Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[BTS]

Betances missed almost the entire year with shoulder problems and then he partially tore his achilles. You guys are scared shitless of Giles health issues, but you have no worries about Betances? The guy might not even pitch in 2020.

 

We're talking 1/10 for Betances vs. like 3/40 for Giles + the opportunity cost of not trading him. They're not similar investments. And there's no reason to think he won't pitch in 2020.

[saskjayfan]

We're talking 1/10 for Betances vs. like 3/40 for Giles + the opportunity cost of not trading him. They're not similar investments. And there's no reason to think he won't pitch in 2020.

 

I was talking about not trading him before the deadline and making a choice to extend him or trade him at that point depending on how the team was developing. The health risks are the same, just for this year. Betances partially tore his achilles in September. That, plus the shoulder makes him a definite risk. Personally, I'd keep Giles till the deadline and sign Betances, because I'm a risk taker.

Edited December 20, 2019 by saskjayfan

[Abomination]

We're talking 1/10 for Betances vs. like 3/40 for Giles + the opportunity cost of not trading him. They're not similar investments. And there's no reason to think he won't pitch in 2020.

 

I think there's the legitimate question of whether teams will offer anything decent for Giles. Most teams just aren't parting with high end prospects for rentals anymore. I think I'd be tempted to offer Giles something like 5/60 (assuming there's no issues in his medicals). Keep him around for when it matters. In an era of volatile relievers, he's been very good and very consistent.

[BTS]

I was talking about not trading him before the deadline and making a choice to extend him or trade him at that point depending on how the team was developing. The health risk are the same, just for this year. Betances partially tore his achilles in September. That, plus the shoulder makes him a definite risk. Personally, I'd keep Giles till the deadline and sign Betances, because I'm a risk taker.

 

gotcha

[Jimcanuck]

I'm sure I was advocating an extension. There was only speculation in the media as to the term and dollars. Bautista denied the 150 million dollar ask. I certainly wasn't advocating a 7 year term. I'm sure I would have been on a 3 or 4 year term for Bautista and it would have been a bad decision. If you go further back in the posts on the old board, I also indicated strongly the day Bautista signed his previous deal that it was a fantastic contract and 90% on here thought it was a terrible signing. How did that 5 for 64 with a team option work out?

 

You would have posted something if you actually found it, and if you spent the time trying to find posts from 3 years ago, you need to get a life.

 

Took 10 seconds.

 

The two most risky signings are relievers and guys far along the aging curve. You wanted to sign Bautista to a 5 year deal in 2016, and want to sign Giles to a 3 year deal. Risk taker you sure are.

[Maico450]

I think there's the legitimate question of whether teams will offer anything decent for Giles. Most teams just aren't parting with high end prospects for rentals anymore. I think I'd be tempted to offer Giles something like 5/60 (assuming there's no issues in his medicals). Keep him around for when it matters. In an era of volatile relievers, he's been very good and very consistent.

 

5 years for a reliever is scary.

[Terminator]

The Blue Jays made a big push to land Tanner Roark, as the right-hander told reporters (including Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic) that Toronto was the first team to get in contact with his representatives as free agency opened. “They knew what they wanted, and they wanted me and it’s exciting to have someone want you like that,” Roark said. Pitching coach Pete Walker also told McGrath that he and Roark “just seemed to hit it off” during a 25-minute phone call. Roark ended up inking a two-year, $24MM deal with the Jays, and is looking forward to being a veteran leader within Toronto’s young clubhouse.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/al-east-notes-panik-tsutsugo-roark-abad-holmes.html

 

No one, and I mean no one, will deny Ross Atkins in FA.

[BTS]

No one, and I mean no one, will deny Ross Atkins in FA.

 

It's the most Ross Atkins thing ever to put on a full court press to lock up Tanner Roark.

[glory]

I think there's the legitimate question of whether teams will offer anything decent for Giles. Most teams just aren't parting with high end prospects for rentals anymore. I think I'd be tempted to offer Giles something like 5/60 (assuming there's no issues in his medicals). Keep him around for when it matters. In an era of volatile relievers, he's been very good and very consistent.

 

Five years for Giles, or any reliever for that matter, is never going to happen with this front office, and in this case it shouldn't.

 

You might be right that the value in a trade may not be there for a one year rental, but that doesn't mean extending him is necessarily the right move either. I think you move him now or in July either way. Now might be better just to avoid potential injury and complete loss of value in July, but the deal has to make sense as well.

