General 2018 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[z3r0s]

man do I love JD, but you can't extend him going into his age 33 season. Guys drop off a cliff around that time.

You'd have to get him on a steal

[Captain Adama]

man do I love JD, but you can't extend him going into his age 33 season. Guys drop off a cliff around that time.

You'd have to get him on a steal

 

I know what you're saying, I sure as f*** want to see JD around for a couple more years, especially since his trade value doesn't seem to be high with other teams. Damn though, it's gonna mean taking on an ugly contract I'm sure.

[z3r0s]

how spoiled have we been to watch on of the top 10 players in the game over the last 3 years (one of the best in the game over the last 5, but 2 in Oakland).

[saskjayfan]

man do I love JD, but you can't extend him going into his age 33 season. Guys drop off a cliff around that time.

You'd have to get him on a steal

 

On the Macro guys fall off a cliff mid 30s. When you look at the micro a guy like Beltre is projecting for a 4 win season next year for his age 39 season. You throw the blanket aging curve out the door and delve into Donaldson and determine what tools makes him as successful as he is. How will those tools look 3, 4 5+ years out. You're relying on your scouts and taking on big risk. It could be an epic flop or it could provide tremendous value. JD could be a 5 to 6 win player 3 or 4 years into his free agency. At that point his contract will provide huge value. You pair that with Vlad, Bo, Alford, Pearson...etc and that's how you build playoff teams. If you're wrong, you could be in a scenario where 3 to 4 years into a JD free agency contract you are trading off the Vlad's to get prospects for your next run.

 

At some point you have to gamble. I'm not sure if a JD gamble would be the right move or not. I do think given his age, you might get discount. Manny likely gets a higher AAV for 10 years than JD gets on a 5 year deal. He certainly gets a higher AAV if JD gets a 6 year deal. I think JD is easily the better player for the first 2 years. He might be the better player for 4 or 5 years of the deal. If that's the case, you've won.

[AledmysDiaz]

Jays expected to finish 4th based on Baseball Prospectus 79-83

 

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

Pretty fair projection, I'd say 79-83 is the range right now unless something changes. Their model appears to be more realistic than Fangraphs, they dont expect much from Travis, Sanchez, They also have pretty strong regression on Smoak, Estrada is expected to be replacement value,

 

Infact anyone not named Donaldson, Osuna, or Stroman they are pretty low on.

[z3r0s]

This season is all about putting ourselves in a position where if we excel and are healthy we have a chance. I'd say we are better than the Rays, and probably above .500 by a tiny bit, but well behind the Yanks and Sox. But we do have a chance if everything breaks right or s*** really hits the fan in NY or BOS.

[burlingtonbandit]

Aren't the Rays PETCOA projections always higher than what they end up. The Jays pitching is pretty bad I'll admit. That bullpen outside Osuna looks like steaming garbage.

 

Good thing is there are still pitchers on the market.

[G-Snarls]

Jays expected to finish 4th based on Baseball Prospectus 79-83

 

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

Pretty fair projection, I'd say 79-83 is the range right now unless something changes. Their model appears to be more realistic than Fangraphs, they dont expect much from Travis, Sanchez, They also have pretty strong regression on Smoak, Estrada is expected to be replacement value,

 

Infact anyone not named Donaldson, Osuna, or Stroman they are pretty low on.

 

I agree

 

Jays feel like a 3rd/4th place team as it stands. BOS and NYY clearly better on paper but BOS has a way of blowing it at times. BAL likely 5th and TB likely 3 or 4 with TOR in the other spot

 

But it's a long season and anything can happen.

[Key22]

I believe I read that JD's girlfriend is from Toronto and that he does like Canada - I think his comments may actually be genuine. Not everyone is about the top dollar - tons of free agents have taken less money somewhere even though the Yankees offered top coin. So the player chose less money and less years to be on teams with less chance to win.

 

Toronto has a decent shot perhaps 5 years and $140 million (which starts this season over riding his 1 year $23million. So it gives him $7million more this season (with inflation $7million more money today is better than $7 million in 2022).

2018 $30m

2019 $30m

2020 $30m

2021 $30m

2022 $20m (2023 and 2024 vest together)

2023 $20m vesting option

2024 $20m vesting option

 

Add a bunch of incentives and who knows. I mean he will probably be very good at 3b for at least the next three years. Then move him to first and then dh.

[Bobthe4th]

I believe I read that JD's girlfriend is from Toronto and that he does like Canada - I think his comments may actually be genuine. Not everyone is about the top dollar - tons of free agents have taken less money somewhere even though the Yankees offered top coin. So the player chose less money and less years to be on teams with less chance to win.

 

Toronto has a decent shot perhaps 5 years and $140 million (which starts this season over riding his 1 year $23million. So it gives him $7million more this season (with inflation $7million more money today is better than $7 million in 2022).

