Is Vlad Jr the best prospect ever?

[Spanky99]

I knew this was coming from someone. I personally don't like much from ESPN, so I tend to agree. However this goes to an overall problem I have with baseball analytics... All these different sites have different numbers/interpretations.. How can you put much stock into something with so many differing interpretations...

 

The chart in general does support my point though..

 

fWAR >>>>>> bWAR>>> most other projections.

 

Edit: Oh, and not really.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Spanky99

[Spanky99]

2 tool player, not 3..

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jd-martinezs-defense-impacts-trade-value/c-210030328

 

EDIT: Confused, are you talking about JD or Vlad Jr?

 

Vlad Jr, and now you have me confused linking JD Martinez?

[jaysblue]

Billy Beane was the best prospect ever. Had all the tools!

[xposbrad]

Definitely not, I think he actually ends up being a 1B or DH. He does have a great bat though.

[Spanky99]

Why do people chuck young 3B's with a well above average arm from 3B to 1B or DH, the outfield is a thing for these guys?

[Orgfiller]

Why do people chuck young 3B's with a well above average arm from 3B to 1B or DH, the outfield is a thing for these guys?

 

Because he's fat, Spanky. He's halfway to the Miguel Cabrera body type at age 19 which doesn't bode well for a future 3B home unless he has prodigious lateral movement in spite of his size.

[Superdood]

He's definitely not the best prospect of all time, that easily goes to A-Rod or Griffey Jr. I would say.

 

Possibly the best bat of all time like others have said though.

 

All I care about is that Vladdy can crush because I have him in my fantasy keeper league lol

[Spanky99]

Because he's fat, Spanky. He's halfway to the Miguel Cabrera body type at age 19 which doesn't bode well for a future 3B home unless he has prodigious lateral movement in spite of his size.

 

3B to LF is viable.

[Bobthe4th]

3B to LF is viable.

 

I really don't think it is for Vlad. If (when) he eventually moves off of 3B it's because he's too fat.

[Maico450]

I'm sure curious to see Vlad Jr play 3B in ST this year, I want to see his reflexes on hard hit balls, and his agility on fielding infield rollers.

[BTS]

Why do people chuck young 3B's with a well above average arm from 3B to 1B or DH, the outfield is a thing for these guys?

 

I have the opposite question: Why are people so eager to use a fat 19-year old masher at a position where he'll almost certainly be a below-average defender? The game has changed. You can buy a Moustakas or Asdrubal Cabrera on a 1-year deal as cheap as you can buy a Justin Smoak or CJ Cron for 1B. Instead of playing a guy at the toughest defensive position at which he's not a complete tire fire, why not play him at the toughest position at which he's actually average or a bit better?

 

I like the look of

1B - Vlad

3B - Moustakas

 

a lot more than I like the look of

1B - Smoak

3B - Vlad

 

And in the current climate, it costs the same amount of money.

[KevinGregg]

I have the opposite question: Why are people so eager to use a fat 19-year old masher at a position where he'll almost certainly be a below-average defender? The game has changed. You can buy a Moustakas or Asdrubal Cabrera on a 1-year deal as cheap as you can buy a Justin Smoak or CJ Cron for 1B. Instead of playing a guy at the toughest defensive position at which he's not a complete tire fire, why not play him at the toughest position at which he's actually average or a bit better?

 

I like the look of

1B - Vlad

3B - Moustakas

 

a lot more than I like the look of

1B - Smoak

3B - Vlad

 

And in the current climate, it costs the same amount of money.

 

This is a good point. I think everyone just wants to see what hes capable of before moving him to first. I know I expected him to get moved at least before he hit AA because that's where s*** kinda gets real. But he managed to stick at the position and apparently has made huge strides there. Not to mention it's where he says he wants to play.

 

I'd give him the year at third to see what hes got. If hes a total tire fire then move him to first asap. But if he is already pretty good and if there is still noticeable improvement in his game as the season goes on might as well just let him ride it out in what is currently being billed as a building year.

 

Of course all of this changes if the Jays are starting to compete and make noise. Then we just want the best team we can make and all bets are off. At that point its sink or swim for vlad at third

[Bobthe4th]

This is a good point. I think everyone just wants to see what hes capable of before moving him to first. I know I expected him to get moved at least before he hit AA because that's where s*** kinda gets real. But he managed to stick at the position and apparently has made huge strides there. Not to mention it's where he says he wants to play.

 

I'd give him the year at third to see what hes got. If hes a total tire fire then move him to first asap. But if he is already pretty good and if there is still noticeable improvement in his game as the season goes on might as well just let him ride it out in what is currently being billed as a building year.

 

Of course all of this changes if the Jays are starting to compete and make noise. Then we just want the best team we can make and all bets are off. At that point its sink or swim for vlad at third

 

Exactly, unless and until we are ready to compete, it's basically irrelevant whether we can fill out the roster between at 1B or 3B with a better / cheaper player. In isolation Vlad would be more valuable if he can play a passable 3B, it's where he's played in the minors, and it's where he apparently would prefer to play.

[Spanky99]

I have the opposite question: Why are people so eager to use a fat 19-year old masher at a position where he'll almost certainly be a below-average defender? The game has changed. You can buy a Moustakas or Asdrubal Cabrera on a 1-year deal as cheap as you can buy a Justin Smoak or CJ Cron for 1B. Instead of playing a guy at the toughest defensive position at which he's not a complete tire fire, why not play him at the toughest position at which he's actually average or a bit better?

