So, 4 years in, are you guys still as confident in Shapiro and/or Atkins?

[Jimcanuck]

Only issue is the rebuild should have started earlier, but who knows if Rogers balked at that. Shapiro kind of implied they did.

 

As far as moves go, no real complaints. Patience now.

[Maico450]

Waaaay to early to be commenting on this team good or bad. The farm looks great, and based on what has happened under current management should only get better. Unlimited funds available next year. The future is unlimited.

[BTS]

We’re in year two of a rebuild necessitated by the short window opened by the previous regime. There have been a few mistakes (misreading the market and signing Morales instead of Edwin is probably the biggest), but the FO clearly knows what they’re doing. The farm is one of the deepest in baseball, and the only bad money on the books after this year is the last year of Tulo’s deal.

 

They’re interesting to watch operate because they’re risk-averse to the extreme, but when you look at the depth of the farm, you start to see the cumulative effect of years of boring decisions that make sense. The team is being built to stay good once they turn the corner. A team with the financial flexibility of Rogers and a FO that’s borderline obsessive about value has a chance to be very good for a long time.

[DigitalRock]

I just think they could have spent a bit more to make the team at least more competitive this year while still rebuilding

[jimedmonds]

I definitely think 2017 was the year to rebuild and would have commended them for having the stones to have done so then (assuming it was their decision to make). They also received pitiful returns for key veteran players and could have extracted more value. This team would still be what it is in 2019 and with the same timeline, but have more high end prospects in the pipeline.

 

Having said that, I still give Shapiro and Atkins a lukewarm thumbs up, if only by virtue that they didn't sign Bautista, EE, and Donaldson to those massive, lengthy contracts that the casuals were clamoring for. That buys them 3 more seasons in my books simply because I would have stopped watching the Jays entirely if they had a committed $55-70M committed to an injury prone 33 year old, 36 year old DH, and another 38 year old DH who isn't even playing baseball right now.

[Krylian]

I have more confidence now than I did before.

 

I wanted to see the tear down happen much sooner, but I understand that Rogers had a big hand in that not happening. But now that it is, my belief has grown that they're gonna do it the right way.

[Brownie19]

Man, even the Happ returns don't move the needle much... One of the hot-ticket chips at the deadline.

 

You're forming opinions based on topics you know little to nothing about. That's really dumb. You don't know what the trade market was for Happ and have no idea if they got the best value (or little value) in return. The market suggests that rentals aren't fetching the type of prospects they used to (as teams have smartened up and learned not to give away assets like they used to).

 

You should probably step back a bit and acknowledge that as fans, we have about 10% of the information the FO has. Judging their decisions based on what we know is really shortsighted. This FO seemingly has an excellent process - that's probably all we really can judge.

[Angrioter]

Good job so far, i just don't want to become in the new Cleveland (8 Elite player + elite manager + 17 s*** players)

[glory]

Rebuilding sucks. It's painful to watch and feels like it takes forever (this season is a week old and I'm already tired), but they had no choice after 2016. The team was old and on the decline. Clearly the rebuild should have started at the trade deadline in 2017, as others have said, but I don't think that was a Shatkins decision. As is the farm is in great shape and they were spending heavy on the international market. They just re-signed Grichuk so you know they'll spend on someone they like. It's going to be a bit of a process now. Hopefully not a long one, but who knows how much rope they have.

 

Jays are getting like 10k a night. Rogers isn't going to sit there and accept a 5 year rebuild. They might see the attendance this year and tell Shapiro to spend for 2020. That's how they operate.

[G-Snarls]

We’re in year two of a rebuild necessitated by the short window opened by the previous regime. There have been a few mistakes (misreading the market and signing Morales instead of Edwin is probably the biggest), but the FO clearly knows what they’re doing. The farm is one of the deepest in baseball, and the only bad money on the books after this year is the last year of Tulo’s deal.

