General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Spanky99]

Considering that Grichuk won the player of the year which can only be for his home run and RBI totals (team leader in both), I guess Biggio's low batting average and (relatively low) home run totals harmed him. Or maybe the player's vote on personality and he's a dick - who knows!

 

They just selected a veteran that contributed, in old man stats. Next year should be fun. lol...

 

I hope 2nd half Grich a full season. Mini-slumps are expected, months, not so much.

[Spanky99]

Crazy that Grichuk lost nearly 1 WAR this year due to defense and baserunning.

 

I read this every-year, Defensive Metric's suxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

BSR might be an alarming drop, or his hammy/oblique injuries are intertwined.

[Laika]

Defensive Metric's suxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

no they don't

[Spanky99]

no they don't

 

Pffftttt...

[Spanky99]

Analytics god Sig Mejdal on defensive metrics: https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/08/using-the-eye-test-vs-defensive-metrics-for-richie-martin.html

 

Basically says the only worthwhile defensive metrics are through Statcast. Grichuk had 6 outs above average which was top 20 I think for outfielders.

 

Sweet... teams are always far ahead.

 

“The Statcast data, it’s not a problem. The calculus is much different and when you have that Statcast data you don’t rely whatsoever on UZRs.”

 

“Those metrics are useful in and of themselves if you had nothing else, but they’re much less useful than they were five or six years ago when there wasn’t all this shifting. Now that said, there is now a much better way that makes, once you have the Statcast data where the guy was standing, where the ball was hit, the time he had to get to it, the time it took him to accelerate, to get to the ball, the time it took him to exchange the ball and release it, and the time the ball was in the air to the first baseman, when you have all that the UZR is of no use. And so the public doesn’t see that data.”

 

 

“They’re putting it together,” Mejdal said. “It’s every once in a while they have something else on the Statcast leaderboards. They’ve got catcher framing, outfielder jump, catch probability, so for whatever reason they seem to be focusing on the outfielders first.

 

“But if you look at that, they have outfielder’s jumps, they have reactions in burst and route efficiency, so they’ve broken it down and anybody who has the Statcast data and somebody with some college-level analytical skills, you could do something of that family and then further break down the value and capabilities of the shortstop, just like they do with the outfielders. His reaction and his burst or his ability to accelerate.”

[Spanky99]

Gaviglio had to have voted for himself haha

 

I bet it was Montoyo he loves Gaviglio.

[Candy Maldonado]

lol @ Stroman

 

[Orgfiller]

lol @ Stroman

 

 

One of the coaches definitely voted for Law given how much he was used.

[Bobthe4th]

lol @ Stroman

 

 

Why is that a lol? Stroman was by far our best starter when he was here, and is still the pitching WAR leader.

[Olerud363]

Why is that a lol? Stroman was by far our best starter when he was here, and is still the pitching WAR leader.

 

Maybe it is lol because Stroman was by the best pitcher with 150ish really good innings... and Sammy G. with 90ish mediocre inning beat him??

 

A mop up reliever and a guy with the worst on base percentage in baseball are the Jays player of the year and 2nd pitcher of the year...

 

The only saving grace is this is partly because young rooks like Biggio and Thornton who are servicable to pretty good don't seem to be allowed to get votes... So Grich and Sammy G. were not really in the top 2 or even top 10 Blue Jays players/Pitchers

[Laika]

One of the coaches definitely voted for Law given how much he was used.

 

Loved to hear Buck and Pat wax poetic every day of the second half about how Derek Law had pitched himself onto the 2020 roster. 5.28 xFIP in the second half!!!

[43211234]

Interesting tidbit from a Sportsnet exit interview piece with Reese McGuire:

 

“I feel like everything starts with my defence, for sure. I’m really happy with the results in the (Blue Jays’ proprietary) Strikes Looking Plus metric, which is what we look at as catchers for how many strikes you’re getting above league average. The league average is 1.03 and one day I had a 1.29, which is really high. I’m happy with the way I received, threw the ball, blocking, game management, dialing it up with the starter that day, coming up with a game plan and then executing it and making adjustments during the game.”

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/exit-interviews-blue-jays-catchers-evaluate-2019-seasons/

[Ray]

I was little surprised to see how great of a 2nd half Teoscar had offensively. Facing tougher teams too:

 

62 games, .259/.346/.592, .939 OPS

 

That K% is still really high (36%!), but he's still getting on base at a good clip. I still see a path to him reducing his K-rate slightly and putting up a .800-.850 OPS.

[glory]

My guess is Hernandez is the DH next season and they acquire a CF from another team/free agency. I doubt he'd have much trade value right now and he was probably the 2nd best OF on the team last season behind Gurriel, so it's not like he's expendable. Put him at DH, cycle all the OF's (and Vlad) in the DH spot, use Fisher as the 4th OF, and that's probably the offence next season.

[Carlos Danger]

Interesting tidbit from a Sportsnet exit interview piece with Reese McGuire:

 

“I feel like everything starts with my defence, for sure. I’m really happy with the results in the (Blue Jays’ proprietary) Strikes Looking Plus metric, which is what we look at as catchers for how many strikes you’re getting above league average. The league average is 1.03 and one day I had a 1.29, which is really high. I’m happy with the way I received, threw the ball, blocking, game management, dialing it up with the starter that day, coming up with a game plan and then executing it and making adjustments during the game.”