[P2F]

No one, and I mean no one, will deny Ross Atkins in FA.

 

The man gets what he wants, and what he wanted was Tanner f***ing Roark!

[Laika]

I think there's the legitimate question of whether teams will offer anything decent for Giles... I think I'd be tempted to offer Giles something like 5/60.

 

The dissonance between these two statements gives me vertigo.

[Laika]

To be fair to Ross, it seems like the Blue Jays might have been the first team to call nearly every free agent.

[Spanky99]

The man gets what he wants, and what he wanted was Tanner f***ing Roark!

 

lol

[Abomination]

Five years for Giles, or any reliever for that matter, is never going to happen with this front office, and in this case it shouldn't.

 

You might be right that the value in a trade may not be there for a one year rental, but that doesn't mean extending him is necessarily the right move either. I think you move him now or in July either way. Now might be better just to avoid potential injury and complete loss of value in July, but the deal has to make sense as well.

 

Over the last four years, among qualified relievers, he's 11th in WAR and 9th in xFIP. I don't think 12M/year is reckless for his age 29 through 33 years, as long as the arm is fine. Similar guys surrounding him like Chapman (okay, Chapman is better), Miller, Kimbrel, Jansen, Britton are all making more than that per year. We're going to need a good closer for at least three of those years anyway, hopefully four, so why not get one at a fair price who wants to be here for those years?

[Abomination]

The dissonance between these two statements gives me vertigo.

 

Obviously I meant in terms of prospects, not contract.

[Laika]

Obviously I meant in terms of prospects, not contract.

 

It's all currency.

[Abomination]

It's all currency.

 

True, but some of it is denominated in US Dollars and some of it is in Mexican Pesos.

[glory]

Over the last four years, among qualified relievers, he's 11th in WAR and 9th in xFIP. I don't think 12M/year is reckless for his age 29 through 33 years, as long as the arm is fine. Similar guys surrounding him like Chapman (okay, Chapman is better), Miller, Kimbrel, Jansen, Britton are all making more than that per year. We're going to need a good closer for at least three of those years anyway, hopefully four, so why not get one at a fair price who wants to be here for those years?

 

The chances of Giles being elite for another five years in his 30’s is pretty remote. I mean it could happen but I wouldn’t pay $60 million over 5 years to find out. There’s probably a reasonable extension that can be worked out between Giles and the Jays but I don’t see it happening. He was almost traded in July and with the team striking out in free agency (unless the Ryu pipe dream happens) I don’t see why they’d keep him without getting those significant additions they thought they’d get. Might as well do it in the winter. Waiting until July to trade players has not worked out well for Shatkins.

[saskjayfan]

Took 10 seconds.

 

The two most risky signings are relievers and guys far along the aging curve. You wanted to sign Bautista to a 5 year deal in 2016, and want to sign Giles to a 3 year deal. Risk taker you sure are.

 

no one is giving jose 5 150. Irresponsible journalism is the cause of most of this fuss. Jose has a number he wants. He's entitled to wait. There's risk on both ends. If Jose has a great year someone will probably give him 4 100 or 5 110. The Jays will have to decide if they want to match that level of commitment. Jose and Sandoval are polar opposites. Sandoval got big years and dollars because he was young, but he does't take care of his body and his contract isn't a great one. Jose despite being old may very well keep his level of play up and earn his 4 year 90 or 100 or whatever he ends up getting. 39 no good is just the norm. Jose could be the outlier and be 39 and very good, but there's no guarantees in baseball. That's what makes it interesting.

 

 

Why do you make s*** up. This is the my exact quote from Feb 23, 2016 when Bautista was coming off a 5 win season. I would have likely given him a 4 and 100, but I clearly outlayed the risks and coming off that 5 win season there were plenty of people suggesting an extension was appropriate and even a fangraphs article suggesting he was worth a 100 mil extension.

 

You think anyone over 30 is going to be garbage. Giles isn't even 30 yet. If we signed him for his age 30, 31 and 32 seasons that would be 21, 22 and 23. Do we have no intentions of competing? Giles FIP has ranged from 1.34 to a career high of 3.08. A few years ago relievers like this were getting big AAVs and multiple years.

 

If we are talking about risk if this off season has taught us anything it is difficult to convince guys to sign here. Giles is a guy who is already here and you can gauge if he's open to staying. Getting Paxton to sign here is going to be a monumental challenge next off season. If Pearson performs fantastic it becomes a little bit easier. If he has mixed results it becomes even harder, but you can at least sell the upside. Having an anchor to your bullpen for 3 years will make the job of selling Paxton, Odorizzi or a bauer on Toronto a hell of a lot easier. I think a 3 and 39 taking him through his age 32 season is not that unreasonable. We can trade him and get prospects, but that makes the job of making significant signings in 2021 a lot harder and you push your window to 2022.

