Charlie Montoyo Egregious Mistake Tracking Thread

[Brownie19]

I don't want to s*** on anyone...not today, not after that game - not when this team is really starting to look exciting again. However, anyone else hear the Montoyo interview on the radio pre-game?

 

He spoke about protecting Vladdy in the lineup and how Vladdy is going to be a great RBI player.

 

Was Charlie like the crazy old uncle in Tampa? A guy who's great to have around because he's a nice guy and personal, but someone who isn't actually responsible for any strategic calls? I'm just not sure how he can be in the Tampa organization so long and still sound like he's Goose Gossage.

[Brownie19]

The only thing I can think of is the team doesn't want Vlad to run the bases in that moment because of concerns about getting hurt in a rundown or from having to run from 1st to potentially 3rd or home.

 

Otherwise I am at a loss for why Vlad was taken out today.

 

Buck/Dan said Montoyo said on Friday that the put Hanson in because he had a feeling the A's would score in the 10th and wanted to sell out and score. They say he probably thought the same thing today with Pannone in facing all those right handed hitters.

 

I don't know if Charlie is religious, but I suspect he is. I'm not a huge fan of people who summon their spirit guides (Coco reference) to aid their decisions - but sometimes it works (giving them fuel to do it again).

[Terminator]

I don't want to s*** on anyone...not today, not after that game - not when this team is really starting to look exciting again. However, anyone else hear the Montoyo interview on the radio pre-game?

 

He spoke about protecting Vladdy in the lineup and how Vladdy is going to be a great RBI player.

 

Was Charlie like the crazy old uncle in Tampa? A guy who's great to have around because he's a nice guy and personal, but someone who isn't actually responsible for any strategic calls? I'm just not sure how he can be in the Tampa organization so long and still sound like he's Goose Gossage.

 

Is there anywhere I can watch the post game interviews?

[Brownie19]

Is there anywhere I can watch the post game interviews?

 

This was a pre-game interview on the radio broadcast. And I have no idea where to find it.

[G-Snarls]

Is there anywhere I can watch the post game interviews?

 

Sometimes on Sportsnet.ca

[G-Snarls]

Is there anywhere I can watch the post game interviews?

 

Sometimes here

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/

 

But not often. Gibby interviews were more commonly posted but his were also more entertaining of course

Edited April 28, 2019 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

We need the Indians to have a s*** season and their FO foolishly decides to fire Tito. Shapiro sweet talks him into the Jays managerial job.

[glory]

 

There is no way Atkins didn't see this coming. He endorses this s***. He has to. Gibby 2.0 (2016-beyond) was way more analytical than this, and they fired him for a man who is the same age but manages like it's 1973. All while taking out the franchise player in a 1-1 game in the 9th when he's on 1st with 1 out and could conceivably have to bat again if it goes to extra innings.

 

This thread will reach 100 pages pretty damn soon.

[Terminator]

Hanson has exhibited below average sprint speed this year at 26.8 mph. I doubt Vladdy is much slower than that. I wonder if Montoyo knows that. Doesn't seem like it.

[43211234]

It's all a ruse to get Vladdy in shape. Maybe they're trying to send a subtle message.

 

I was going to say this.

 

Montoyo is making the big-brain play. Planting the desire to get into shape into Vlad's head. Vlad becomes a +10 run 3B and puts up multiple 10 WAR seasons and leads the Blue Jays to 3 World Series.

[Olerud363]

Hanson has exhibited below average sprint speed this year at 26.8 mph. I doubt Vladdy is much slower than that. I wonder if Montoyo knows that. Doesn't seem like it.

 

Hanson has hit 72 triples in the minors, 8 in the majors (in about a season's worth of at bats) and stolen 220 bases in the minors and 22 in the majors (albeit with a mediocre caught stealing percentage)

 

About 9% of Hansen's hits are triples compared to about 2% of Vald's. This indicates Hansen has very good 1st to home speed and would have a significantly higher chance of scoring. Not sure why his sprint speed is so slow.

