2019 Trade Deadline Thread

[P2F]

The Blue Jays have one of the best starters (Marcus Stroman) and one of the best relievers (Ken Giles) available on this summer’s trade market, and TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that teams have been expressing interest in acquiring both in the same package. Both the Twins and the Yankees have reached out to Toronto to express interest in a single trade to net both pitchers, per Mitchell, who cautions that the organization’s preference may be to maximize the return by orchestrating separate trades.

Minnesota’s interest in Giles (and relief help in general) has already been reported. But for all the help the Twins could use in the ’pen, the rotation is also a potential area of focus. The wheels have come off the Martin Perez project of late, as the lefty has been hammered for a 5.37 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate across his past 10 starts. And while Michael Pineda has improved in recent weeks as he distances himself from 2017 Tommy John surgery, he also figures to have his workload more carefully managed late in the season.

The Yankees are a similarly logical landing spot for Stroman. Luis Severino has yet to pitch this season due to multiple injuries, while each of James Paxton, Domingo German and CC Sabathia has spent time on the injured list. Left-hander J.A. Happhas struggled as well (5.02 ERA, 5.35 FIP in 89 12/3 innings) — unable to replicate a quartet of strong seasons from 2015-18.

Stroman recently had a bit of a health scare, exiting his last outing against the Royals due to a pectoral cramp. His final start prior to the All-Star break was skipped, but Stroman isn’t expected to miss time beyond that. If the issue is as minor as it appears to be, Stroman’s value wouldn’t be likely to take a hit. It seems quite likely that Stroman will be wearing a new uniform come Aug. 1, although Atkins danced around the matter without addressing the likelihood of a deal in a recent meeting with the Toronto media (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet):

 

I would say this: Marcus has put himself in an incredible position throughout his career, not just over the last four months. He has been durable. He has performed at an exceptionally high rate. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last three years and because of that he is in a great position for his future with the Toronto Blue Jays and there are 29 other teams that are thinking the same way, that they would love to have someone that has been durable and has been productive. We’ll see. With another year of control for us, that’s attractive to us, that’s extremely attractive to other teams, as well. He’s put himself in a remarkable spot and earned all of that respect.

 

As for Giles, he may appear to be somewhat of a luxury for a deep Yankees relief corps, but it’s also true that the ’pen hasn’t been as dominant as many might have expected. Aroldis Chapman and Tommy Kahnle have thrived, and Chad Green looks reborn since a brief demotion to Triple-A in late April. Adam Ottavino has a sub-2.00 ERA but 6.1 BB/9 mark. Zack Britton’s bat-missing ability still hasn’t returned, as his 6.3 K/9 mark isn’t much higher than his 4.9 BB/9. Jonathan Holder had to be optioned to the minors after struggling to keep his ERA under 7.00. Dellin Betances, like Severino, hasn’t pitched in 2019.

Either Stroman or Giles on his own would have a fairly notable asking price, so adding both at once may very well teeter on exorbitant. The Jays seem likely to move both, though, and they’re also expected to gauge interest in Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Sanchez, Eric Sogard, Daniel Hudson and other veterans as their rebuilding efforts continue.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/marcus-stroman-trade-rumors-yankees-twins-ken-giles-blue-jays.html

[z3r0s]

I'm tentatively excited about the deadline. We could really use a boost in the farm as we push back to contention, but I'm worried I'll be let down like with the Happ trade last year. Ross did ok on some other deal last deadline and over the winter, but that one left me pretty deflated

[Dr. Dinger]

Happ was never very valuable as a rental chip, the problem was your expectations.

[Krylian]

I'm tentatively excited about the deadline. We could really use a boost in the farm as we push back to contention, but I'm worried I'll be let down like with the Happ trade last year. Ross did ok on some other deal last deadline and over the winter, but that one left me pretty deflated

 

Stroman and Giles are both far superior assets to Happ.

 

I am clenching my butt cheeks though as it would be very Blue Jays for them both to get hurt before they're moved.