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/exit-interviews-blue-jays-catchers-evaluate-2019-seasons/

 

Love Reese...

[Terminator]

My guess is Hernandez is the DH next season and they acquire a CF from another team/free agency. I doubt he'd have much trade value right now and he was probably the 2nd best OF on the team last season behind Gurriel, so it's not like he's expendable. Put him at DH, cycle all the OF's (and Vlad) in the DH spot, use Fisher as the 4th OF, and that's probably the offence next season.

 

Need a 1B too right?

[glory]

Need a 1B too right?

 

I hope so but not sure how high the team is on Tellez. They might just plug him there. I’d look for a 1B upgrade personally.

[Terminator]

I hope so but not sure how high the team is on Tellez. They might just plug him there. I’d look for a 1B upgrade personally.

 

Oh god please don't play him all year. Very easy way to add a couple of wins is to spend 5 mil on a one year deal for a decent first baseman.

[Barkerfan23]

Oh god please don't play him all year. Very easy way to add a couple of wins is to spend 5 mil on a one year deal for a decent first baseman.

 

The general prospects of this team make me sadder and sadder.

 

They will have a 108 million payroll, probably spend 50 Mil on 8-10 pitching scrubs that might Fetch something at the deadline. Come deadline, they will make the excuse well we only have scrubs to sell.

 

Daniel Hudson will probably be closing out games in the WS, and what did we get. A guy with a 10BB/9IP in A ball, in his mid 20s.

[Olerud363]

Oh god please don't play him all year. Very easy way to add a couple of wins is to spend 5 mil on a one year deal for a decent first baseman.

 

Tellez is projected as a 1 WAR player... So to improve by 2 WAR you need a 3 WAR guy.. someone like Edwin.

 

1. The projection systems say Tellez and Smoak will be about the same the next couple of years..

2. Tellez will be 25 and 26 next couple of years, basicaly his prime.

3. He could be better then we think as he's been through a lot the last couple of years

4. His batting average on balls in play was really low last year

 

I feel like whoever you got to replace him for 5 million will be a sure 3 WAR player in their 25-29 years, but will be past that now.

[Olerud363]

I feel like in general the Jays have had some bad luck with babip, and just guys having random bad years.

 

Tellez, Drury, Mckinney, Fisher, Grichuk, Hernandez

 

They are all the same guy... not too much patience, hit ball hard... if they ever have a bit of luck and a bit more patience they will be good.

 

They hit what .220 as a group?? Will they be better next year?? What if they had a bit of good luck and did improve plate discipline as a group??

 

They are like a .285 on base percentage all together. They don't have to be Ted Williams... if their combeined on base percentage went up to .315 they'd be way better.

 

Can that happen??

[DigitalRock]

The general prospects of this team make me sadder and sadder.

 

They will have a 108 million payroll, probably spend 50 Mil on 8-10 pitching scrubs that might Fetch something at the deadline. Come deadline, they will make the excuse well we only have scrubs to sell.

 

Daniel Hudson will probably be closing out games in the WS, and what did we get. A guy with a 10BB/9IP in A ball, in his mid 20s.

 

Lol, chicken little.

[glory]

Oh god please don't play him all year. Very easy way to add a couple of wins is to spend 5 mil on a one year deal for a decent first baseman.

 

Agreed, never been a fan of Tellez. The easy answer might be bringing Smoak back on a cheap one deal. You know he likes it in Toronto, he won't cost much, and he had a bad BABIP last season so he could be a bounce back candidate. Otherwise the team probably wants to spend most of its available money on pitching and an outfielder.

 

Kinda wish they just pressed fast forward on moving Vlad to 1B. An upgrade at third with Vlad moving to first would make the team so much better than Vlad at third and trying to upgrade first, but looks like we are a couple of years away from that.

[Spanky99]

Oh god please don't play him all year. Very easy way to add a couple of wins is to spend 5 mil on a one year deal for a decent first baseman.

 

Some dude from Boston think's we sign Odorizzi and JD, lol.

[wamco]

Ok....

[Dick_Pole]

LOL love it! Trying to subvert the FO by sucking up to the city/fans didn't work for Bautista or Stroman but now that it's Shapiro's turn he's using the same tactic on the owners. Shapiro should get a tattoo of the CN Tower on his face just to prove his loyalty. The problem for him is the casuals seem to hate him outside of the few dozen posters on this board.

[glory]

Extending Shapiro is the most important part of the off season. Rogers better not f*** this up.

[RobinThicc]

Give Shapiro a 2 year extension on top the 1 year remaining. 3 years to get this team looking like it can/should make the playoffs.

 

More than reasonable.

[saskjayfan]

Extending Shapiro is the most important part of the off season. Rogers better not f*** this up.

 

let's see what he does or doesn't do in free agency first.

[Spanky99]

let's see what he does or doesn't do in free agency first.

 

That would be Ross Atkins job.