Offseason Roster Thread 2017-18

[saskjayfan]

Is 3/54 even too much for a guy that projects at around 3 wins this year? Biggest red flag would be if he needs a 4th year IMO.

 

he's 10 months younger than Tulo....18 mil for the next 3 or 4 years is a bit scary for a guy who's had his knee torn up.

[P2F]

Is 3/54 even too much for a guy that projects at around 3 wins this year? Biggest red flag would be if he needs a 4th year IMO.

 

It's not too much for a 3-win player. I'm just spit-balling here, so bear with me, but I just don't know how I feel about giving $18M per year to a player who had a breakout offensive season at the age of 32. If Cozart were to regress to his career norms next season, that's a lot to pay a SS whose value is derived almost exclusively from his glove.

 

I kinda like Cozart, but that contract would be pushing my comfort threshold. I think I'd let him sign with someone else at that term. If he could come here at 3/42, that's obviously much more preferable. A fourth year would be out of the question, imo.

 

I do like your idea of using him as a utility player to cover the left side of the infield while everyone is healthy, though.

[Grant77]

The Astros are offering up Mike Fiers and his projected 5.7 mil salary for a bag of balls. He saw a spike in home runs last year, but is otherwise relatively unchanged from past years. I prefer him to most of the backend starters on the FA market and at that salary, he would also be a suitable long man in the bullpen. Thoughts?

[Brownie19]

It's not too much for a 3-win player. I'm just spit-balling here, so bear with me, but I just don't know how I feel about giving $18M per year to a player who had a breakout offensive season at the age of 32. If Cozart were to regress to his career norms next season, that's a lot to pay a SS whose value is derived almost exclusively from his glove.

 

I kinda like Cozart, but that contract would be pushing my comfort threshold. I think I'd let him sign with someone else at that term. If he could come here at 3/42, that's obviously much more preferable. A fourth year would be out of the question, imo.

 

I do like your idea of using him as a utility player to cover the left side of the infield while everyone is healthy, though.

 

You have to ask yourself how likely it is that he's a 3 win player. He's reached that level once in his career. Last year, at age 32. He's a career 90 wRC+ hitter.

[BTS]

The Astros are offering up Mike Fiers and his projected 5.7 mil salary for a bag of balls. He saw a spike in home runs last year, but is otherwise relatively unchanged from past years. I prefer him to most of the backend starters on the FA market and at that salary, he would also be a suitable long man in the bullpen. Thoughts?

 

There' s no way he reproduces his 20% HR/FB rate. Given that the team doesn't have a 5th starter right now, I'd absolutely take Fiers at 1/6 or whatever he'll make.

[glory]

The Astros are offering up Mike Fiers and his projected 5.7 mil salary for a bag of balls. He saw a spike in home runs last year, but is otherwise relatively unchanged from past years. I prefer him to most of the backend starters on the FA market and at that salary, he would also be a suitable long man in the bullpen. Thoughts?

 

I would be fine with him as a 5th or 6th starter. Looks like his velocity stayed the same, GB% stayed the same, fewer line drives, less hard contact/more soft contact, but just gave up an unusual amount of home runs. Seems like a pretty solid buy low option. With two years of control left, and 1/5.7 as the projected salary, he would be a pretty decent pick up if it cost nothing.

[Brownie19]

The Astros are offering up Mike Fiers and his projected 5.7 mil salary for a bag of balls. He saw a spike in home runs last year, but is otherwise relatively unchanged from past years. I prefer him to most of the backend starters on the FA market and at that salary, he would also be a suitable long man in the bullpen. Thoughts?

 

Why are the Astros looking to dump him? Salary?

 

He reminds me a lot of Estrada.

[KingKat]

Why are the Astros looking to dump him? Salary?

 

He reminds me a lot of Estrada.

 

He doesn't have options and I guess they don't have plans for him but I don't really get why they would treat him as a non-asset.

[Maahfaace]

There' s no way he reproduces his 20% HR/FB rate. Given that the team doesn't have a 5th starter right now, I'd absolutely take Fiers at 1/6 or whatever he'll make.

 

I woiukd assume the juicy balls are going to make these types of HR/FB rates more frequent. I'd still be all over this if the Astros return wasn't much.

[KingKat]

I woiukd assume the juicy balls are going to make these types of HR/FB rates more frequent. I'd still be all over this if the Astros return wasn't much.

 

Hum... Yeah HR/FB is probably up significantly across the board. That's bad news for Estrada among others.

[burlingtonbandit]

Wasn't league avg 13% last year?

[Grant77]

Why are the Astros looking to dump him? Salary?

 

He reminds me a lot of Estrada.

 

MLBTR implies that they are considering a non-tender for Fiers.

 

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Mike-Fiers-the-Astros-only-non-tender-candidate-12393199.php

Edited November 30, 2017 by Grant77

[Spanky99]

MLBTR implies that they are considering a non-tender for Fiers.

 

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Mike-Fiers-the-Astros-only-non-tender-candidate-12393199.php

 

Wow... the Birds would be crazy not to try and get him, definite yes.

