Vlad Jr. - A Pre-Debut Extension

[Spanky99]

this is basically what happened with Kingery and Singleton is it not?

 

Yeah, and the Singleton contract was a larger issue as they had a smoking gun on him, he signed a cheap contract to avoid suspension, MLBPA were not happy. Didn't work out so well for the Stros on that one, lol.

[Terminator]

I would definitely approach Vlad with an extension but if he doesn't seem interested then he can come up late April of next year like most top prospects do. We don't have to justify it.

[Spanky99]

Definitely not, that would be insane. Vlad can still bust (or eat his way out of the league).

 

lol... still a fun question...

[Daniel Labude]

Do it!!!!!!

[John_Havok]

I'm absolutely in favor of something like this for Vlad Jr but getting the dollars and years right would obviously take some tweaking.

 

I'm not worried about what Vlad's body type does to him for the next 10 years until he's 30, when Prince Fielder was still a beast up to 29 and he was never even close to being in the shape Vlad is now. After 30.... yeah, worry.

 

Some might use Sandoval as a comparison, but Sandoval had nowhere near the elite bate that Vlad or Fielder had, and even he didn't crater until he was 28.

 

I'm also pretty sure Jr's agent isn't with one of the big-time agencies so might be more open to this type of deal.

 

It also might be the best way to get him in the lineup while avoiding any of the service time manipulation issues like Tampa Bay is seeing with Adames. I can understand an argument keeping him down for a while this season since it's his first crack at AA, he's never really had any adversity at the level yet (blah blah blah), but if he's not a full time Jay on opening day 2019 after raking all of 2018 at AA and/or AAA, then the FO deserves any and all criticism it receives for manipulating service time.

 

I don't really care how it's more strategic for the business side. Rogers doesn't have to be Tampa Bay or Oakland and I wish MLB and the MLBPA would really start punishing teams for holding back talent that is obviously ready to play for their respective MLB teams.

[Boxcar]

I don't think it's necessary to try to gain a FA year. An extension gives the Jays a concrete figure for the next 5 ish years without having to worry about service time or arb raises, and would also allow them to call up Vlad immediately.

 

Just give Morales to KC for free, making them even worse (lol Royals) and let's start the Vlad era. This team is good enough to compete for a WC.

[Jimcanuck]

Definitely not, that would be insane. Vlad can still bust (or eat his way out of the league).

 

Or get hurt. I can see a couple of FA years being bought through a strongly back loaded contract (this also gives the Jays financial room during Vlad's peak which may be 20-25 after which his body renders him a slow footed 1B/DH).

 

If Vlad comes up soon my wins prediction goes from 79 to 85. Vlad = +4, dump Morales = +2

Edited May 1, 2018 by Jimcanuck

[dineke]

I'm absolutely in favor of something like this for Vlad Jr but getting the dollars and years right would obviously take some tweaking.

 

I'm not worried about what Vlad's body type does to him for the next 10 years until he's 30, when Prince Fielder was still a beast up to 29 and he was never even close to being in the shape Vlad is now. After 30.... yeah, worry.

 

Some might use Sandoval as a comparison, but Sandoval had nowhere near the elite bate that Vlad or Fielder had, and even he didn't crater until he was 28.

 

I'm also pretty sure Jr's agent isn't with one of the big-time agencies so might be more open to this type of deal.

 

It also might be the best way to get him in the lineup while avoiding any of the service time manipulation issues like Tampa Bay is seeing with Adames. I can understand an argument keeping him down for a while this season since it's his first crack at AA, he's never really had any adversity at the level yet (blah blah blah), but if he's not a full time Jay on opening day 2019 after raking all of 2018 at AA and/or AAA, then the FO deserves any and all criticism it receives for manipulating service time.

 

I don't really care how it's more strategic for the business side. Rogers doesn't have to be Tampa Bay or Oakland and I wish MLB and the MLBPA would really start punishing teams for holding back talent that is obviously ready to play for their respective MLB teams.

 

I hope he's the David Ortiz type of fat rather than prince or pablo.

[Laika]

I don't think people are really grasping the risk/reward with my proposal.

 

Sure he could bust or get hurt. So could anybody.

 

But the reward is massive - locking up a superstar for his ages 20 - 32 seasons, and not having to guarantee him like 350 million (or more) to stick around when he turns 26 or 27.

 

Arguably you WANT to have the right to pay Vladdy 30M when he is 30, 31, and 32.

You obviously do not want to have to pay him 35M per year when he is older than that.

