General 2018 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Jonn]

If the Blue Jays are in a legit wild card race Vlad’d up in July or August. At the minimum hes up in September along with Bo.

[Terminator]

So September callups don't matter for service time right? I'd call him up in September and then assuming Donaldson leaves I'd call him up for good next April or May (whenever the service time manipulation sets in).

[Boxcar]

What is with everyone trying to burn Vladdy's service time? Christ, just brutal asset management if you bring him up now.

 

If he can make this team better and the team is competitive, how is calling him up messing with his service time, exactly?

 

I'm not saying I do or don't think he'd make the team better but if someone is arguing that he would, it's perfectly fine to call him up now.

[Terminator]

Is Vlad's defense good enough to play 3B full-time next year? He's not going to be a -20 UZR type of fielder is he? From what I've read he should be competent enough there, I'm just wondering if he'll be a big league 3B at age 20.

[Carlos Danger]

By the time it matters, the rules for service time might have changed anyway after the new Collective Bargaining Agreement in 2022.

 

That said, I think it'd be too early to call him up now. September? Maybe. Next year - starting 3B assuming JD leaves.

 

JD is going to the Braves, BOOK IT!!! (*In FA)

[Grant77]

Is Vlad's defense good enough to play 3B full-time next year? He's not going to be a -20 UZR type of fielder is he? From what I've read he should be competent enough there, I'm just wondering if he'll be a big league 3B at age 20.

 

We're looking at a below average fielder if you ask me, but he's no E5 out there. He reminds me a lot of a young Miguel Cabrera in the field.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

We're looking at a below average fielder if you ask me, but he's no E5 out there. He reminds me a lot of a young Miguel Cabrera in the field.

 

If Vladdie lives up to his potential as a hitter his defence will be overlooked if there is a decent player at first base!

If the first baseman is a tomato can then let the talk begin about have Vladdie move there.

[Deadpool]

If he can make this team better and the team is competitive, how is calling him up messing with his service time, exactly?

 

I'm not saying I do or don't think he'd make the team better but if someone is arguing that he would, it's perfectly fine to call him up now.

 

We've already got a roster crunch going on, and we're winning ballgames with the current line-up. The only piece that really makes sense to give up on is Morales, and then that would mean that Vladdy switching between 3rd and DH with Dondaldson and Pearce (DH only, obviously).

 

I just don't see a situation where the best move is bringing him up, rather than developing him. Now, if Donaldson is out for a long time, AND another injury happens where he'd be playing 4/5 or more games, then sure, but I don't see the rush with our current roster. We don't have an obvious position of need at the moment (yes, there are positions that could be improved, but Diaz/Solarte/Gurriel/Travis is a solid enough left side of the infield until Donaldson is back that I don't see the need to rush him.)

[Dr. Dinger]

So September callups don't matter for service time right? I'd call him up in September and then assuming Donaldson leaves I'd call him up for good next April or May (whenever the service time manipulation sets in).

 

This is almost certainly the gameplan for Vlad and Bo.

[Boxcar]

We've already got a roster crunch going on, and we're winning ballgames with the current line-up. The only piece that really makes sense to give up on is Morales, and then that would mean that Vladdy switching between 3rd and DH with Dondaldson and Pearce (DH only, obviously).

 

I just don't see a situation where the best move is bringing him up, rather than developing him. Now, if Donaldson is out for a long time, AND another injury happens where he'd be playing 4/5 or more games, then sure, but I don't see the rush with our current roster. We don't have an obvious position of need at the moment (yes, there are positions that could be improved, but Diaz/Solarte/Gurriel/Travis is a solid enough left side of the infield until Donaldson is back that I don't see the need to rush him.)

 

We're winning games against s***** teams, that's an important distinction.

 

I think it would be pretty easy to find ABs for Vlad, and it isn't like he's likely to stay at 3B anyway. He may end up replacing Smoak, not JD.

 

Anyway, my point was that he's past the threshold so we'd still get the extra year by bringing him up now.

[Bobthe4th]

This is almost certainly the gameplan for Vlad and Bo.

 

Not certain they call both up at the same time. I think it’s more likely Vlad gets the call first. Perhaps Bo = September 2019?

