Lourdes Gurriel Jr Discussion

[WONDERBAT]

Wanted to have a discussion about Gurriel jr, he's only played 44 games for us this season but wanted to get thoughts on what kind of role you think he can hold going forward.

 

Personally I haven't seen enough from him on offense to be too optimistic, even during his multi hit steak he looked just ok with a lot of BABIP assisted hits. I had to look up his doubles numbers cause it felt like he barely hit any, he's only got 5 for the year. He reminds me of KP 2.0 barely any strike zone discipline.

 

His batted ball profile looks average with the majority of his contact soft-med.

 

He's been pretty bad at SS too -18.9 UZR/150 and -2.0 at 2B.

 

I get he's still learning and since we are in a full rebuild now we should be giving him as much playing time as possible.

[flafson]

As a hitter he seems to be able to adjust better than KP, so that's encouraging.

What I also cling on to, he has a good lineage in his family so that gotta mean something.

[saskjayfan]

As a hitter he seems to be able to adjust better than KP, so that's encouraging.

What I also cling on to, he has a good lineage in his family so that gotta mean something.

 

that biggio kid has decent lineage.

[Boxcar]

Wanted to have a discussion about Gurriel jr, he's only played 44 games for us this season but wanted to get thoughts on what kind of role you think he can hold going forward.

 

Personally I haven't seen enough from him on offense to be too optimistic, even during his multi hit steak he looked just ok with a lot of BABIP assisted hits. I had to look up his doubles numbers cause it felt like he barely hit any, he's only got 5 for the year. He reminds me of KP 2.0 barely any strike zone discipline.

 

His batted ball profile looks average with the majority of his contact soft-med.

 

He's been pretty bad at SS too -18.9 UZR/150 and -2.0 at 2B.

 

I get he's still learning and since we are in a full rebuild now we should be giving him as much playing time as possible.

 

Diaz is a pretty nice safety net. He's just good enough to start while still being an acceptable utility player. With Bo, LGJ, Smith and Groshans in the pipe, we have flexibility to let one of them step up and if they don't, Diaz is perfectly adequate.

[John_Havok]

Diaz is a pretty nice safety net. He's just good enough to start while still being an acceptable utility player. With Bo, LGJ, Smith and Groshans in the pipe, we have flexibility to let one of them step up and if they don't, Diaz is perfectly adequate.

 

Pretty much this. I'd much rather see LGjr at 2B than SS defensively, and he's probably an average bat. Could be a decent utility guy in the 1.5 - 2.5 WAR range over a full season assuming he plays more 2b than other positions.

 

IF (and this is a big if given his minor league track record) he learns to take a walk.... then there's more there.

[Daniel Labude]

As a hitter he compares to Nomar...as a fielder Ozzie

[tercet]

He isn't good at hitting or defense. He is another free-swinging hacker that won't walk, ala Pillar, Travis, etc

 

The Jays seem intent on giving him alot of rope due to his contract and his family's legacy.

[Slade]

No bat speed, no hard contact, no plate discipline and bad defense. Can't see him being a piece for the future but maybe a utility guy.

[Terminator]

No bat speed, no hard contact, no plate discipline and bad defense. Can't see him being a piece for the future but maybe a utility guy.

 

I'll give you the plate discipline but he hits the ball pretty damn hard. His average exit velocity and hard hit % are much better than league average. Too early to say on the defense but he's probably not going to be great there.

[tazsub3]

No bat speed, no hard contact, no plate discipline and bad defense. Can't see him being a piece for the future but maybe a utility guy.

 

Thank you mr scout, you have the kid figured out that fast...who needs to worry about players progressing right?

[Slade]

Thank you mr scout, you have the kid figured out that fast...who needs to worry about players progressing right?

 

I'm not saying he can't improve but his overall ceiling is just that of an average player. I can see him eventually being a similar hitter to his brother.

[John_Havok]

I'm not saying he can't improve but his overall ceiling is just that of an average player. I can see him eventually being a similar hitter to his brother.

 

If LGJR is an average major leaguer that would be fine. His ceiling is higher than that with improvements to plate discipline and defense which are 2 things that do tend to improve with experience, but there's no telling for sure if they actually will, or how far.

 

Your previous statement about not having bat speed and hard contact though are just flat out wrong.

[Jonn]

I really want to see him play some Outfield in September. Morph him until a Marwin Gonzalez Super Utillity type player. I don't think hes an everyday Shortstop. And second base has a lot of competition and that's ultimately where Bo Bichette will probably play in the majors.

[Abomination]

I really want to see him play some Outfield in September. Morph him until a Marwin Gonzalez Super Utillity type player. I don't think hes an everyday Shortstop. And second base has a lot of competition and that's ultimately where Bo Bichette will probably play in the majors.

 

I think he fits really well as a Ben Zobrist type. Play him almost everyday, but use it to give the other regulars a day off.

[xposbrad]

I think he fits really well as a Ben Zobrist type. Play him almost everyday, but use it to give the other regulars a day off.

 

A Ben Zobrist type, without the zobrist numbers, I hear ya.

[Abomination]

A Ben Zobrist type, without the zobrist numbers, I hear ya.

 

I'd say Zobrist's defense in the 2nd half of his career (slightly above average at multiple positions, but not elite), and without his walk rate. I think he profiles very similarly in everything else.