 

They’re interesting to watch operate because they’re risk-averse to the extreme, but when you look at the depth of the farm, you start to see the cumulative effect of years of boring decisions that make sense. The team is being built to stay good once they turn the corner. A team with the financial flexibility of Rogers and a FO that’s borderline obsessive about value has a chance to be very good for a long time.

 

Agree on all counts

 

Though I hope when the time is right they'll spend some money. They can afford that here more so than in Cleveland.

 

The risk is having too many uncompetitive years and losing fan interest. It's happening right now. The fans come back when the team is winning but its not immediate and too many years like this one and the team is easily forgotten by many fans.

[G-Snarls]

Also would be awful to see Vlad playing for nothing but indivual awards tha way Delgado and Halladay did

[Brownie19]

Jays are getting like 10k a night. Rogers isn't going to sit there and accept a 5 year rebuild. They might see the attendance this year and tell Shapiro to spend for 2020. That's how they operate.

 

I don't know about that.

 

If they build a middling, .500 team, history suggests they'll draw 22K - 25K per night.

 

If they build a sustained contender, history suggests they'll be one of the best draws in the MLB.

 

If you're the Owner - would you accept 2-3 years of 10K for the shot at Option 2? Or would you throw up your hands and demand they go back to Option 1?

[Frag]

It's funny - I completely forgot that this regime was part of the 2016 and 2017 seasons. It's been 4 years, yet feels relatively new still.

 

Anyway, I mildly approve of their job so far. I wrote this in Bluebird Banter:

 

This feels like the true start to the rebuild, so it’s hard for me to determine with confidence where the team will go. I like the farm, and the way that management is handling the team’s minor league system (Vlad Jr. service time manipulations aside). Their trades… could be better, which knocked them down a notch IMO. Also, Atkins needs to learn how to communicate with the media, which isn’t exactly a GM thing. However, if you want this city to be off your back, it doesn’t help making blunders that would make Joe Biden blush.

[Dick_Pole]

misreading the market and signing Morales instead of Edwin is probably the biggest

 

I disagree. If you look at the Morales/Encarnacion/Bautista situation holistically, they 95% read the market correctly. Morales' contract was better than Edwin's and light years ahead of what Bautista might have gotten if Beeston was still around.

[Slade]

Love it dude 1 week of poor play and these threads start popping up.

 

This is what rebuilding is, it serves no purpose to add a couple more mediocre pieces to be marginally better this year. Can't start improving until we know what we have, so let all these kids play and see what sticks. It's going to be ugly but it's necessary.

 

Our farm system looks really good right now, promising players at every level.

 

Some things I think are fair the Morales deal was awful and they had to eat that mistake.

[Dick_Pole]

 

Jays are getting like 10k a night. Rogers isn't going to sit there and accept a 5 year rebuild. They might see the attendance this year and tell Shapiro to spend for 2020. That's how they operate.

 

I don't know about that.

 

If they build a middling, .500 team, history suggests they'll draw 22K - 25K per night.

 

If they build a sustained contender, history suggests they'll be one of the best draws in the MLB.

 

If you're the Owner - would you accept 2-3 years of 10K for the shot at Option 2? Or would you throw up your hands and demand they go back to Option 1?

 

How is glory incorrect. I hope Rogers does spend in 2020. Hell, I wished they spent money this year to improve the team.

 

Spending does not mean trading away prospects.

[Boxcar]

Nah, I love my Jays. The dome looked pretty bare for the opening series and after though, can't be a good sign. Hopefully Vlad will restore some goodwill with the casuals.

 

This fanbase is generally one of the worst in the league. Fickle, dumb, fairweather and very opinionated despite these things. No one should be seriously considering any kind of consensus from Jays fans.

 

Stacking up on pitching prospects is generally a bad idea, and the farm is rife with talent. You have your Groshans, Vlad, Bo, Smith types but then some guys with high upside who don't get mentioned like Stevenson, Kirk, Lopez, Young, Spanberger, etc. I'm not really sure what they could have done better to put themselves in a spot to compete by 2020. There's basically no money on the books and a ton of intriguing talent on the way.

