

[Brownie19]

 

Roark acting like he's part of the playoff team.

 

Remember when this f***stick complained they pulled him from the game too early?

[Dokken]

Yeah that's gross. I think it's time to put him in the pen and face lefties and mop up.

 

 

but what explains the apparent relative 'success' against left-handed batters? It's not like he is blowing them away with a high 90s fastball with good command.

[Spanky99]

but what explains the apparent relative 'success' against left-handed batters? It's not like he is blowing them away with a high 90s fastball with good command.

 

It's his HR/FB rate, it's atrocious, and his numbers against LHB's isn't any good. He's flat out getting rocked. Facing the Yankees 3 times didn't help, they rekt his ass, lol. Oddly enough, he didn't give up a HR last night.