Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[justafan]

Its all pre-season until the all-star break.

 

But no team has ever made the playoffs from this position. I mean you can hope for a miracle, but reality suggests the window has closed and with so much uncertainty moving forward, these are legitimate discussions to have. Plus they are fun.

[Jimcanuck]

Waiting much longer and you'll get even less for whatever tradeable assets you may have. I'd rather deal a guy a year too early than a year too late.

 

This is true and they waited too long to move Bautista / Tulo. Pitching carried the team to the postseason last year. Without JB or Tulo, they still make it or come close, but more importantly are better set up for future success. Now, they will get virtually nada in return for those players.

[PGSC]

This is true and they waited too long to move Bautista / Tulo. Pitching carried the team to the postseason last year. Without JB or Tulo, they still make it or come close, but more importantly are better set up for future success. Now, they will get virtually nada in return for those players.

 

IF JB can come around a bit he has value I would think. Tulo's contract makes him borderline unmovable.

[saskjayfan]

But no team has ever made the playoffs from this position. I mean you can hope for a miracle, but reality suggests the window has closed and with so much uncertainty moving forward, these are legitimate discussions to have. Plus they are fun.

 

the 2011 redsox were 2 and 10 to open the season and finished 90 and 72 and missed the playoffs by one game after going through a collapse and ending the season 3 and 9 in their last 12 games.

[UKBlueJaysFan]

Be silly to trade anyone now. Wait for contending teams to overpay in June/July. Will make a killing on Donaldson. Estrada would be a rental for someone. Would struggle to shift Tulo and Martin due to their contracts. In terms of "win now", id give us every chance to win something by changing the hitting coach and take a new approach. In a couple months I'd bring up Pompey and Tellez (assuming he continues to play well), to bring in some youth and give them some real game action.

[Jays222]

Trading Pillar would make the major league team worse and likely not help the future major league teams. You're not going to get much for a defense only outfielder who is 28. He is a free agent at age 32 so Toronto can go year to year with him and non-tender him once his legs go. I don't see the point in subtracting a 2 or 3 WAR outfielder now unless you can get a haul.

[Brownie19]

Trading Pillar would make the major league team worse and likely not help the future major league teams. You're not going to get much for a defense only outfielder who is 28. He is a free agent at age 32 so Toronto can go year to year with him and non-tender him once his legs go. I don't see the point in subtracting a 2 or 3 WAR outfielder now unless you can get a haul.

 

That would be the point. If you can get a haul for a 3 WAR CFer during a rebuild - you trade him before his legs/defense start to decline. If you're rebuilding - you don't care if it makes the ML team worse.

[Brownie19]

the 2011 redsox were 2 and 10 to open the season and finished 90 and 72 and missed the playoffs by one game after going through a collapse and ending the season 3 and 9 in their last 12 games.

 

Key point in bold.

 

I mean obviously there's a chance the Jays right the ship - but it's extremely slim right now - probably even slimmer when we find out later today that Happ needs TJS. It would be extremely short sighted to make decisions based on the fact one team recently started this bad and 'almost' made the playoffs. These are real (and difficult) decisions the FO is soon going to have to make.

[Maine Jays]

Trade everyone except :

 

- Stroman

- Sanchez

- Osuna

 

If the Cubs came calling, offering Ian Happ for Osuna, I would hope Shatkins doesn't heed your advice.

My point is no one should be off limits. Especially if we receive an offer similar to the one Philly got for Giles.

[saskjayfan]

Key point in bold.

 

I mean obviously there's a chance the Jays right the ship - but it's extremely slim right now - probably even slimmer when we find out later today that Happ needs TJS. It would be extremely short sighted to make decisions based on the fact one team recently started this bad and 'almost' made the playoffs. These are real (and difficult) decisions the FO is soon going to have to make.

 

no one is saying that it isn't an uphill battle, but you're going to quit watching baseball because the season is done? All I read was that Pearce was a tremendous signing. Where is the lineup of people admitting they were wrong. Is Travis never going to hit again? Bautista is finished as a baseball player? Martin is going to hit sub .100 for the season? The type of team that could overcome a start like this is a team with lots of vets on it. I'm not going to bet my house that the jays will come back, but it's not out the realm of possibility that they do bounce back. Pearce, Travis, Martin and Bautista will all hit at some point. This team will have winning streaks...we just have to watch and see how far this takes the team until the trade deadline where decisions will have to be made.

[Jays222]

That would be the point. If you can get a haul for a 3 WAR CFer during a rebuild - you trade him before his legs/defense start to decline. If you're rebuilding - you don't care if it makes the ML team worse.

 

Agreed. I just don't see a team trading much for Pillar.

