Is Vlad Jr the best prospect ever?

[G-Snarls]

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-best-mlb-prospect-ever/c-303267350?partnerId=ed-13364592-1122498993

[BTS]

Haven't read the article, but the answer is no.

[G-Snarls]

Haven't read the article, but the answer is no.

 

ARod?

[Bobthe4th]

A-Rod definitely a better all round prospect as he was a shortstop.

 

If we’re including pitchers then Stephen Strasburg was just as hyped as Vlad too.

[Pendleton]

Not enough separation with the bat to make up for other super prospects having additional star caliber tools at premium positions.

[BTS]

ARod?

 

Has to be. Vlad might legit be the best hitting prospect we've seen, but he's going to be a negative on the field and on the bases, probably.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Haven't read the article, but the answer is no.

 

Yet another Glowing Example BTS of why you

Should not be a MOD and not allowed to be in control or in charge of anything !

 

You bring nothing to the Table in the adding to dicussions other your self inflated ego and

Opinions which you seldom back up or expand upon so as to not open your mouth

And remove all Doubt as to what you are

A Full of ******** Coward !!!

 

I expected your Alt or Point and Click hive member Boxy will be on shortly to defend your honour and respond for you !

 

Have a Nice Day ! Go Jays Go !!!

[Angrioter]

Best hitting prospect maybe.

[Carlos Danger]

Yet another Glowing Example BTS of why you

Should not be a MOD and not allowed to be in control or in charge of anything !

 

You bring nothing to the Table in the adding to dicussions other your self inflated ego and

Opinions which you seldom back up or expand upon so as to not open your mouth

And remove all Doubt as to what you are

A Full of ******** Coward !!!

 

I expected your Alt or Point and Click hive member Boxy will be on shortly to defend your honour and respond for you !

 

Have a Nice Day ! Go Jays Go !!!

 

In this case BTS is right. No one needs to read an article to substantiate that Vlad is not a 5 tool player, not even 3 tool..

 

There is no way. Is he even better than Acuna.. arguably no, we will have to wait and see..

[Orgfiller]

ARod?

 

A-Rod and Griffey Jr., probably in that order. I also think hindsight clouds people's memory of how Bryce Harper was treated when he was just an amateur. Scouts would have given him 80 grade power when he was like 15, the amount of buzz he had was on another level, Trout wasn't even ranked above him in a number of publications and he also had the 5 tool superstar ceiling label after his thorough destruction of the minors.

[Krylian]

One of the best bats ever. But it stops there.

[TheHurl]

Different time and era. When Pujols or even Miggy were coming up their games weren't on TV, you had to buy prospect videos. Even getting stats was difficult and sometimes not up to date (It's just back to the old board days that I remember minorleaguecentral as the only site updating minor league stats daily). So the hype is different. Prospects weren't talked about daily it was at certain times of the year (when the BA list would hit, at draft time and in September). I would say that Vlad is the most hyped up top prospect ever who wasn't on a major league contract. And his bat appears to play with the best.

[Spanky99]

Yet another Glowing Example BTS of why you

Should not be a MOD and not allowed to be in control or in charge of anything !

 

You bring nothing to the Table in the adding to dicussions other your self inflated ego and

Opinions which you seldom back up or expand upon so as to not open your mouth

And remove all Doubt as to what you are

A Full of ******** Coward !!!

 

I expected your Alt or Point and Click hive member Boxy will be on shortly to defend your honour and respond for you !

 

Have a Nice Day ! Go Jays Go !!!

 

lol

[Spanky99]

In this case BTS is right. No one needs to read an article to substantiate that Vlad is not a 5 tool player, not even 3 tool..

 

There is no way. Is he even better than Acuna.. arguably no, we will have to wait and see..

 

Wat?

[Boxcar]

Wat?

 

It's because scouting grades are retarded. Hitting is more than contact and power but scouting reduces it to that. Vlad won't be fast, probably won't be a great fielder though the arm might be pretty good.