2018 $30m

2019 $30m

2020 $30m

2021 $30m

2022 $20m (2023 and 2024 vest together)

2023 $20m vesting option

2024 $20m vesting option

 

Add a bunch of incentives and who knows. I mean he will probably be very good at 3b for at least the next three years. Then move him to first and then dh.

 

In that scenario you can't count the $23m he's already getting in 2018, so it's effectively $117m for 4 years, plus 2 vesting years. Zero chance his agent even responds to an offer that low, even if he was desperate to stay with the Jays.

[Brownie19]

In that scenario you can't count the $23m he's already getting in 2018, so it's effectively $117m for 4 years, plus 2 vesting years. Zero chance his agent even responds to an offer that low, even if he was desperate to stay with the Jays.

 

+1. That's an incredibly bad offer for JD - even in this market. Like 1% of vesting options are picked up, so it's safe to ignore those.

[glory]

My guess is he will try for something like 5/175, not counting 2018. If the Jays didn't have Martin and Tulo, then I might be ok with one really big and potentially bad (down the road) contract, but with those two plus Morales making $51m in 2018, $52M in 2019, and then Tulo still being around in 2020, it would be a few years before JD became the sole bad contract.

[AledmysDiaz]

Blair/Zwelling/Nicholson-Smith were discussing it on the Bluejays Podcast

 

None of them thinks that the offer is beyond 3 years,

 

Which is insulting IMO

[L54]

They aren't going to make a statement claiming their offer would make him a Jay for the rest of his career and go out and offer him three years

[glory]

 

[AledmysDiaz]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good K to BB ratio last year.

[Brownie19]

Big time GB pitcher (career GB% > 61%). He's never been a high strikeout guy though, so the 25 innings last year is probably a mirage unless he made tangible changes. He's been hurt a lot. Throws hard, worth a look.

[Ehjays]

Blue Jays To Sign Jake Petricka

By Jeff Todd | February 8, 2018 at 10:25am CDT

The Blue Jays have agreed to a minor-league deal with righty Jake Petricka, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). He’ll have the opportunity to earn a $1.3MM base salary with $500K in incentives if he can crack the MLB roster.

Petricka, 29, is a former second-rounder who has delivered good results at times in the majors. Between 2013 and 2015, he posted a 3.24 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 over 144 1/3 innings. Despite the middling strikeout and walk figures, Petricka allowed only five home runs in that span. With a mid-nineties sinker, he has traditionally delivered big groundball rates (61.5% career).

Unfortunately, injuries and performance lapses arose more recently. A hip procedure cost Petrickamost of 2016. And he managed only 25 2/3 innings last year, allowing twenty earned runs but also posting a 26:6 K/BB ratio. He ultimately underwent a nerve transposition and flexor tendon debridement procedure in October of 2017.

At the time of that surgery, it was estimated Petricka would need to lay off for at least three or four months. The White Sox ended up non-tendering him rather than working out an arbitration salary. (He projected to earn $1.1MM.) With just over four years of MLB service on his clock, Petricka could still be tendered a contract in the future.

Petricka’s current status isn’t fully clear, but in all likelihood he’ll be handled with some care as he works back to full health. Whether or not he’ll have a real shot at earning a MLB pen job in camp, Petricka could well represent an interesting option for the Jays at some point in the coming season.

[G-Snarls]

 

[Boxcar]

Oh god I don't want JD to leave

[devo]

 

 

I assume hes responding from this excerpt from a Heyman article today:

 

"Josh Donaldson is believed to be seeking a monster payday, according to friends, and while he may not hit his goal (some think he may be shooting too high), he benefits from Manny Machado’s move to shortstop since he’d become the top third base option if Machado stays at shortstop as a free agent."

[Orgfiller]

 

 

I don't understand what the top tweet has to do with anything lol.

[THANOS]

I don't understand what the top tweet has to do with anything lol.

 

I could be wrong, but didn't Atkins insinuate on Pitchtalks that he gave his agent am extension offer already and now JD says he's never received one??

[Abomination]

I could be wrong, but didn't Atkins insinuate on Pitchtalks that he gave his agent am extension offer already and now JD says he's never received one??

 

I think they suggested they gave the agent an indication of what they'd be comfortable with, but I'm not sure they ever gave him a formal offer.

[art_vandelay275]

I don't understand what the top tweet has to do with anything lol.

 

maybe it's just me but I was confused with both tweets. Here's the context

 

 

[Spanky__99]

 

 

lol

[Spanky__99]

Oh god I don't want JD to leave

 

That was awesome... JD- Who said that, Heyman...

[Brownie19]

*haven't. f***.

[z3r0s]

I've always liked Axford for no really good reason. Hopefully he can not suck!

[Jonn]

I've always liked Axford for no really good reason. Hopefully he can not suck!

 

Still throws hard just didn’t throw any strikes last year.