Tercet bets against himself, loses $500

[tercet]

How to pitch to Teoscar, brought to you by BIG SEXY

[tercet]

Who would have thought that Teoscar wouldnt get middle middle sliders, and middle middle fastballs every at bat.

[tercet]

Big sexy missed his spot but teoscar still swings like a fool at the middle away pitch

[Spanky99]

MODS!!!

 

 

BAN this 6' 9" 150 lb geek!!!

[bones10]

Big sexy missed his spot but teoscar still swings like a fool at the middle away pitch

 

You're insuffrable.

[tercet]

You're insuffrable.

 

But in reality this is why he won't succeed, swinging at pitches he knows hes not going to hit well unless the pitcher makes a mistake (example this at bat)_

[Spanky99]

But in reality this is why he won't succeed, swinging at pitches he knows hes not going to hit well unless the pitcher makes a mistake (example this at bat)_

 

I guess you missed the triple, hey gimp?!

 

BRING OUT THE GIMP!!!!

 

Nice edit... Geek, lol.

[tercet]

I guess you missed the triple, hey gimp?!

 

BRING OUT THE GIMP!!!!

 

Nice edit... Geek, lol.

 

You realize he swung at a down/middle and away pitch that he isn't going to do crap with 95% of the time? Sigh

 

I didn't edit s***, wtf r u smoking.

[tercet]

That last at bat he took a down away slider rather for strike 3 instead of swing and do s*** with it like has 95% of the time. I'm happy with that at-bat, because so far he has proven that he cant hit anything down and away to pretty much save his life.

[Spanky99]

You realize he swung at a down/middle and away pitch that he isn't going to do crap with 95% of the time? Sigh

 

I didn't edit s***, wtf r u smoking.

 

That's ball ya, moron... lol. Keep banging the drum on guys trying to break through, you'll only hit on 80% percent or more. Ya, Sieve.

 

Also he's taken those pitches oppo, meat?

[tercet]

Speak english wtf?

 

If I go all-in in poker with 27offsuit and win the pot does that mean it is the right play? No, baseball is similar to poker because weird things can happen in small sample sizes. I like to thing long term instead of short-term in both. Oh crap last night I lost 100, I suck at poker, err wait but I'm up 20k this month.

[BTS]

Hernandez has looked great offensively, but I stand by my comments about the defense needing a fair bit of work.

[Spanky99]

Speak english wtf?

 

If I go all-in in poker with 27offsuit and win the pot does that mean it is the right play? No, baseball is similar to poker because weird things can happen in small sample sizes. I like to thing long term instead of short-term in both. Oh crap last night I lost 100, I suck at poker, err wait but I'm up 20k this month.

 

Not one f***ing person gives a rats ass, of this analogy, Gimp. Find a RR track and lie down.

[tercet]

Hernandez has looked great offensively, but I stand by my comments about the defense needing a fair bit of work.

 

No he hasn't cmon. He beat up some cookie mistake pitches the first few days, and has done pretty much what you and me predicted in this thread since then.

 

He can hit mistake pitches, we know that, hence why he is an AAAA hitter, but when pitchers hit their spots he looks useless as per the last week.

[tercet]

Change the thread title back please, if Teoscar has an OPS > 800 by June 1st (assuming he is still on the majors) Ill donate 500$ to this forum and u can keep put the title to whatever u want.

[Pendleton]

Change the thread title back please, if Teoscar has an OPS > 800 by June 1st (assuming he is still on the majors) Ill donate 500$ to this forum and u can keep put the title to whatever u want.

 

Just put that money towards a new server and you can go talk to yourself about Teoscar there

[jays4life19]

Change the thread title back please, if Teoscar has an OPS > 800 by June 1st (assuming he is still on the majors) Ill donate 500$ to this forum and u can keep put the title to whatever u want.

 

Please do this. The forum really needs some upgrades it's slow and glitchy af.

[BTS]

Change the thread title back please, if Teoscar has an OPS > 800 by June 1st (assuming he is still on the majors) Ill donate 500$ to this forum and u can keep put the title to whatever u want.

 

Deal

[saskjayfan]

The Mirage!

 

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/no-one-hitting-ball-like-blue-jays-teoscar-hernandez-160745742.html

[Dr. Dinger]

Change the thread title back please, if Teoscar has an OPS > 800 by June 1st (assuming he is still on the majors) Ill donate 500$ to this forum and u can keep put the title to whatever u want.