[tazsub3]

His improvement curve is very steep, last year, we were wondering if he ever hits the majors, if he continues progressing, he will much better then most of us predict.

[Maico450]

His improvement curve is very steep, last year, we were wondering if he ever hits the majors, if he continues progressing, he will much better then most of us predict.

 

That's true. The player that's being criticized here, by his age should be playing at AA.

What I see is a very exciting young player, learning at the big league, and doing some wonderful things.

 

How can you not be pleased?

[tercet]

He isn't a good hitter or defender now. The history of guys that walk 3-5% and strikeout 20-25% isn't good.

 

Take out his July performance and his OPS is is the 500s.

 

He has hit 139/175/139 over 40PA since he came back.

 

He might become good/average but the odds are against it.

[Dr. Dinger]

He isn't a good hitter or defender now. The history of guys that walk 3-5% and strikeout 20-25% isn't good.

 

Take out his July performance and his OPS is is the 500s.

 

He has hit 139/175/139 over 40PA since he came back.

 

He might become good/average but the odds are against it.

 

Yeah, just take out the part where he was good and he clearly sucks. Thanks Pat Tabler!

[tercet]

Yeah, just take out the part where he was good and he clearly sucks. Thanks Pat Tabler!

 

Yea I know it takes a rocket scientist to figure out that someone who has a career line of 262/297/398 in the minors won't be able to keep up 424/438/648.

[tercet]

[Laika]

Gurriel blows. Probably a below average hitter who can't even play a good shortstop.

 

I think he does enough to be a useful bench player but that also kind of looks like his realistic ceiling for me. He'll have to find some patience or find some power or find some defense to be a regular, for me.

 

He's like an early career Yuni Betancourt

[Terminator]

Gurriel blows. Probably a below average hitter who can't even play a good shortstop.

 

I think he does enough to be a useful bench player but that also kind of looks like his realistic ceiling for me. He'll have to find some patience or find some power or find some defense to be a regular, for me.

 

He's like an early career Yuni Betancourt

 

I think you're accurately describing his most likely scenario but you aren't giving enough credit to his realistic ceiling, which IMO could be a solid to above average regular.

[Laika]

I think you're accurately describing his most likely scenario but you aren't giving enough credit to his realistic ceiling, which IMO could be a solid to above average regular.

 

If you think above avg regular is his realistic ceiling (say, 75th percentile outcome) then what the heck is his upper ceiling? You think he could possibly be a STAR? There are a bunch of holes in his game.

[Abomination]

If you think above avg regular is his realistic ceiling (say, 75th percentile outcome) then what the heck is his upper ceiling? You think he could possibly be a STAR? There are a bunch of holes in his game.

 

The only real hole imo is walk rate. Most of the defensive issues seem to be at SS rather than 2B, and I think we'd all agree that he probably won't be getting a lot of time there moving forward. This is basically the equivalent of a player in their 2nd year out of college, and he's been league average.

[John_Havok]

The only real hole imo is walk rate. Most of the defensive issues seem to be at SS rather than 2B, and I think we'd all agree that he probably won't be getting a lot of time there moving forward. This is basically the equivalent of a player in their 2nd year out of college, and he's been league average.

 

Well, his D at 2B isn't great, but it might become average. And a walk rate issue is kind of important. When pitchers realize they don't have to throw you strikes and you still offer at them, everything else with your batted ball profile suffers.

 

So far in 2018, LG is sporting a 38% Oswing, where league average is 30.8%. Ocontact% is 70, league average is 63.1%

 

Those need to improve.

[Abomination]

Well, his D at 2B isn't great, but it might become average. And a walk rate issue is kind of important. When pitchers realize they don't have to throw you strikes and you still offer at them, everything else with your batted ball profile suffers.

 

So far in 2018, LG is sporting a 38% Oswing, where league average is 30.8%. Ocontact% is 70, league average is 63.1%

 

Those need to improve.

 

The Oswing and contract rates are basically tied to the walk rate, so I wouldn't consider them additional issues. It is absolutely important, and something he desperately needs to improve. I'm pretty sure his defense at 2nd is already approximately league average. He does make a few extra errors, but they appear to be experience related more than physical ability so I could quite easily see him settle in a little above average there. If he fills an everyday super utility type role, then it'll probably be average at multiple positions.

[Orgfiller]

Well, his D at 2B isn't great, but it might become average. And a walk rate issue is kind of important. When pitchers realize they don't have to throw you strikes and you still offer at them, everything else with your batted ball profile suffers.

 

So far in 2018, LG is sporting a 38% Oswing, where league average is 30.8%. Ocontact% is 70, league average is 63.1%

 

Those need to improve.

 

Well the O-Contact is fine, 70% is around Mike Trout's career average, the O-Swing for sure needs to drop a lot. He swings and misses at exactly a league average rate so that's fine, but would likely go down if he stopped swinging at pitches outside the zone.

[John_Havok]

The Oswing and contract rates are basically tied to the walk rate, so I wouldn't consider them additional issues. It is absolutely important, and something he desperately needs to improve. I'm pretty sure his defense at 2nd is already approximately league average. He does make a few extra errors, but they appear to be experience related more than physical ability so I could quite easily see him settle in a little above average there. If he fills an everyday super utility type role, then it'll probably be average at multiple positions.

 

I never said they were an additional problem, they are most likely largely the cause of the problematic walk rate.