[AdamGreenwood]

AA pitching is a joke compared to MLB pitching. If you think Vlad is gonna come up here, and immediately mash, you are sadly deluded.

There are still parts of his game that he needs to work on, and despite Morales abysmal start, throwing away ~20 million dollars, because you didn't like his first month of 2018, makes no sense at all. We can't just rip up the contracts of everybody over 32 who gets off to a bad start.

 

Vlad needs to play everyday, and he won't make the Jays more competitive just yet.

He has 2 HR in about 100 AB at Double-A and his defense sucks. (Yes, his walk and K rates are great). He isn't going to be an MLB contributor out of the gate.

 

I do like the idea of locking him up like the Phillies did with Kingery. But if it's only for six years, what's the point?

It still means we get him for 2 sub-prime years, and 4 prime years, instead of six prime years.

[Jimcanuck]

AA pitching is a joke compared to MLB pitching. If you think Vlad is gonna come up here, and immediately mash, you are sadly deluded.

There are still parts of his game that he needs to work on, and despite Morales abysmal start, throwing away ~20 million dollars, because you didn't like his first month of 2018, makes no sense at all. We can't just rip up the contracts of everybody over 32 who gets off to a bad start.

 

Vlad needs to play everyday, and he won't make the Jays more competitive just yet.

He has 2 HR in about 100 AB at Double-A and his defense sucks. (Yes, his walk and K rates are great). He isn't going to be an MLB contributor out of the gate.

 

I do like the idea of locking him up like the Phillies did with Kingery. But if it's only for six years, what's the point?

It still means we get him for 2 sub-prime years, and 4 prime years, instead of six prime years.

 

He's gotten better at every level, bro.

 

His mastery of the strike zone should result in a .330 - .340 OBP right now.

 

I'd rather pay Morales $9M or whatever it is to sit at home, and $1M to Vlad.

[glory]

If you gave him an 8 to 10 year guarantee he wouldn't even be 30 by the time that thing ended. It's a risk worth taking.

[Boxcar]

AA pitching is a joke compared to MLB pitching. If you think Vlad is gonna come up here, and immediately mash, you are sadly deluded.

There are still parts of his game that he needs to work on, and despite Morales abysmal start, throwing away ~20 million dollars, because you didn't like his first month of 2018, makes no sense at all. We can't just rip up the contracts of everybody over 32 who gets off to a bad start.

 

Vlad needs to play everyday, and he won't make the Jays more competitive just yet.

He has 2 HR in about 100 AB at Double-A and his defense sucks. (Yes, his walk and K rates are great). He isn't going to be an MLB contributor out of the gate.

 

I do like the idea of locking him up like the Phillies did with Kingery. But if it's only for six years, what's the point?

It still means we get him for 2 sub-prime years, and 4 prime years, instead of six prime years.

 

He's better than Morales right now, I'd bet my life on that.

[Olerud363]

He's better than Morales right now, I'd bet my life on that.

 

Who is the greatest 19 year old of all time?? Mantle, Griffey, harper come to mind...

 

They hit .265 .340 .450 or so... they were all very similar.

[Krylian]

Who is the greatest 19 year old of all time?? Mantle, Griffey, harper come to mind...

 

They hit .265 .340 .450 or so... they were all very similar.

 

ARod might be the greatest 20 year old.

 

.358/.414/.631/1.045

[Boxcar]

Who is the greatest 19 year old of all time?? Mantle, Griffey, harper come to mind...

 

They hit .265 .340 .450 or so... they were all very similar.

 

All he has to do to be better than Morales is be a league average hitter or a little bit worse considering he can play the field and isn't the slowest guy in baseball.

[Dr. Dinger]

Recent Notable Teenagers in AA

 

2018 - Vlad (192 wRC+), Tatis (45 wRC+), Keibert Ruiz (84 wRC+)

2017 - None

2016 - None

2015 - None

2014 - None

2013 - None

2012 - Machado (120 wRC+), Profar (124 wRC+)

2011 - Trout (156 wRC+), Harper (18 yo, 100 wRC+)

2010 - None

[Muck Bartinez]

AA pitching is a joke compared to MLB pitching. If you think Vlad is gonna come up here, and immediately mash, you are sadly deluded.

There are still parts of his game that he needs to work on, and despite Morales abysmal start, throwing away ~20 million dollars, because you didn't like his first month of 2018, makes no sense at all. We can't just rip up the contracts of everybody over 32 who gets off to a bad start.

 

Vlad needs to play everyday, and he won't make the Jays more competitive just yet.