 

So plus hit + power, MAYBE + arm. 2-3 tool player fits.

 

In essence he isn't wrong.

 

Yeah, how does that feel, bitch?

[Dick_Pole]

"Is Vlad Jr the best prospect ever?" or is "x the best prospect ever?" is a stupid question to ask. If the Jays brought him up last year he wouldn't be considered a prospect at all. If the Jays kept him in the minors another two years to swat a 1.500 OPS he probably would be. "Most hyped prospect" is the only one that can really make any sense being asked. Might as well ask if Pluto is the best dwarf planet ever or just a really s***** regular planet.

 

Just look at the debate that's happening. "He can't be because he's a 3-tool player". Well what if his three tools produce more value than a player with 5-tools? What if he puts up Barry Bonds numbers as a career DH? Is he the most valuable prospect ever then? We'll find out in about 20 years I guess so I hope the admin has secured this URL for a while. That's the kind of dumb what-if argument that can happen when dumb questions are asked.

 

The only relevant questions are "Does he have the best trade value?" or "Does he have the highest WAR/salary projection/potential?"

[Spanky99]

It's because scouting grades are retarded. Hitting is more than contact and power but scouting reduces it to that. Vlad won't be fast, probably won't be a great fielder though the arm might be pretty good.

 

So plus hit + power, MAYBE + arm. 2-3 tool player fits.

 

In essence he isn't wrong.

 

Yeah, how does that feel, bitch?

 

His arm is between a 6 and 7, if he plays passable D at 3rd he's a 3 Tool player, you're a dumbass, lol.

[Olerud363]

The five tool system isn't a great way to evaluate how "great" Vlad will be.

 

If he hits really well and can put up 0's defensively he will be at Griffey, Pujols, A-Rod, approaching Trout level (9-10 WAR guys)

If he hits really well and is a big negative defensively he will be at the Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera level (6-8 WAR guys)

 

So if he's in the first category he's at another level, but you still might not call him a "5 tool" player.

[Carlos Danger]

The five tool system isn't a great way to evaluate how "great" Vlad will be.

 

If he hits really well and can put up 0's defensively he will be at Griffey, Pujols, A-Rod, approaching Trout level (9-10 WAR guys)

If he hits really well and is a big negative defensively he will be at the Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera level (6-8 WAR guys)

 

So if he's in the first category he's at another level, but you still might not call him a "5 tool" player.

 

Yes, but all those guys in the first category played plus D at their positions in their heyday as you point out.

 

If he is in the second category then he is by no means the best prospect ever... So considering a tool is D, if he is not plus D, I just don't see how he could compete with just his bat against guys like noted in your first list.

 

So, how many tools a guy has definitely reflects on WAR IMO. I just don't see how you could beat out your peers if they have similar or even a little less batting numbers but also have plus D and speed..

[Olerud363]

Yes, but all those guys in the first category played plus D at their positions in their heyday as you point out.

 

If he is in the second category then he is by no means the best prospect ever... So considering a tool is D, if he is not plus D, I just don't see how he could compete with just his bat against guys like noted in your first list.

 

So, how many tools a guy has definitely reflects on WAR IMO. I just don't see how you could beat out your peers if they have similar or even a little less batting numbers but also have plus D and speed..

 

How many tools a player has does not = WAR

 

Andre Dawson early 80s 5 tools = 5 WAR

Barry Bonds early to mid 90s 5 tools = 10 WAR

Barry Bonds early 2000s (bloated with Steroids and old) 2 tools = 12 WAR

 

Vladdy could be a 2 tool 4 WAR player - .300 .400 .500 with negative defense

or a 2 tool 10 WAR player - .340 .450 .600 with average defense.

 

I guess a binary 5 tool system is just a little stupid.