[Olerud363]

I don't really care about the bunts either way. I don't care about pinch running for Vlad either way. I care about the team on base percentage though and developing young players.

 

Obviously power is important to. And run prevention. And since the Jays are over performing, and have a + run differential things aren't all bad.

 

However a .298 team on base percentage is concerning. Jansen, Mckinney, Tellez, Drury, and Hernandez as a group should be mediocre hitters, instead they have been terrible. That may be changing and their stats may look a lot better in a month, but this group should have a .320 on base percentage, not .280.

 

Managers most important job on offense, is to install a good hitting philosophy, hire a good hitting coach, and develop the young players. Can't see evidence of a good job being done there. That will hopefully change though.

[Olerud363]

You guys know that Tampa Bay had 28 sacrifice hits last year?? Near the top of the AL?? What ???

 

I haven't seen that mentioned in this thread. It's been all like "This f***ing mentally injured idiot Charlie is the complete opposite of the Tampa Bay philosaphy. He is bunting so much and Tampa Bay are certified geniuses who never bunt."

 

... I didn't even bother checking the stats... however I accidently did and last year Tampa Bay was third in sacrifice hits with 28. Charlie is just doing what Tampa Bay did last year.

[Boxcar]

You guys know that Tampa Bay had 28 sacrifice hits last year?? Near the top of the AL?? What ???

 

I haven't seen that mentioned in this thread. It's been all like "This f***ing mentally injured idiot Charlie is the complete opposite of the Tampa Bay philosaphy. He is bunting so much and Tampa Bay are certified geniuses who never bunt."

 

... I didn't even bother checking the stats... however I accidently did and last year Tampa Bay was third in sacrifice hits with 28. Charlie is just doing what Tampa Bay did last year.

 

And the Blue Jays were last, with 5.

 

Last!!!!!

 

Gibbbbbbbbbbbbyyyyyyyy :'(

[Olerud363]

And the Blue Jays were last, with 5.

 

Last!!!!!

 

Gibbbbbbbbbbbbyyyyyyyy :'(

 

Yes. I'm aware of that. And I'm not pro-sac-bunt. Just pointing out that Tampa does this too. So it's not like Charlie is going against the Tampa way.

[LGBJ29]

Seriously though

 

Jays are fortunately winning these games despite Montoyo

 

The bunt is a mistake in a number of circumstances, but there are a lot of time where it mathematically makes sense. As much as everyone wants to stop their fists and say they hate every bunt they see, bunting the runner to 3rd successfully was mathematically the smart move and increased our chances of winning on Friday

[Deadpool]

The bunt is a mistake in a number of circumstances, but there are a lot of time where it mathematically makes sense. As much as everyone wants to stop their fists and say they hate every bunt they see, bunting the runner to 3rd successfully was mathematically the smart move and increased our chances of winning on Friday

 

Wut?

[Olerud363]

The bunt is a mistake in a number of circumstances, but there are a lot of time where it mathematically makes sense. As much as everyone wants to stop their fists and say they hate every bunt they see, bunting the runner to 3rd successfully was mathematically the smart move and increased our chances of winning on Friday

 

The data you really need to evaluate all these decisions is the win percentages for both scenarios given the batters actually involved, and using both their major and minor league stats. I assume the Blue Jays at this point have a big data machine that takes in all this information and give the answer. However maybe not..

 

a) the sac bunts - the number I've seen give a slight advantage to scoring more runs without the bunt... however that's run expectation. Not win % (especially for scenarios late in close games where it doesn't matter if you score 1 run or 4). I don't think the numbers people are giving are taking into account the hitters involved. However maybe they are.

 

Leadoff Galvis/Sogard - if the Jays had three or four established sluggers like in the Edwin, Donaldson, Bautista days, you might as well hit Donaldson or Bautista lead off sure. However when you have the great Billy McKinney and Teoscar Hernandez as other options, is it that bad hitting Sogard and/or Galvis up in the lineup??