[Deadpool]

We're winning games against s***** teams, that's an important distinction.

 

I think it would be pretty easy to find ABs for Vlad, and it isn't like he's likely to stay at 3B anyway. He may end up replacing Smoak, not JD.

 

Anyway, my point was that he's past the threshold so we'd still get the extra year by bringing him up now.

 

True, definitely s***** teams. And I guess if you're resigned to him coming up this year, now would work out... Though, Smoak is still rocking a 129 wRC+, and I'm not even sure that Vladdy has played even a single inning at 1st as a professional, so it's not like you need to get him out of there. I'm sure you could find at bats, but does it drastically improve the team at the moment? I'm not sure, and could it hurt his development (particularly on defence)? Maybe.

 

I think the Gurriel move makes more sense at the moment, anyway.

[Brownie19]

Steamers projects Vlady to be a 101 wRC+ hitter in the majors right now. There's absolutely no way you start his clock if you believe that's the level of success he'd have in the majors this year. Obviously trying to determine how good he could hit ML pitching right now is very difficult, but I'd have to imagine that if the Jays FO called him up now, they'd believe there's a good chance he's a 120+ wRC+ hitter.

 

The only other way I think they'd consider it is if there's a long term injury to JD or Smoak. Otherwise, Solarte and/or Morales provide offensive production at the positions that Vlady would play.

[Boxcar]

Steamers projects Vlady to be a 101 wRC+ hitter in the majors right now. There's absolutely no way you start his clock if you believe that's the level of success he'd have in the majors this year. Obviously trying to determine how good he could hit ML pitching right now is very difficult, but I'd have to imagine that if the Jays FO called him up now, they'd believe there's a good chance he's a 120+ wRC+ hitter.

 

The only other way I think they'd consider it is if there's a long term injury to JD or Smoak. Otherwise, Solarte and/or Morales provide offensive production at the positions that Vlady would play.

 

Steamer tends to be extremely low on prospects. Vlad's Steamer projection has to be one of the highest ever for a 19 year old.

[Jonn]

 

Bowden is a tool but I'm happy to hear LGJ is starting tonight!

[John_Havok]

 

Bowden is a tool but I'm happy to hear LGJ is starting tonight!

 

Yeah, doesn't make sense to call him up unless he's going to start.

[Brownie19]

Yeah, doesn't make sense to call him up unless he's going to start.

 

Travis to the DL is going to be the next move...

[Sorrow]

Nice to see that we've got a good bench now that you no longer dread the bench coming into play. Hoping that Grichuk's luck starts turning soon as well. He's something like 17th in the MLB in hard hit % but has such a terrible BABIP.

 

Would be nice to see Travis get it going again but at least we have Diaz/Solarte who if Travis does stay like this can be a nice replacement.

[devo]

I dunno. Grichuk is 126th in the MLB in hard hit % this season, almost a full 10% below his career average. Yes, he has had some hard hit balls hit directly at defenders, but hes also had lots of popups and weak grounders. Also, his LD% is down from 21% last season to 6% this year.

 

Combine that with his 34% K rate this season and you can see his struggles go beyond simply being unlucky.

 

Not to mention, anecdotally, that he's probably had the 2 worst AB's by a Jays hitter this year.

[Deadpool]

Nice to see that we've got a good bench now that you no longer dread the bench coming into play. Hoping that Grichuk's luck starts turning soon as well. He's something like 17th in the MLB in hard hit % but has such a terrible BABIP.

 

Would be nice to see Travis get it going again but at least we have Diaz/Solarte who if Travis does stay like this can be a nice replacement.

 

I've seen enough of Travis to know that when he's healthy, he should be MUCH better than this, I'm not overly worried about him. I also think that Grichuk will improve when he's had a bit more exposure to the league, he's always been a decently valuable player, and he's still young.

[Deadpool]

I dunno. Grichuk is 126th in the MLB in hard hit % this season, almost a full 10% below his career average. Yes, he has had some hard hit balls hit directly at defenders, but hes also had lots of popups and weak grounders. Also, his LD% is down from 21% last season to 6% this year.

 

Combine that with his 34% K rate this season and you can see his struggles go beyond simply being unlucky.