[BTS]

It's funny - I completely forgot that this regime was part of the 2016 and 2017 seasons. It's been 4 years, yet feels relatively new still.

 

Anyway, I mildly approve of their job so far. I wrote this in Bluebird Banter:

 

I think they've been crushing it on the trade front. The vast majority have been inconsequential, but if the ones that matter, it's hard to say they've come out on the losing end of any:

 

- getting Pannone and Samad Taylor for a rental Joe Smith

- getting Aledmys Diaz for JB Woodman

- getting Grichuk for Leone and Conner Greene

- getting Giles, Paulino, and PErez for Osuna even after Osuna nuked his value

- Thornton for Diaz looks like a solid move

 

And then you have guys like Espinal, Waguespack, Wall and Spanberger that were picked up for mediocre pending FAs like Loup, Oh, and Pearce and could make those deals look great if they become MLB players. I guess the jury is still out on the Happ trade.

 

Their trade history is kind of a microcosm of the way they work in general: low risk moves with little or no downside that form the foundation of a deep system on the aggregate. I'm not sure I'd say they've made a bad trade yet.

[Terminator]

Their trades have been good and I like the moves to cut bait on the veterans. I'd have to look at all the FA they've signed but off the top of my head a lot of them have sucked. But since they haven't given out many big contracts they aren't really doing any lasting damage. All that said, the team is awful right now.

 

I'd probably give them like a B+ or A-?

[Laika]

They also deserve credit for a lot of under the hood stuff that is going on.

 

The organization is improving from within with better systems, better coaches, better minor league pay, etc. You're probably going to see and hopefully enjoy better business practices at the ballpark. Dunedin is getting a massive upgrade. Hopefully the Dome can see one some day soon. Barry Davis is gone and now has a Tom Petty cover band. Hopefully Buck and Pat are gone when their contracts expire. These are all Shatkins things - Shatkins successes. Shatkins, Shatkins, Shatkins!

[wilko]

I think they're doing a great job so far. Most of the trades they've done were pretty good... minus a few but a lot of that were circumstantial (JD).

I'm sure the Jays will suck this year, possibly next but it's still fun baseball to watch. I'd much rather this version of the Jays than watching them half ass try to compete with a bunch of old dudes.

[BTS]

Their trades have been good and I like the moves to cut bait on the veterans. I'd have to look at all the FA they've signed but off the top of my head a lot of them have sucked. But since they haven't given out many big contracts they aren't really doing any lasting damage. All that said, the team is awful right now.

 

I'd probably give them like a B+ or A-?

 

Happ/3/36

Morales 3/33

Estrada 2/26

Gurriel 7/22

Pearce 2/12

Garcia 1/10

Granderson 1/5

 

cheap 1-year MLB deals for Thole, Barney, Floyd, F. Morales, Howell, Smith, Oh, Shoemaker, Phelps, and Hudson

 

I think Morales and Garcia are the only ones to blow up. A bunch of the 1-year deals too, but Smith, Oh, and maybe Shoemaker worked out very well.

 

It will be interesting to see how Gurriel pans out. He hasn't displayed a single MLB tool this season, and he's 25. That has potential to be a 22M mistake.

[Frag]

I think they've been crushing it on the trade front. The vast majority have been inconsequential, but if the ones that matter, it's hard to say they've come out on the losing end of any:

 

- getting Pannone and Samad Taylor for a rental Joe Smith

- getting Aledmys Diaz for JB Woodman

- getting Grichuk for Leone and Conner Greene

- getting Giles, Paulino, and PErez for Osuna even after Osuna nuked his value

- Thornton for Diaz looks like a solid move

 

And then you have guys like Espinal, Waguespack, Wall and Spanberger that were picked up for mediocre pending FAs like Loup, Oh, and Pearce and could make those deals look great if they become MLB players. I guess the jury is still out on the Happ trade.

 

Their trade history is kind of a microcosm of the way they work in general: low risk moves with little or no downside that form the foundation of a deep system on the aggregate. I'm not sure I'd say they've made a bad trade yet.