[Boxcar]

That would be the point. If you can get a haul for a 3 WAR CFer during a rebuild - you trade him before his legs/defense start to decline. If you're rebuilding - you don't care if it makes the ML team worse.

 

Teams don't pay for defense. Look at what Simmons returned, who is both a much better defender and on a very appealing contract.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

I don't think anyone wants it blown up yet. That conversation is still two months away.

 

True, but any GM worth his weight in salt has contemplated this scenario and has a list of "targets"

on his whiteboard!.....or so I hope!

[burlingtonbandit]

Teams don't pay for defense. Look at what Simmons returned, who is both a much better defender and on a very appealing contract.

 

I think that's changing. KK and Inciarte just got extensions this past offseason and while some teams don't believe in defense as much a lot more teams do now than when Simmons was traded.

[saskjayfan]

Key point in bold.

 

I mean obviously there's a chance the Jays right the ship - but it's extremely slim right now - probably even slimmer when we find out later today that Happ needs TJS. It would be extremely short sighted to make decisions based on the fact one team recently started this bad and 'almost' made the playoffs. These are real (and difficult) decisions the FO is soon going to have to make.

 

It should also be noted that the second wildcard was added in 2012. Given what the Redsox did in 2011 after starting 2 and 10 they would have made the playoffs given the current format.

[Brownie19]

It should also be noted that the second wildcard was added in 2012. Given what the Redsox did in 2011 after starting 2 and 10 they would have made the playoffs given the current format.

 

Holy s*** - like always, you're missing the point.

[saskjayfan]

Holy s*** - like always, you're missing the point.

 

the sky is falling. I get it. Panic and run, panic and run.

[Dick_Pole]

But no team has ever made the playoffs from this position. I mean you can hope for a miracle, but reality suggests the window has closed and with so much uncertainty moving forward, these are legitimate discussions to have. Plus they are fun.

 

I love these justifications to throw away the season because no team in baseball has ever come back from 2-10 to win something in 140+ years. For most of baseball's existence only one team each league made the playoffs, then only 2. It's been 4+ for the past 22 years and 5 for the past 5. It's not a fair comparison.

 

Even if this wasn't the case, the computer simulations estimate an 18% chance that the Jays make the playoffs even after this bad start. That's still about as good or better than a dozen other teams. Past bad starts which have absolutely no cause-and-effect relationship to the Jays' situation right now be damned. It is WAY too early to write off the season.

[glory]

Blue Jays fans are bandwagon fans. They'll leave when times are rough but clearly will come back when the team is winning. We have seen it. I agree, start the rebuild now so that by the time Vlad comes up they won't waste his prime like they did with so many other players in the 90's/00's/10's by being mediocre when the situation called for a punt.

[Bobthe4th]

Blue Jays fans are bandwagon fans. They'll leave when times are rough but clearly will come back when the team is winning.

 

That's not unique to the Jays though, any baseball team that is playing badly is going to experience a drop in attendance.

 

For a lot of people live sport is entertainment, and there's nothing wrong with that.

[Dick_Pole]

Blue Jays fans are bandwagon fans. They'll leave when times are rough but clearly will come back when the team is winning. We have seen it. I agree, start the rebuild now so that by the time Vlad comes up they won't waste his prime like they did with so many other players in the 90's/00's/10's by being mediocre when the situation called for a punt.

 

Yes, because building a team around the assumption that one 18 year old is going to be a mega-star in 3-4 years is solid reasoning. I'd rather build around the window of Josh Donaldson because at least you know what you got. AA and Shapiro to this point generally had the right mindset. It's just that it's looking less likely that they would be as successful as we all first hoped.

[metafour]

I love these justifications to throw away the season because no team in baseball has ever come back from 2-10 to win something in 140+ years. For most of baseball's existence only one team each league made the playoffs, then only 2. It's been 4+ for the past 22 years and 5 for the past 5. It's not a fair comparison.

 

Even if this wasn't the case, the computer simulations estimate an 18% chance that the Jays make the playoffs even after this bad start. That's still about as good or better than a dozen other teams. Past bad starts which have absolutely no cause-and-effect relationship to the Jays' situation right now be damned. It is WAY too early to write off the season.

 

It comes down to simple semantics. History has shown that regardless of how many playoff spots there actually are, the rough number of wins needed to actually make the playoffs on a given season doesn't really change. Therefore the logic that there were less teams making the playoffs before and thus those comparisons are rendered irrelevant isn't exactly accurate. We are already frighteningly close to the point wherein it would take an elite pace throughout the remaining 9/10ths of the season just to hit that minimum number of wins. While you can say "anything is possible!" you also have to look at reality at which point you will realize quickly that this roster simply does not have the ability to go on any long-term prolonged run.

