Tercet bets against himself, loses $500

[BTS]

Really going out on a limb there... Last season only 23 hitters had an OPS of .900 or better. Rizzo, Smoak, Springer, EE, Gary Sanchez, Gallo, Posey, Carlos Santana all were under. I'd be thrilled if Teoscar settled in around .800 with average D.

 

Why would you trade Teoscar for a decent backup C?

 

I think sarcasm is flying over your heads here guys.

[Terminator]

He's better than Grichuk

 

Yes for all the Teoscar doubters I would love to hear arguments why Grichuk is slam dunk better. The argument against Teoscar is untenable plate discipline yet Grichuk has put up a career 30% K-Rate.

[Terminator]

I think sarcasm is flying over your heads here guys.

 

Oh ok couldn't tell through the text

[BTS]

Yes for all the Teoscar doubters I would love to hear arguments why Grichuk is slam dunk better. The argument against Teoscar is untenable plate discipline yet Grichuk has put up a career 30% K-Rate.

 

They have similar offensive profiles, but Grichuk has established himself as a clear plus defender at least. I trust Grichuk as a cromulent short term starter even if it's a 95 wRC+ bat. I don't have that same faith in Hernandez.

[Terminator]

They have similar offensive profiles, but Grichuk has established himself as a clear plus defender at least. I trust Grichuk as a cromulent short term starter even if it's a 95 wRC+ bat. I don't have that same faith in Hernandez.

 

Ok so it's not so much liking Grichuk as you don't seem to expect much of him, you just really don't like Teoscar.

 

Well Grichuk is nearly a full WAR behind Teoscar already this season. Let's see if he closes the gap over the course of the season.

[Terminator]

I would say all 5 of our current OFers are bunched really close together. Granderson, Pearce (due to his defense he has the lowest ceiling), Pillar, Grichuk and Teoscar. It would not surprise me if Teoscar is the best of that bunch nor would it surprise me if he were to be outplayed by a couple of them. Probably a lot of variance with him, he might have the highest ceiling though.

[BTS]

Ok so it's not so much liking Grichuk as you don't seem to expect much of him, you just really don't like Teoscar.

 

Well Grichuk is nearly a full WAR behind Teoscar already this season. Let's see if he closes the gap over the course of the season.

 

I think both have a lot of upside. Hopefully one reaches it. I’ll be more encouraged about Hernandez if he ends up displaying plus corner defense, because the K/BB skills make me apprehensive.

[Orgfiller]

They have similar offensive profiles, but Grichuk has established himself as a clear plus defender at least. I trust Grichuk as a cromulent short term starter even if it's a 95 wRC+ bat. I don't have that same faith in Hernandez.

 

I think the main thing you guys are missing and what makes Teoscar and Grichuk so similar is that both can absolutely crush baseballs. For both it comes at the expense of consistent contact, but clearly they're the type of guys the team loves. Teoscar hits baseballs VERY hard, he strikes out a lot but ostensibly not Joey Gallo level, walks enough to not be Kevin Pillar at the plate, is clearly a plus runner and it would be surprising if his athleticism didn't translate to average defense at least. All of those to me sound like the qualities of an at least average MLB regular, where in seasons that he can manage to cut the swing and miss rate he can be a very valuable contributor.

 

I just don't see the argument for why they're so different, yes Grichuk has proven to be a good defender at the highest level, but it's not like Hernandez has shown that he's clueless out there. I think they're very similar players, one just happens to have a longer track record which is obviously valuable for assessing what kind of player he'll be going forward at the MLB.

[The Cats Ass]

How much do you want to bet? I’ll go up to 10k cdn. Your sending to an escrow, I’m not sending as I have a 12 year track record for bets on this site and in poker.

 

I’m up for a bet that if given 375abs Hernandez will have a worse wrc then the average of Grichucks 16/17 wrc. If Hernandez doesn’t get 375abs (bc he sucks) I win.

 

Not sure he'll make 375 abs this year or not because of our current OF situation. And are you talking wRC or wRC+?

[Terminator]

I think the main thing you guys are missing and what makes Teoscar and Grichuk so similar is that both can absolutely crush baseballs. For both it comes at the expense of consistent contact, but clearly they're the type of guys the team loves. Teoscar hits baseballs VERY hard, he strikes out a lot but ostensibly not Joey Gallo level, walks enough to not be Kevin Pillar at the plate, is clearly a plus runner and it would be surprising if his athleticism didn't translate to average defense at least. All of those to me sound like the qualities of an at least average MLB regular, where in seasons that he can manage to cut the swing and miss rate he can be a very valuable contributor.

 

I just don't see the argument for why they're so different, yes Grichuk has proven to be a good defender at the highest level, but it's not like Hernandez has shown that he's clueless out there. I think they're very similar players, one just happens to have a longer track record which is obviously valuable for assessing what kind of player he'll be going forward at the MLB.