 

Maybe a 3 way system, like fangraphs has, where people rate what he's going to be offensively, baserunning, and defensivelly and roughtly translate that to WAR would help us communicate better.

 

Like maybe I think that Vladdy is going to be a .380 .480 .700 hitter with average defense and baserunning, which might be 0 80 0 and translate to 11 WAR or something

 

and they say "Olerud you are a nut case Vladdy will realistically be a .310 .400 .550 hitter with negative D, which puts him as a 0 50 -15 and 5 WAR"

 

Just saying that system would allow people to convey their projection better than the 5 tool system.

[KevinGregg]

How many tools a player has does not = WAR

 

Andre Dawson early 80s 5 tools = 5 WAR

Barry Bonds early to mid 90s 5 tools = 10 WAR

Barry Bonds early 2000s (bloated with Steroids and old) 2 tools = 12 WAR

 

Vladdy could be a 2 tool 4 WAR player - .300 .400 .500 with negative defense

or a 2 tool 10 WAR player - .340 .450 .600 with average defense.

 

I guess a binary 5 tool system is just a little stupid.

 

Maybe a 3 way system, like fangraphs has, where people rate what he's going to be offensively, baserunning, and defensivelly and roughtly translate that to WAR would help us communicate better.

 

Like maybe I think that Vladdy is going to be a .380 .480 .700 hitter with average defense and baserunning, which might be 0 80 0 and translate to 11 WAR or something

 

and they say "Olerud you are a nut case Vladdy will realistically be a .310 .400 .550 hitter with negative D, which puts him as a 0 50 -15 and 5 WAR"

 

Just saying that system would allow people to convey their projection better than the 5 tool system.

 

this is a good post. the 5 tools are so outdated and have so much overlap...

 

Hitting and hitting for power are obviously utilizing many of the same hand-eye and acceleration skills. Speed and arm are obviously big parts of defense.

 

As it stands now we have to break down the 5 tools to try to get an idea what it is telling you about a player's baserunning, hitting, and defense. Might as well just make those the new 3 tools

[Carlos Danger]

Bonds 2 tool WAR was with steroids as you pointed out.

 

Look at the 2018 list of top 25 WAR guys.. Of the position players in the top 10, most all are plus D.

 

Look at JD Martinez vs Betts. The offensive numbers are not too different. Obviously JD is a DH, but just goes to show very hard to win a WAR war as a position player with two tools.

 