 

This seems like an extremely poor wager for you.

[Terminator]

This seems like an extremely poor wager for you.

 

Yeah he's got such a massive head start that something like a .700 OPS over the course of May should get him there.

[John_Havok]

This seems like an extremely poor wager for you.

 

Might be banking on a demotion to AAA at some point due to a roster crunch since he did caveat by saying "assuming he is still in the majors"

[Terminator]

The problem that guys like Tercet have (and he's certainly not alone, this applies to anyone who seems so absolutely certain about anything) is that for every prospect and player, there is a range of outcomes that they refuse to account for. So take Teoscar, maybe entering the season he had a 5% chance of becoming an All-Star, a 30% chance of becoming a regular, a 40% chance of becoming a 4th OF, and then a 25% chance of flaming out and being minor league fodder.

 

Perhaps someone like me would give him an increased chance of becoming a regular and a decreased chance of flaming out, but I'd definitely consider all ranges.

 

But someone like Tercet probably would give him well over a 50% chance of flaming out. To further compound the problem they consider anything over a 50% chance of happening more in terms of a 90-10 split when it's really closer to 50-50 or 60-40. Nate Silver has discussed this phenomenon before. Not sure if this makes sense but I'll see if I can find Silver explaining it.

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah he's got such a massive head start that something like a .700 OPS over the course of May should get him there.

 

I mean, yes, but also the fact that this is literally a one-way bet.

[Captain Adama]

Change the thread title back please, if Teoscar has an OPS > 800 by June 1st (assuming he is still on the majors) Ill donate 500$ to this forum and u can keep put the title to whatever u want.

 

Money to burn must be such a nice thing to have.

[el diego]

The problem that guys like Tercet have (and he's certainly not alone, this applies to anyone who seems so absolutely certain about anything) is that for every prospect and player, there is a range of outcomes that they refuse to account for. So take Teoscar, maybe entering the season he had a 5% chance of becoming an All-Star, a 30% chance of becoming a regular, a 40% chance of becoming a 4th OF, and then a 25% chance of flaming out and being minor league fodder.

 

Perhaps someone like me would give him an increased chance of becoming a regular and a decreased chance of flaming out, but I'd definitely consider all ranges.

 

But someone like Tercet probably would give him well over a 50% chance of flaming out. To further compound the problem they consider anything over a 50% chance of happening more in terms of a 90-10 split when it's really closer to 50-50 or 60-40. Nate Silver has discussed this phenomenon before. Not sure if this makes sense but I'll see if I can find Silver explaining it.

 

I think you've hit the nail on the head. I see this phenomenon a lot with baseball fans of advanced metrics. The general idea behind these advanced metrics is that you get a better chance of predicting a player's most likely outcome, but people look at these stats to show that definitely outcome X will happen because "Look at these overwhelming numbers I have on my side", as if nothing can ever change. Well, of course things can change. Players get their eyes checked, players get injured/healthy, players change their swings, pitchers change how they approach hitters, players become more mature, etc. The thing is, I don't need to provide you with an explanation as to why numbers can change from the minors to the majors (or within the majors) because it happens. You'd think Blue Jays fans, who just witnessed what Bautista and Encarnacion did, would realize this. I'm not saying this happens often, that's why advanced metrics work, but it certainly does happen.

 

Now, if all tercet was saying was "Look, maybe Teoscar has changed but his numbers from his career show this is likely not sustainable so I'd rather bet on those numbers than whatever purported change you claim" I may agree with him. I think people can very easily create post-hoc explanations for players on a hot streak (e.g. Goins and his bat resting on his shoulder) that are really not the true explanation. But his complete trust in the numbers without ever contemplating that he doesn't have every single variable accounted for to 100% accuracy is absurd. It is as if he truly believes that if you just gave him the data and a computer that he would be able to build a World Series winner every year without doing anything other than seeing who has the best WAR and K rate etc. historically.

[John_Havok]

I think you've hit the nail on the head. I see this phenomenon a lot with baseball fans of advanced metrics. The general idea behind these advanced metrics is that you get a better chance of predicting a player's most likely outcome, but people look at these stats to show that definitely outcome X will happen because "Look at these overwhelming numbers I have on my side", as if nothing can ever change.