[z3r0s]

Mutual interest between the Jays and Eddy. I really don't have an issue bringing him back as long as it doesn't affect our ability to spend.

Solid hitter that can hopefully be a good mentor on the bench. Is also the kind of bench bat that can be in demand at the deadline if he's having an ok year.

[Amok]

The Ranger signed Gibson and Lyles. Those are hardly difference makers. The Reds signed Moustakas for a deal much higher than projected. Wheeler turned down the Whitesox despite being offered more money.

 

Which starter are the Jays going to sign next year? I'm guessing no one. The plan is to wait things out until 2022 and if our pitching prospects turn out we compete in 2022. If they don't we trade off the core for our next rebuild. It will be an incredibly exciting time. Just think of the prospects we will get for Vlad and Bo.

 

Gibson is a 2.5 to 3.0WAR starter. And Wheeler signed with the Phillies a 81 win team. He picked them over the Whitesox because of East Coast location. But it is not like the Phillies are a powerhouse.

 

I haven't really looked at the free agent list. My guess they will make a run at local Canadian boy James Paxton. But it is way too early to talk about next off-season for free agents.

 

Bottom line the Jays will have a young core with a ton of potential close to .500. If the dollars are right the Jays can sign people.

[Laika]

Mutual interest between the Jays and Eddy. I really don't have an issue bringing him back as long as it doesn't affect our ability to spend.

Solid hitter that can hopefully be a good mentor on the bench. Is also the kind of bench bat that can be in demand at the deadline if he's having an ok year.

 

It would be a perfect move. They have a hole in the 1B/DH department. It would please the casuals a little bit. It would show some gumption. It would almost certainly be just a one year deal at a palatable AAV but a team option would be cool too. The Veteran Presents could actually matter with the young positional core, maybe he could teach Vlad how to lift the f***ing ball a little bit and how to be fat but good.

[G-Snarls]

It would be a perfect move. They have a hole in the 1B/DH department. It would please the casuals a little bit. It would show some gumption. It would almost certainly be just a one year deal at a palatable AAV but a team option would be cool too. The Veteran Presents could actually matter with the young positional core, maybe he could teach Vlad how to lift the f***ing ball a little bit and how to be fat but good.

 

And make sure he doesn't waste energy or risk hurting himself running hard to 1B on pop ups

[glory]

Mutual interest between the Jays and Eddy. I really don't have an issue bringing him back as long as it doesn't affect our ability to spend.

Solid hitter that can hopefully be a good mentor on the bench. Is also the kind of bench bat that can be in demand at the deadline if he's having an ok year.

 

Atkins in a TSN interview said the team is looking for either someone who can make a significant offensive contribution or someone who offers positional versatility, and he made it seem like it will be one or the other. Considering what’s out there in terms of 1B (no real long term options), I’m starting to think Edwin is the guy we end up with if for no other reason than he actually wouldn’t mind taking the Jays money.

[Jonn]

I’m very down having Edwin finish his career here. Perfect in the DH slot and can play a little 1B. Would be an awesome veteran for the young latins as well.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I’m very down having Edwin finish his career here. Perfect in the DH slot and can play a little 1B. Would be an awesome veteran for the young latins as well.

 

Maybe a 1B platoon, EE takes on lefties and Tellez vs righties? I like that. Edwin can DH the rest of the time, and when EE plays 1B, Tellez can sit (or DH if he's hot) and allows others like Vlad to get some DH time.

 

I like it.

 

Edwin has still been very, very solid the last three years and Steamer projects around 1.6 WAR.

 

And, he's Edwin.

 

In sum, a definite upgrade at 1B/DH spot.

[L54]

[Krylian]

 

Competitive offer is a cousin of the competitive walk

[glory]

Competitive offer is a cousin of the competitive walk

 

Edwin might be the only free agent where a competitive offer might actually work, though. Edwin brings a reliable bat (assuming he doesn’t age overnight), nostalgia to make the casuals happy, and some vetrin presents for the youngsters. Not my first choice but I’m warming up to it.

[Jimcanuck]

EE is fine as a 1 yr seat filler.

 

Just hope EE on a 1 year deal at age 37 works out better than Bats on a 1 year deal at age 37.