2018 Season WAR Leaders

RK PLAYER WAR OFF DEF WAA TRPG ORPG RAA WAAWP

1 Mookie Betts 10.9 8.7 1.8 8.9 5.1 4.6 86.8 0.6

2 Aaron Nola 10.5 0 0 8.8 4.3 2.1 71.5 0.8

3 Mike Trout 10.2 9.2 1.2 8.1 5.1 4.6 79.7 0.6

4 Jacob deGrom 9.6 0 0 7.8 4.3 2.3 64.1 0.7

5 Max Scherzer 8.8 0 0 7 4.3 2.6 57.8 0.7

6 Kyle Freeland 8.4 0 0 6.8 4.3 2.6 56.5 0.7

7 Matt Chapman 8.2 5 3.5 6.1 4.8 4.6 56.8 0.5

8 Francisco Lindor 7.9 6.3 2.5 5.6 4.8 4.6 52.2 0.5

Jose Ramirez 7.9 7.4 0.8 5.6 4.9 4.6 53.1 0.5

10 Christian Yelich 7.6 7.3 -0.4 5.7 4.7 4.3 56.8 0.5

11 Blake Snell 7.5 0 0 5.8 4.6 2.9 52 0.7

12 Lorenzo Cain 6.9 4.9 2.4 5 4.5 4.3 49.5 0.5

Chris Sale 6.9 0 0 5.4 4.6 2.8 48.4 0.7

Alex Bregman 6.9 7.5 -0.1 4.6 4.9 4.6 43.5 0.5

15 J.D. Martinez 6.4 6.8 -1.4 4.2 4.9 4.6 39.5 0.5

16 Javier Baez 6.3 5.3 1.7 4.2 4.5 4.3 42 0.5

17 Justin Verlander 6.2 0 0 4.3 4.6 3.4 40.1 0.6

Andrelton Simmons 6.2 3.9 3.1 4.1 4.7 4.6 37.8 0.5

19 Mitch Haniger 6.1 5.5 0.2 3.9 4.8 4.6 35.3 0.5

Freddie Freeman 6.1 4.9 0.2 3.9 4.5 4.3 39.4 0.5

21 Corey Kluber 5.9 0 0 3.9 4.6 3.5 36.8 0.6

22 Trevor Bauer 5.8 0 0 4.1 4.6 3.3 38.1 0.6

23 Nolan Arenado 5.6 5.2 0.7 3.6 4.5 4.3 36.1 0.5

Trevor Story

[Boxcar]

How many tools a player has does not = WAR

 

Andre Dawson early 80s 5 tools = 5 WAR

Barry Bonds early to mid 90s 5 tools = 10 WAR

Barry Bonds early 2000s (bloated with Steroids and old) 2 tools = 12 WAR

 

Vladdy could be a 2 tool 4 WAR player - .300 .400 .500 with negative defense

or a 2 tool 10 WAR player - .340 .450 .600 with average defense.

 

I guess a binary 5 tool system is just a little stupid.

 

Maybe a 3 way system, like fangraphs has, where people rate what he's going to be offensively, baserunning, and defensivelly and roughtly translate that to WAR would help us communicate better.

 

Like maybe I think that Vladdy is going to be a .380 .480 .700 hitter with average defense and baserunning, which might be 0 80 0 and translate to 11 WAR or something

 

and they say "Olerud you are a nut case Vladdy will realistically be a .310 .400 .550 hitter with negative D, which puts him as a 0 50 -15 and 5 WAR"

 

Just saying that system would allow people to convey their projection better than the 5 tool system.

 

I do not think you know what binary means

[Spanky99]

Bonds 2 tool WAR was with steroids as you pointed out.

 

Look at the 2018 list of top 25 WAR guys.. Of the position players in the top 10, most all are plus D.

 

Look at JD Martinez vs Betts. The offensive numbers are not too different. Obviously JD is a DH, but just goes to show very hard to win a WAR war as a position player with two tools.

 