[BlueRocky]

The Blue Jays have one of the best starters (Marcus Stroman) and one of the best relievers (Ken Giles) available on this summer’s trade market, and TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that teams have been expressing interest in acquiring both in the same package. Both the Twins and the Yankees have reached out to Toronto to express interest in a single trade to net both pitchers, per Mitchell, who cautions that the organization’s preference may be to maximize the return by orchestrating separate trades.

Minnesota’s interest in Giles (and relief help in general) has already been reported. But for all the help the Twins could use in the ’pen, the rotation is also a potential area of focus. The wheels have come off the Martin Perez project of late, as the lefty has been hammered for a 5.37 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate across his past 10 starts. And while Michael Pineda has improved in recent weeks as he distances himself from 2017 Tommy John surgery, he also figures to have his workload more carefully managed late in the season.

The Yankees are a similarly logical landing spot for Stroman. Luis Severino has yet to pitch this season due to multiple injuries, while each of James Paxton, Domingo German and CC Sabathia has spent time on the injured list. Left-hander J.A. Happhas struggled as well (5.02 ERA, 5.35 FIP in 89 12/3 innings) — unable to replicate a quartet of strong seasons from 2015-18.

Stroman recently had a bit of a health scare, exiting his last outing against the Royals due to a pectoral cramp. His final start prior to the All-Star break was skipped, but Stroman isn’t expected to miss time beyond that. If the issue is as minor as it appears to be, Stroman’s value wouldn’t be likely to take a hit. It seems quite likely that Stroman will be wearing a new uniform come Aug. 1, although Atkins danced around the matter without addressing the likelihood of a deal in a recent meeting with the Toronto media (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet):

 

I would say this: Marcus has put himself in an incredible position throughout his career, not just over the last four months. He has been durable. He has performed at an exceptionally high rate. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last three years and because of that he is in a great position for his future with the Toronto Blue Jays and there are 29 other teams that are thinking the same way, that they would love to have someone that has been durable and has been productive. We’ll see. With another year of control for us, that’s attractive to us, that’s extremely attractive to other teams, as well. He’s put himself in a remarkable spot and earned all of that respect.

 

As for Giles, he may appear to be somewhat of a luxury for a deep Yankees relief corps, but it’s also true that the ’pen hasn’t been as dominant as many might have expected. Aroldis Chapman and Tommy Kahnle have thrived, and Chad Green looks reborn since a brief demotion to Triple-A in late April. Adam Ottavino has a sub-2.00 ERA but 6.1 BB/9 mark. Zack Britton’s bat-missing ability still hasn’t returned, as his 6.3 K/9 mark isn’t much higher than his 4.9 BB/9. Jonathan Holder had to be optioned to the minors after struggling to keep his ERA under 7.00. Dellin Betances, like Severino, hasn’t pitched in 2019.

Either Stroman or Giles on his own would have a fairly notable asking price, so adding both at once may very well teeter on exorbitant. The Jays seem likely to move both, though, and they’re also expected to gauge interest in Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Sanchez, Eric Sogard, Daniel Hudson and other veterans as their rebuilding efforts continue.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/marcus-stroman-trade-rumors-yankees-twins-ken-giles-blue-jays.html

 

Kinda confirmed all the speculations we made on the previous 2-3 podcast episodes.

 

Yankees and Twins are front runners but there’s a handful of teams that are competing and might give up a prospect to get them on July 31. Would be great if Padres, Braves, Phillies, and Astros jump on the phone lines as well.

[glory]

Happ was never very valuable as a rental chip, the problem was your expectations.

 

Having expectations that exceeded Drury and McKinney was not unreasonable.

 

But yes, Giles/Stroman are much greater assets so the return should be better. Hopefully.

[Ray]

The fact that people are pointing to the Happ trade to assess the future returns for Stroman/Giles is legitimately hilarious. Keep the laughs coming.

[Ray]

Having expectations that exceeded Drury and McKinney was not unreasonable.

 

Being disappointed in the return without knowing what other deals were on the table is almost equally unreasonable. If Atkins turned out Clint Frazier to get Drury/McKinney, then that is obviously incompetent, but he legitimately may have taken the best players available.

