General 2017 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[5minutesforframing]

You shouldn't go into the season with any of the young guys penciled in as starters. Have them in AAA as depth. Its been barely a week and a half for them in the Majors, don't forget Urena was crap all year.

 

But what about if the starters are replacement-level atrocities?

[glory]

I think having Teoscar starting in RF would be fine. He should provide solid defense and baserunning and he's got 20 homers across all his levels this year. I think he's probably good enough. He can also serve as the backup CF which would allow the team to carry Zeke as the 4th OF. Alford and Urena should be in AAA though to start.

 

Yeah I agree with this. You can live with Teoscar's growing pains as long as they go out and get a LF/RF (whichever corner Hernandez doesn't play) in trade or free agency. Jays need to start having some young cheap position players on the roster. Hernandez doesn't need more AAA time. He's ready. Whether he turns out to be any good or not is the question.

[burlingtonbandit]

But what about if the starters are replacement-level atrocities?

 

Well the Jays intentions are to make the playoffs next year. You don't not trade Donaldson then stick Hernandez and Alford out there in starting roles (Likely around replacement level at this stage given their rookies).

 

We all saw what happened with Pompey.

Edited September 12, 2017 by burlingtonbandit

[glory]

Well the Jays intentions are to make the playoffs next year. You don't not trade Donaldson then stick Hernandez and Alford out there in starting roles (Likely around replacement level at this stage given their rookies).

 

We all saw what happened with Pompey.

 

Hernandez is turning 25 soon and has spent a bunch of time in AAA. Pompey was fast tracked to the bigs at 21 and then handed a starting spot because AA didn't know what depth was. If Teoscar starts in the OF in '18, then Alford, Pompey (if he's still alive), and someone like Davis or Fields or Ceciliani or whoever will be in the Buffalo OF. The depth there is actually pretty decent. Just start Hernandez and sign or trade for a more established outfielder to play the other corner. Puts less pressure on Teoscar and adds even more depth.

[Brownie19]

Well the Jays intentions are to make the playoffs next year. You don't not trade Donaldson then stick Hernandez and Alford out there in starting roles (Likely around replacement level at this stage given their rookies).

 

We all saw what happened with Pompey.

 

You don't decide the course of future prospects based on 1 case study man. That's dumn.

[burlingtonbandit]

Blue Jays 2018 Schedule is out. Home Opener in March at 3:37 vs the Yankees on a Thursday.

[wamco]

wasn't urena s*** in the minors...

 

Like 650 ops with questions about his D.... But some stat probably shows he was good

[Brownie19]

Like 650 ops with questions about his D.... But some stat probably shows he was good

 

Actually, there's not. His best stat might be his age.

[Abomination]

Like 650 ops with questions about his D.... But some stat probably shows he was good

 

There's probably some stuff they wanted him to work on with the MLB coaches, and then carry it forward into winter ball to reinforce it.

[43211234]

Blue Jays 2018 Schedule is out. Home Opener in March at 3:37 vs the Yankees on a Thursday.

 

Also of note, Saturday games are going back to 4:07 starts.

[wamco]

Actually, there's not. His best stat might be his age.

 

Right . And that has got him this far. Not sure how he earned a trip to aaa to start next year. He'll be traded this offseason

[Bobthe4th]

Carlos Ramirez - 31 games in 2017 across AA / AAA / MLB, 0.00 ERA - pretty impressive.

 

Hopefully we've found another bullpen piece for 2018.

[THANOS]

Carlos Ramirez - 31 games in 2017 across AA / AAA / MLB, 0.00 ERA - pretty impressive.

 

Hopefully we've found another bullpen piece for 2018.

 

The deception is real for sure lol. He blows ppl away with 91-93 heat and they have no chance at the Slider.

[jaysblue]

Carlos Ramirez - 31 games in 2017 across AA / AAA / MLB, 0.00 ERA - pretty impressive.

 

Hopefully we've found another bullpen piece for 2018.

 

Relievers come out of nowhere all the time. Shows you that sometimes you don't need to spend so much money on middle relievers. Jays have always done a good job at developing cheap BP arms. Might be a bullpen piece for 2018.

[Bobthe4th]

Relievers come out of nowhere all the time. Shows you that sometimes you don't need to spend so much money on middle relievers. Jays have always done a good job at developing cheap BP arms. Might be a bullpen piece for 2018.

 

Yeah definitely, unless you're signing one of the 3 or 4 truly elite lock down relievers, it's not worth spending much on the bullpen

 

I completely expect Tepera to be terrible next year, and guess who's back from a year long injury - Bo Schultz! it'd be nice if he was the next random reliever to have a good year haha.

[Olerud363]

Actually, there's not. His best stat might be his age.

 

He wasn't just dropped by the stork into double a. Urena has an entire career you can look at, he's performed better other years.

 

A guy can hit between .250 and .300 just by luck. One of the interesting things Bill James did was simulate thousands of seasons for mlb players, guy like Wade Boggs, and Wilie Mays, randomly had .250 seasons... and wait, they randomly did that in real life too!

 

The conclusion was that, the bad Boggs season (1992) was random. Vernon Wells had bad and good seasons, in the majors, in the minors.

 

So Urena is a .270 .310 .400 minor league hitter.

 

It would be unnussual if he hit exactly that every year. It goes up, it goes down, he's only 21.

 

Kind of like Jay Bruce. Jay Bruce is bad for a couple of years and everybody assumes it's a thing, and not just normal variation.

