Around Baseball 2019

[Brownie19]

I think 2/25 is a bit pessimistic. The FG projections came out with 3/45 and I think everyone on this board was salivating at that.

 

He really did check a lot of boxes and all reports say our FO liked him a lot. 4 win pitcher under 30. Prime aligns with our timeline, whereas Ryu/Keuchel (is Keuchel even good?) might exit their prime sooner than we'd like. Fine with cold, fine with AL East, likes Montoyo from TB days. It's a bit disappointing that they wouldn't be more aggressive with such a good fit. Especially with seemingly unlimited payroll space.

 

Now we're getting into reclamation territory and I don't really see many guys available who would sign with term and be productive. For example, you could sign Gausman, he *very* predictably bounces back (was he ever even that bad?) and then leaves in a year.

 

I agree with this and I don't think Keuchel is good.

[Abomination]

I think 2/25 is a bit pessimistic. The FG projections came out with 3/45 and I think everyone on this board was salivating at that.

 

He really did check a lot of boxes and all reports say our FO liked him a lot. 4 win pitcher under 30. Prime aligns with our timeline, whereas Ryu/Keuchel (is Keuchel even good?) might exit their prime sooner than we'd like. Fine with cold, fine with AL East, likes Montoyo from TB days. It's a bit disappointing that they wouldn't be more aggressive with such a good fit. Especially with seemingly unlimited payroll space.

 

Now we're getting into reclamation territory and I don't really see many guys available who would sign with term and be productive. For example, you could sign Gausman, he *very* predictably bounces back (was he ever even that bad?) and then leaves in a year.

 

Edit: I should add that they evaluated Anderson very early on as being worth $8.5M. Which is fine, and was a great deal. But I think that shows that they actually knew where the market was going. And using that evaluation, is Odorizzi worth double? Probably, I think.

 

Cold doesn't matter because we play in a dome. You could argue that's an advantage for us, but it seems like the cold hurts hitters more than pitchers, so maybe not.

[P2F]

How is Dallas Keuchel not good?

[Abomination]

I mean living in it. Minnesota/Canada.

 

Meh. The weather is probably better in Toronto for April/May and September/October than it is in a few places in the States, and way the hell better in the ballpark. Most players don't live in the city they play in over the winter anyway.

[Orgfiller]

Wasn't that good last year was he?

 

4.72 FIP, xwoba of .332 which was 102nd. 0.8 WAR. He's not really a FIP beater. He's 32 and I think he's on a very thin margin regarding his fastball velocity. Doesn't get whiffs in the zone, or really even out of it. He relies a lot on framing and weak contact which is scary.

 

His last 2 playoffs he's thrown 18 innings and has 6 strike outs. Watching those games, he doesn't even look viable. Just missiles all over the place.

 

If they revert the ball, he's a little more interesting. I would take him if the alternative is nothing.

 

He didn't have a ST and only started pitching against professionals again in June. I think he did pretty well considering the circumstances. ERA has him as 2.3 RA-9 WAR in 112 innings and a 4.06 xFIP paints a much cleaner picture of his previous season. Even with a juiced ball I don't think he's likely to stick around a 24% HR/FB rate. His velocity has stayed incredibly consistent, his PD stats were pretty much inline with career numbers, and we have some of the best defensive catchers in the league already with Jansen, McGuire and Maile so I don't see why him being reliant on elite control and framing would be an issue here. He still projects for 2.7 WAR next season and that's after a year which could only be described as a nightmare from start to finish on his end.

[Brownie19]

Wasn't that good last year was he?

 

4.72 FIP, xwoba of .332 which was 102nd. 0.8 WAR. He's not really a FIP beater. He's 32 and I think he's on a very thin margin regarding his fastball velocity. Doesn't get whiffs in the zone, or really even out of it. He relies a lot on framing and weak contact which is scary.

 

His last 2 playoffs he's thrown 18 innings and has 6 strike outs. Watching those games, he doesn't even look viable. Just missiles all over the place.

 

If they revert the ball, he's a little more interesting. I would take him if the alternative is nothing.

 

I'm with Mike on this one. He makes me really nervous. xFIP has gone from 3.32 to 3.84 to 4.06 over the past 3 seasons and is entering his age 32 season. Just something about him that I can't get on board with. That said, he's better than nothing and I do see him as a realistic target and it's nice there's no draft pick associated with him.

[Grant77]

The Yankees are looking to trade Happ. I'd take his whole salary if they throw in an interesting piece like Mike Ford. I'd even ask for Andujar to play at 1B, but we would have to add something.

[Abomination]

The Yankees are looking to trade Happ. I'd take his whole salary if they throw in an interesting piece like Mike Ford. I'd even ask for Andujar to play at 1B, but we would have to add something.

 

Happ and Loaisiga maybe?

 

edited: NVM. Got him mixed up with someone else. We'd definitely be adding there too.

[glory]

I normally don't care about divisional trades, but if the Jays are helping the Yankees get Cole by taking Happ, then we better be getting a damn good prospect/player as incentive. Happ was not good at all last year, is 37, and has a vesting option for 2021 if he starts 27 games.

[Barkerfan23]

Mike Ford sucks

[Bobthe4th]

Interesting:

 

[Grant77]

I normally don't care about divisional trades, but if the Jays are helping the Yankees get Cole by taking Happ, then we better be getting a damn good prospect/player as incentive. Happ was not good at all last year, is 37, and has a vesting option for 2021 if he starts 27 games.

 

If Cole agrees to a contract then they won't let Happ stand in the way. Getting a useful starter and perhaps another good player would be a big plus for us, especially ig we can't spend our money elsewhere.