 

They actually are pretty similar on first glance but I think the swing and miss issues with Grichuk are pretty well evidenced at this point (he would have been fourth in K% last year if he had qualified). His career walk rate isn't even that much better than Pillar's tbh and his career OBP is .293. So yeah, Teoscar won't be Joey Gallo level strikeouts and Kevin Pillar walk rates but Grichuk almost is. He has overcome that to a large degree with his power and defense but his flaws may be catching up with him. He's getting worse each year, not better.

 

It's not going to take a miracle for Teoscar to outproduce him at this point. I think it's probably more likely that Teoscar settles in as a starting MLB OFer and Grichuk steps back to a 4th OF role than it is the other way around.

 

Anyone who disagrees is a racist who is picking Grichuk merely because he is a white male.

[Terminator]

How much do you want to bet? I’ll go up to 10k cdn. Your sending to an escrow, I’m not sending as I have a 12 year track record for bets on this site and in poker.

 

I’m up for a bet that if given 375abs Hernandez will have a worse wrc then the average of Grichucks 16/17 wrc. If Hernandez doesn’t get 375abs (bc he sucks) I win.

 

I'll bet you 100 USD that Teoscar out WARs Grichuk this year.

[Maico450]

I think sarcasm is flying over your heads here guys.

 

Definitely no sarcasm. Sometimes I can get a bit facetious though.

[The Cats Ass]

Lets have fun with small sample sizes. Out of all currently active OFers with atleast 100 PAs in their career, Hernandez ranks 20th in career wRC+.

[glory]

Hernandez's walk rate in the minors was better than Grichuk's, and his K% was never this bad prior to coming to Toronto. I don't think it's unreasonable to like him better than Grichuk offensively, but a lot will depend on his k/bb. I like Grichuk's power, defence, and running, but not sure if he will ever overcome the k/bb issues. Hernandez at least has a minor league history of being better in that area.

[Orgfiller]

Lol Teoscar Hernandez is the top searched name on fangraphs. Good job guys.

[Daniel Labude]

Why is everyone so stupid and thinks he is good?

 

A free swinger that ks too much and doesnt walk.

 

OMG 20 ABS

 

 

So you just described Aaron Judge at the same point in his career right.....lol

[wilko]

So Teoscar Hernandez > rest of Jay's current OF?

[Brownie19]

Are contact rates available for minor league stats?

 

I'd love to look further into Teoscar in Houston v. Teoscar in Toronto. The K% rate seems to have spike significantly since he was traded to Toronto.

[Maico450]

Are contact rates available for minor league stats?

 

I'd love to look further into Teoscar in Houston v. Teoscar in Toronto. The K% rate seems to have spike significantly since he was traded to Toronto.

 

New team. Maybe just trying too hard. He is showing better plate discipline in 2018.

[Boxcar]

So you just described Aaron Judge at the same point in his career right.....lol

 

You realize that Aaron Judge is basically an impossible outcome, right? You can not invoke Judge to dismiss any arguments, that's just silly.

[BTS]

You realize that Aaron Judge is basically an impossible outcome, right? You can not invoke Judge to dismiss any arguments, that's just silly.

 

This reminds me of when Jose Bautista was invoked any time someone here pointed out that a bad 30-year old would likely stay bad. "Oh, Randy Ruiz won't keep hitting? I bet you said the same about JOSE BAUTISTA."

[saskjayfan]

You realize that Aaron Judge is basically an impossible outcome, right? You can not invoke Judge to dismiss any arguments, that's just silly.

 

The Judge comparison is just illustrating a point. Judge took a massive step forward at age 25. There's no way you could have projected that going into last season. Projecting Teoscar is not easy because he's still a relatively young player and projecting is really difficult, especially when your talking about a player who physically is more gifted than most. He could be a league average or worse hitter, but he could also be 10% or 20% + better than league average player. Judge took a leap that made him an MVP candidate.

 

No one is suggesting that will be the case with Teoscar, but limiting his potential upside based off minor league stats doesn't always work with young players that can have material growth that makes those minor league stats immaterial. His minor league stats were far from terrible, and his major league stats may end up being just as good or better when you would normal expect them to take a dip.

[Daniel Labude]

You realize that Aaron Judge is basically an impossible outcome, right? You can not invoke Judge to dismiss any arguments, that's just silly.

 

Never said it was. Just pointing out how reliance on MiLB numbers does not tell the future story of any prospect or SSS in the majors. I mean seriously...90% of this board said Sanchez sucked and is a RP and then when Stroman struggled said the same. Could be 1 hit wonder years from them....but seriously players get better...some exponentially once they hit the majors(coaching and better players can makes hitters and pitchers better depending on their stuff). Most fall off from their MiLB numbers but don't throw out a player based on MiLB numbers. Heck. Tebow could be a serviceable MLB at some point. Most of the world laughed at him even being a MiLB player. He is holding his own in the minors for someone who was projected to fail in a week

[Daniel Labude]

The Judge comparison is just illustrating a point. Judge took a massive step forward at age 25. There's no way you could have projected that going into last season. Projecting Teoscar is not easy because he's still a relatively young player and projecting is really difficult, especially when your talking about a player who physically is more gifted than most. He could be a league average or worse hitter, but he could also be 10% or 20% + better than league average player. Judge took a leap that made him an MVP candidate.