 

I'm not entirely sure what more was expected from 36 year old JA Happ. Yu Darvish was traded for a fringe Top 100 guy in Willie Calhoun at the time + 2 throw ins in 2017. That served as a ceiling of what Happ could've brought, and likelier much lower since Happ never had the upside that Darvish did, plus the age factor. If we were looking at something below that prospects wise, it's not a stretch to say that Drury/McKinney was indeed the better package.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Ray

[glory]

Being disappointed in the return without knowing what other deals were on the table is almost equally unreasonable. Drury/McKinney may legitimately have been the best players available in any package offered.

 

I'm not entirely sure what more was expected from 36 year old JA Happ. Yu Darvish was traded for a fringe Top 100 guy in Willie Calhoun at the time + 2 throw ins in 2017. If we were looking at something below that prospects wise, it's not a stretch to say that Drury/McKinney was indeed the better package.

 

McKinney had lost all of the prospect luster he had (if any) and Drury was going to be arb eligible with a 0-1 war track record in the bigs. Trading Happ for Elvis Luciano (equivalent) straight up would have probably been a better deal.

 

Now I’m sure Shatkins had some sort of metrics that said Drury was a breakout candidate, and maybe they will be proven right (I don’t expect him to go anywhere). I hope they are right. Still not a good trade though.

[Ray]

McKinney had lost all of the prospect luster he had (if any) and Drury was going to be arb eligible with a 0-1 war track record in the bigs. Trading Happ for Elvis Luciano (equivalent) straight up would have probably been a better deal.

 

Now I’m sure Shatkins had some sort of metrics that said Drury was a breakout candidate, and maybe they will be proven right (I don’t expect him to go anywhere). I hope they are right. Still not a good trade though.

 

I'm not quite sure about that. Even if you scratch out Billy McKinney from the trade, the likelihood of Brandon Drury becoming an everyday player at the time was order of magnitudes higher than a Juan De Paula or Elvis Luciano type Rk league lottery ticket pitching a single inning for you in the majors. The floor was also relatively safe for him. Had he stayed a bench player and not broke out, he still had room on a playoff team (see 2017 Arizona Dbacks).

 

It also wasn't just Atkins who recognized Drury as a potential breakout candidate. Cashman himself gave up a pretty decent haul in Nick Solak and Taylor Widener for Drury. It's not hard to see why. He was doing well in AAA, he had a major migraine issue corrected, he was still relatively young. All the ingredients were, and to be honest, are still there.

[Jimcanuck]

Drury is a good pick for a breakout 2nd half.

[Ray]

Drury is a good pick for a breakout 2nd half.

 

Highest Hard-Hit% of his career

Highest Barrel% of his career

Highest xWOBACON of his career

 

There's some signs, but he needs to make more consistent contact. He has been crushing it in July so far.

[Bobthe4th]

Being disappointed in the return without knowing what other deals were on the table is almost equally unreasonable. If Atkins turned out Clint Frazier to get Drury/McKinney, then that is obviously incompetent, but he legitimately may have taken the best players available.

 

I'm not entirely sure what more was expected from 36 year old JA Happ. Yu Darvish was traded for a fringe Top 100 guy in Willie Calhoun at the time + 2 throw ins in 2017. That served as a ceiling of what Happ could've brought, and likelier much lower since Happ never had the upside that Darvish did, plus the age factor. If we were looking at something below that prospects wise, it's not a stretch to say that Drury/McKinney was indeed the better package.

 

It’s perfectly fine to be disappointed with the trade at the time without expecting to receive multiple high value prospects. Getting two fringe 40 man players rather than one or more prospects with more risk but higher upside isn’t a very exciting return. It’s made worse because Shatkins liked and targeted Drury, even though he is trash.

 

Plus Happ was a rental so age wasn’t really relevant.

[Bobthe4th]

Everyone is right though that Stroman and Giles are completely different, and Happ like deals shouldn’t have any relevance to what we can expect.

[Ray]

It’s perfectly fine to be disappointed with the trade at the time without expecting to receive multiple high value prospects. Getting two fringe 40 man players rather than one or more prospects with more risk but higher upside isn’t a very exciting return. It’s made worse because Shatkins liked and targeted Drury, even though he is trash.

 

Plus Happ was a rental so age wasn’t really relevant.

 

It's completely fair to characterize it as non-exciting. But to say we "lost the trade" is disingenuous. At least without knowing what other options there were on the table.