[Brownie19]

He wasn't just dropped by the stork into double a. Urena has an entire career you can look at, he's performed better other years.

 

A guy can hit between .250 and .300 just by luck. One of the interesting things Bill James did was simulate thousands of seasons for mlb players, guy like Wade Boggs, and Wilie Mays, randomly had .250 seasons... and wait, they randomly did that in real life too!

 

The conclusion was that, the bad Boggs season (1992) was random. Vernon Wells had bad and good seasons, in the majors, in the minors.

 

So Urena is a .270 .310 .400 minor league hitter.

 

It would be unnussual if he hit exactly that every year. It goes up, it goes down, he's only 21.

 

Kind of like Jay Bruce. Jay Bruce is bad for a couple of years and everybody assumes it's a thing, and not just normal variation.

 

I was just making a joke, but my concern is he's only hit in the lower levels. He's been trash in over 680 PA's in AA so far. He isn't a patient hitter, nor does he have much speed. There just aren't many stats that suggest he'll be anything more than Ryan Goins. In fact, Goins was a significantly better hitter than Urena in AA over approximately the same number of PA's.

 

He's just on a heater right now (BABIP at .458).

[THANOS]

Yeah definitely, unless you're signing one of the 3 or 4 truly elite lock down relievers, it's not worth spending much on the bullpen

 

I completely expect Tepera to be terrible next year, and guess who's back from a year long injury - Bo Schultz! it'd be nice if he was the next random reliever to have a good year haha.

 

If he develops a strikeout pitch and regains that upper 90s heat, it's a decent possibility.

[Ray]

Tepera and Leone has been pleasant surprises this season. Both of them have logged a lot of innings already though. I would consider using them less to end off the season just so that they have more time to rest up for next season .

[G-Snarls]

Chances of retaining Anderson on a 1 year deal for 2018?

 

Think anyone else blinks and offers multiple guaranteed years?

[Ray]

I wonder if this front office looks into any extensions this offseason. Locking up young players to team friendly contracts was Shapiro's MO in Cleveland. Stroman would be the only guy it would make sense to talk extension with, but he's making good money in arb and can definitely hold out until FA.

[jaysblue]

Chances of retaining Anderson on a 1 year deal for 2018?

 

Think anyone else blinks and offers multiple guaranteed years?

 

Probably could be had on a 1 year deal with a club option at most for 2019. As long as you guarantee him a spot in the rotation on Opening Day, there is a good chance he could be resigned. I don't mind having him as a No. 5 starter (could do worse). The Blue Jays better make sure they have a decent arm waiting in the wings (Biagini, or someone else in AAA) that could pitch in case Anderson hits the DL. Teams won't be lining up to sign Anderson, so I don't see it tough bringing him back especially if you guarantee him a spot in the rotation.

 

Liriano is a FA as well. Even bringing him back on a cheap 1 year deal as a No. 5 starter wouldn't be the worst thing.

[jaysblue]

Tepera and Leone has been pleasant surprises this season. Both of them have logged a lot of innings already though. I would consider using them less to end off the season just so that they have more time to rest up for next season .

 

Both could end up s***ing the bed in 2018. I hope not though. You never know though with relievers, they're extremely volatile. Eg. Jeremy Accardo, Brandon League, Jesse Carlson, Shawn Camp etc.

[Jimcanuck]

I wonder if this front office looks into any extensions this offseason. Locking up young players to team friendly contracts was Shapiro's MO in Cleveland. Stroman would be the only guy it would make sense to talk extension with, but he's making good money in arb and can definitely hold out until FA.

 

I fully expect an extension for Stro this offseason.

[glory]

Chances of retaining Anderson on a 1 year deal for 2018?

 

Think anyone else blinks and offers multiple guaranteed years?

 

He won't get more than one year so there's a chance. Depends on how much he likes the Jays org.

[Olerud363]

I was just making a joke, but my concern is he's only hit in the lower levels. He's been trash in over 680 PA's in AA so far. He isn't a patient hitter, nor does he have much speed. There just aren't many stats that suggest he'll be anything more than Ryan Goins. In fact, Goins was a significantly better hitter than Urena in AA over approximately the same number of PA's.

 

He's just on a heater right now (BABIP at .458).

 

I agree he's just getting lucky right now. I'm just saying, people make to much out of 20 point swings in batting average... let's say his true talent level is .280... he might hit .260 one year, .300 the next...

 

He's young, he's hit 42 doubles 8 triples in aa... in his full season (159 games) worth of aa at bats. Shows some signs of hitting the ball hard.

[Krylian]

He won't get more than one year so there's a chance. Depends on how much he likes the Jays org.

 

And how much they like him?

[Captain Adama]

When Anderson hits the DL.

[burlingtonbandit]

I fully expect an extension for Stro this offseason.

 

I doubt it. Already explored it last year so 1 year closer to FA and Stroman is already getting paid enough.

[Brownie19]

I agree he's just getting lucky right now. I'm just saying, people make to much out of 20 point swings in batting average... let's say his true talent level is .280... he might hit .260 one year, .300 the next...

 

He's young, he's hit 42 doubles 8 triples in aa... in his full season (159 games) worth of aa at bats. Shows some signs of hitting the ball hard.

 

I never look at average. I looked at his 73 wRC+, 5.4% walk rate and 0 SBs and threw up in my mouth a little.