 

No one is suggesting that will be the case with Teoscar, but limiting his potential upside based off minor league stats doesn't always work with young players that can have material growth that makes those minor league stats immaterial. His minor league stats were far from terrible, and his major league stats may end up being just as good or better when you would normal expect them to take a dip.

 

All of this!!!....amazing post

[John_Havok]

Never said it was. Just pointing out how reliance on MiLB numbers does not tell the future story of any prospect or SSS in the majors. I mean seriously...90% of this board said Sanchez sucked and is a RP and then when Stroman struggled said the same. Could be 1 hit wonder years from them....but seriously players get better...some exponentially once they hit the majors(coaching and better players can makes hitters and pitchers better depending on their stuff). Most fall off from their MiLB numbers but don't throw out a player based on MiLB numbers. Heck. Tebow could be a serviceable MLB at some point. Most of the world laughed at him even being a MiLB player. He is holding his own in the minors for someone who was projected to fail in a week

 

All of what you said can be true... however for every player you mentioned or any guy that comes out of nowhere from the minors and suddenly dominates after having that random breakthrough after having pedestrian minor league numbers, there are 1000 guys with the same pedestrian minor league numbers that don't break through. Simply pointing out that 1% (or less) of them have different outcomes doesn't mean that a player's minor league numbers aren't predictive, because for the overwhelmingly vast majority of players, they absolutely are.

[Boxcar]

Never said it was. Just pointing out how reliance on MiLB numbers does not tell the future story of any prospect or SSS in the majors. I mean seriously...90% of this board said Sanchez sucked and is a RP and then when Stroman struggled said the same. Could be 1 hit wonder years from them....but seriously players get better...some exponentially once they hit the majors(coaching and better players can makes hitters and pitchers better depending on their stuff). Most fall off from their MiLB numbers but don't throw out a player based on MiLB numbers. Heck. Tebow could be a serviceable MLB at some point. Most of the world laughed at him even being a MiLB player. He is holding his own in the minors for someone who was projected to fail in a week

 

Well, to be fair, Sanchez's good season looks like an abberation thus far so he may still suck.

[vdubmvp]

How much do you want to bet? I’ll go up to 10k cdn. Your sending to an escrow, I’m not sending as I have a 12 year track record for bets on this site and in poker.

 

I’m up for a bet that if given 375abs Hernandez will have a worse wrc then the average of Grichucks 16/17 wrc. If Hernandez doesn’t get 375abs (bc he sucks) I win.

 

lol jesus christ

[Omar]

Never said it was. Just pointing out how reliance on MiLB numbers does not tell the future story of any prospect or SSS in the majors. I mean seriously...90% of this board said Sanchez sucked and is a RP and then when Stroman struggled said the same. Could be 1 hit wonder years from them....but seriously players get better...some exponentially once they hit the majors(coaching and better players can makes hitters and pitchers better depending on their stuff). Most fall off from their MiLB numbers but don't throw out a player based on MiLB numbers. Heck. Tebow could be a serviceable MLB at some point. Most of the world laughed at him even being a MiLB player. He is holding his own in the minors for someone who was projected to fail in a week

 

Reliance on numbers is the best predictor of future success and in fact does tell the future story within a standard deviation of two percent. If we look at prospect ranking, wherein historically Baseball Prospectus has been the best predictor of future WAR (versus Baseball America or Sickels) at the major league level. But when evaluating prospects future mlb value, it does not stop there; within a given evalution of a player draft ranking historically has been a very good predictor as well as factoring in organization/team where said player is developed (the best teams statistically have been the Indians, Rockies, Phillies and Mariners). College players with at least one year attendance have almost a 6% better chance of being a successful mlb player versus those who don't attend (all other things being equal).

 

If Teoscar is 2 WAR player the Jays will not be surprised cause they aren't expecting anything more. If they get something better, it will be gravy.

 

What does all this mean? Two things: 1. A lot of thinking goes into ranking propects and the numbers certainly play a big part. 2. No one on this board should take tercet's bet, chances are you would lose.

[CraigG]

Let me get this... the knock on Teoscar is he strikes out a lot... but Grichuk strikes out more so Grichuk gets to stay up. Got it, makes perfect sense.

[P2F]

Let me get this... the knock on Teoscar is he strikes out a lot... but Grichuk strikes out more so Grichuk gets to stay up. Got it, makes perfect sense.

 

Asset management (particularly taking advantage of option years) is a thing. Grichuk has no options remaining, so he would be exposed to waivers if the Jays were to send him to the minors. Your point, though flawed to begin with, is moot.