 

I like the look of

1B - Vlad

3B - Moustakas

 

a lot more than I like the look of

1B - Smoak

3B - Vlad

 

And in the current climate, it costs the same amount of money.

 

You have to see how he handles the position first, he'll likely have a long leash(longer than a season, unless he's a tire fire), lets see how he plays. Moving from 3rd to LF would be the next move. I understand what you're saying though.

[Laika]

I hate prospect projection talk where people try to figure out where a prospect will "end up".

 

Players will "end up" wherever the MLB roster dictates. Depending on his teammates, Vlad will either play 1B/DH or be a s***** 3B. It is objectively good to try to develop your prospects with as much versatility as possible (and the best way to do this is to simply have them play the position at the top of their reasonable skill set).

[glory]

I have the opposite question: Why are people so eager to use a fat 19-year old masher at a position where he'll almost certainly be a below-average defender? The game has changed. You can buy a Moustakas or Asdrubal Cabrera on a 1-year deal as cheap as you can buy a Justin Smoak or CJ Cron for 1B. Instead of playing a guy at the toughest defensive position at which he's not a complete tire fire, why not play him at the toughest position at which he's actually average or a bit better?

 

I like the look of

1B - Vlad

3B - Moustakas

 

a lot more than I like the look of

1B - Smoak

3B - Vlad

 

And in the current climate, it costs the same amount of money.

 

Yeah I don't know why the team is so adamant about keeping him at third. He is a big dude and clearly won't be above average defensively. He'll be closer to bad than good, most likely. Just move him to 1B, let him hit like a mad man, and then find a good defensive 3B.

 

That is my one criticism of Shatkins. They don't give two shits about defense. Signing Galvis was the first time I can remember them valuing it at all. We are going to see a bunch of hitters with offensive upside hemorrhaging value defensively for no reason at all.

[jays4life19]

This is a part of a article behind a paywall that had some of Vladdy coaches talking about his defence from his recent AFL stint.

 

"“I’ve seen flashes of great plays – diving backhands, diving forehands, being able to pick short hops, barehanded plays. He’s shown the whole gamut of what a big-league third baseman needs to be able to do. Now it’s just a matter of him being able to do it consistently.”

 

New Hampshire and fall-league coach Andy Fermin, also the son of a major-leaguer, said Guerrero put in extra work on first-step quickness and getting good angles on ground balls from the beginning of spring training. His gradual improvement has carried over to the fall league.

 

“He’s been great over there at third base,” Fermin said. “We just continue to work and try to get him in a position to try to win a Gold Glove in the big leagues.”

 

Fermin may be the first baseball insider to mention Guerrero and Gold Glove in the same sentence. Granted, Guerrero has made some sensational plays. He has been charged with one error in his first 17 fall-league games and committed only seven in 95 games during the regular season. But occasionally, hard shots and tricky hops that a major-league third baseman would handle get past him. As Clapp says, building consistency is the key.

 

But given Guerrero’s hit tool, the Blue Jays would be content with adequacy on defence. His coaches say he is committed to more than that. Watch him practice, and that quickly becomes evident."

 

I really don't see the harm in running him out there this year when win's won't really matter and seeing what we got. It's not like the reports are terrible.

[Boxcar]

I hate prospect projection talk where people try to figure out where a prospect will "end up".

 

Players will "end up" wherever the MLB roster dictates. Depending on his teammates, Vlad will either play 1B/DH or be a s***** 3B. It is objectively good to try to develop your prospects with as much versatility as possible (and the best way to do this is to simply have them play the position at the top of their reasonable skill set).

 

It also very rarely ends up the way they project anyway.

[Boxcar]

Yeah I don't know why the team is so adamant about keeping him at third. He is a big dude and clearly won't be above average defensively. He'll be closer to bad than good, most likely. Just move him to 1B, let him hit like a mad man, and then find a good defensive 3B.

 

That is my one criticism of Shatkins. They don't give two shits about defense. Signing Galvis was the first time I can remember them valuing it at all. We are going to see a bunch of hitters with offensive upside hemorrhaging value defensively for no reason at all.

 

Grichuk? Diaz? They're largely still playing with the hand they were previously dealt.

[BTS]

Grichuk? Diaz? They're largely still playing with the hand they were previously dealt.

 

Diaz isn't a good defensive shortstop.

[Boxcar]

Diaz isn't a good defensive shortstop.

 

He's about as good as Galvis.

[Spanky99]

lol

[Sorrow]

The DRS difference between Galvis (1400 innings) and Diaz (800 innings) was 16 DRS for Galvis. They're about the same range wise. Diaz was a poor defensive SS but not the butcher that Gurriel was.

[TheHurl]

He's about as good as Galvis.

 

please defend.

[Terminator]

Diaz is barely acceptable at SS but he can hit so overall hes okay. Galvis is pretty good defensively which allows him to be useful because his bat kinda sux.

[Krylian]

A legit question would be is Vladdy the best Blue Jays prospect ever?

[Captain Adama]

A legit question would be is Vladdy the best Blue Jays prospect ever?

 

Easily.

[Jimcanuck]

A legit question would be is Vladdy the best Blue Jays prospect ever?

 

Alex Rios, Delgado, and Halladay would be the closest contenders. Vlad wins.

[Krylian]

Alex Rios, Delgado, and Halladay would be the closest contenders. Vlad wins.

 

I think Carlos is the most comparable.

[Boxcar]

I think Carlos is the most comparable.

 

People have quickly forgotten Brett Lawrie and Travis Snider. There was legit discussion whether Lawrie would be better than Trout.