He has 2 HR in about 100 AB at Double-A and his defense sucks. (Yes, his walk and K rates are great). He isn't going to be an MLB contributor out of the gate.

 

I do like the idea of locking him up like the Phillies did with Kingery. But if it's only for six years, what's the point?

It still means we get him for 2 sub-prime years, and 4 prime years, instead of six prime years.

 

Morales hasn't just been bad this first month, he's been terrible the whole time he's been with the Jays (.242/.303/.428 for a 91 wRC+) and isn't getting better. Even if you include his 2016 season, his wRC+ only goes up to 101. Pair that with no position in the field, and horrible baserunning, and you've got yourself possibly the least useful player in baseball.

 

If you don't agree with bringing up Vlad that's one thing, but whether you keep Morales or dump him, that money is being thrown away regardless. No reason to throw away wins just to justify his contract.

[P2F]

Tatis is already showing significant improvement. I bet an insane offensive tear is imminent.

[Dr. Dinger]

Tatis is already showing significant improvement. I bet an insane offensive tear is imminent.

 

I kind of hate you for that trade, even though Tatis has been poopy this year.

[P2F]

I kind of hate you for that trade, even though Tatis has been poopy this year.

 

That's a pretty reasonable and expected feeling, though I kinda hate you for the Soto/Robles for Lamb/Gyorko trade.

 

Even?

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah okay I'll shut up.

[Jonn]

Extension sounds good. But making the move for Vlad right now doesn't make any sense. Maybe if were competitive by August you consider making that move. But I also believe they have zero interest in a 19 year old coming up to DH everyday. They value developing him defensively. Let him continue to destroy Double-A pitching for the time being.

[Dr. Dinger]

Extension sounds good. But making the move for Vlad right now doesn't make any sense. Maybe if were competitive by August you consider making that move. But I also believe they have zero interest in a 19 year old coming up to DH everyday. They value developing him defensively. Let him continue to destroy Double-A pitching for the time being.

 

Donaldson's shoulder is f***ed up and needs to be preserved. Get them both reps at 3B/DH, as well as 1B on days when Smoak DHs or sits. Morales DFA, Solarte utility.

[Spanky99]

Donaldson's shoulder is f***ed up and needs to be preserved. Get them both reps at 3B/DH, as well as 1B on days when Smoak DHs or sits. Morales DFA, Solarte utility.

 

Thanks Doctor Dinger, lol.

[Sammy225]

Extension sounds good. But making the move for Vlad right now doesn't make any sense. Maybe if were competitive by August you consider making that move. But I also believe they have zero interest in a 19 year old coming up to DH everyday. They value developing him defensively. Let him continue to destroy Double-A pitching for the time being.

 

Ya i completely agree with this. If the jays are in the thick of things when it comes to the Wild Card picture the likely won't want to deal Donaldson so having Vlad come up and DH would suck when it is his defense that he would need to work on if anything. I think however he will get a look at Buffalo if he keeps crushing AA. There are more crafty older pitchers in AAA (maybe not the best stuff) but defiantly on the brink MLB pitchers that would give him a different look. I feel in AA you will see better pitchers but you will also see a lot more stinkers than in AAA if that makes any sense lol

[Spanky99]

Ya i completely agree with this. If the jays are in the thick of things when it comes to the Wild Card picture the likely won't want to deal Donaldson so having Vlad come up and DH would suck when it is his defense that he would need to work on if anything. I think however he will get a look at Buffalo if he keeps crushing AA. There are more crafty older pitchers in AAA (maybe not the best stuff) but defiantly on the brink MLB pitchers that would give him a different look. I feel in AA you will see better pitchers but you will also see a lot more stinkers than in AAA if that makes any sense lol

 

It makes plenty sense. Most big helium prospect pitchers are in AA. Also, the jump to AA, is the hardest test on ballplayers, the ones I've talked to(MLB guys) many moons ago on a few meetups, said as much.

[Krylian]

It makes plenty sense. Most big helium prospect pitchers are in AA. Also, the jump to AA, is the hardest test on ballplayers, the ones I've talked to(MLB guys) many moons ago on a few meetups, said as much.

 

Which MLB guys have you spoke with?

[Spanky99]

Which MLB guys have you spoke with?

 

Jays players in the early 90's, 2 of my close friends played for them. Plus a couple from Tampa and 1 from the Phillies.

[Krylian]

Jays players in the early 90's, 2 of my close friends played for them.

 

I guess you can't break your NDA.