 

Also, everyone's favorite GM on here Brian Cashman himself loved Drury and also mentioned that they've been in talks to acquire him for years. (before they did). So take from that what you will.

[Bobthe4th]

It's completely fair to characterize it as non-exciting. But to say we "lost the trade" is disingenuous. At least without knowing what other options there were on the table.

 

Using that logic, no fan can ever be happy or unhappy with any trade, because we can never know for sure what the alternative potential offers were.

[Barkerfan23]

Check out the deal for Paxton if you want to see how badly Cashman is going to rip us off

 

Do not trade with him

[Ray]

Using that logic, no fan can ever be happy or unhappy with any trade, because we can never know for sure what the alternative potential offers were.

 

Absolutely. We really can't evaluate most trades properly as fans. The vast majority of the time we're completely in the dark about what other names are exchanged, what exactly attracted some front offices to certain prospects/players etc. You add on the extra layer of complexity and volatility that is player evaluation and it becomes sort of like high stakes gambling.

 

That being said, as a fan, I'd be satisfied if my trade asset returns a package deemed market value and happy if it returns anything more. That would be determined by players of similar mold traded in recent years and their return. Subtracting or adding to the package from there given the caliber of my trade asset.

[BlueRocky]

Having expectations that exceeded Drury and McKinney was not unreasonable.

 

But yes, Giles/Stroman are much greater assets so the return should be better. Hopefully.

 

They will get something better.

I get that people are still upset at the Happ deal, but it’s beating a dead horse at this point.

 

At the time I did much rather have a Yankee lotto ticket arm coming back, and was a bit tilted when we got two position players instead. Even a Abreu, Luis Medina or Acevedo would’ve been nice, but hindsight is 20/20. what can we do?

 

I agree, don’t trade with Cashman unless you’re getting great value back, which rarely happens.

[glory]

I'm not quite sure about that. Even if you scratch out Billy McKinney from the trade, the likelihood of Brandon Drury becoming an everyday player at the time was order of magnitudes higher than a Juan De Paula or Elvis Luciano type Rk league lottery ticket pitching a single inning for you in the majors. The floor was also relatively safe for him. Had he stayed a bench player and not broke out, he still had room on a playoff team (see 2017 Arizona Dbacks).

 

It also wasn't just Atkins who recognized Drury as a potential breakout candidate. Cashman himself gave up a pretty decent haul in Nick Solak and Taylor Widener for Drury. It's not hard to see why. He was doing well in AAA, he had a major migraine issue corrected, he was still relatively young. All the ingredients were, and to be honest, are still there.

 

Cashman acquiring him is why I think giving Drury a chance is worth doing. Cashman knows how to find these undervalued gems and Drury had no place on their 40 man after Andujar panned out.

 

With that said, I still would have taken the low minors lottery ticket. Or Drury + a low minors lottery ticket. I'd rather dream on a 19-20 year old's potential, even if the bust potential is high, than know what I'm getting with McKinney (nothing).

 

As far as not being able to judge a trade because we don't know what the other offers were, wouldn't that then work both ways? The Smith for Pannone/Taylor trade (which I liked) can't be viewed positively using that logic because some other team might have been offering something better. We as fans can only judge trades at face value. The natural assumption is that Atkins (and any GM) is going to take the deal which they feel is the best they were offered. Doesn't make it good. Otherwise we can't judge any trades.

[Dick_Pole]

Trade Stroman to a place where you know he will hate it, like Minnesota, and resign him in two years when the Jays are ready to compete. Since he loves it here so much. Only so many city tattoos he can get. If he gets traded to the Yankees I can see him retiring there. That solves everyone's problem between the people who want to trade him and those who want him to sign an extension.

 

This is of course based on the assumption that signing him to a 5 year deal is worth the risk heading into his 30's.

[Krylian]

Trade Stroman to a place where you know he will hate it, like Minnesota, and resign him in two years when the Jays are ready to compete. Since he loves it here so much. Only so many city tattoos he can get. If he gets traded to the Yankees I can see him retiring there. That solves everyone's problem between the people who want to trade him and those who want him to sign an extension.