 

c) Everyone kind of sucks - All our guys that should just sort of suck with .320 on base percentage have .280 on base percentages. Our guys that should be good for their positions, like Jansen, are hitting bad, this is the real issue. Hopefully that turns around. Hitting philosaphy is not good right now, but maybe just bad luck.

[Olerud363]

And the Blue Jays were last, with 5.

 

Last!!!!!

 

Gibbbbbbbbbbbbyyyyyyyy :'(

 

Two questions on offense...

 

1. Can run a high on base percentage team without sabotaging it with bad lineup decisions and bad hitting advice (check, at least in 2006 and 2015, though got a bit unlucky in 2006).

2. Can develop young players (Hill, Rios, Travis (kind of)) NOTE: In small sample size did a better job with Jansen, Teoscar, Mckinney, etc. as compared to current managment.

 

Gibby is OK at this I think. Given he was popular I didn't see an urgent need to replace him.

[LGBJ29]

Wut?

 

stomp their feet, autocorrect on my phone. There wasn't anything else you could pull from the post?

[Olerud363]

Hmmmm... so after watching for a month I see the main problem as this... Let's take an extremely simplified model of "htting tips" for a "true talent" .275 hitter with a .350 on base percentage and 30 homeruns.

 

John Gibbons - wouldn't give any stupid hitting tips either way, and the guy would hit .275 with a .350 on base percentage and 30 homeruns.

 

Cito Gaston - would give bad hitting tips, and the guy would hit .250 with a .325 on base percentage and 30 homeruns

 

Charlie - might give bad hitting tips and the guys would hit .275 with a .330 on base percentage and 25 homeruns.

 

What I am trying to say is my greatest worry is that Charlie's love of the sacrifice bunt, may indicate he doesn't understand other things, and his hitting advice will tend to be like "hit to the opposite field to move runner over", and "try to beat the shift, you can't just win on 3 run homers", so he'll effect the offensive stats, to the same magnitude as Cito but in a different pattern.

[Olerud363]

OK. I am going overboard but I am very intrigued by the theory that Charlie is just as bad as Cito Gason but in a different way. Let's compare Vladdy and Olerud

 

Olerud (with Gaston except for 1993) .280 15 60

Olerud (without Gaston hypothetical 1990-92, 94-96) .290 20 80 (no platooning, no bad hitting tips)

 

Guerrero (with Montero) .300 19 79 (too much rest, too much pinch running, too far down in the order, occasional bad hitting tips)

Guerrero (no Montero, just do what he can do) .320 25 90

 

Guerrero may have to do what Olerud did in 1993. Just dominate to a 1st ballot unanimous hall of fame level, so much so that Charlie can't give him any bad advice or pinch run, or hit him 6th, or give him un-needed rest days... the moment he's just really good instead of ridiculous then Charlie can justify bad decisions that lower his stats 10%.

[LGBJ29]

The data you really need to evaluate all these decisions is the win percentages for both scenarios given the batters actually involved, and using both their major and minor league stats. I assume the Blue Jays at this point have a big data machine that takes in all this information and give the answer. However maybe not..

 

a) the sac bunts - the number I've seen give a slight advantage to scoring more runs without the bunt... however that's run expectation. Not win % (especially for scenarios late in close games where it doesn't matter if you score 1 run or 4). I don't think the numbers people are giving are taking into account the hitters involved. However maybe they are

 

Leadoff Galvis/Sogard - if the Jays had three or four established sluggers like in the Edwin, Donaldson, Bautista days, you might as well hit Donaldson or Bautista lead off sure. However when you have the great Billy McKinney and Teoscar Hernandez as other options, is it that bad hitting Sogard and/or Galvis up in the lineup??