[Orgfiller]

Interesting:

 

 

Sounds great, and then when Ohtani goes 5-6 innings the Angels will have a black hole in their lineup that could have been filled by a competent major league hitter. Although I'm not entirely sure how pinch hitters work with the new 3 batter minimum rule. Sounds like too much of an NL strategy because then you're blowing up your bench.

[Bobthe4th]

Sounds great, and then when Ohtani goes 5-6 innings the Angels will have a black hole in their lineup that could have been filled by a competent major league hitter. Although I'm not entirely sure how pinch hitters work with the new 3 batter minimum rule. Sounds like too much of an NL strategy because then you're blowing up your bench.

 

The new 26 man squad could help where you use that spot on an extra batter. Maybe Madden is just thinking of ways to replicate his ingenious NL subs to prevent getting bored!

[The Cats Ass]

Sounds great, and then when Ohtani goes 5-6 innings the Angels will have a black hole in their lineup that could have been filled by a competent major league hitter. Although I'm not entirely sure how pinch hitters work with the new 3 batter minimum rule. Sounds like too much of an NL strategy because then you're blowing up your bench.

 

I think it's 3 batters or until the end of the inning.

[G-Snarls]

I'm not surprised that Strasburg went back to Washington nor am I surprised at the AAV. I am a bit surprised that they were willing to guarantee 7 years.

[Grant77]

Happ and Loaisiga maybe?

 

edited: NVM. Got him mixed up with someone else. We'd definitely be adding there too.

 

MLBTR reports that we are exploring a trade for Happ. This has a lot of good possibilities for us. We can simultaneously address a rotation spot and add an asset without spending any long term money.

[BTS]

MLBTR reports that we are exploring a trade for Happ. This has a lot of good possibilities for us. We can simultaneously address a rotation spot and add an asset without spending any long term money.

 

Yup. Happ is probably worth about 10M on the open market, and he's owed 17. He fills a rotation spot on 1-year commitment, and eating like 7M in sunk cost should net the team a decent asset.

 

Just don't let him start 27 games.

[Laika]

I'm down for taking Happ if the Yankees make it worth the Blue Jays' while. Heck, if he bounces back the 2021 option vesting would not be a horrible thing.

 

They can make it worth it for Toronto with a B/B+ prospect or like, $7M.

[glory]

If Cole agrees to a contract then they won't let Happ stand in the way. Getting a useful starter and perhaps another good player would be a big plus for us, especially ig we can't spend our money elsewhere.

 

If the Jays get a good secondary piece as incentive to take Happ, then that’s fine, but it would have to be something good. Yankees trying to get as far under the tax as possible to get Cole (the lux tax is important to them) and if the Jays are helping them out then we should get some incentive for it. Happ was worse than Thornton last season so I’m not sure he’s much of an upgrade. The secondary piece would be the key to the deal.

Edited December 10, 2019 by glory

[Grant77]

What would we have to add to get Happ and Andujar? It seems likely that they move the latter, but he still has some substantial value.

[mtljaysfan]

I don't want to help the Yankees out unless we get rewarded handily.

 

And Cashman is too smart a GM for Atkins to deal with so I feel a bit uncomfortable about the Happ rumor if true.

[Laika]

What would we have to add to get Happ and Andujar? It seems likely that they move the latter, but he still has some substantial value.

 

I don't even think Andujar should have huge value. He was above average in 2018 but had some big flaws - a brutal fielder who does not walk. It's unsurprising that he projects poorly. I don't think he's obviously the type of position player that even gets tendered all the way through arbitration.

 

Happ + Andujar for some token player that New York finds useful seems fair enough to me.

 

Alternatively, Toronto could try to involve Ken Giles while getting significant prospect capital either instead of Andujar or along with him.

 

Happ + Andujar + Frazier + Clarke Schmidt for Giles + filler.

 

It will never happen because it would make New York look weak but I honestly think it's fair. That's $9M in 2020 salary relief for New York plus relief from Happ's potential 2021 salary. Andujar does not project well despite his strong 2018. Frazier does not project well despite his pedigree and he's also out of favour in New York. Their bullpen would be f***ing insane.

[Bobthe4th]

MLBTR reports that we are exploring a trade for Happ. This has a lot of good possibilities for us. We can simultaneously address a rotation spot and add an asset without spending any long term money.

 

Please can we send Drury and McKinney back to them for Happ?

[bzapple]

Happ's not a horrible option but I'd explore plenty of others before giving the Yankees salary relief to enable them to more easily sign Gerrit Cole.

[G-Snarls]

Happ's not a horrible option but I'd explore plenty of others before giving the Yankees salary relief to enable them to more easily sign Gerrit Cole.

 

I wonder how many pitchers have ever come back to the same team three separate times?

[BTS]

Happ isn't going to stand between the Yankees and Cole if they can otherwise find common terms. That really shouldn't factor into Toronto's decision at all.

[wamco]

If true that 27 starts triggers an extra year, I’m out

[BTS]

If true that 27 starts triggers an extra year, I’m out

 

The team can just shift him to the pen to follow an opener if he's healthy all year. They didn't sign him to his contract, so it would be hard to blame them for not honouring the spirit of the deal. The Dodgers have been doing the same thing to Kenta Maeda for years, and they're the ones who agreed to terms with him.

[Laika]

And there's a chance he rebounds. He was a 3 WAR pitcher for four years in a row before 2018. He was excellent in Toronto so obviously likes pitching here. If he bounces back high enough, that 2021 vesting option might not look that bad.

 

Biggest reason to avoid doing it at this juncture is that it would still be preferable to land, say, Ryu and Lindblom. Happ should be more of a "well, f*** - we got nobody" move.