 

This is of course based on the assumption that signing him to a 5 year deal is worth the risk heading into his 30's.

 

Ya...he'd love to re-sign him here after we banish him to Minnesota. He's the type that would hold a grudge.

[Barkerfan23]

Organisation should consider resigning Stroman. Pearson and others might not be far away.

 

We might get better within a year, and then will need to trade assets for a pitcher like Stroman.

[z3r0s]

Are there any rumours out there of Stro and the Phillies? With Arrieta possibly going down, they might need another proven arm. I could be wrong, but I don't recall seeing them in the 'list of suitors'.

[glory]

Are there any rumours out there of Stro and the Phillies? With Arrieta possibly going down, they might need another proven arm. I could be wrong, but I don't recall seeing them in the 'list of suitors'.

 

I haven't read anything about the Phillies except that they won't blow their load for a WC spot.

 

Lots of smoke around Stro and the Yankees, much like Happ and the Yankees last year. That seems like the perfect fit other than the thought of trading with Cashman scaring the ever loving s*** out of me. With Martin out I don't see who the Astros could give up to make a deal worthwhile for the Jays assuming they are not willing to give up Whitley, Tucker, or Alvarez (not happening). If the Yankees are willing to move Deivi Garcia, and that has a lot of smoke around it as well, then that's probably the best the Jays are going to do. Unless the Twins are willing to overpay.

[Jonn]

I haven't read anything about the Phillies except that they won't blow their load for a WC spot.

 

Lots of smoke around Stro and the Yankees, much like Happ and the Yankees last year. That seems like the perfect fit other than the thought of trading with Cashman scaring the ever loving s*** out of me. With Martin out I don't see who the Astros could give up to make a deal worthwhile for the Jays assuming they are not willing to give up Whitley, Tucker, or Alvarez (not happening). If the Yankees are willing to move Deivi Garcia, and that has a lot of smoke around it as well, then that's probably the best the Jays are going to do. Unless the Twins are willing to overpay.

 

Well if I’m Atkins Im making the Astros give up one of their top prospects or they are out quickly. Lots of pressure on Atkins to get great returns.,The Happ situation can’t happen again. And if you’re trading him in the division we need to hurt that farm system plus get Frazier in that deal.

 

I was kind of thinking Galvis gets traded this week to make room for Bo but maybe they want to wait a bit longer.

[L54]

Deivi Garcia would be an awesome get for Stro. Not interested in Frazier unless he's a secondary piece

 

You would have both Pearson and Garcia knocking at the door of the rotation heading into 2020. That's a pretty nice 1/2 punch waiting in the wings

[BlueRocky]

[Ray]

Cashman acquiring him is why I think giving Drury a chance is worth doing. Cashman knows how to find these undervalued gems and Drury had no place on their 40 man after Andujar panned out.

 

With that said, I still would have taken the low minors lottery ticket. Or Drury + a low minors lottery ticket. I'd rather dream on a 19-20 year old's potential, even if the bust potential is high, than know what I'm getting with McKinney (nothing).

 

As far as not being able to judge a trade because we don't know what the other offers were, wouldn't that then work both ways? The Smith for Pannone/Taylor trade (which I liked) can't be viewed positively using that logic because some other team might have been offering something better. We as fans can only judge trades at face value. The natural assumption is that Atkins (and any GM) is going to take the deal which they feel is the best they were offered. Doesn't make it good. Otherwise we can't judge any trades.

 

It's the classic risk aversion vs. risk taker debate. The 99th percentile outcome of a Rk league pitcher is that he never makes the majors, with <1% chance that he becomes a starter. Yeah you could "dream on him", but it doesn't make it the better deal over a safer McKinney type, who has a much higher chance to become a 2 WAR contributor given more playing time.

 

If you want to judge them at face value, fine. But it's also fair to give some of these players more rope rather than writing them off as "nothing" in their first full year of facing major league pitching, ala Billy McKinney. There are plenty of examples of players getting more and more comfortable as the years go by. It's probably applicable to most major leaguers playing today. Most didn't blossom until they were 1 or 2 or 3 years into the league or grew closer to the major league average age.

[Carlos Danger]

Stroman will go to the Braves, you heard it here first..