 

By the way; the computerized simulations aren't unanimous either. BaseballProspectus has the odds at only 10.4% for example.

[admin]

But no team has ever made the playoffs from this position. I mean you can hope for a miracle, but reality suggests the window has closed and with so much uncertainty moving forward, these are legitimate discussions to have. Plus they are fun.

 

Yeah but like I said, we're not a terrible team, just found our slump early on lol. And as others have pointed out there have been teams with one game better that have made the playoffs, so it's not like it would be that crazy turning it around over the next 150 games. But that being said with the talent in this league it's not going to be easy.

[Jimcanuck]

Yeah but like I said, we're not a terrible team, just found our slump early on lol. And as others have pointed out there have been teams with one game better that have made the playoffs, so it's not like it would be that crazy turning it around over the next 150 games. But that being said with the talent in this league it's not going to be easy.

 

No, not a terrible team. My assessment at the beginning was this team is a lot like the .500 teams of 1995-2012. Too many holes - everything would have to go right to win. This is why I had the lowest win total prediction - 82.

 

Give them a month, but don't wait much longer if rebuild is the decision, the deals to unload this team will take time to put together.

[Brownie19]

Yes, because building a team around the assumption that one 18 year old is going to be a mega-star in 3-4 years is solid reasoning. I'd rather build around the window of Josh Donaldson because at least you know what you got. AA and Shapiro to this point generally had the right mindset. It's just that it's looking less likely that they would be as successful as we all first hoped.

 

I think what some are saying is that window is closing fast. 2017 is all but a waste right now and that only leave us with 2018 before JD is gonzo.

[Brownie19]

I love these justifications to throw away the season because no team in baseball has ever come back from 2-10 to win something in 140+ years. For most of baseball's existence only one team each league made the playoffs, then only 2. It's been 4+ for the past 22 years and 5 for the past 5. It's not a fair comparison.

 

 

There were also fewer teams in the league "back in the day". As it was pointed out - the team will need to play some remarkable ball over the next 6 months to make the playoffs....all while missing their best player for what could be a month - maybe more. Add in the uncertainty of Sanchez and Happ - coupled with little to no SP'ing depth in the minors and it's going to be a daunting task. With JD probably leaving after 2018 - these are legitimate discussions to have as a fanbase.

[TheHurl]

True, but any GM worth his weight in salt has contemplated this scenario and has a list of "targets"

on his whiteboard!.....or so I hope!

 

I hope that all GM's worth their weight in salt has no whiteboard

[glory]

Yes, because building a team around the assumption that one 18 year old is going to be a mega-star in 3-4 years is solid reasoning. I'd rather build around the window of Josh Donaldson because at least you know what you got. AA and Shapiro to this point generally had the right mindset. It's just that it's looking less likely that they would be as successful as we all first hoped.

 

You're not rebuilding to build around Guerrero, you're rebuilding to actually have a group of young impact players who could come up around the same time to become the next core group.

 

Building around Donaldson for two more years is what Shapiro tried to do. If 2017 is a bust, then you have him for one more year before he either leaves or becomes a $200mm+ contract in his 30's where you don't really know how much longer he will be elite. I'd have no issues re-signing JD if the team was winning and the farm system was booming, but it doesn't look that way. Their best prospects are years away and the MLB roster is old. It will be damn impossible to build around JD under those circumstances.

[wk680]

Yes, because building a team around the assumption that one 18 year old is going to be a mega-star in 3-4 years is solid reasoning. I'd rather build around the window of Josh Donaldson because at least you know what you got. AA and Shapiro to this point generally had the right mindset. It's just that it's looking less likely that they would be as successful as we all first hoped.

 

I agree that assuming too much about Guerrero, who is still only in low A ball, is foolish. The more likely scenario is to assume that 3-4 of the current top young prospects in the organization and/or ones they may acquire in trades will form a young core to build a contending team around. BUT that may require a couple very rough down years that ownership is going to balk at. Won't they be more likely to tell the FO to keep patching the current leaky boat up rather than let it sink and build a new one? Or maybe a half-way rebuild will be enough and they can contend again in 2019 with a mix of youth and some current vets like Tulo and Morales still there.

[Daniel Labude]

You're not rebuilding to build around Guerrero, you're rebuilding to actually have a group of young impact players who could come up around the same time to become the next core group.

 

Building around Donaldson for two more years is what Shapiro tried to do. If 2017 is a bust, then you have him for one more year before he either leaves or becomes a $200mm+ contract in his 30's where you don't really know how much longer he will be elite. I'd have no issues re-signing JD if the team was winning and the farm system was booming, but it doesn't look that way. Their best prospects are years away and the MLB roster is old. It will be damn impossible to build around JD under those circumstances.

 

If they could get him to sign a 5 year contract....it could be possible