 

Anyone telling you something will definitely happen because of analytics is an idiot and doesn't actually understand them, what they are for and is probably just trying to sound smart.

 

And anyone that bashes them is usually a dinosaur like Buck and Pat and Harold Reynolds... like if there's one thing that analytics doesn't account for then it must be useless and long live the eye test.. because that's never failed ever.

[KingKat]

I think you've hit the nail on the head. I see this phenomenon a lot with baseball fans of advanced metrics. The general idea behind these advanced metrics is that you get a better chance of predicting a player's most likely outcome, but people look at these stats to show that definitely outcome X will happen because "Look at these overwhelming numbers I have on my side", as if nothing can ever change. Well, of course things can change. Players get their eyes checked, players get injured/healthy, players change their swings, pitchers change how they approach hitters, players become more mature, etc. The thing is, I don't need to provide you with an explanation as to why numbers can change from the minors to the majors (or within the majors) because it happens. You'd think Blue Jays fans, who just witnessed what Bautista and Encarnacion did, would realize this. I'm not saying this happens often, that's why advanced metrics work, but it certainly does happen.

 

Now, if all tercet was saying was "Look, maybe Teoscar has changed but his numbers from his career show this is likely not sustainable so I'd rather bet on those numbers than whatever purported change you claim" I may agree with him. I think people can very easily create post-hoc explanations for players on a hot streak (e.g. Goins and his bat resting on his shoulder) that are really not the true explanation. But his complete trust in the numbers without ever contemplating that he doesn't have every single variable accounted for to 100% accuracy is absurd. It is as if he truly believes that if you just gave him the data and a computer that he would be able to build a World Series winner every year without doing anything other than seeing who has the best WAR and K rate etc. historically.

 

Is Tercet even looking at the number? Teoscar's minor league numbers were actually good and most people here were quite happy with the acquisition. This seems motivated either by a puerile desire to rain on the parade or a ridiculous overreaction to Teoscar's small sample size k rate of 2017. Teoscar was good in the minors but his hot start in the majors last season was really weird and unsustainable. His plate discipline numbers got worse but his net results were ridiculously good. This year his K rate is back where it normally is and that's good. He's looking a lot like the player we were happy to get in the first place but with the added bonus of some brief major league success under his belt. There's really no reason to hate on Teoscar unless you want to stay stuck on last year's near 40% k rate over 27 games. Is Teoscar always going to put up the number he's putting up now? Of course he isn't but no one in their right mind would project him for a 450 wOBA going forward anyways. If you're railing against that, you're railing against the most casual form of analysis, a straw man argument really.

[el diego]

Is Tercet even looking at the number? Teoscar's minor league numbers were actually good and most people here were quite happy with the acquisition. This seems motivated either by a puerile desire to rain on the parade or a ridiculous overreaction to Teoscar's small sample size k rate of 2017. Teoscar was good in the minors but his hot start in the majors last season was really weird and unsustainable. His plate discipline numbers got worse but his net results were ridiculously good. This year his K rate is back where it normally is and that's good. He's looking a lot like the player we were happy to get in the first place but with the added bonus of some brief major league success under his belt. There's really no reason to hate on Teoscar unless you want to stay stuck on last year's near 40% k rate over 27 games. Is Teoscar always going to put up the number he's putting up now? Of course he isn't but no one in their right mind would project him for a 450 wOBA going forward anyways. If you're railing against that, you're railing against the most casual form of analysis, a straw man argument really.

 

Idk tbh, I haven't done a deep dive into Teoscar. It's very possible that he's come up with a conclusion first and explanation later, just like many others do.

 

Anyone telling you something will definitely happen because of analytics is an idiot and doesn't actually understand them, what they are for and is probably just trying to sound smart.

 

And anyone that bashes them is usually a dinosaur like Buck and Pat and Harold Reynolds... like if there's one thing that analytics doesn't account for then it must be useless and long live the eye test.. because that's never failed ever.

 

Yes I don't get this line of thinking either. It really does seem like people take an all or nothing stance on this, or maybe those opinions are what I choose to read/what's most salient.

[Spanky99]

Why is everyone so stupid and thinks he is good?

 

A free swinger that ks too much and doesnt walk.

 

OMG 20 ABS