Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[Laika]

I said that they were average, in fact I said average multiple times. Try reading next time. The difference ass-hat is that we aren't even average this year. Not by any measure. Average to good is a hell of a lot easier to fluke than bad to good is, which is actually exactly what the 2013 Red Sox did as we can see from 2014 when Shane f***ing Victorino stopped being one of the best players in baseball.

 

The 2012 Boston Red Sox went 69-93.

The 2012 Boston Red Sox had a pythag W-L of 74-88.

The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays still project to be over .500 and the second best team in the division for the rest of 2017.

 

Maybe I won't grace you with a detailed reply tonight because you just aren't smart enough to be worth it. My time is very valuable.

[Spanky99]

I just don't see the Birds being active either way, maybe as some have said before in taking on salary with spects coming our way. There's simply no value. Shapiro and Atkins have both said in the past they aren't moving multiple year contracts. It's not lip service either as this FO shoots from the hip. The only way that happens if it's an offer they can't refuse. Expect a quiet deadline, folks.

[Slade]

[Spanky99]

 

Hah... just posted this.

[P2F]

I'll say this: To go to any team and say not only do we want you to pay a 32-year-old Josh Donaldson $20 million + for 1 year, we also want your top prospects in return is a tough bargain no matter how good he is. The Donaldson trade looks good on paper and he's clearly worth top prospects, but sometimes trades on paper don't make practical sense.

 

3B is a stacked position around the league as it is, and it's true that Donaldson's bat will play anywhere, but a huge part of his value is derived from playing a premium position on the field.

 

Realistically, which team:

 

A) Has the prospects to afford Josh Donaldson?

Has the salary and payroll to afford Josh Donaldson?

C) Has a clear need at 3B or the infield?

D) Is going to be a contender in 2018?

 

Add that to the fact that Machado might also be available in the offseason who's younger and going to be cheaper. You've got Frazier and Moustakas as free agents who can play a competent 3rd for any contender. The stars seem to be aligning against trading Donaldson because the market might not be there. And if you realistically can't move Josh Donaldson for a return that makes sense, it only makes sense to try and contend and not waste his final year.

 

This isn't really directed at you, but I used your post as a reference point for this.

 

Just to touch on the potential Donaldson trade aspect for a moment, the only way the Jays consider dealing Donaldson before the deadline or in the offseason is if they are absolutely blown away by an offer. That is incredibly unlikely to happen, as he only has a year + of control left.

 

The Jays are still planning to compete next year, and losing Donaldson obviously severely lessens their chances of getting to the playoffs in 2018.

 

As it was theorized in the DDL thread, trading Donaldson for Devers just wouldn't be enough to offset the likelihood of a losing season next year with Donaldson gone.

 

Like I said, Shatkins would have to be blown away, trade value be damned.

[Terminator]

I don't trust Happ to be very good next year. I know losing yet another SP makes it that much harder to compete next season but with his salary off the books we should be able to use that money to replace him. I'd definitely shop him before the deadline to see what we could get for him. Maybe add Joe Smith to the package and we could actually net something decent.

[george09]

 

[justafan]

Baseball is all f***ed up. Why would he get a raise? While I like JD, he has significantly under-performed this year.

 

I'm estimating Donaldson gets close to ~$20 million next season, but that may be low. He is making ~$17 million this season. A $3-$4 million raise in arb4 sounds about right.

[Dr. Dinger]

Cause unions.

[glory]

I have a feeling we are targeting Profar. Can cover all infield positions and has two years of control left after this year. Value has gone to hell. Time to load up on failed top prospects and have them get some of that high performance Justin Smoak magic.

[burlingtonbandit]

Baseball is all f***ed up. Why would he get a raise? While I like JD, he has significantly under-performed this year.

 

I'm estimating Donaldson gets close to ~$20 million next season, but that may be low. He is making ~$17 million this season. A $3-$4 million raise in arb4 sounds about right.

 

Why do players who are worth $30-50 Million per year make only 500K on rookie contracts?

 

That's why I hate when people complain about a player not being worth the $ late in their career. Well yeah they might not be worth $30 Million but they were putting up 5 WAR and got paid nothing. And if the player wasn't a 1st round pick he hasn't made close to what they were worth.

[Jimcanuck]

Baseball is all f***ed up. Why would he get a raise? While I like JD, he has significantly under-performed this year.

 

I'm estimating Donaldson gets close to ~$20 million next season, but that may be low. He is making ~$17 million this season. A $3-$4 million raise in arb4 sounds about right.

 

Collective bargaining is capitalism. In this case, maximizing the return on unique baseball skills that people pay good money to see/watch.

[P2F]

I have a feeling we are targeting Profar. Can cover all infield positions and has two years of control left after this year. Value has gone to hell. Time to load up on failed top prospects and have them get some of that high performance Justin Smoak magic.

 

If he's cheap, I guess - there's still plausible upside. But he reeeaaalllly sucks.

[Jonn]

If he's cheap, I guess - there's still plausible upside. But he reeeaaalllly sucks.

 

The only upside with him is that he can't possibly be any worse

[glory]

If he's cheap, I guess - there's still plausible upside. But he reeeaaalllly sucks.

 

When I saw his name as a rumored trade option for Texas, I figured Atkins would be all over it. Should come cheap because he hasn't been good, but still young with control left, and the Jays could give him playing time for the rest of this season, and the next two years when Travis and Tulo both take their annual extended DL trips.

 

Not saying I want him, just saying it wouldn't surprise me if Atkins is after him.