[Abomination]

Hum... Yeah HR/FB is probably up significantly across the board. That's bad news for Estrada among others.

 

Hard to say how much it will affect Estrada. That changeup has batters taking weird, off-balance swings. It might affect him a lot less than most guys, even though he produces a lot of flies.

[Daniel Labude]

Wow. Miami expected to accept SF offer of Panik, Beede, Shaw fpr Stanton. We really should outbid that offer and get him. Alford, Reid-Foley, Pillar/Travis?

[jays_fever]

Wow. Miami expected to accept SF offer of Panik, Beede, Shaw fpr Stanton. We really should outbid that offer and get him. Alford, Reid-Foley, Pillar/Travis?

 

Giving up Alford and Pillar for a near 300M contract would be gross.

 

Stanton also doesnt want to come here

[glory]

Stanton has a NTC and close to $300m left on his contract.

 

Statkins wouldn't go near that contract, and Stanton wouldn't waive his NTC for Toronto.

 

The bigger question if Stanton goes to SF is how desperate does that make the Cardinals? Desperate enough to overpay for JD?

[G-Snarls]

Jon Morosi suggesting that that deal to SF would involve ~45M of salary relief

[Captain Adama]

That'd be funny, guy goes from one pitchers park to another.

[BTS]

Stanton just isn’t that valuable with the $300M commitment and opt outs. Glad Shatkins is passing.

[KingKat]

Jon Morosi suggesting that that deal to SF would involve ~45M of salary relief

 

Man... It really says something about that contract that they had to bundle that much money to get a decent return for Mike friggin' Stanton.

[glory]

Man... It really says something about that contract that they had to bundle that much money to get a decent return for Mike friggin' Stanton.

 

The Marlins got over $100m in value out of Stanton's first three years of his 13 year deal, and only paid him $30m combined over that span. Even if they throw in $45m to get rid of him, they still would have made out with a surplus, and gotten out of a contract that will surely look like s*** in a couple of years (if it doesn't already). This is the perfect time to sell on him. Marlins got lucky he won the MVP and had the year that he did.

[Ray]

Just what the Giants need. Another terrible contract. Replacing Matt Cains albatross of a contract with another.

[Krylian]

Stanton just isn’t that valuable with the $300M commitment and opt outs. Glad Shatkins is passing.

 

I like that you think the Jays were even in the game enough for them to pass.

[Dick_Pole]

Great move by the Giants assuming it gets done to become an 80 win team overnight in arguably baseball's toughest division right now. By the time things clear out on the top a bit, Stanton will conveniently be on the down trend of his career.

[TheHurl]

Just what the Giants need. Another terrible contract. Replacing Matt Cains albatross of a contract with another.

 

Stanton is sitting with an FA contract (if he were a Free Agent this year there would be several teams willing to pay him 10 years $300M. SF is paying the price (of 3 players) to go 10 years $255M...without having to compete in the negotiations of a contract. I think it's a very fair price to pay to land one of the elite bats in the game. Not to mention they are probably factoring in that the NL will have a DH within that contract. Lets go high here and say that he needs 35 WAR to pay for that contract....well 133 hitters in baseball history have put up at least 35 fWAR between the age of 28 and 38.

 

It's one of those break even at best type deals but Stanton can make a difference for the next 5 years if he can stay healthy...I would just question if San Fran is close enough right now (a lot like the Jays in 2013)

[John_Havok]

That'd be funny, guy goes from one pitchers park to another.

 

For Stanton there's no such thing as a pitchers park

[Grant77]

Rays are expected to non-tender Brad Miller if they can't find a trade partner for his 4.4 million salary. I believe the bat will return to acceptable levels, but he's a question mark on defense. The lefty bat and ability to play 2B/OF are intriguing to me.

[Brownie19]

Rays are expected to non-tender Brad Miller if they can't find a trade partner for his 4.4 million salary. I believe the bat will return to acceptable levels, but he's a question mark on defense. The lefty bat and ability to play 2B/OF are intriguing to me.

 

Yep. Good fit if you ask me

[Ray]

Stanton is sitting with an FA contract (if he were a Free Agent this year there would be several teams willing to pay him 10 years $300M. SF is paying the price (of 3 players) to go 10 years $255M...without having to compete in the negotiations of a contract. I think it's a very fair price to pay to land one of the elite bats in the game. Not to mention they are probably factoring in that the NL will have a DH within that contract. Lets go high here and say that he needs 35 WAR to pay for that contract....well 133 hitters in baseball history have put up at least 35 fWAR between the age of 28 and 38.

 

It's one of those break even at best type deals but Stanton can make a difference for the next 5 years if he can stay healthy...I would just question if San Fran is close enough right now (a lot like the Jays in 2013)

 

I look at it from the perspective of Stanton not really making that big of a difference for that team. You're still going to be rushing out Pence and/or Span everyday in the OF. They seem to be putting their eggs in one basket with Stanton.