 

I see your point. Maybe it's because I kind of prefer getting high risk prospects with high ceilings, but the Jays have stocked up what could be a top 5 farm system (Vlad Jr. helps, but Bo Bichette was a Shatkins pick).

 

Also, my weird perception of some ghostly GM taking over the Jays in 2016 and 2017, for some odd reason. lol

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frag

[Frag]

Happ/3/36

Morales 3/33

Estrada 2/26

Gurriel 7/22

Pearce 2/12

Garcia 1/10

Granderson 1/5

 

cheap 1-year MLB deals for Thole, Barney, Floyd, F. Morales, Howell, Smith, Oh, Shoemaker, Phelps, and Hudson

 

I think Morales and Garcia are the only ones to blow up. A bunch of the 1-year deals too, but Smith, Oh, and maybe Shoemaker worked out very well.

 

It will be interesting to see how Gurriel pans out. He hasn't displayed a single MLB tool this season, and he's 25. That has potential to be a 22M mistake.

 

Outside of Morales (I forgot about the Garcia signing), I have liked their FA signings quite a bit. Good value for relatively cheap contracts.

[Ray]

I see your point. Maybe it's because I kind of prefer getting high risk prospects with high ceilings, but the Jays have stocked up what could be a top 5 farm system (Vlad Jr. helps, but Bo Bichette was a Shatkins pick).

 

Also, my weird perception of some ghostly GM taking over the Jays in 2016 and 2017, for some odd reason. lol

 

I'm not sure we ever really had a chance to get high-ceiling prospects given the majority of our trade assets were not great and/or on expiring contracts. We did end up getting Hector Perez for Osuna, and he's as high risk as it gets.

 

The real test is going to be what they get for guys like Sanchez, Stroman, and Giles. We could be looking at getting back Top 100 prospects for all 3.

[Abomination]

I'm not sure we ever really had a chance to get high-ceiling prospects given the majority of our trade assets were not great and/or on expiring contracts. We did end up getting Hector Perez for Osuna, and he's as high risk as it gets.

 

The real test is going to be what they get for guys like Sanchez, Stroman, and Giles. We could be looking at getting back Top 100 prospects for all 3.

 

I feel like at least one of Stroman or Sanchez will get extended (assuming they don't completely crap the bed in the first half).

[BTS]

I feel like at least one of Stroman or Sanchez will get extended (assuming they don't completely crap the bed in the first half).

 

I'm pretty open to the idea of exploring an extension with Giles too if he's still healthy in a few months. He's had no arm issues, has been consistently excellent, and might be a bit undervalued because of his ERA fluctuations. If the team can get him for like 3/25 + a team option or something later in the summer, that's preferable to trading him IMO.

[Ray]

I feel like at least one of Stroman or Sanchez will get extended (assuming they don't completely crap the bed in the first half).

 

Kyle Hendricks was due to be a free agent in 2021 similar to those two and got 4 years $55M. He could be an interesting baseline for a potential extension. I don't see either topping what he got. Hendricks is better and much more consistent.

[Abomination]

I'm pretty open to the idea of exploring an extension with Giles too if he's still healthy in a few months. He's had no arm issues, has been consistently excellent, and might be a bit undervalued because of his ERA fluctuations. If the team can get him for like 3/25 + a team option or something later in the summer, that's preferable to trading him IMO.

 

I think I'd rather trade him, assuming the return was worthwhile. He already has a spotty behavior record, and I'm not sure he'll do so well on a pure, rebuilding team. I'd rather cash in at the deadline before he torpedoes his value. Someone stupid is gonna need a good closer.

[Abomination]

Kyle Hendricks was due to be a free agent in 2021 similar to those two and got 4 years $55M. He could be an interesting baseline for a potential extension. I don't see either topping what he got. Hendricks is better and much more consistent.

 

I'd be fine with giving Stroman 4/55 right now, and probably even fine giving that to Sanchez too if he can make the trade deadline with no blister issues.