 

c) Everyone kind of sucks - All our guys that should just sort of suck with .320 on base percentage have .280 on base percentages. Our guys that should be good for their positions, like Jansen, are hitting bad, this is the real issue. Hopefully that turns around. Hitting philosaphy is not good right now, but maybe just bad luck.

 

that's right, a man on second with no outs has higher expected run total than a man on 3rd with 1 out, however the % chance of scoring 1 run is about 6% higher with the man on third, and since it was bottom 9 with a tie game it was a fine move. It really makes no sense to be upset about that move.

 

I feel like everyone here see's the run expectancy chart and just uses it as an absolute. Those charts are based on league average hitters, and there is a ton of variance depending on who is actually hitting. The expected runs fluctuate greatly on the hitter being asked to sacrifice himself, and also the players due up. So far Charlie has been bunting with guys like Urena, Hanson, McKinney and Maile. You can't take sub 50 wRC+ hitters and expect them to produce the same result as 100 wRC+ hitters. I don't have the numbers in front of me, nor do I know how to calculate them, but I'd be willing to bet the run expectancy and run% is higher to successfully bunt those players over rather than let a 50 wRC+ hitter swing away

[glory]

I'm not against sac bunting if it makes sense to do so. Runner on 2nd, 0 out in a tie game in the 9th inning with Ryan Goins at the plate? Bunt the man over to 3rd. Play for one run when you need one run to win the game.

 

But Montoyo's been doing it way too often in situations that do not resemble the above.

[LGBJ29]

I'm not against sac bunting if it makes sense to do so. Runner on 2nd, 0 out in a tie game in the 9th inning with Ryan Goins at the plate? Bunt the man over to 3rd. Play for one run when you need one run to win the game.

 

But Montoyo's been doing it way too often in situations that do not resemble the above.

 

The first scenario you gave above is exactly what he did Friday night (McKinney for Goins), and people are still mad about it.

 

Do you have any examples for your second point? I haven't seen him bunt with any quality hitters at the plate yet, just people expecting him to.

[Spanky99]

The bunt is a mistake in a number of circumstances, but there are a lot of time where it mathematically makes sense. As much as everyone wants to stop their fists and say they hate every bunt they see, bunting the runner to 3rd successfully was mathematically the smart move and increased our chances of winning on Friday

 

We(myself, Deadpool and G-Snarls) were commenting on PR for Vlad in a tie game, it's not like he's a slug on the base paths, same goes for yesterday, it's stupid, imo. The bunt was fine in the 9th as much as I hate it...

[Olerud363]

Still fascinated by the idea that Charlie Montoya is as terrible as Cito and effects the hitters... I'm generating tranlations, kind of like park effect but I call it the Montoya effect. Just so people can know what our players would do without Montoya.

 

Teoscar Hernandez (under a normal manager like Gibby who would just leave him alone)

 

.248 .320 .460

 

Under Montoya (who wastes his time talking bunting practice, and ground ball to the right side practice instead of regular batting practice, and wastes at bats trying to implement this in games)

 

.230 .310 .360

 

So that is Teoscar translated for the Montoya effect.

 

Edit: Just for interest here is Teoscar translated for the Cito effect (more aggressive and pulling the ball more, so a few more swing and misses at balls, grounders to the third base coach, and occasional foul ball into the fifth deck).

 

.220 .270 .410

[Boxcar]

stomp their feet, autocorrect on my phone. There wasn't anything else you could pull from the post?

 

You said "a lot of time" when it should be "a lot of times"

[LGBJ29]

We(myself, Deadpool and G-Snarls) were commenting on PR for Vlad in a tie game, it's not like he's a slug on the base paths, same goes for yesterday, it's stupid, imo. The bunt was fine in the 9th as much as I hate it...

 

I 100% agree with you guys on the PR and wasn't specifically calling you out or anything, more so the outrage in GDT's and what not

[Spanky99]

I 100% agree with you guys on the PR and wasn't specifically calling you out or anything, more so the outrage in GDT's and what not

 

I see, was just being clear, bunting early in games drives me mad, though.