2018 Season WAR Leaders

RK PLAYER WAR OFF DEF WAA TRPG ORPG RAA WAAWP

1 Mookie Betts 10.9 8.7 1.8 8.9 5.1 4.6 86.8 0.6

2 Aaron Nola 10.5 0 0 8.8 4.3 2.1 71.5 0.8

3 Mike Trout 10.2 9.2 1.2 8.1 5.1 4.6 79.7 0.6

4 Jacob deGrom 9.6 0 0 7.8 4.3 2.3 64.1 0.7

5 Max Scherzer 8.8 0 0 7 4.3 2.6 57.8 0.7

6 Kyle Freeland 8.4 0 0 6.8 4.3 2.6 56.5 0.7

7 Matt Chapman 8.2 5 3.5 6.1 4.8 4.6 56.8 0.5

8 Francisco Lindor 7.9 6.3 2.5 5.6 4.8 4.6 52.2 0.5

Jose Ramirez 7.9 7.4 0.8 5.6 4.9 4.6 53.1 0.5

10 Christian Yelich 7.6 7.3 -0.4 5.7 4.7 4.3 56.8 0.5

11 Blake Snell 7.5 0 0 5.8 4.6 2.9 52 0.7

12 Lorenzo Cain 6.9 4.9 2.4 5 4.5 4.3 49.5 0.5

Chris Sale 6.9 0 0 5.4 4.6 2.8 48.4 0.7

Alex Bregman 6.9 7.5 -0.1 4.6 4.9 4.6 43.5 0.5

15 J.D. Martinez 6.4 6.8 -1.4 4.2 4.9 4.6 39.5 0.5

16 Javier Baez 6.3 5.3 1.7 4.2 4.5 4.3 42 0.5

17 Justin Verlander 6.2 0 0 4.3 4.6 3.4 40.1 0.6

Andrelton Simmons 6.2 3.9 3.1 4.1 4.7 4.6 37.8 0.5

19 Mitch Haniger 6.1 5.5 0.2 3.9 4.8 4.6 35.3 0.5

Freddie Freeman 6.1 4.9 0.2 3.9 4.5 4.3 39.4 0.5

21 Corey Kluber 5.9 0 0 3.9 4.6 3.5 36.8 0.6

22 Trevor Bauer 5.8 0 0 4.1 4.6 3.3 38.1 0.6

23 Nolan Arenado 5.6 5.2 0.7 3.6 4.5 4.3 36.1 0.5

Trevor Story

 

Where are you copying this from, also he's a 3 Tool player?

[Olerud363]

I do not think you know what binary means

 

 

Binary as in each TOOL is either on or off. Holy f*** you are an unpleasant arrogant awful human being.

 

Here are the five tools

 

Avg Power Speed Defense Arm

 

Each can be either 0 or 1, you could code them using a 5 bit number with values from 0 to 31 if you wanted.

 

Here is a question what number would we use to represent Vladimir Guerrero You MORON??

 

The answer is 31. Note I said Vladimir Guerrero and not Vlad JR.

 

Vlad JR. would be 25 (Assuming the order is (from high to low bit) is Avg Power Speed Defense and Arm Jr. would be 1 1 0 0 1 which is 25)

 

Or if you don't think Vlad has the arm he would be 24.

 

 

 

And aren't you running a f***ing blog?? I'm an ******* sometimes, but I don't need anyone here to like me. I don't have a blog or any venture for people to visit. Isn't the first rule of having a blog, that you are nice to people so they visit it sometimes?? MORON

[Carlos Danger]

Where are you copying this from, also he's a 3 Tool player?

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders

[Spanky99]

Binary as in each TOOL is either on or off. Holy f*** you are an unpleasant arrogant awful human being.

 

Here are the five tools

 

Avg Power Speed Defense Arm

 

Each can be either 0 or 1, you could code them using a 5 bit number with values from 0 to 31 if you wanted.

 

Here is a question what number would we use to represent Vladimir Guerrero You MORON??

 

The answer is 31. Note I said Vladimir Guerrero and not Vlad JR.

 

Vlad JR. would be 25 (Assuming the order is (from high to low bit) is Avg Power Speed Defense and Arm Jr. would be 1 1 0 0 1 which is 25)

 

Or if you don't think Vlad has the arm he would be 24.

 

And aren't you running a f***ing blog?? I'm an ******* sometimes, but I don't need anyone here to like me. I don't have a blog or any venture for people to visit. Isn't the first rule of having a blog, that you are nice to people so they visit it sometimes?? MORON

 

You're far from an ******* Olerud, you have your usual sarcastic hue to a lot of posts(which a lot of us enjoy), but this was epic! BOXCAR8 GETS... REKT!!!

[Spanky99]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders

 

Aye... stick with Fangraphs, bruh.

[Carlos Danger]

Where are you copying this from, also he's a 3 Tool player?

 

2 tool player, not 3..

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jd-martinezs-defense-impacts-trade-value/c-210030328

 

EDIT: Confused, are you talking about JD or Vlad Jr?

[Carlos Danger]

Aye... stick with Fangraphs, bruh.

 

I knew this was coming from someone. I personally don't like much from ESPN, so I tend to agree. However this goes to an overall problem I have with baseball analytics... All these different sites have different numbers/interpretations.. How can you put much stock into something with so many differing interpretations...

 

The chart in general does support my point though..