[Jimcanuck]

When I saw his name as a rumored trade option for Texas, I figured Atkins would be all over it. Should come cheap because he hasn't been good, but still young with control left, and the Jays could give him playing time for the rest of this season, and the next two years when Travis and Tulo both take their annual extended DL trips.

 

Not saying I want him, just saying it wouldn't surprise me if Atkins is after him.

 

an argument could be made Gurriel Jr is better than Profar right now

[TBJ12]

Will some on this board never get over Profar? I still remember many here wanting to deal Bautista for Profar straight up while Jose was still in his prime.

[glory]

an argument could be made Gurriel Jr is better than Profar right now

 

Probably. I'm just making a prediction, not saying what I want to happen.

[JaysRap]

http://i.imgur.com/AXoqvDP.gif

 

Hot Rod. Well done.

[Brownie19]

I have a feeling we are targeting Profar. Can cover all infield positions and has two years of control left after this year. Value has gone to hell. Time to load up on failed top prospects and have them get some of that high performance Justin Smoak magic.

 

I'd like to get out hands on Brandon Nimmo as well. Not sure he'll ever get a chance in NY. Nimmon reminds me a bit of Tommy Pham.

[Brownie19]

an argument could be made Gurriel Jr is better than Profar right now

 

Why not have both?

[Brownie19]

The 2012 Boston Red Sox went 69-93.

The 2012 Boston Red Sox had a pythag W-L of 74-88.

The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays still project to be over .500 and the second best team in the division for the rest of 2017.

 

Maybe I won't grace you with a detailed reply tonight because you just aren't smart enough to be worth it. My time is very valuable.

 

http://i.imgur.com/jkzO7Py.gif

[Spanky99]

Will some on this board never get over Profar? I still remember many here wanting to deal Bautista for Profar straight up while Jose was still in his prime.

 

lol... and it was laughed off the board...

[flafson]

Who else do we have which is tradeable at the deadline beside Joe Smith and Zeek?

[TBJ12]

lol... and it was laughed off the board...

 

Lol.... no it wasn't. http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/417-What-would-it-take-to-pry-Profar-from-Texas?highlight=Profar

Edited July 25, 2017 by TBJ12

[metafour]

The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays still project to be over .500 and the second best team in the division for the rest of 2017.

 

Maybe I won't grace you with a detailed reply tonight because you just aren't smart enough to be worth it. My time is very valuable.

 

Ahahaha, look at this dumbass referencing Fangraph's broken ass projections. Wow you really got me, you are so smart!

 

I've been tracking Fangraph's projections for months and I'm still waiting for this mystical Blue Jays positive regression to becoming the best team in the AL East over night (yes, idiot, very often their projections spit out a number which gives us a higher projected rest of season winning percentage than even the Red Sox). Considering that their projection has been wrong all year long, maybe you should look at another projection system? Did your big brain think of that? How about PECOTA which projected the Rays as being better than us before the season even began (whoops, Fangraphs missed here as well)? PECOTA projects 75.3 wins to 86.7 losses, a far cry from Fangraphs' projection wherein one of the worst teams in the league is magically going to start playing like one of the best. Because that makes total sense.

 

I don't want to waste any more of your valuable time. You can continue spending hours fisting yourself and jerking off to 2015 playoff highlights.

[Brownie19]

http://i.imgur.com/q2e3whE.gif

[Dick_Pole]

Will some on this board never get over Profar? I still remember many here wanting to deal Bautista for Profar straight up while Jose was still in his prime.

 

Well...it's not like those people are seers. He was the #1 prospect at the time and the team looked like it was falling apart. The idea wasn't egregiously bad for a rebuild mindset. Had Profar turned into a 6 WAR player then it would have been a pretty good move.

 

The reason for getting him now is completely different. He would be a buy low candidate that sadly would still be an upgrade to what the Jays are currently trotting out at 2B. No one is saying to acquire Profar because he was 2013's top ranked prospect.

[Terminator]

At this point I'd prefer watching a ham sandwich get second base plate appearances over the perennial 200+ that go to Ryan Goins every year. So if Profar came for nothing I'd take him.

[Laika]

Ahahaha, look at this dumbass referencing Fangraph's broken ass projections. Wow you really got me, you are so smart!

 

I've been tracking Fangraph's projections for months and I'm still waiting for this mystical Blue Jays positive regression to becoming the best team in the AL East over night (yes, idiot, very often their projections spit out a number which gives us a higher projected rest of season winning percentage than even the Red Sox). Considering that their projection has been wrong all year long, maybe you should look at another projection system? Did your big brain think of that? How about PECOTA which projected the Rays as being better than us before the season even began (whoops, Fangraphs missed here as well)? PECOTA projects 75.3 wins to 86.7 losses, a far cry from Fangraphs' projection wherein one of the worst teams in the league is magically going to start playing like one of the best. Because that makes total sense.

 

I don't want to waste any more of your valuable time. You can continue spending hours fisting yourself and jerking off to 2015 playoff highlights.

 

It's pretty clear that you don't understand how any of this stuff works.

 

Hurrr durrr, a team didn't perform to their projections therefore projections are bad!

 

Even PECOTA thinks Toronto is a basically a .500 team for the rest of the season. That's a far cry from blow-it-up awful.

 

I think it's pretty cut that you are an angry mental midget who doesn't understand some pretty basic concepts underlying team true-talent, projection systems, projection efficacy, how to separate the signal from the noise, etc. So this is where I'll just bow out.

 

I hope you have enjoyed your posting experience on the BlueJaysMessageBoard. Have a nice time being a sports fan in the future. God bless you and your pets.