 

Not to mention, anecdotally, that he's probably had the 2 worst AB's by a Jays hitter this year.

 

65 PAs, moving leagues (which means he doesn't really know much about any of the pitchers that he's facing). I'll give him a bit of adjustment time before I worry. And he's a great defender and has speed. He'll be useful, even if he winds up as the 4th OF.

[Dr. Dinger]

moving leagues (which means he doesn't really know much about any of the pitchers that he's facing)

 

I've always felt this was a ******** Pat Tabler narrative. Pitchers aren't really that different, and you get scouting reports on all of them. Fastballs are fastballs and sliders are sliders. Even if you knew a pitcher from a former league, his repertoire and arm slot could be different now. Good hitters can hit anyone because they have a gameplan, pitch recognition, and hand-eye coordination.

[Deadpool]

I've always felt this was a ******** Pat Tabler narrative. Pitchers aren't really that different, and you get scouting reports on all of them. Fastballs are fastballs and sliders are sliders. Even if you knew a pitcher from a former league, his repertoire and arm slot could be different now. Good hitters can hit anyone because they have a gameplan, pitch recognition, and hand-eye coordination.

 

I've always felt it was more a deception/release point thing. I don't know how much merit there is to it, but Grichuk is far from the first player to struggle when changing leagues (I mean, Stanton isn't exactly hitting up to his level as of yet, I mean, not as bad as Grichuk, but definitely not where Stanton should be...)

[Brownie19]

I've always felt this was a ******** Pat Tabler narrative. Pitchers aren't really that different, and you get scouting reports on all of them. Fastballs are fastballs and sliders are sliders. Even if you knew a pitcher from a former league, his repertoire and arm slot could be different now. Good hitters can hit anyone because they have a gameplan, pitch recognition, and hand-eye coordination.

 

Agreed. Hitters read scouting reports on new pitchers they are facing and the pitchers read the scouting report on the new hitters they are facing. I don't know if it's easier for a pitcher to read a scouting report, identify the weakness and exploit it than it is for a hitter to read a scouting report and identify the pitchers strengths and tendencies.

 

I guess the former seems a little easier (this putz can't hit breaking balls low and away - attack), which might explain why pitchers have the upper hand initially?

[P2F]

A neat little analysis by Nick Pollack on how J.A. Happ has transformed himself into a K machine this season:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-j-a-happ-strikeout-king/

Edited April 21, 2018 by P2F

[glory]

Grichuk as a 4th outfielder really wouldn’t be that bad. He’s a good defender at all three spots plus has speed and pop. If that’s the worst case then I’ll take it.

 

If he’s a league average bat with his D and base running then he’s probably a 2 war player but that k%/bb% is butt ugly.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Hey do you think it'd be a good idea (with MODS approval) to start a sticky thread in this forum with only links to stories about the Jays in the various sports news sources (canoe.ca, tsn.ca etc).

 

Like

 

Gurriel shines in Blue Jays win at Yankee StadiuM

http://canoe.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/gurriel-shines-in-blue-jays-win-at-yankee-stadium/wcm/a77bd4a5-659c-44bf-af0c-699a457ba8b9

 

Non-paywall stuff of course.

[Brownie19]

A neat little analysis by Nick Pollack on how J.A. Happ has transformed himself into a K machine this season:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-j-a-happ-strikeout-king/

 

Hold on. Instead of using his 2 seamer to pitch to contact and induce weak contact, Happ has gone back to using the 4 seamer, pitching up in the zone like he did in Pittsburgh when he was dominant there for 2/3 of a season? Mimicking the approach he used during the most dominant stretch of his career? What a f***ing crazy concept...

[THANOS]

Hold on. Instead of using his 2 seamer to pitch to contact and induce weak contact, Happ has gone back to using the 4 seamer, pitching up in the zone like he did in Pittsburgh when he was dominant there for 2/3 of a season? Mimicking the approach he used during the most dominant stretch of his career? What a f***ing crazy concept...

 

If only Walker applied the same logic to the rest of the staff.

[bones10]

The starting pitching has been pretty much awful, hopefully stroman shows up for the first time this season today.